iPhone Fold will dominate the market despite 2026 arrival

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in Future Apple Hardware edited July 21

Apple's late arrival to the folding smartphone market after years of rumors with the iPhone Fold in 2026 is still expected to dominate the market segment.

Folding smartphone with three large camera lenses on a gradient green and yellow background.
A possible render of the iPhone Fold - Image Credit: AppleInsider



The iPhone Fold has been repeatedly rumored about over the years, but the release hasn't really improved beyond claims of it coming "next year." A Sunday report went along with the 2026 claim once again.

Sunday's "Power On" newsletter for Bloomberg insisted that the iPhone Fold will debut "next year," meaning a 2026 launch.

Mark Gurman goes on to write about how Apple won't be breaking technological barriers with its introduction at all. Instead, Samsung has done much of the "heavy lifting" in the category over the last seven years, and has set Apple up for success, he believes.

Apple has a tendency of not being first to a product category, Gurman states, but ends up being among the best when it does enter. However, while Apple tends to do this relatively early in a product category's life, it's oddly proposed in the piece that Apple is quite late here.

The oddity is that one paragraph before stating that, Gurman praises the Apple Vision Pro as bring a "distinctive approach to an emerging category," which has been around for many years.

Three views of a sleek, dark blue foldable smartphone, with multiple rear cameras and a brightly colored, partially folded display showing the time and date.
An early multi-view render of the iPhone Fold - Image Credit: AppleInsider



Apple's phone won't be a "carbon copy" of others on the market, as it will introduce changes that address the folding smartphone category's various weaknesses. This includes minimizing the inner display crease with a better hinge mechanism.

The development of iOS 27 will also apparently have a focus on software features that take advantage of the form factor.

Gurman goes on to say that Apple is also embracing the foldable iPhone design now, because it is extremely popular in China. The reason is that Apple could capitalize on it to boost sales in the region.

The iPhone Fold discussion ends with a pricing estimate of at least $2,000, matching previous rumors.

"Next Year"



The claim of a 2026 iPhone Fold certainly seems plausible, based on the rest of the tech industry, but it's also a claim to be wary about. In part because, much like the "Two Weeks" chorus in the film "The Money Pit," we keep hearing the claim that it's just around the corner.

In November 2020, it was said to be launching in September 2022. By September 2021, it was said to be arriving by 2024.

In February and March of 2024, we started to hear about the 2026 release of the device, then delays into 2027 from various sources.

Close-up of a blue smartphone with three camera lenses and a flash on a black background.
While thin, the iPhone Fold should still have a lot of cameras - Image Credit: AppleInsider



By February 2025, it was claimed that manufacturing would start in early 2026 for a 2027 release. However, that same month, the debut was also said to be happening in the second half of 2026 with manufacturing starting in late 2025.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo added in March 2025 that the foldable would debut in late 2026 or early 2027, hedging the bet.

Ultimately, despite claims and forecasts from some respected rumor sources, no-one really knows when the iPhone Fold will come out.

Flexible spec lists



The iPhone Fold is currently anticipated to have a large internal display measuring about 7.8 inches, with a smaller outer screen at 5.5 inches. To decrease the possible crease from the internal display being folded repeatedly, Apple has considered many different techniques, including hinge mechanisms with supportive elements.

When folded, it is thought to measure 9mm to 9.5mm thick, while the unfolded version could be an extremely thin 4.5mm to 4.8mm.

Cameras can include a new Meta Lens front camera, while the rear is expected to have two cameras.

Rumor Score: Possible

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 15
    Anilu_777anilu_777 Posts: 610member
    I’m certainly interested but we will see, I guess, when it’s released. No-one is sure at this point 
    williamlondon
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  • Reply 2 of 15
    I still feel this form factor is better suited for an ipad type device. I get there is a market for foldables, but just seems like a foldable phone isn't something most people will want (or need). Not to mention the fact that they are still much less durable than normal phones, but I am sure carriers will have large discounts to try and get people on board. 
    williamlondon
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  • Reply 3 of 15
    They should directly to tri-screen foldable and jump ahead of the market.
    yyzguywilliamlondon
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  • Reply 4 of 15
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,951member
    More power to those who truly want and no problem spending extra for the Foldable iPhone. For me, a day would be when Apple offers iPhone with complete screen design hiding FaceID, front camera, TouchID invisible under the screen. 
    williamlondon
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  • Reply 5 of 15
    yyzguyyyzguy Posts: 77member
    Why does anyone pay attention to mark Gurman?   I read his Power On newsletter for about a year, which was long enough to realize he doesn’t know anything more than any other prognosticators.  
    grandact73
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  • Reply 6 of 15
    yyzguyyyzguy Posts: 77member
    People were predicting roll up screens at least 10 years ago.   We’ve been promised cold fusion and quantum computing for decades.    Maybe the same people who want cyber trucks will be interested in foldable phones but they’re useless for practical applications.
    grandact73
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  • Reply 7 of 15
    yyzguy said:
    People were predicting roll up screens at least 10 years ago.   We’ve been promised cold fusion and quantum computing for decades.    Maybe the same people who want cyber trucks will be interested in foldable phones but they’re useless for practical applications.
    See the Globals in “Earth: Final Conflict” for roll-up screens…

