Trump vs. China: How the tariff war has hit Apple so far

The battle between President Donald Trump and China over import tariffs has impacted Apple, and will hit consumer wallets soon. Here's everything you need to know about it, current through April 16, 2025.

Apple's stock has been hit hard by the Trump tariff battle with China

President Donald Trump's first presidency was known for many things, but one of the biggest events in it was the U.S.-China trade war. The financial event saw the U.S. apply high tariffs against Chinese imports, impacting the cost of produce entering the country.

The incident caused issues for many businesses, but Apple managed to steer clear of the effects. This was chiefly down to the positive relationship CEO Tim Cook had with Donald Trump at the time.

With Trump now in a second term in office, import tariffs have become an issue once again. This time, it's a bigger problem that's affecting markets around the world.

And, it will soon impact consumer prices as exporting countries don't pay tariffs -- importing companies do. Those companies typically pass increased costs for any reason to the consumer, and tariffs certainly count as increased costs.

While it escaped being hit last time, Apple has been caught up by the tariff battle, and not just by hits to its share price. As the tariff battle shifts to beyond tariff hikes, Apple faces even more financial challenges on the horizon.

This is what has happened in the Trump tariff fight so far.

November 11, 2024: Trump's tariffs could raise prices

Ahead of Trump's second term, the President-Elect was extremely keen to apply tariffs on imports on goods around the world. The goal was part of a continued push to bring manufacturing to the United States, instead of relying on foreign production.

Tim Cook and Donald Trump in a meeting at the White House in 2018

In a 22-page report, the Consumer Technology Association explained how the tariffs could impact the world. While most countries would get 10% or 20% tariff bands, China was expected to get a 60% tariff.

The report warned that there would be "unintended consequences," including a deteriorated reputation for the U.S., a downgraded credit rating, and more trade restrictions.

However, Apple was in a somewhat stronger position than last time, as it had set up some bases of manufacturing outside of China. With supply chain sections in India and other countries, it was thought Apple could produce iPhones destined for the U.S. there and deal with a lower tariff, leaving China-produced iPhones for the rest of the world.

January 27, 2025: Trump's chip tariff threat takes aim at Apple's TSMC partnership

In a speech at an Issues conference at the Trump National Doral Resort in Miami, Florida, Trump talked at length about tariffs. Aside from tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico, Trump added that there would be others placed on foreign-produced computer chips and semiconductors.

Reiterating a need to return production to the United States, Trump mentioned Taiwan's holding of about 90% of the chip business, in reference to Apple chip partner TSMC.

Believing TSMC already has billions and doesn't need financial incentives like the Chips Act, Trump instead offered that not having to pay tax was incentive enough.

"They will build a factory with their own money," Trump insisted. "They will come in because it's good for them."

February 5, 2025: China threatens App Store probe in trade tensions retaliations

With the prospect of tariffs on the horizon, China was reportedly considering an antitrust investigation into Apple's App Store.

Part of potential retaliatory measures, a report claimed that the App Store's fees and practices could be targeted by the investigation. China's State Administration for Market Regulation would perform the probe into Apple's policies and its 30% commission on purchases, as well as third-party payments and app storefronts.

On May 2024, China had concluded a previous investigation into the App Store, and deemed that Apple did not abuse its market position.

February 20, 2025: Cook meets with Trump at the White House

Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Trump on February 20, in a visit that probably discussed the import tariff situation and U.S. manufacturing.

Spotted on his way into the White House for a little after 10 AM Eastern Time, he left about 45 minutes later. Though details of the meeting were not disclosed at the time, Cook insisted he had a "great meeting" with the President.

February 20, 2025: iPhone prices could rise 10% under Trump tariffs

In a February 20 report, Bank of America analysts estimated that, whatever Apple does to spread manufacturing outside of China, it will face a minimum 10% tariff.

Apple could feasibly absorb the cost in the short term, which would cost Apple a loss of 26 cents in earnings per share. The equivalent of a 3% drop across the 2026 calendar year.

