New 13-inch iPad Air will eat into iPad Pro sales
A new report predicts that sales of the new iPad Pro will be affected both by its higher price than before, and by the appeal for consumers of the lower-cost 13-inch iPad Air.
New iPad Pro (source: Apple)
Trendforce has previously and rather obviously predicted that if Apple releases iPad Pro models with OLED screens, it would drop the previous versions that had mini LED displays. Now that Apple has done exactly this, Trendforce has released a report estimating the potential sales of the new iPad range.
The report from market research firm Trendforce is really focused on AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode) screens. This is the slight but significant variant of OLED that lets the iPad Pro control every individual pixel, and also do so while consuming less power.
Trendforce's focus, then, is on how it estimates that the total number of AMOLED screens shipped in any company's devices in 2025 will be approximately 9 million. It says that this represents around 7% of the total tablet market.
For Apple in particular, though, Trendforce estimates that the company will ship between 4.5 million and 5 million of the iPad Pro in 2024. That's a combined total for the 11-inch and 13-inch models of the iPad Pro together.
Trendforce does not appear to have published any previous estimates for Apple's sales, but says its new prediction is reduced to between 4.5 million and 5 million figure is a reduction. Its analysts say they are predicting this lower figure in part because of the new iPad Air.
For the first time, there is a 13-inch version of the iPad Air and Trendforce believes this could dilute consumer interest in the iPad Pro. In their base specifications, Apple sells the 13-inch iPad Pro from $1,299, while the 13-inch iPad Air starts at $799.
As Trendforce notes, that iPad Pro price is $200 more than the previous model. It ascribes that increase entirely to the screen, and in particular how Apple has used what it's calling tandem OLED technology to avoid the burn-in and shorter life previously associated with AMOLED.
So the combination of a higher-price iPad Pro and a new 13-inch iPad Air will be responsible for lowering the sales of the Pro model. Again, though, Trendforce does not say by how much, just that it will be "only" 4.5 million to 5 million in 2024.
However, a previous estimate claimed to be from supply chain sources said that Apple has ordered 8.5 million OLED display panels for 2024.
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Comments
Regardless, and as I've said many times, Apple is one of the few companies that understands that if you don't cannibalize your own sales, someone else is likely to do it for you.
The different iPads cater to different end-users.
But whatever, ...Apple will sell boatloads of each, and time will reveal all.
btw, does anyone see the discontinuity in the iPad Air being heavier than the iPad Pro?
And, no, not many people are thinking much about the iPad Air being heavier than the iPad Pro. It's a talking point for media and branding fans, but for regular buyers, I imagine there is hardly a thought. "Air" is just a branding name, just like the hundreds of other words, portmanteaus, misspelled homographs (?), and made up words that are used to describe products. You are going too deep if you interpret them too literally,
However, people's eyes and sense of touch do know when a device is more premium. On average, buyers won't be confused on why the iPad Pro is better product than the iPad Air or iPad 10th gen. Thinner devices, higher precision devices, Promotion, etc, they all contribute to a sense of premium feel. As such, Apple's iPad lineup has the more expensive products having thinner frames, thinner bezels, higher precision.
It's not the names that influences buyers, it's the actually look and feel of the devices.
I would point out that the weight difference between the IPP 11 and the heavier Air is only 20 grams, or two thirds a shot of tequila, a measure that isn’t used enough IMHO.
iPadOS is only a tiny bit more functional and useful than iPhone's iOS, which has me turning to my Macs far more often than every before to get things done, which either can't be done on iPad or can't be done as efficiently. As a result, our family doesn't use iPad much at all anymore, turning either to an iPhone or Mac instead.
In light of this, whether one model iPad eats into the sales of another matters little. It's almost laughable to even talk about that when iPad's other problems are so enormous.
I want to love the iPad, but iPadOS and limited number of Pro apps which actually enable me to do real work cause me to use a more functional device like my Macs. Until Apple addresses this, it makes no sense for our family to have an iPad, be that Pro or the Air. And this isn't my feeling alone. One of the biggest tech YouTubers out there Marques Brownlee basically said the same thing in his recent video coverage of the new iPads. And he's not the only tech YouTube who has said that either.
Some people love their iPads and use them even more than Macs. More power to those people! But to reach a wider audience, even among loyal Apple device lovers, Apple has much more work to do on the iPad. And that goes far beyond worries over which iPad model eats into the sales of another.
iPad is mature tech in a mature form.
Apple may be hoping the 13 AIr will eat the market for the 13 Pro as they probably have a higher margin on it anyway and can product in solid volumes and move more stock.
It's like the tried and true Sears, Roebuck and Co. (and others) "good-better-best" pricing/feature tiers. For some reason I've always been, and suspect many others are also drawn to the "better" option because it conveys a feeling of getting something a bit above the "good" level at a decent enough price. Besides, the "best" option probably has a bunch of features and fanciness in it than you'll never need. But if you're seeking to build your show-off, look-at-me, I'm-special credibility within yourself or your social circle, the top-tier "best" or "pro" option is definitely the only way to go. Don't think twice. Even if you're not actually a professional who actually needs all the bells and whistles at the top tier, the warm feeling you get by surrounding yourself with "pro" labeled stuff gives you a certain sense of internal satisfaction. You may not need to keep 45,000 tabs open in Chrome, but knowing that you could leave that many open sets your mind at ease. Lay down that credit card, you deserve to be happy.
With Apple's marketing it's open psychological warfare between your desires and your pragmatic sensibility. Your wallet may be rooting for pragmatism to win, but your heart usually wins and your wallet gets soundly defeated and left in a crumpled heap surrounded by monthly payments. Apple knows how to play the psychological warfare games of marketing better than most, well, maybe, except when they go slightly off the rails and start virtually crushing virtual renditions of stuff that is near and dear to your heart and your sense of self worth. Everyone makes mistakes, like not thrashing their credit card to its absolute breaking point.
I mean just look around, everyone from the middle aged fatty at your local supermarket to busy mums doing the school run (and everyone in between) seems to be sporting an Apple Watch now adays.
I mean, I’m 40, am not that interested in half marathons, swimming or anything else sport related. Yes, I like to hit my three rings a day, but I achieve that mostly by walking the dogs.
For me the main features are for communications, maps, and the convenience of just leaving my iPhone at home, putting in my AirPods and enjoying a good walk without distractions.
I wish there were more apps that were 100% independent of my iPhone. That’s the biggest drag of the platform for me personally.
It’s a shame that the Apple Watch became so iterative so quickly. Theres not been a single feature on any of the newer watches that’s made me want to upgrade my Series 6. Still, I suppose I should thank Apple for saving me the phone with there “just do the bare minimum” updates. I suspect my eventual replacement will be an ultra version for the bigger screen and better battery.
Most of my actual work with images and color takes place on macOS, but I have an old Pro I use for just looking. It’s had a good run, but this new display is a “must have” from my point of view.