Apple Vision Pro could take four generations to perfect

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  • Reply 21 of 31
    danoxdanox Posts: 3,271member
    Xed said:
    danox said:
    The Apple Vision is by far the best of it type on the market today nothing else comes close and the more crying about price and the little features that have nothing to do with the core functionally (the way it integrates with Mac OS) means Apple has hit it out of the park, don't like it don't buy it get something else if you can.

    The Apple Vision core features software/hardware are as low as they will ever be Apple won't be taking anything out however the M3,M4,M5 and the R2,R3,R4 versions are coming and they won't be 1500 dollars and something else will be added in time a in house Apple modem. I don't think Apple is interested in cheap, they are interested in being the best at the upper end of the market.
    I can see Apple using an M2+R1, possibly with a smaller lithography so call them revision 2 SoCs, in a couple years that would be priced much lower than $3500 and simply called Apple Vision or Apple Vision SE. A great experience with tried-and-true performance, yet a couple years behind the latest-and-greatest AVP being offered.

    Apple being a vertical computer software/hardware gives them so many options it's utterly ridiculous that why I'm not concerned about them iterating the hell out of the Apple Vision just methodically grinding away the competition.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 31
    jdwjdw Posts: 1,414member
    Xed said:
    jdw said:
    I don't see how Apple can possibly address "weight" in 4 generations.  Have they addressed weight with any other product since Apple's inception, such that they made a product so FEATHER LIGHT no one would ever complain about wearing it on their face?  No!  Somebody out there will ALWAYS complain about weight as long as a thing is worn on one's face!  And when will VISION PRO not be worn on the face?  Well, when Apple comes out with the Apple HoloDeck version, that's when!  And I assure you, that HoloDeck version won't be out in my lifetime.

    Therefore, people who complain about weight will just need to get over it because it's not going away anytime soon.  You can make it lighter than now, but never light enough to satisfy the "it weighs too much" people.
    Addressing weight and making something so no could possibly complain are two very different things. One is very likely to happen based on Apple's long history of released product and the natural state of technology, and the other is very unlikely based on the old adage that "you can't please everyone."
    The fact the sky is blue and the fact the moon is white are also "two very different things," but the fact remains you can use the two in the same conversation.  So in light of that, I don't follow your argument here.  True, you also say that that "Apple having a long history" indicates it can address weight, but all that means is Apple could shave a couple insignificant grams here and there.  Your remarks are not specific and just taking guesses that future weight reductions will "be enough."  But what you wrote doesn't specifically say this: "Apple's history proves it will shave off so much weight over time that the weight issue will no longer be an issue at all."  You perhaps eluded to that without saying it, but your statements are vague enough to generate speculation about what you really mean.

    What I wrote was clear.  I personally don't think Apple can shave off enough weight to please the TECH MEDIA who perpetually complain about it being too heavy or tiring after an hour of use.  But even when it comes to end users of VISION PRO (who are not really than plenteous right now), we must consider the ladies who may dislike a heaving thing on their face even more than men.  And we must consider people who aren't into wearables much at all.  For example, I don't wear any watch at all because I don't like things on my wrists.

    I personally DO NOT think Apple can make a person who otherwise does not want something on their face to want it even with modest weight reductions.

    I personally DO NOT think Apple can shave off enough weight to please a meaningful number of users, or people in the tech media, to start giving the tech the praise it is due.  I feel there will always be a large number of these weight-complainers who will bring more attention to their complaints about weight than the ground breaking tech Apple has brought to the market.

    I have a pair of plastic eye glasses with thin lenses and very thin frames, but I still don't like wearing them because I dislike things on my face.  (Yes, my eyes are still pretty good without the glasses, so it's not like I must wear them.)  So even if you made them lighter, would it please me?  No, it would not.

    It's all about this BEING ON YOUR FACE, my friend.  So your argument (or so I'm guessing based on what you wrote) that Apple can shave off more weight over time (due to their history, somehow) and thereby please a huge number of people (even if that isn't "everyone") makes two huge assumptions that: (1) the weight loss over time will be enough, and (2) that most would-be users won't mind having something on their face.