Rising prices by 3% to partially offset costs would mean a 2.4% slide and a per-share earnings drop of 21 cents. If Apple passed the increased cost onto buyers and sales decrease in tandem, BoA forecasted Apple would have to raise prices by 9%.

March 14, 2025: Foxconn chief predicts U.S. manufacturing surge

Commenting on the threat of tariffs, Apple assembly partner Foxconn CEO Young Liu confirmed the subject was an issue for its clients in March. The attitude and approach from the U.S. on tariffs made predictions for the following year harder to make, he added.

Foxconn is an Apple supply chain member, but mostly operates in China. - Image Credit: Foxconn

Liu warned that geopolitics and tariffs will introduce challenges to manufacturers, which could include a drop in demand.

Answering a question from an investment firm, Liu said that multiple clients were working with Foxconn on plans in the U.S. They were, however, just talks, and Apple wasn't directly mentioned either.

April 2, 2025: Liberation Day

Styled by Trump as "Liberation Day," the President laid out tariffs against almost every country. The "reciprocal tariffs" on imports would range from 10% to 49%, with the figure varying by country.

The Administration claimed the figures were determined by cutting the existing tariffs on the U.S. from the countries, and applying them back at half the rate. Instead, the figures were seemingly generated by dividing the trade deficit by imports to determine the "tariffs on America."

That percentage is halved to create the reciprocal tariffs.

Donald Trump started the Tariff War with China.

Not missing a branding opportunity, Trump called the Rose Garden event "Make America Wealthy Again."

For Apple, the big issue is China, which had an import tariff of 34%. With 80% of Apple's production capacity and 90% of iPhones made there, it could hurt Apple heavily.

India had a tariff applied to it of 26%, but Vietnam was hit with a 46% tariff. At least with India's low tariff, it appeared that Apple could import U.S. iPhones from that country to minimize costs.

April 4, 2025: Apple stock bloodbath continues after China applies retaliatory tariffs

Not to leave the U.S. tariff announcement unanswered, China announced its own tariffs on the United States. As the U.S. levied a total of 54% in tariffs on China, including the new 34% reciprocal version, China applied a 34% tariff on U.S. imports into China.

Trump insisted that China "panicked" and that it was the "one thing they cannot afford to do" on Truth Social. While golfing, Trump told reporters that it was like operating on a patient, and that the U.S. is "going to boom."

Meanwhile, the stock market didn't take the announcement in its stride. As of noon on April 4, AAPL was trading at $195.63, down from the high of $225.19 before the announcement.

April 4, 2025: iPhone 17 Pro predicted to cost over $2,000

For consumers, the tariff was believed to hit the iPhone price very hard. Rosenblatt Securities forecasted on April 4 that there would be massive price rises on Apple's products. A 43% iPhone price rise would increase the base model iPhone 16 to over $1,140, while the 1TB iPhone 16 Pro Max would go up to almost $2,300.

Other analysts were a little more level-headed, such as Counterpoint Research's 30% increase forecast, and CFRA Research's 10% figure for the moment but higher levels for the iPhone 17.

Rosenblatt added that the cost will largely come down to where the iPhone is made, due to lower tariffs for India versus China. Ultimately, the tariffs as imposed could've cost Apple up to $40 billion, though according to Morgan Stanley, it would be more in the range of $33 billion.

April 7, 2025: Customers panic-buy iPhones under threat of price rises, while Apple increases its stockpile

The possibility of Apple handing down the cost of high import tariffs to consumers apparently scared some on-the-fence iPhone buyers into pulling the trigger. An April 7 report insisted that U.S. Apple Stores were as busy as they were during holiday seasons.

Higher sales were experienced over the weekend, as consumers expected major price increases. Employees were often asked about increases in iPhone pricing, but they had not been given any corporate guidance on the subject.

