Rising popularity of older iPhone models drove down average selling prices in June quarter...

AppleInsider · July 31, 2024 4:01PM

A metric used to gauge iPhone sales performance suggests a decrease in the average selling price in the June 2024 quarter due to the popularity of older models.

iPhone 15 Plus

Apple stopped reporting iPhones' Average Selling Price (ASP) in 2018. However, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) have maintained the US-WARP, which closely mirrors the ASP, minus the global scope and wholesale discounts.

In the June 2024 quarter, US-WARP was recorded at $966, representing a decline from $995 in the March 2024 quarter but shows an increase from $948 in the June 2023 quarter. Notably, the March 2024 figure was the highest ever estimated by CIRP.

The impact of older models

The sales shift towards older, less expensive iPhone models is a significant factor influencing US-WARP. The observed trend in the June 2024 quarter mirrors the decline seen in June 2023, a reflection of Apple's iPhone launch calendar.

Line graph of average prices from June 2022 to June 2024, showing fluctuations between $918 and $995.

iPhone US-Weighted Average Selling Price

As dedicated upgraders purchase new models soon after release, the remaining buyers in subsequent quarters are less inclined to buy the latest and more expensive models.

The shift has implications for Apple's sales strategy and investor expectations. While the overall unit sales remain high, the increased share of lower-priced models suggests a weaker sales quarter in revenue.

The impact on Apple's revenue is evident in the higher percentage of Android switchers and repeat iPhone buyers opting for less expensive models. As the company prepares to release its financial results on August 1, these insights provide a clearer understanding of the underlying sales dynamics and potential challenges ahead.

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ios_guy80 · July 31, 2024 5:14PM

Hopefully these buyers of older models are new to the Apple ecosystem resulting in long-term new customers who will also be buying additional services. All good for the bottom line.

charlesn · July 31, 2024 5:18PM

First: CIRP isn't reporting facts. It's reporting a guesstimate based on data from their contacts within retail channels, blah, blah, blah, the accuracy of which is completely unknown in terms of how well it represents factual reality for Apple. That said, as iPhone speed, feature set and cameras have been more than enough to satisify the vast majority of people for at least several generations--and considering that iPhone design is essentially unchanged since the 12--it's not a stretch to think that more people than in the past, when upgrading an older iPhone or buying one for the first time, choose one of the older, cheaper models still current in Apple's lineup. And this would, of course, drive down the Average Selling Price of iPhone, which would reduce gross revenue on iPhone sales. BUT... does this matter? Presumably, these older, cheaper models are also more profitable, at least as a percentage of selling price and perhaps on a absolute basis. Would you rather make $400 on a $1000 phone or $430 on an $800 phone? Yes, those are invented numbers, but the point is that the net profit on each phone is the coin of the realm, not the ASP. We'll have to see how much of a "must have" upgrade Apple Intelligence turns out to be, but it seems like the first advance in years that could truly justify the purchase of the latest model phone for many more people. .

fred257 · July 31, 2024 5:21PM

Still on iPhone 12 mini. My significant other has an iPhone 15 pro. The pro gives you the true iPhone experience. It’s just so damn huge and bulky though. If Steve Jobs was CEO it would be skinnier then the current iPhone SE

ashsaturday · July 31, 2024 5:44PM

Fred257 said:

Still on iPhone 12 mini. My significant other has an iPhone 15 pro. The pro gives you the true iPhone experience. It’s just so damn huge and bulky though. If Steve Jobs was CEO it would be skinnier then the current iPhone SE

Wish I had snagged a 13 mini (4.97 ounces), but the 12 mini is lighter (4.76 ounces). I have the SE2020 model for the TouchID, and the weight (5.22 ounces). 256GB model is plenty of storage, takes great photos, and is LIGHT WEIGHT.

Why Apple is taking till the iPhone 17 slim to get the weight under control is beyond me. I know plenty of people who have no interest in the newer iPhone models because they are too heavy.

A friend I talked to this weekend said they had to modify their entire setup to keep all credit cards, ids, etc, in a "iPhone 15 Pro Max case" so that they only had to cary 1 thing around with them. It was ridiculously heavy. -- iPhone 15 Pro Max is 7.81 ounces ~ nearly 1/2 pound!!

