I'm not worried. Apple has always had great strategic plannings.
It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.
Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.
That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.: We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.
For example:
My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district. Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used. The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.
The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans. Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation. But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it). Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.
Simply put: today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students. In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school: he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.
While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way. We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm. If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
....
Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.
That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity.
A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011
And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:
Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.
I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated.
Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.
As even your own figures show:
China's GDP: 6+
U.S. GDP: Barely 2
... That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.
I'm guessing those numbers are for growth? That's not how economies are measured, it's how growth and health of economies are measured, and is subject to caveats. GDP or GDP per Capita are how economies are measured, and the USA is well ahead on both measures.
Only for political purposes. Those looking at the economy and what it is doing look at GDP change rate.
GDP per capita of the U.S. and the Western world, is way ahead of China, and given that China's population growth has slowed, China has a smaller proportion of its population that has to support its aging population, a consequence of the One Child policy.
I'm not worried. Apple has always had great strategic plannings.
It does seem a great opportunity to buy more Apple stock.
Yes, the virus is increasingly under control in China and Apple could close all of their stores here and still sell products effectively through their online stores. So I think Apple is well positioned.
That is perhaps the lesson we need to learn here in the U.S.: We need to get less dependent on relying on store, school and office environments and encourage work from home as China did.
For example:
My 7th grade grandson is being taught pretty much the same way that I was taught 60 years ago -- even though he is in a very high performance school district. Essentially it is all classroom and teacher centric and rooted in paper and the same old #2 pencil we used. The only advance is the change from mimeograph to Xerox copies.
The school district is very expensive to operate with some teachers in 6 digit salaries with cadillac health and pension plans. Yet the technology is available to both bring down costs (a lot!) and improve education with a little automation. But the school district is dragging its feet (even though it and its residents can easily afford it). Perhaps there is just too much money being made with the status quo to rock that boat.
Simply put: today, there is no reason why computer based training could not enable students to learn from home while interacting with both the teacher and other students. In fact, that is precisely what my grandson does when he gets home from school: he immediately powers up his X-Box and plays "Madden" with his friends -- its a bit like we used to do outside face-to-face but instead being done sitting in front of a computer.
While I fully realize that being in school with teachers and other students has a number of substantial advantages, it should not be the only way. We need to modernize, grow and expand that paradigm. If we had, we would be better prepared to handle the looming Corona virus with far less impact (at least on education) along with a better, cheaper education system.
Who exactly will be purchasing Apple products online, given the hit China's economy has taken?
....
Since the Chinese economy continues to bubble along at about 3 times the rate of ours, their stock exchanges barely blipped, and their 5G rollout is well underway, I would guess around 1 1/2 billion or so...
No, you would be incorrect about the Chinese economy today:.
That data correlates with the creation of pollutants from fossil fuel sources, vehicles, coal fired power plants, and industrial facilities but also notes that it was preceded by the Lunar New Year Celebrations, which would have reduced industrial activity.
A link to China's Purchasing Manager Index, an indicator of manufacturing output:
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, below the 38.8 figure reported in November 2008
The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011
And here's a comparison of the U.S. versus China's GDP:
Given that the U.S. has a smaller 330m vs a 1,400m larger population for China, I don't think we are doing that badly, especially as China hasn't caught up yet, and the rate of growth is slowing as China's economy matures, so the 3x growth rate over the U.S. of 6% today, (if that is even accurate), is trending downward. The West dispersing some of the foreign manufacturing in China, a surety after COVID-19, will also have an impact on that growth rate.
I don't disagree with you about the U.S. response to a COVID-19 epidemic, as I have stated as much that the COVID-19 should be taken seriously, as well as that China's response was demonstrably slowed by the same lack of transparency and preparedness that the current Administration has demonstrated.
Unfortunately, the recent news today from Washington State is that COVID-19 had entered the U.S. even earlier than previously assumed.
As even your own figures show:
China's GDP: 6+
U.S. GDP: Barely 2
... That's about 3 times and its how economies are measured.
Yes, there was a brief dip -- the Shanghai dropped from 3100 to 2750 before popping back up to almost 3050. But, now its starting to drop again to 3,000 as the world's economy faulters.
As your Bloomberg figures show: China is scheduled to over take the U.S. as the world's leading economy (and already has as the leading trading nation). That's why Trump's primary goal in his battles with China was not jobs but Wall Street access to Chinese markets. Once he got that he started defending China and, coincidentally, the HongKong riots died down too. There are still some China haters on the far right beating the drums but they aren't getting a lot of love from Trump these days. He got what he wanted and cricket chirping doesn't bother him.
6+ is the supposed GDP growth rate, but no one believes it anymore as China's growth has been slowing down as it matures.
...
That was your first sentence and the last one I read. It said all I needed to know about your post which is basically:
"I will believe anything that is negative about China, but facts that show them in a good light I will call lies". It's the upside down world of both the far left and the far right.
But you are right that it is slowing: a few years back it was 10% and the rate has gradually and steadily been declining down to about 6% because, as you point out, it is harder to grow a larger economy at the same rate. But, at the same time, they have been shifting the drivers of the economy to shift it more towards services and internal consumption to provide a base that is more stable and less dependent on the whims and political winds blowing from other countries.
If you are one of those people that take the Chinese Government's data at face value, then you of course would be upset by my statement. Still, thanks for admitting what I have been stating, that China's growth is slowing. Given the hit that China has taken since the first of the year, it's possible that they will not see any growth at all this year.
I was talking slowing over the past decade -- not over the last quarter. The hit from the Corona virus, unless it rears its ugly head again, was transient. As the factories ramp up again they will running full bore making up for lost time. The one threatening to show no growth in 2020 is the U.S -- but Trump will threaten the Fed till they lower rates again which will keep the stock market from showing it and he will be able to claim that its the GREATEST economy ever in the history of the universe.
Added: Ooops! The Fed did just lower rates. This time by a full 1/2% which is the biggest single drop they've made since the 2008 Great Recession -- which just put us into negative real rates (Interest rate minus inflation). What is strange is that most agree that lowering interest rates will do little to stabilize an economy hit by shutdowns from an epidemic. Mostly it will simply prop up the stock market -- which is all Trump worries about. China has instead, focused on fiscal aid to help mostly small & medium sized business with their loans while they are struggling with cash flow shortfalls from the shutdowns & restrictions. Once again, China does the right thing while we do the political thing -- and then we'll complain that they cheated.
Comments
GDP per capita of the U.S. and the Western world, is way ahead of China, and given that China's population growth has slowed, China has a smaller proportion of its population that has to support its aging population, a consequence of the One Child policy.