Whatever helps you sleep at night. If you don't think the numerous people that have died behind the wheel of a Tesla with FSD activated weren't guinea pigs heading for the slaughter, you have a severe lack of clarity and ethical understanding.
Yeah, maybe Guinea pigs isn't the right term, I'd go with lemmings.
A little history goes a long way to understanding why Project Titan was cancelled. Back in 2016, CNET (as did many other tech publications) published their article titled " Apple invests $1 billion in China's Uber competitor to "learn more about the market". It was speculated that Apple's Project Titan was NOT an attempt to build a "Tesla" clone or follow Tesla's business model but rather would use their Apple designed EV self driving "transportation pod" that would form the basis for a car-sharing service that would be used by urban citizens around the world. Unfortunately, that car sharing business model never became viable and so the need for ANOTHER EV automobile maker just selling basic transportation became an untenable business model for Apple.
I would also add that Toyota’s plans to not jump on the EV market but instead focus on plug-in hybrids seems like a brilliant idea in retrospect. If i had to buy today that is the way I would go.
"The high cost of Toyotas EV blunder", "Toyota Greenwashing", "How Toyota fell behind", Toyota trying to block emission regulation in California, and Toyota lobbying for a delayed shift to EVs in US+EU. So many headlines. Plug-in hybrids were a bridge solution. In Europe sales of plug-in hybrids dropped +40% in some countries from 2022 to 2023. Across EU the drop is around 20% with more moving to EVs. You get the maintenance cost of ICE and most of the EV cost with none of the space usually available in an EV. Toyotas are super reliable and they invented Kanban (yeah!) but the company is terrible at software and EVs. Tesla is also +5 years ahead of Toyota on assembly (https://www.ft.com/content/08048b42-ce72-4b64-9e0e-d15fbc98a9da).
There is absolutely nothing wrong with what Tesla is doing, and it's ridiculous to call Tesla owners guinea pigs. They are required to pay $12,000 or $200/month if they want the car to drive itself, and they have to be almost constantly touching the steering wheel, or the system will deactivate. They also use a strike system, so if you get (I believe 3 strikes) then you are cut off for a week or something like that. So people are required to take their role as a Beta Tester seriously. Also FSD 12 should go to wide release any day now. That is end-to-end AI and an elimination of 300,000 lines of code. It should be a total game changer. Tesla is still the only auto manufacturer where every vehicle they sell is capable of driving on every road in the country by itself. They are so far ahead of everyone else, it's hard to imagine that the other car companies will ever catch up. I'm guessing that they will have to license Tesla's technology. Tesla already gave away their charge port, and every auto company except Stellantis is using it starting in 2025. There is no way that Stellantis can hold out forever or people will stop buying their cars.
Good points but I think Tesla’s auto-drive system flaws are not related to insufficient software but because Elon made the decision to deprecate LIDAR as a cost-savings move. Any self-driving system based on visible light sensors is invariably going to have holes. My cars crash avoidance system cuts out in fog at the same time I can’t see. What’s the point? I agree with the article’s author that Ai cannot account for human stupidity or variance of others on the road or the perpetual construction complex.
I would also be worried that a forever $12,000 beta-product is eventually going to poke the ire of consumers or regulators or worst of all, the mass-tort legal firms for an over-promise and under-delivery fraud class action. Tesla has issues going forward.
That said EVs are becoming a low-margin commodity thanks to China. Apple made the right decision here. I think the European automakers and EU don’t know what is going to be hitting them in the next decade as these BYD EVs flood their market as they focus on smart phone app stores.
I think Apple will be able to salvage the work they did here by partnering with an legacy automotive company. I know it’s not the usual Apple thing but I think they will have something to offer and bring some value to the proposition.
I would also add that Toyota’s plans to not jump on the EV market but instead focus on plug-in hybrids seems like a brilliant idea in retrospect. If i had to buy today that is the way I would go. EVs had their own ecological nightmare issues-battery waste, wanton deep sea mining, on-land mineral mining in conflict zones, vehicle weight and tire wear (which contributes to environmental plastic burden) etc, coal for electricity generation. We just were not aware of them all.
Apple's business model has never been low margins commodity items. Phones and computers are commodity items but Apple still competes in the market albeit with premium products which is their business model. Cars are so much harder than electronics. They gave it a go and regrouped.
It’s a smart move. They were likely designing just another multi-passenger car with 6 seats, which everybody else is competing with and losing money on.
Instead, design and build a single-passenger EV car that self-charges with a solar roof, too. The potential market is HUGE, with so many millions of single adults (some with pets), whether young adults or retired seniors, who cannot justify or afford a regular new EV car. They don’t have safe charging places, night or day. They don’t have time to wait safely in urban or remote charging stations. But a solar charging roof on a 1-passenger size car is doable, and affordable. Just need a seat, stowaway storage, battery, motor, AC, airbags and wheels.