    I'm not really praising Apple or bashing Apple here. It's just a living reality.  The whole tech media seems obsessed with weight, but I don't see that issue vanishing anytime soon. And that is because it all centers on having something ON YOUR FACE.  Even people who mind that less than others (e.g., people who wear eyeglasses and have since a child and therefore don't notice them as much as people like me), might mind a COMPARATIVELY HEAVIER item on their face.  But practically speaking, can Apple, even 20 years hence, make a VISION PRO that weighs as little as thin plastic eyeglasses which have thin plastic frames?  The PHYSICS answer "no" to that question.  As a result, I wish to repeat the closing remarks I made in my previous post...

    Therefore, people who complain about weight will just need to get over it because it's not going away anytime soon.  You can make it lighter than now, but never light enough to satisfy the "it weighs too much" people.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 31
    XedXed Posts: 2,816member
    jdw said:
    Xed said:
    jdw said:
    I don't see how Apple can possibly address "weight" in 4 generations.  Have they addressed weight with any other product since Apple's inception, such that they made a product so FEATHER LIGHT no one would ever complain about wearing it on their face?  No!  Somebody out there will ALWAYS complain about weight as long as a thing is worn on one's face!  And when will VISION PRO not be worn on the face?  Well, when Apple comes out with the Apple HoloDeck version, that's when!  And I assure you, that HoloDeck version won't be out in my lifetime.

    Therefore, people who complain about weight will just need to get over it because it's not going away anytime soon.  You can make it lighter than now, but never light enough to satisfy the "it weighs too much" people.
    Addressing weight and making something so no could possibly complain are two very different things. One is very likely to happen based on Apple's long history of released product and the natural state of technology, and the other is very unlikely based on the old adage that "you can't please everyone."
    The fact the sky is blue and the fact the moon is white are also "two very different things," but the fact remains you can use the two in the same conversation.  So in light of that, I don't follow your argument here.  True, you also say that that "Apple having a long history" indicates it can address weight, but all that means is Apple could shave a couple insignificant grams here and there.  Your remarks are not specific and just taking guesses that future weight reductions will "be enough."  But what you wrote doesn't specifically say this: "Apple's history proves it will shave off so much weight over time that the weight issue will no longer be an issue at all."  You perhaps eluded to that without saying it, but your statements are vague enough to generate speculation about what you really mean.

    [...]
    Then let's address just two of the illogical comments you made...

    1) You said, "I don't see how Apple can possibly address 'weight' in 4 generations." I then pointed out that weight is addressed within 4 generations of most (if not all) of their products. You can pretty much throw a stone in any direction to find an example of this.

    2) You then said, "Have they addressed weight with any other product since Apple's inception, such that they made a product so FEATHER LIGHT no one would ever complain about wearing it on their face?  No!  Somebody out there will ALWAYS complain about weight." I then pointed out that someone complaining doesn't mean that weight hasn't been addressed, hasn't been greatly improved, or isn't best in class. Based on your comments you seem to be one of those people that will always complain about something no matter how much it improves.
    edited February 11 williamlondon
  • Reply 24 of 31
    dewmedewme Posts: 5,670member
    Perfection is in the eyes of the beholder. It often comes down to the benefits and utility versus the risks and potential costs due to downtime or service interruption. In highly competitive industries there are always those who want to be on the leading edge and start evaluating new products that are known to be far from perfection. They may not plug the new stuff into applications that could damage their bottom line, but they do want to stay current so they can act quickly when new opportunities arise, some of which are only possible because of the use of new tools and technologies they've gotten their hands dirty with as early adopters. On the other hand there are always those individuals and organizations that are very risk-averse and in some cases required to be risk-averse by overseers, regulators, or their own ingrained business/personal culture, e.g., pharmaceuticals.

    I think the same benefit-vs-risk approach applies to individuals who are contemplating the acquisition of a Vision Pro. It's pretty obvious that some folks see the $3500++ entry cost as a risk, especially when they don't yet fully understand the benefits and utility the product delivers. This is a natural and normal thing for a lot of people. There are still a lot of unknowns because the product has just hit the market. Over time more unknowns will become knowns and additional new benefits and utility will emerge and become relevant to the benefit-vs-risk calculus. There is absolutely no reason to rush to judgement. The Vision Pro wasn't a part of our lives 6 months ago and we somehow managed to survive. Our survival is not at risk if we hold off for 6 more months or a year or two. It'll still be there waiting for us whenever we feel compelled to take another look and recalculate our personal benefit-vs-risk equation again. I have no doubts about the Vision Pro acquiring many new benefits as it matures, as it gains wider attention by developers, and how it becomes more visible in our day to day lives. 