To try and counter the tariffs before they're implemented, Apple reportedly spent some days in the last week of March shipping more products to the United States. Over three days, five flights were used to transport Apple products from China and India to the United States.

As for the U.S. warehouses, they apparently had enough stock for several months anyway.

April 7, 2025: Apple stocks plummet under 104% tariff threat

Following China's rebuttal of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports into the country, Donald Trump fought back. After applying an additional 50% on top of the existing 34% reciprocal tariff, he threatened on April 7 to increase the tariff to 104% on Chinese imports.

In effect, this would double the cost of every component or device it imports from China.

AAPL stock changes over the month before the tariff war heated up

By midday, AAPL was down another 5.3% as part of another volatile trading day. By the end of trading, Apple's stock ended at $181.46, down $6.92 from the previous Friday's close.

It was a situation felt elsewhere in the stockmarket too. The S&P 500 briefly entered a bear market status, while U.S. stocks in general dropped about 20%.

April 9, 2025: Apple braces for another share battering as China, EU fight back

After Tuesday's heavy day on the markets and Trump's new tariff, Apple had to deal with further escalations. From China, the 34% tariff on U.S. imports became 50% higher, at 84% on April 9.

It was expected that China's move would inevitably get another response from Trump.

However, the European Union also stepped in with its own retaliatory tariffs. Referring to the U.S. tariffs as "unjustified and damaging," the EU said it will be applying its own from April 15 in a first grouping, with second from May 15.

The level of the EU tariffs were not disclosed at the time. However, the EU signaled positively that it was open to negotiations.

April 9, 2025: Trump hikes tariff to 125%, pauses others for 90 days

In a bit of mixed news, April 9 saw Trump announce that he would be implementing a 90-day pause on new tariffs against most countries the U.S. deals with. During the period, the reciprocal tariff would go down to 10%.

The pause was apparently to give the Trump Administration time to make deals with more than 75 countries claimed to have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. over tariffs.

The big exception is China. Instead, the tariffs against China were jacked up to 125% due to the country's "lack of respect," Trump claimed.

The announcement was a positive thing for Apple, despite the China tariff change. Shortly after, the Dow surged 2,000 points, and Apple's stock bumped up 11.28%.

April 9, 2025: An AAPL recovery of sorts

For April 9, Apple saw its stock go from the previous day's close of $172.87 to around $169 in pre-market trading, then started the day at $172.18.

Amid a longer period where it was battered, AAPL did occasionally recover.

While markets braced for more turmoil, the stock level started to hover around $178 before Trump's 90-day pause announcement. Immediately after, the Nasdaq jumped 7% and the Dow surged 2,000 points again.

Apple closed at $198.85, up 15.3% on the previous day's closing. At the same time, its market capitalization returned to $2.99 trillion, almost to its former $3 trillion level.

April 9, 2025: Trump blinks, suggests Apple could get some relief

After the markets closed on April 9, Trump made a comment that had the potential to fix Apple's situation. Speaking to the press, Trump suggested that some companies may be considered for an exemption from tariffs.

Companies "hit harder" by tariffs would be considered, but the decision would be based on "instinct," Trump added.

April 10: Apple crumbles as White House clarifies 145% tariff rate

It was good while it lasted

Following April 9th's positive end to trading, the markets continued a downward trajectory, with AAPL's price down to $189.06 in early trading, before shooting back up to $194.78 within an hour.

However, by the end of April 10, Apple's shares were down 4.24% from the start of the day at $190.42. Its lowest point was at midday with $183.

Part of the problem was the tariff level against China. While Trump declared a 125% tariff, it turned out to be 145% in total.

Investors were also concerned about the 90-day pause, with fears that Trump's continued attacks on China would potentially slow down economic activity anyway.

April 11, 2025: China strikes back with 125%

On April 11, China continued the tit-for-tat tariffs with the U.S., increasing the tariffs on all U.S. goods by another 41%. This made the total tariff against U.S. goods 125%.