    I’ve seen the foldables available and I can’t believe people are paying 2G for these hideous screens with a half-baked square format marred by an ugly crease right in the middle of them. Also, they are way thicker than a regular phone. The only format that makes sense to me is the Z, because it has a tiny form factor (although too thick) and unfolds to a regular size screen (with an ugly crease)

    Whatever Apple decides to do, I am absolutely convinced of one thing: if they can’t address the crease issue AND make it thin even when folded, and come up with a form factor that makes sense, they will not release a product. That’s what makes Apple different from Samsung: they won’t release crap.
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  • Reply 8 of 15
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 1,542member
    "Gurman goes on to say that Apple is also embracing the foldable iPhone design now, because it is extremely popular in China."

    Really? Folding phones at the $2,000+ price point are "extremely popular" as in generating high volume sales? I find that hard to believe. For sure, Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, etc. have some truly impressive folding phones in that price category and above--Oppo's Find N5 that's under 9mm thick when folded and sports a Hasselblad-developed camera system is a real knockout--but this is not a volume sales price point. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
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  • Reply 9 of 15
    kmareikmarei Posts: 222member
    As a former owner of the Microsoft surface duo, surface duo 2, and now the google pixel fold.
    folding screens are a gimmick.
    i rarely open up my google fold, usually just to show people how it opens.
    sounds great as a concept, but not usable in daily life.
    what you do get is a bulky single screen phone, with amazing battery life, to be fair

    unless you are the type of person that likes  watching their media on a tiny screen with crappy audio
    then this was made for you .

    i prefer to watch media on a TV, or at least an iPad
    williamlondon
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  • Reply 10 of 15
    AppleZuluapplezulu Posts: 2,531member
    A folding iPhone isn't going to happen. There are nonsensical red flags all over the prognostications on this concept. As noted here, the release date is always just around the corner. The original predictions would've had it out three years ago. Now the latest have it out a year or more from now, but with the same folding screen Samsung already has already developed. So this means we're supposed to believe that Apple has taken an extra five years to create a folding phone that is literally no different or better than the competition. 

    Apple is famously late to the party with new products, but it's because they've taken time to reimagine the whole idea and produce something that has intrinsic usefulness that's lacking in the existing competition, which is always satisfied with the novel, regardless of actual utility. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods all reimagined existing concepts. These things didn't just replace mp3 players, smart phones, tablets, smart watches and wireless ear buds. They re-defined those categories. In doing so, Apple did better than being first to release something by instead becoming the first that anyone thinks of.

    Showing up five years late with an Apple-branded folding Samsung phone that breaks no new ground doesn't do any of that. Why would anyone believe that this is something Apple is actually going to do?
    edited July 21
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  • Reply 11 of 15
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 1,542member
    AppleZulu said:
    A folding iPhone isn't going to happen. There are nonsensical red flags all over the prognostications on this concept. As noted here, the release date is always just around the corner. The original predictions would've had it out three years ago. Now the latest have it out a year or more from now, but with the same folding screen Samsung already has already developed. So this means we're supposed to believe that Apple has taken an extra five years to create a folding phone that is literally no different or better than the competition. 

    Apple is famously late to the party with new products, but it's because they've taken time to reimagine the whole idea and produce something that has intrinsic usefulness that's lacking in the existing competition, which is always satisfied with the novel, regardless of actual utility. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods all reimagined existing concepts. These things didn't just replace mp3 players, smart phones, tablets, smart watches and wireless ear buds. They re-defined those categories. In doing so, Apple did better than being first to release something by instead becoming the first that anyone thinks of.