It’d be the next Model T or iphone moment. I’ve told this to Tim Cook, as well as Elon, and Ford CEO. It’s the only way to compete with cheaper Chinese EVs.
there's one problem that modern "AI" algorithms can account for — other humans on the road.
I think you meant "cannot account for..." That's hardly surprising. As humans we also have trouble accounting for the behavior of other humans. I always drive as if a driver near me might do something stupid.
I would also add that Toyota’s plans to not jump on the EV market but instead focus on plug-in hybrids seems like a brilliant idea in retrospect. If i had to buy today that is the way I would go.
"The high cost of Toyotas EV blunder", "Toyota Greenwashing", "How Toyota fell behind", Toyota trying to block emission regulation in California, and Toyota lobbying for a delayed shift to EVs in US+EU. So many headlines. Plug-in hybrids were a bridge solution. In Europe sales of plug-in hybrids dropped +40% in some countries from 2022 to 2023. Across EU the drop is around 20% with more moving to EVs. You get the maintenance cost of ICE and most of the EV cost with none of the space usually available in an EV. Toyotas are super reliable and they invented Kanban (yeah!) but the company is terrible at software and EVs. Tesla is also +5 years ahead of Toyota on assembly (https://www.ft.com/content/08048b42-ce72-4b64-9e0e-d15fbc98a9da).
The Japanese automaker actually tops the list of brands most considered by EV shoppers in a recent survey — beating out Ford and Elon Musk's Tesla. It would appear Toyota's more hybrid-heavy approach to electric cars is alluring for the new breed of electric-car shopper, more frugal and practical than the early adopters that came before them.
I find this low margin argument BS. Are you saying that Apple executives didn't knew about the existing low margins in the car industry when they started? Ofcourse they did. But like every category Apple enters, they must have thought of commanding a high premium based on some industry leading design, innovative features, and something not seen in the industry before.
Now ofcourse, Apple might have realized that what they intended build isn't quite possible with current technology. I also think that Tim cook was waiting for Vision Pro launch before calling off this project. He's going to retire soon, and he wanted one category defining product to be launched before his retirement (that was developed completely after he took over as ceo). That's why he pushed for Vision Pro aggressively inspite of internal push back from some Apple employees. Ofcourse, he couldn't do the same with Apple car because the stakes were much higher. So once the Vision Pro launch happened and it had overall positive reviews, Tim decided it was time to axe the car project.
I've been calling BS on self-driving cars since I first heard about it. Yes, driving can be easy 99.5% of the time; it's the other 0.5% that cameras and computers will never solve on existing roads with human drivers and pedestrians.
And "AI" is the next bubble waiting to burst. For important issues involving politics or public policy, we can't even agree on the same set of facts. Google's "artificial intelligence" couldn't even produce a picture of the Founding Fathers without introducing woke BS into the results.
Hahaha. Yes, AI is currently poor at best, but humans that refuse to accept factual output because it doesn't conform to their beliefs are gonna have a hard time.
I find this low margin argument BS. Are you saying that Apple executives didn't knew about the existing low margins in the car industry when they started? Ofcourse they did. But like every category Apple enters, they must have thought of commanding a high premium based on some industry leading design, innovative features, and something not seen in the industry before.
The auto industry is low margin, yes. Apple of course knew this. But the industry is trending to even lower margins in a race to the bottom. Apple has no interest participating in that. That's new. That's what changed.
Demand for EVs has fallen off in recent years. Companies are looking for shortcuts and ways to cut costs while lowering prices. All things that Apple won't do, so it would be entering a market with a $100k behemoth when few people want it and those that do are shopping for $30k vehicles.
Apple has a bit of a slog ahead with the already-released Vision Pro. Maintaining two such costly efforts would be too much.
Why? It’s not like the same people are working on both things. And as far as costs go, Apple has more cash than they know what to do with. They’ll be fine.
On the premium and ultra premium side there seem to be more and more entries to that market and they seem to be selling well.
Margins might be another story (or maybe not) but the EV industry is ripe for another shake up (probably this year or next). That would be the second shake up for Chinese manufacturers
Apple has a bit of a slog ahead with the already-released Vision Pro. Maintaining two such costly efforts would be too much.
Why? It’s not like the same people are working on both things. And as far as costs go, Apple has more cash than they know what to do with. They’ll be fine.
Agreed. With around 160,000 employees and about $73 billion cash on hand, I'd say that Apple can probably manage more than two costly projects.
... but I suppose if you subtract out the number of Apple employees who are working on new emojis and FaceTime reactions development, they probably only have about 46 people and $25 bucks available. /s
$10bn gone, no Apple Car, nothing. Whose head is gonna roll? Insane expensive hobby…..
$10b over ten years compared to Apple’s revenue, cash flow or bottom line profits (take your pick) is like me buying lunch for a friend once a week for ten years. It’s not going to adversely affect my overall finances, but I might gain some valuable insights in life, investing, technology, etc from our weekly conversations, as Apple no-doubt gained much from its basic research.