    At the same time there are many folks who've done the benefit-vs-risk analysis and arrived at an answer that compelled them to purchase one already. Their list of benefits and risks may be very different than it is for those who are taking a wait-and-see approach. Risks related to dealing with immaturity of the product may not be a concern for those who want to jump on the new technology as early as possible while it is still growing and more constrained than it will ever be. They may want to develop mastery with the core functionality of the Vision Pro before it explodes in size and scope over the coming years. Nothing wrong with that, especially when the Vision Pro still delivers quite a lot of value in its first iteration.  Apple's been working on most of the underlying technology that's the foundation of the Vision Pro for a very long time. Some of this technology has trickled into Apple products we've been using all along. 

    No Apple product is static in terms of what it can do and where it can be extended to capture new use cases and deliver more value. The Vision Pro is clearly the most dynamic product that Apple has ever built. It's only starting its growth cycle. I bet there's a lot more on the horizon, but even what it does in its relative infancy is still very compelling for a lot of early adopters. 
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 31
    4 generations to perfection? There is no such equipment that can be called perfect even after 20 generations. I've been with vision pro for 7 days now and I can say one thing. This thing is wonderful and already pretty perfect. Don't hold your breath choosing your toy because life is too short to wait four generations for it.
    danoxwatto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 31
    I’ve yet to buy any perfect products, from Apple or anyone else. Good to know one is coming.
    williamlondondewme
  • Reply 27 of 31
    jdwjdw Posts: 1,414member
    Xed said:
    Then let's address just two of the illogical comments you made...

    1) You said, "I don't see how Apple can possibly address 'weight' in 4 generations." I then pointed out that weight is addressed within 4 generations of most (if not all) of their products. You can pretty much throw a stone in any direction to find an example of this.

    2) You then said, "Have they addressed weight with any other product since Apple's inception, such that they made a product so FEATHER LIGHT no one would ever complain about wearing it on their face?  No!  Somebody out there will ALWAYS complain about weight." I then pointed out that someone complaining doesn't mean that weight hasn't been addressed, hasn't been greatly improved, or isn't best in class. Based on your comments you seem to be one of those people that will always complain about something no matter how much it improves.
    Here's my rebuttal of your 2 points:

    1) My contention about Apple not being able to address the WEIGHT of a THING ON ONE'S FACE is MY CONTENTION.  And YOUR CONTENTION that Apple CAN address it (regardless of how fast or slow) is just that — YOUR CONTENTION.  There is nothing LOGICAL or ILLOGICAL about such a difference of opinion.  Hence your statement in (1) doesn't make sense.  All you did was try to say we disagree, which has nothing to do with the "illogical comments" accusation you fired my way.  But I suspect you feel strongly you are right based on DIFFERENT PRODUCTS from Apple's past which you are EXPECTING to apply to the VISION PRO.  Such SPECULATION is fine. You clearly hold that opinion.  And I clearly disagree.  And here we are.  But there's nothing logical or illogical about our disagreement.  I simply don't think what Apple has done with the past with VERY DIFFERENT kinds of products applies to the VISION PRO because the VISION PRO is worn on the face and is therefore TOTALLY DIFFERENT than a Mac, MacBook, iPhone, iPad, Pippin -- you name it -- which has come before.

    2) All you said here is that I am somehow (without providing rock solid evidence of any kind) "one of those people that will always complain about something no matter how much it improves."  That too makes zero sense.  I've been an AAPL shareholder since 1999 and have never sold a single share all these years.  I want Apple to succeed in all it does, but that doesn't mean speak only words which preach to the choir.  I give praise where praise is due (and the VISION PRO deserves a lot of it), and I give criticism when it is due.  So to suggest I am somehow in a very different camp of people who ALWAYS COMPLAIN makes zero sense.