    Showing up five years late with an Apple-branded folding Samsung phone that breaks no new ground doesn't do any of that. Why would anyone believe that this is something Apple is actually going to do?
    All well-stated. But... there is the China piece to this, as Gurman mentioned, and that does make some sense. It's Apple's second largest market and the top handset makers there are releasing some truly killer, cutting edge high-end folding phones. Huawei is already making a tri-fold phone. These phones put the Samsung and Google offerings to shame and I think it creates a perception problem for the Apple brand in terms of iPhone seeming less premium, more 2nd tier, because it's not even competing with the most premium, tech laden Chinese phones. That said, an Apple folding phone with "me, too" hardware about equal to Samsung isn't going to help with that perception. And I honestly don't know if the benefits of "the Apple ecosystem" and its seamless integration of various Apple products means as much in China as it does in the U.S. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
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  • Reply 12 of 15
    charlesn said:
    AppleZulu said:
    A folding iPhone isn't going to happen. There are nonsensical red flags all over the prognostications on this concept. As noted here, the release date is always just around the corner. The original predictions would've had it out three years ago. Now the latest have it out a year or more from now, but with the same folding screen Samsung already has already developed. So this means we're supposed to believe that Apple has taken an extra five years to create a folding phone that is literally no different or better than the competition. 

    Apple is famously late to the party with new products, but it's because they've taken time to reimagine the whole idea and produce something that has intrinsic usefulness that's lacking in the existing competition, which is always satisfied with the novel, regardless of actual utility. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods all reimagined existing concepts. These things didn't just replace mp3 players, smart phones, tablets, smart watches and wireless ear buds. They re-defined those categories. In doing so, Apple did better than being first to release something by instead becoming the first that anyone thinks of.

    Showing up five years late with an Apple-branded folding Samsung phone that breaks no new ground doesn't do any of that. Why would anyone believe that this is something Apple is actually going to do?
    All well-stated. But... there is the China piece to this, as Gurman mentioned, and that does make some sense. It's Apple's second largest market and the top handset makers there are releasing some truly killer, cutting edge high-end folding phones. Huawei is already making a tri-fold phone. These phones put the Samsung and Google offerings to shame and I think it creates a perception problem for the Apple brand in terms of iPhone seeming less premium, more 2nd tier, because it's not even competing with the most premium, tech laden Chinese phones. That said, an Apple folding phone with "me, too" hardware about equal to Samsung isn't going to help with that perception. And I honestly don't know if the benefits of "the Apple ecosystem" and its seamless integration of various Apple products means as much in China as it does in the U.S. 
    Well said. Absolutely spot on with your observations on foldable phones from Chinese OEMs. And people in US do not get a chance to see them. People in US get to see only half baked attempts from Samsung and evaluate the idea based on that. Apple will do much better than that.

    Slightly off-topic - You are well informed about what is happening in Android world on the foldables. Which is why I find it strange that you are not aware of batttery technology improvements that are already available in Android phones for last 2-3 years. The rumors about iPhone Air having lower battery life than current small sized iPhones are complete non-sense. Apple would adopt the Silicon Carbon batteries in the upcoming iPhones and iPhone Air would definitely have a pretty good battery life, even with a thin profile. Samsung and Google are still stuck with older batteries which is why their phones have average/terrible battery life. That is not the case with Android phones from Chinese OEMs for the last 2-3 years. And Apple will adopt those batteries in this year, making 2-day battery life normal for iPhones going forward.
    williamlondon
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  • Reply 13 of 15
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 1,542member
    sroussey2 said:
    They should directly to tri-screen foldable and jump ahead of the market.
    Apple's already late to the party on tri-folds: 

    https://consumer.huawei.com/my/phones/mate-xt-ultimate-design/

    Apple would adopt the Silicon Carbon batteries in the upcoming iPhones and iPhone Air would definitely have a pretty good battery life, even with a thin profile. Samsung and Google are still stuck with older batteries which is why their phones have average/terrible battery life. That is not the case with Android phones from Chinese OEMs for the last 2-3 years. 
    There have been murmurs about new battery tech in the upcoming iPhones, particularly the Air, but no solid info of any type from the rumor mill and the Apple rumor "brand names" like Gurman, Kuo and Prosser. This isn't to say it's definitely not happening, but 7 weeks out from the iPhone 17 launch, I would think we'd have heard more than we have about change this major. And in a few years, I don't see the major Chinese OEMs being on Android any longer. Huawei is already moving to its own HarmonyOS that is unrelated to Android. Xiaomi is running a version of Android heavily customized in-house called Xiaomi HyperOS, setting the stage to completely transition to their own OS. Oppo is running its ColorOS on top of Android. I think the Chinese, in general--and we certainly see this in their EVs, which leave Tesla in the dust--are determined to offer something better than the best of Western tech. It also illustrates what happens to consumers in a nation with high tariff walls: Americans don't get to buy the truly awesome Chinese EVs because they're kept out by a 100% (or more?) tariff rate. We have to settle for inferior EVs at higher prices. 
    edited July 22
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  • Reply 14 of 15
    charlesn said:
    sroussey2 said:
    They should directly to tri-screen foldable and jump ahead of the market.
    Apple's already late to the party on tri-folds: 