However, China also said it had no interest in raising tariffs again. Instead, if the U.S. continued, the Ministry of Commerce said it would enact its own countermeasures.

China didn't say what these countermeasures would be at the time, but limiting the transportation of goods would be one effective method at its disposal.

China insisted it was open for negotiation, but threats and pressure weren't the right way to deal with the country. Trump, meanwhile, claims he's waiting for a call from Beijing.

April 11, 2025: Apple stock rebounds again

Following the return to a slump on April 10, Apple saw premarket movements going downward to $186.10 on April 11. On opening, it rapidly climbed to $199.54 and ended the session at $198.15.

Elsewhere, the markets saw gains, including the Dow going up 619 points.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump was "optimistic" that the U.S. and China could strike a tariff deal, and that he was "open to a deal with China."

April 11, 2025: Trump gives Apple a giant break with wide-ranging tariff exemptions

In a surprise announcement extremely late on April 11, President Trump issued exemptions on reciprocal tariffs, affecting smartphones, computers, and chips.

Donald Trump with Tim Cook at a Mac Prio factory during his first presidential term

The move effectively spared Apple and other tech companies from potentially billions in import fees. It applies across almost al of Apple's product line, though accessories like leather goods and Apple Watch bands didn't get a reprieve and would face tariffs.

April 13, 2025: iPhone & Mac tariff reprieve only temporary

Clarifications were made on April 13 over Trump's tariff reprieve. The exemptions would only be temporary, as other tariffs are on the way.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that a future "semiconductor tariff" would be applied instead. As for when that would be, Lutnick said "in a month or two."

The aim of the tariff was to try and encourage component makers to set up facilities in the United States. Lutnick insisted that the U.S. shouldn't be reliant on Southeast Asia for its electronics.

The level of the inbound semiconductor tariff was not advised at the time.

April 14, 2025: China escalates US tariff war by halting rare earth mineral exports

China kept its word that its response to the U.S. tariffs would not be more tariffs on its side. Instead, it's going to make it harder to produce hardware.

In an April 14 report, it was confirmed China placed a series of rare earth minerals and magnets on an export control list since April 4. The move requires an application to the Ministry of Commerce for a license to export a list of seven rare earth minerals out of the country.

The minerals and magnets are chiefly used in the production of components in a few industries, including energy, automotive, defense, and tech products.

The problem for manufacturers like Apple is that the opaque process can take a lot of time to complete, with estimates being between six weeks and a few months before a license is granted.

In the meantime, manufacturers in supply chains around the world that rely on those minerals will have to manage with whatever stockpiles they have at the moment.

As China occupies around 90% of the market for the minerals, that leaves only a very small number of other sources for the manufacturing materials, which could lead to intense competition to secure supplies.

April 14, 2025: Trump confirms he reduced tariffs to help Tim Cook

Speaking to reporters while officially meeting with El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, President Donald Trump effectively admitted that he changed the tariffs after speaking to Tim Cook.

Telling reporters he was flexible on April 14, Trump likened the China tariff battle to a wall, and that "sometimes you have to go around it, under it, or above it." He then uttered "There'll be maybe things coming up... I speak to Tim Cook."

"I helped Tim Cook recently," Trump said more definitively. "And that whole business. I don't want to hurt anybody."

April 15, 2025: US launches semiconductor probe to explain away tariff exemptions

Following the confirmation that semiconductor tariffs will be on the way and a separate tariff "bucket" than the headline one against China, the White House decided to try and justify the exemptions and inbound tariff changes.

In a document in the Federal Register readable on April 15 ahead of its official April 16 publication, the White House claimed the Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to "determine the effects on national security of imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivative products."

It is unclear why the investigation apparently started on April 1 but was announced on April 15, and not officially enacted until April 16. There's also the oddity of the investigation starting long before the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" and it only being announced after Apple benefited from the semiconductor exemption.



Read on AppleInsider