    If I had something more to add which I didn't say already to defend myself, I would.  But I've said all that needs to be said on the matter.  So... Ditto my earlier two posts.  They make a lot of sense, even if you happen to disagree with MY CONTENTION in them.  

    It's okay to disagree.  A lot of people who loved the Butterfly keyboard disagreed with me.  A lot of people who love the charging jack on the bottom of the mouse shipped with every Mac disagree with me because I don't like it there.  A lot of people who thought the round design of the hockey puck mouse disagreed with me because I advocated the purchase of a third party plastic snap-on gizmo that helps you orient the mouse properly.  A lot of people who hated the SD card slot and told me they were actually GLAD it was "gone for good" disagreed with me for wanting it back.  Friend, it's okay to disagree.  History itself will show who is or was right in the end.  That's all that really matters.  I want to see some form of the VISION PRO succeed.  But that doesn't mean I am willingly oblivious of what the TECH MEDIA preaches, which unfortunately is a lot of negativity about weight.  And I merely chimed it to say that is one area that sadly won't change sufficiently to eliminate most of those complaints over time.  Deciding whether to put a 16" MBP (my choice) in a school backpack rather than a speed-limited MacBook Air is totally different than choosing to put something on your face!  Totally and utterly different.  With a heavy backpack, just be a man or work out more!  But on your face?  Does being a macho man help with that?  No.  And such is the foundation of all my prior writing on this point to date.

    THE END.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 28 of 31
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,727member
    nubus said:
    Four full generations? Not speed bumps but generations. If like MacBook Pro generations - it will take 16 years. Mac Pro generations and we're talking four decades.
    Clearly some engineers are not happy that Tim told them to deliver. If Tim is in need of someone to manage that backlog a bit more efficient, then he can just DM me here :-D
    Properly matured technology does take 10-15 years to hit ideal volumes, performances, and designs.   It’s costly to repackage the same electronics even if the performance is the same and it’s just smaller.   It’s costly to design newer chips and add features, in hardware and software.   Maturation is addition and removal of tech to hit the ideal combination of content, features, materials, and costs.  

    Remember Touch ID?   How about Force Touch?   
    muthuk_vanalingamwilliamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 31
    XedXed Posts: 2,816member
    jdw said:
    Xed said:
    Then let's address just two of the illogical comments you made...

    1) You said, "I don't see how Apple can possibly address 'weight' in 4 generations." I then pointed out that weight is addressed within 4 generations of most (if not all) of their products. You can pretty much throw a stone in any direction to find an example of this.

    2) You then said, "Have they addressed weight with any other product since Apple's inception, such that they made a product so FEATHER LIGHT no one would ever complain about wearing it on their face?  No!  Somebody out there will ALWAYS complain about weight." I then pointed out that someone complaining doesn't mean that weight hasn't been addressed, hasn't been greatly improved, or isn't best in class. Based on your comments you seem to be one of those people that will always complain about something no matter how much it improves.
    Here's my rebuttal of your 2 points:

    1) My contention about Apple not being able to address the WEIGHT of a THING ON ONE'S FACE is MY CONTENTION.  And YOUR CONTENTION that Apple CAN address it (regardless of how fast or slow) is just that — YOUR CONTENTION.  There is nothing LOGICAL or ILLOGICAL about such a difference of opinion.  Hence your statement in (1) doesn't make sense.  All you did was try to say we disagree, which has nothing to do with the "illogical comments" accusation you fired my way.  But I suspect you feel strongly you are right based on DIFFERENT PRODUCTS from Apple's past which you are EXPECTING to apply to the VISION PRO.  Such SPECULATION is fine. You clearly hold that opinion.  And I clearly disagree.  And here we are.  But there's nothing logical or illogical about our disagreement.  I simply don't think what Apple has done with the past with VERY DIFFERENT kinds of products applies to the VISION PRO because the VISION PRO is worn on the face and is therefore TOTALLY DIFFERENT than a Mac, MacBook, iPhone, iPad, Pippin -- you name it -- which has come before.

    2) All you said here is that I am somehow (without providing rock solid evidence of any kind) "one of those people that will always complain about something no matter how much it improves."  That too makes zero sense.  I've been an AAPL shareholder since 1999 and have never sold a single share all these years.  I want Apple to succeed in all it does, but that doesn't mean speak only words which preach to the choir.  I give praise where praise is due (and the VISION PRO deserves a lot of it), and I give criticism when it is due.  So to suggest I am somehow in a very different camp of people who ALWAYS COMPLAIN makes zero sense.

