China government iPhone ban will have almost no effect on sales, says analyst
Wedbush's Dan Ives has commented on the reported China government iPhone sales ban, and he feels that not only is it just a small speed bump on the road, but sales in the country will be up in 2024.
iPhone 14 Pro with Dynamic Island
In an appearance on CNBC, Ives said that the reports that have hammered Apple's stock price aren't of much consequence. Saying that the reports' "bark is worse than the bite," Ives goes on to quantify the impact of the ban.
In a worst case, Ives is expecting maybe a sales impact from the ban to be about 500,000 units. This is relative to what he says is 45 million units sold in total in China.
And, he believes that given the relatively weak sales in the 2023 sales year, China will probably be up year-over-year on the strength of the iPhone 15 lineup.
Conventional wisdom suggests that a ban, if it is happening officially, may be a move to boost the home-grown Huawei's first 5G phone, the first model released by the company since US sanctions bit. Sources in at least three ministries and government bodies have confirmed the ban in a report earlier on Thursday, one source said they had not been given a deadline to comply.
Another source in one of the ministries affected reported have had no such order, and that he or she was currently continuing to use an iPhone. The source, said to be from a regulatory body, said that staff had not been told to cease using iPhones. They were, though, told that they would be held responsible should any issues arise because of their iPhone use.
We discussed the low impact as a probability when we started talking about this story on Wednesday, and Ives added more color to the concept. The governmental and state-owned business purchases remains a small percent of the total purchases in China, and it's not clear how many devices Huawei will be able to ship on the high-end to compete with the iPhone.
Ives maintains Wedbush's $230 Apple stock price target.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
I also understand Huawei is indirectly funded lot by Chinese government. Against that, Huawei does not have choice but give front and back door access to anyone using Huawei phone where PRC and Chinese Spy agencies can keep eye on people's communications. I am sure that is happening with every communication gears made by Chinese companies but Huawei is a innocent face to world for Chinse spy agencies.
The 'dynamic island' is only an animation. Both Honor and Huawei have been using animations around notches and cutouts for years now. Basically just to disguise those elements. What Apple did was take that idea and expand on it.
Satellite communication was already part of some Huawei models and they connect to high orbit satellites which is more challenging on a technological level.
The Mate 60 Pro actually contains a seperate chip to handle satellite voice calling to high orbit geo stationary satellites but I believe there is a subscription fee and a short period for the handshaking to take place. Probably a non-issue for anyone who needs to use that functionality.
Huawei has absolutely zero patent restrictions on the use of 5G. In fact, it receives between 2 and 3 dollars for every 5G phone that is sold through patent royalties. Apple is paying Huawei as iPhones now have 5G.
The 5G issue for Huawei was a component sourcing issue. It sourced a key component (RF BAW filter) from a US company which could not supply Huawei due to sanctions.
As part of its supply chain component rejigging, Huawei can now source things like that filter from a Chinese company and not depend on a US company.
Huawei is not indirectly financed by the Chinese government. It is directly part funded by the Chinese government and many other entities across the world. It is no different to how any company anywhere is partly financed. Loans and repayment of loans.
There are no front or back doors beyond what are legally required by legislation in any country.
If such a nefarious usage was in place the US government would have been waving it around the world.
Truth is, the US has not been able to provide a single shred of evidence to support its claims. Years of accusations but nothing to prove anything.
/S
Even if this alleged ban in China costs Apple a few hundred thousand phone sales, how many of them will be made up in the newest big market: India? This is the first launch where Apple has a real presence in that country: web, stores (okay, just two of them..for now), and production.
My bet- in a few years, India will be buying more iPhones than China regardless of what the Chinese government says or does.
Here is a fact you probably know, but won’t admit — the only reason huawei is still around is because they either stole IP or were handed IP from the chinese government. No innovation — only stealing and copying.
Do you really think anyone believes the trash you or your government spews out?
You have waded in making some big claims but I'm sure you cannot support a single one of those with anything that holds up to scrutiny.
Ironically you will even claim this is propaganda but when you are forming an opinion it always a good idea to listen to the accused.
https://www.huawei.com/en/media-center/multimedia/videos/2022/fact-huawei-isnt-built-on-chinese-state-funding
India's new high speed rail initiative covers just 2 cities (Mumbai and Ahmedabad). And Ahmedabad is not a major city. It was planned only because it is the native place of India's current Prime Minister. There is no plan for high speed rail connectivity for other major cities (New Delhi, Kolkotta, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad) yet. And they won't be getting high speed rail connectivity anytime soon (a decade or more). There are lot of challenges (land acquistion, funding, ROI etc) to execute such projects in India.
Not sure what that is about, but if it's just about high speed rail, you can specifically thank Elon Musk for sidelining that in California.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/elon-musk-hyperloop-rail-17486877.php#:~:text=Musk%20reportedly%20told%20his%20biographer,too%20slow%2C%20outdated%20and%20expensive.
Elon's narcissism, but not yet at its peak, at least to date, which would come with the purchase of Twitter.
or…
”Nothing to see here, move along”, for those who insist that the world is flat and everything is black/white; good/evil…