A little history goes a long way to understanding why Project Titan was cancelled. Back in 2016, CNET (as did many other tech publications) published their article titled " Apple invests $1 billion in China's Uber competitor to "learn more about the market". It was speculated that Apple's Project Titan was NOT an attempt to build a "Tesla" clone or follow Tesla's business model but rather would use their Apple designed EV self driving "transportation pod" that would form the basis for a car-sharing service that would be used by urban citizens around the world. Unfortunately, that car sharing business model never became viable and so the need for ANOTHER EV automobile maker just selling basic transportation became an untenable business model for Apple.
What I had hoped Apple would tackle was an end-to-end system that includes the app for ride hailing and scheduling, adding your personally-owned autonomous vehicle to the taxi fleet, dispatch of the combined fleet, and really good route optimization.
Rental companies like Hertz could schedule some of their inventory in and out of the fleet, as could dedicated taxi services, and individual vehicle owners. The requirement would be that the vehicle have CarPlay; a future version that would collect information from each car, including estimated remaining range, GPS coordinates, and scheduled time left in service for that day. With this information Apple could figure out which car to dispatch, ensuring the car has sufficient remaining range and scheduled service time to complete the ride and still be able to get to a charging station or depot, if needed.
Apple could become a master global dispatch service, interfacing between vehicle owners and customers. The service could support both human-driven vehicles and autonomous vehicles, as long as the vehicle included an appropriate version of CarPlay. This would alleviate Apple from liability as either the human driver or the car’s own autonomous system would be responsible for the actual driving. Apple would only be sending it destination instructions and details about the passengers who hailed the ride, akin to “go to pier 39 to pick up Jane Doe, to drive her to the Presidio.” Apple could take a small cut of each ride, never having built or bought a single vehicle and never having developed autonomous driving technology.
I've been calling BS on self-driving cars since I first heard about it. Yes, driving can be easy 99.5% of the time; it's the other 0.5% that cameras and computers will never solve on existing roads with human drivers and pedestrians.
And "AI" is the next bubble waiting to burst. For important issues involving politics or public policy, we can't even agree on the same set of facts. Google's "artificial intelligence" couldn't even produce a picture of the Founding Fathers without introducing woke BS into the results.
Autonomous driving is currently the best it’s ever been AND the worst it will ever be. It will only get better, both due to additional processing power, advancements in the AI and ML models applied, and with increasing amounts of more detailed data. Another couple of cycles in each of these areas and we’ll be there.
Comments
Tesla does not lose money on its EV's.
I think you meant "cannot account for..." That's hardly surprising. As humans we also have trouble accounting for the behavior of other humans. I always drive as if a driver near me might do something stupid.
I stand by this prediction.
https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-hybrid-cars-ev-sales-growth-prius-bz4x-2024-2
Now ofcourse, Apple might have realized that what they intended build isn't quite possible with current technology. I also think that Tim cook was waiting for Vision Pro launch before calling off this project. He's going to retire soon, and he wanted one category defining product to be launched before his retirement (that was developed completely after he took over as ceo). That's why he pushed for Vision Pro aggressively inspite of internal push back from some Apple employees. Ofcourse, he couldn't do the same with Apple car because the stakes were much higher. So once the Vision Pro launch happened and it had overall positive reviews, Tim decided it was time to axe the car project.
https://www.ev-volumes.com/
On the premium and ultra premium side there seem to be more and more entries to that market and they seem to be selling well.
Margins might be another story (or maybe not) but the EV industry is ripe for another shake up (probably this year or next). That would be the second shake up for Chinese manufacturers
... but I suppose if you subtract out the number of Apple employees who are working on new emojis and FaceTime reactions development, they probably only have about 46 people and $25 bucks available. /s
life, investing, technology, etc from our weekly conversations, as Apple no-doubt gained much from its basic research.
What I had hoped Apple would tackle was an end-to-end system that includes the app for ride hailing and scheduling, adding your personally-owned autonomous vehicle to the taxi fleet, dispatch of the combined fleet, and really good route optimization.
Rental companies like Hertz could schedule some of their inventory in and out of the fleet, as could dedicated taxi services, and individual vehicle owners. The requirement would be that the vehicle have CarPlay; a future version that would collect information from each car, including estimated remaining range, GPS coordinates, and scheduled time left in service for that day. With this information Apple could figure out which car to dispatch, ensuring the car has sufficient remaining range and scheduled service time to complete the ride and still be able to get to a charging station or depot, if needed.
Apple could become a master global dispatch service, interfacing between vehicle owners and customers. The service could support both human-driven vehicles and autonomous vehicles, as long as the vehicle included an appropriate version of CarPlay. This would alleviate Apple from liability as either the human driver or the car’s own autonomous system would be responsible for the actual driving. Apple would only be sending it destination instructions and details about the passengers who hailed the ride, akin to “go to pier 39 to pick up Jane Doe, to drive her to the Presidio.” Apple could take a small cut of each ride, never having built or bought a single vehicle and never having developed autonomous driving technology.