    If I had something more to add which I didn't say already to defend myself, I would.  But I've said all that needs to be said on the matter.  So... Ditto my earlier two posts.  They make a lot of sense, even if you happen to disagree with MY CONTENTION in them.  

    It's okay to disagree.  A lot of people who loved the Butterfly keyboard disagreed with me.  A lot of people who love the charging jack on the bottom of the mouse shipped with every Mac disagree with me because I don't like it there.  A lot of people who thought the round design of the hockey puck mouse disagreed with me because I advocated the purchase of a third party plastic snap-on gizmo that helps you orient the mouse properly.  A lot of people who hated the SD card slot and told me they were actually GLAD it was "gone for good" disagreed with me for wanting it back.  Friend, it's okay to disagree.  History itself will show who is or was right in the end.  That's all that really matters.  I want to see some form of the VISION PRO succeed.  But that doesn't mean I am willingly oblivious of what the TECH MEDIA preaches, which unfortunately is a lot of negativity about weight.  And I merely chimed it to say that is one area that sadly won't change sufficiently to eliminate most of those complaints over time.  Deciding whether to put a 16" MBP (my choice) in a school backpack rather than a speed-limited MacBook Air is totally different than choosing to put something on your face!  Totally and utterly different.  With a heavy backpack, just be a man or work out more!  But on your face?  Does being a macho man help with that?  No.  And such is the foundation of all my prior writing on this point to date.

    THE END.
    1) There's far too much evidence to provide and it's very easy for you look up how the iPad, for example, went from 1.5 lb to 1.3lb between the first and second generations. That's weight being addressed. It's always addressed! It's ridiculous for you to even suggest that Apple will spend years developing and releasing a product without the smallest consideration of weight when a reasonable and sane person would know that the weight of an object affects its utility. In fact, the original iPad addressed weight from its onset against the size of the battery to determine an ideal utility. It seems silly that it even needs to be explained to you on a tech forum, but that's what us engineers to — we balance all aspects of a product to come up with the best possible product for a given release. Ergo, weight has clearly been addressed. Rinse and repeat.

    2) Since you're still complaining it's also proven true that someone will always complain.
    williamlondondewmewatto_cobratmay
  • Reply 30 of 31
    Marvin said:

    In Sunday's "Power On" newsletter for Bloomberg, Mark Gurman offers that the Apple Vision Pro is "more of a preview of the future than the future itself. It's too heavy and cumbersome, the battery life is far too short, and there aren't enough dedicated apps." Gurman adds there are more bugs in visionOS that you'd expect from an Apple product, "even a first-generation one."

    These issues are not all that important. Having a personal cinema at the level of quality AVP offers and intuitive enough to setup and use by most people is enough of a selling point. The only issue AVP has just now is the high price point. Even if it was lightweight, had longer battery and more apps, $3500 (4x iPad Pro) is too much for most people to invest in.

    Reviewers have all said they don't see pixels so 4K displays are enough for the foreseeable future and the display cost will fall. The passthrough camera quality was lower than expected for some people so that will need better exterior cameras. Current M2 is 5nm, if they can get the power down to half at the same performance (M4-M5), they may be able to cut the fans and fan motors, which would allow significant reduction in form factor and weight.

    Reducing build cost from $1700 -> $1200 would bring retail price down to $2499. $1499 would be a very accessible price point but difficult for Apple to reach as long as they stick with high margins. If they can aim for $1999, that would allow refurbs and used items to get under $1500. If AVP 2 can hit $2499, old AVP 1 models will drop below $2k.

    A lot of people would happily buy a used AVP 1 under $2k just for watching movies, browsing the web, looking at photos. The capability of AVP 1 already justifies a purchase, most people just don't have this much disposable income.
    finally, i dont really think that the current model is a prototype, the only problem is the price, so apple, make the dutties :wink: 

    williamlondon
  • Reply 31 of 31
    This is one of the more idiotic things the reporter has ever said.  He can’t see the forest from the trees.
    watto_cobra
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