Apple is rumored to radically change up the iPhone 18 release schedule
Apple reportedly plans to shake up its iPhone release schedule starting with the iPhone 18, with only the flagship Pro models rumored to arrive in 2026.
A render of what the iPhone Fold could look like - Image Credit: AppleInsider
Since 2019 and the iPhone 11 Pro, Apple has launched its Pro iPhone models alongside the regular models. That annual event each September or October was accompanied by an occasional mid-cycle update, or the sporadic release of an iPhone SE, but now Apple is reportedly going to change to a twice-yearly launch.
According to The Information, three unnamed sources in the supply chain claim that Apple will stagger iPhone releases into a fall and a spring pattern from 2026. There is no further specific detail about the change, but the sources say the more expensive models will launch first.
That would certainly mean models such as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. But it's also possible that Apple will launch its first iPhone Fold at the same time.
If the report is correct, the move of the base iPhone 18 to a launch in spring 2027 could mean that Apple ties it in with an iPhone 18e. The first model in that range, the iPhone 16e, was launched in spring 2025, as a replacement for the iPhone SE.
Tim Cook has described the iPhone 16e as being "the newest member of the family." So rather than being a separate, occasional launch like the iPhone SE, it's at least hinted that this lowest-cost model will be an annual part of the lineup.
There's no indication as yet where the expected slimmer model of the iPhone would launch. While it will be a high profile model, the iPhone 17 Slim or iPhone 17 Air is believed to be a replacement for the iPhone 16 Plus.
That would suggest that the most likely split would be:
- September 2026: iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone fold
- Spring 2027: iPhone 18, iPhone 18 Slim, iPhone 18e
Supporting the rumor is the fact that Apple's sales are traditionally highest following the September launch. They then tend to decline, even when there has been a mid-cycle refresh, such as in 2023 when a bright yellow version of the iPhone 14 was launched.
While it is incredibly early to get detail about a model 18 months out at this point, moving to a split release schedule would mean Apple potentially spreading its income more evenly through the year. It may also drive more sales of the Pro models, since those will be available months before the rest.
And, it's not until the spring that the non-Pro models historically capture the majority of Apple's iPhone sales in a model year.
Then there is the issue of manufacturing and production costs. Every year, Apple's major suppliers such as Foxconn go on recruitment drives to massively build up their workforce for the initial manufacture of a model, for instance.
There's reportedly a shrinking labor pool for such jobs around Foxconn's facilities in China. At the same time, there is increased competition between manufacturers, so for years Foxconn has been trying to incentivize workers to join it instead of its rivals.
Plus, if Apple evens out its release cycle, it will also even out its distribution costs. It could be another part of how radically Apple has reportedly been changing its supply and distribution in order to minimize the impact of tariffs.
Rumor Score: Possible
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Comments
It makes all the sense in the world to stagger releases for the reasons stated in the article. Plus, it would keep the marketing people happy with something new to push every few months and draw attention away from competing releases.
It would also be a positive in terms of iOS rollout issues.
Apple needs to start releasing most of their products earlier in the year so that they never miss back to school or the Christmas buying season in other words have as much time as possible with new products on the market within the key parts of the calendar year, let the anchor be WWDC the more professional computer products should come out at WWDC so you have at least six months in a year selling the higher end devices and the same should also apply to the higher end iPhones too.
WWDC is the natural release time (two weeks before and two weeks after) for any higher end products that Apple sells. Although it is unlikely to occur, consider the potential impact if some of the highly anticipated devices were unveiled during the developers’ conference.
The resulting boost in enthusiasm and extended sales period throughout the remainder of the year, leading up to back-to-school and Christmas, would undoubtedly be substantial. For the expensive items that Apple sells you need as much time/runway as possible for people/customers to make their buying decisions particularly leading into the last three months of the calendar year.
My guess is that Apple has been studying many places for years to see whether or not some of Apple's manufacturing can be moved to those territories, not just India, Vietnam, or Brazil. In any case, it's clear that putting all their eggs in one basket (whether it be China, India, wherever) risks future problems just like the one Apple faces with the current administration.
No matter what, iOS will have one launch date with point releases for new hardware. Since the Pro models have the largest amount of differentiation (both hardware and software features), it still makes sense to release these models in the fall with the new version of iOS and drive consumer interest to the premium offerings. The regular non-Pro and 'e' class models would follow later because their bigger draw would be value not shiny new features. The big volume/mass market models also benefit from improved yields which comes after a couple of months of refining manufacturing processes.
With a very mature smartphone market in industrialized nations, there's less pressure for Apple to coordinate releases of 3-5 models because people aren't replacing their phones as frequently as they did ten years ago. Most of the smartphone growth potential is in emerging markets which aren't as sensitive to calendar dates.