A truly autonomous vehicle is generally accepted to be many, many years away (unless certain manufacturers are making it seem like it's a long way off but are hoping they can bring the day forward and surprise the market).
It is also generally accepted that such cars must not just sense their environment but communicate with it too.
For that to happen, the infrastructure needs to be in place and a communication standard needs to be agreed on. There are a few of those on the table and being developed. China is already implementing one variant in test areas of certain cities.
Then there is the legislative side of things which needs to cover exactly what is allowed and what isn't. I can't see a car without a mechanical steering option being allowed (at least out of the gate)
We are getting there but 2025 does sound somewhat optimistic unless the aim is for some kind of 'closed circuit' use which I think would be a logical first baby step.
The market for FSD isn't even born yet, it's very much anyone's game. (Tesla doesn't have it and is no more certain to lead this space than early automakers were in the era of ICE.)
Indeed!
I wonder if Apple's silicon+software integration capes will end up giving them a big advantage in this field, too.
The Waymo folks (and fans) contend that hardware isn't the issue, that it's all about software and data. They think that if they can drive a fleet of cars for hundreds of human lifetimes, record all that data, and pump it through their cloud, they'll solve the problem. Maybe so!
But it's interesting that human drivers don't work that way. Humans take about 25 years to get to a point where they are allowed to rent a car, and much of that time is spent doing things that have nothing to do with driving. Humans don't have lidar or radar, or even more than two cameras. They also don't get to share massive amounts of data with all the other humans. How do they do it? It would seem that it has something to do with their immense, energy efficient, and highly mobile cognitive abilities.
1) Bloomberg = 0% credibility. I don’t believe them already a pretty long time.
2) Although it seems like Apple is to late with its “Apple Car”, there’s something that we should not forget. Like always, Apple is following in this its main own principle (Steve Jobs’s legacy), which made it the company so successful: Developing an own software for an own developed hardware.
Apple won’t build a car for sale; that’s a ludicrous idea.
They’ll make the chip, sensors, and SW and sell those to automakers, rather than making the car itself.
Follows the CarPlay model, leverages the relationships and contacts they’ve made with CarPlay, and doesn’t have NEARLY the cost of entry manufacturing a car themselves would entail.
And what fool of an automobile manufacturer would take up Apple’s offerings in those areas? All that does is give Apple more leverage in the automotive market. CarPlay - sure. Anything do to with entertainment - sure. Processors and sensors related to the basic functions of an automobile - not a chance.
Any fool of an automobile manufacturer that wants a feasible autonomous vehicle without having to spend the research dollars themselves.
People said the same thing about the iPhone when Apple introduced that. Doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Apple.
Of course, it hinges completely on the actual autonomous capability. Nobody has yet demonstrated - despite extensive work - an actual fully autonomous capability. If Apple does show they can deliver such a capability, auto makers will line up to buy it from Apple. It's how monopolistic competition works.
Apple won’t build a car for sale; that’s a ludicrous idea.
They’ll make the chip, sensors, and SW and sell those to automakers, rather than making the car itself.
Follows the CarPlay model, leverages the relationships and contacts they’ve made with CarPlay, and doesn’t have NEARLY the cost of entry manufacturing a car themselves would entail.
Speaking of ludicrous ideas, yours is 100% wrong. It’s like you don’t even know Apple.
CarPlay is literally just an extension of the iPhone and is absolutely nothing like what you’re describing with Titan.
It's so good to have somebody in the forums who has so much knowledge about Apple that s/he can confidently say somebody is 100% wrong about a total rumor...
Well done.
If you knew anything about business, you'd understand the barriers to entry in automotive manufacturing are incredibly high, and the cost of entry is equally ridiculous. Tesla started in 2003 and didn't turn a full year's profit until 2020. Apple's not in the business of running losses in a business unit and impacting their share price.
The only way Apple gets into the manufacturing side is by partnering with an existing manufacturer, and that doesn't offer enough differentiation for them to do it. No manufacturer would allocate a portion of their capacity for the inevitable customization Apple would require for anything they put their marque on.
Comments
It is also generally accepted that such cars must not just sense their environment but communicate with it too.
For that to happen, the infrastructure needs to be in place and a communication standard needs to be agreed on. There are a few of those on the table and being developed. China is already implementing one variant in test areas of certain cities.
Then there is the legislative side of things which needs to cover exactly what is allowed and what isn't. I can't see a car without a mechanical steering option being allowed (at least out of the gate)
We are getting there but 2025 does sound somewhat optimistic unless the aim is for some kind of 'closed circuit' use which I think would be a logical first baby step.
I wonder if Apple's silicon+software integration capes will end up giving them a big advantage in this field, too.
The Waymo folks (and fans) contend that hardware isn't the issue, that it's all about software and data. They think that if they can drive a fleet of cars for hundreds of human lifetimes, record all that data, and pump it through their cloud, they'll solve the problem. Maybe so!
But it's interesting that human drivers don't work that way. Humans take about 25 years to get to a point where they are allowed to rent a car, and much of that time is spent doing things that have nothing to do with driving. Humans don't have lidar or radar, or even more than two cameras. They also don't get to share massive amounts of data with all the other humans. How do they do it? It would seem that it has something to do with their immense, energy efficient, and highly mobile cognitive abilities.
1) Bloomberg = 0% credibility. I don’t believe them already a pretty long time.
2) Although it seems like Apple is to late with its “Apple Car”, there’s something that we should not forget. Like always, Apple is following in this its main own principle (Steve Jobs’s legacy), which made it the company so successful: Developing an own software for an own developed hardware.
This is a huge advantage.... full with surprises
So, we don’t know yet, what we don’t know.......
People said the same thing about the iPhone when Apple introduced that. Doesn't seem to have worked out too badly for Apple.
Of course, it hinges completely on the actual autonomous capability. Nobody has yet demonstrated - despite extensive work - an actual fully autonomous capability. If Apple does show they can deliver such a capability, auto makers will line up to buy it from Apple. It's how monopolistic competition works.
Well done.
If you knew anything about business, you'd understand the barriers to entry in automotive manufacturing are incredibly high, and the cost of entry is equally ridiculous. Tesla started in 2003 and didn't turn a full year's profit until 2020. Apple's not in the business of running losses in a business unit and impacting their share price.
The only way Apple gets into the manufacturing side is by partnering with an existing manufacturer, and that doesn't offer enough differentiation for them to do it. No manufacturer would allocate a portion of their capacity for the inevitable customization Apple would require for anything they put their marque on.