    https://consumer.huawei.com/my/phones/mate-xt-ultimate-design/

    Apple would adopt the Silicon Carbon batteries in the upcoming iPhones and iPhone Air would definitely have a pretty good battery life, even with a thin profile. Samsung and Google are still stuck with older batteries which is why their phones have average/terrible battery life. That is not the case with Android phones from Chinese OEMs for the last 2-3 years. 
    There have been murmurs about new battery tech in the upcoming iPhones, particularly the Air, but no solid info of any type from the rumor mill and the Apple rumor "brand names" like Gurman, Kuo and Prosser. This isn't to say it's definitely not happening, but 7 weeks out from the iPhone 17 launch, I would think we'd have heard more than we have about change this major. And in a few years, I don't see the major Chinese OEMs being on Android any longer. Huawei is already moving to its own HarmonyOS that is unrelated to Android. Xiaomi is running a version of Android heavily customized in-house called Xiaomi HyperOS, setting the stage to completely transition to their own OS. Oppo is running its ColorOS on top of Android. I think the Chinese, in general--and we certainly see this in their EVs, which leave Tesla in the dust--are determined to offer something better than the best of Western tech. It also illustrates what happens to consumers in a nation with high tariff walls: Americans don't get to buy the truly awesome Chinese EVs because they're kept out by a 100% (or more?) tariff rate. We have to settle for inferior EVs at higher prices. 
    Good point about Apple rumor mill not talking about changes in battery technology. I still feel that rumor mill is wrong about iPhone Air having reduced battery capacity than current iPhones. Anyway, just few weeks from now, we will know for sure the direction that Apple has taken for iPhone Air.
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  • Reply 15 of 15
    AppleZuluapplezulu Posts: 2,531member
    charlesn said:
    AppleZulu said:
    A folding iPhone isn't going to happen. There are nonsensical red flags all over the prognostications on this concept. As noted here, the release date is always just around the corner. The original predictions would've had it out three years ago. Now the latest have it out a year or more from now, but with the same folding screen Samsung already has already developed. So this means we're supposed to believe that Apple has taken an extra five years to create a folding phone that is literally no different or better than the competition. 

    Apple is famously late to the party with new products, but it's because they've taken time to reimagine the whole idea and produce something that has intrinsic usefulness that's lacking in the existing competition, which is always satisfied with the novel, regardless of actual utility. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods all reimagined existing concepts. These things didn't just replace mp3 players, smart phones, tablets, smart watches and wireless ear buds. They re-defined those categories. In doing so, Apple did better than being first to release something by instead becoming the first that anyone thinks of.

    Showing up five years late with an Apple-branded folding Samsung phone that breaks no new ground doesn't do any of that. Why would anyone believe that this is something Apple is actually going to do?
    All well-stated. But... there is the China piece to this, as Gurman mentioned, and that does make some sense. It's Apple's second largest market and the top handset makers there are releasing some truly killer, cutting edge high-end folding phones. Huawei is already making a tri-fold phone. These phones put the Samsung and Google offerings to shame and I think it creates a perception problem for the Apple brand in terms of iPhone seeming less premium, more 2nd tier, because it's not even competing with the most premium, tech laden Chinese phones. That said, an Apple folding phone with "me, too" hardware about equal to Samsung isn't going to help with that perception. And I honestly don't know if the benefits of "the Apple ecosystem" and its seamless integration of various Apple products means as much in China as it does in the U.S. 
    This is a good time to recall the old adage about lies, damn lies and statistics. Folding smartphones have shown an astounding 27% growth in China! 

    That sounds really impressive and important until you see the other stat that this means they're now 3% of the market there. So in reality, this "growth" represents a statistically insignificant fraction of a fraction of a percent change within lower single digits in the Chinese market, the only place where anyone is even trying to claim that folding phones have any significance. With this dialed out to that reality, I'll stand by my observation that it seems pretty unlikely that Apple is going to, after several years' delay, rush something underwhelming to market out of FOMO in China. 

    There are only two scenarios I can imagine within the way Apply operates that any of this represents any scintilla of something real. One is that this is about an iPad, not a phone. An iPad that folds up to more easily fit in your purse or whatever makes some kind of sense. It wouldn't require much change or bloat in iPadOS to accommodate it, and would be less susceptible to the repetitive-use wear and tear problems of a phone that would be flexed hundreds of times a day. The other is that most of the specifics of the folding iPhone rumors are wrong, and that Apple has come up with something that does use a folding screen, but is implemented in some way that makes an entirely new use case for the device beyond the novelty of hey look, it folds! While this scenario is possible, it also seems highly unlikely that after five years of constant rumors on the subject, no one has even caught wind of it being something different, even if they can't determine how it's different.

    So I'll stick with my position that this is almost certainly just the rumor mill out snipe hunting and fishing for red herring.
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