I send new Apple users to iPhone Resale websites, telling them to wait for Apple to get the Weight under control. Most resell websites still have AppleCare+ on the phones, and you can extend it Month-to-Month after that, no need to buy new from Apple. You still get the repair coverage, replacement, etc.

~ Long time Apple user, 1996 forward.

daalseth · July 31, 2024 5:44PM

In the June 2024 quarter, US-WARP was recorded at $966, representing a decline from $995 in the March 2024 quarter but shows an increase from $948 in the June 2023 quarter.

So June was down compared to March, which it always is. And Y/Y was actually up for BOTH March and June albeit only by less than $20. And CIRP is saying this indicates some big shift? Frankly I think the data shown in their own chart indicates not much at all. Normal Q-Q variation and essentially flat over the longer term. Both March and June are within a few bucks of the numbers from 2022. They got nothing.

edited July 2024

muthuk_vanalingam · July 31, 2024 5:49PM

These kind of speculative reports which come out in the mainstream media just before Apple makes its quarter earnings public are almost always aimed at AAPL stock manipulation. This happens like clock-work each and every quarter. Just the contents/themes of these reports vary depending on who make them.

m68000 · July 31, 2024 6:05PM

ashsaturday said:

Fred257 said:

Still on iPhone 12 mini. My significant other has an iPhone 15 pro. The pro gives you the true iPhone experience. It’s just so damn huge and bulky though. If Steve Jobs was CEO it would be skinnier then the current iPhone SE

Wish I had snagged a 13 mini (4.97 ounces), but the 12 mini is lighter (4.76 ounces). I have the SE2020 model for the TouchID, and the weight (5.22 ounces). 256GB model is plenty of storage, takes great photos, and is LIGHT WEIGHT.

Why Apple is taking till the iPhone 17 slim to get the weight under control is beyond me. I know plenty of people who have no interest in the newer iPhone models because they are too heavy.

A friend I talked to this weekend said they had to modify their entire setup to keep all credit cards, ids, etc, in a "iPhone 15 Pro Max case" so that they only had to cary 1 thing around with them. It was ridiculously heavy. -- iPhone 15 Pro Max is 7.81 ounces ~ nearly 1/2 pound!!

I send new Apple users to iPhone Resale websites, telling them to wait for Apple to get the Weight under control. Most resell websites still have AppleCare+ on the phones, and you can extend it Month-to-Month after that, no need to buy new from Apple. You still get the repair coverage, replacement, etc.

~ Long time Apple user, 1996 forward.

I’m constantly amazed at how many people keep credit cards and important ID cards strapped to their phone. Everything gone at once if phone is lost.

schlack · July 31, 2024 6:07PM

Still on my iPhone 12 Mini.

I've upgraded every couple of years since my iPhone 3S.

Now, my iPhone is almost four years old, and I still see no viable upgrade path with Apple. I fear I'll be one of those folks holding on to their iPhones until they're labeled vintage, despite my strong interest in upgrading.

Bring back a normal-sized and weighted iPhone!!!

charlesn · July 31, 2024 9:38PM

muthuk_vanalingam said:

These kind of speculative reports which come out in the mainstream media just before Apple makes its quarter earnings public are almost always aimed at AAPL stock manipulation. This happens like clock-work each and every quarter. Just the contents/themes of these reports vary depending on who make them.

Yes, speculative, but not to manipulate stock price--you wildly overestimate the ability of a story like this to have an effect on stock price. Mostly, it's to promote CIRC which is in the business of selling clients its "proprietary data." The more CIRC can get its speculation in the press, the more it establishes them as an "authority" and attracts new clients.

m68000 · July 31, 2024 9:50PM

schlack said:

Still on my iPhone 12 Mini.

I've upgraded every couple of years since my iPhone 3S.

Now, my iPhone is almost four years old, and I still see no viable upgrade path with Apple. I fear I'll be one of those folks holding on to their iPhones until they're labeled vintage, despite my strong interest in upgrading.

Bring back a normal-sized and weighted iPhone!!!

You could get a 13 mini? It did have better battery than the 12 mini. And a few tweaks too.

Rising popularity of older iPhone models drove down average selling prices in June quarter...

The impact of older models

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