Well, whatever u guys say, it simply doesn't matter. There are threads ten times worse with people quoting that I heard it from a friend which is also very laughable. If u guys like evidence, just read off the press because nobody will like to predict here. AI has tons of stories and nobody could proof a thing unless you want Apple legal to chew up your ass. I am just posting my prediction, I am entitle to my own opinion. I don't quite understand why people can post messages like JACK ASSES and stuff here. Shit, I didn't offend anyone, if you don't like it, don't read it.
IBM is VERY conservative when it comes to processor announcements, the PowerPC 750FX turned up in the iBook almost 5 months ahead of IBM's projected shipping date.
However that being said, I still don't think it is happening before the summer at the earliest,
And given Apple's track record over the last few years, your going to want to avoid the Rev.A of these things like the plauge!
Unfortunately, I am confident that we won't see 970 Macs at MWSF. I'll be at the keynote, so I'll find out directly. If I am wrong (which I would love to be, but won't), then tiramisubomb can expect $10 from me to his email address once I get back.
<strong> I am entitle to my own opinion. I don't quite understand why people can post messages like JACK ASSES and stuff here. Shit, I didn't offend anyone, if you don't like it, don't read it.</strong><hr></blockquote>
No one has an issue with predictions and opinions. Just say that in the title of your post. That it's your guess and not fact. Perhaps then, you won't feel the wrath of AI members.
Of course its based on assumption. Anyone knows what is going on is probably going to lock up in bars. Apple does not like leaks and everybody knows it, its like Area 51. So we are all speculators with the difference that your assumption and logic are not the same as mine.
We will have 1 more update to the G4. Also, I wish people would realize that Apple hasn't updated the towers at an expo in a long time, so stop saying 'at MWSF'.
<strong>Also, I wish people would realize that Apple hasn't updated the towers at an expo in a long time, so stop saying 'at MWSF'.</strong><hr></blockquote>
And that means what? Before this, they were updating towers at the big shows (Seybold, Expos). Back then people kept saying, "Apple only updates at the Big Shows."
Remember, all "blanket" statements are wrong.
(Before you get an aneurism, that last part was not-so-subtle humor.)
The only possibility that would give this thread any creedence is that IBM and Apple know the devistating effect that the 970 will have on PM sales before it arrives. As a consequence it is in their interest to be very conservative in there estimates of delivery. If you say to someone that there are new machines in a year, most will not wait if they need a machine now. If you say they will be here in three months, most will do the oposite and wait. Would anyone like to post a monthly sales forecast for the next 12 months of PM sales? It would probably look something like this:-
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J F M A M J J A S O N
If this is a reasonable guess, I would assume the real date for first shipment would be around March/April. If the new processor arrives any time after May, the results will be devistating for Apple. And if machines arrive in February watch the stock price...
<strong> Q3 2003 doesn't, in anyone's universe, mean MWSF.</strong><hr></blockquote>
well, although what you're stating is probably factually correct in this dimension, i wouldn't be quite so absolute in my statement if i were you... how do you know for sure there aren't other universes, where MWSF's happen in the third quarter ?
<strong>I'd look for the drop off to be even more dramatic after March, unless G4 updates happen to be significant and CHEAP.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well I think a lot of people arn't like us and obsessed, particulally in th pre-press business, they will continue to buy because the current machines will do what they need to do.
For those doing just Video/3D then I think you wqould be right, but given the mix of users/buyers I think the graph is about right.
I like this quote: "it looks more than certain that Apple top line machines will sport PPC 970 badged as G5".
More than certain. Yeah.. I wouldn't be more than certain even if Apple says it themselves. Last time the launched entirely new processors in new machines they ended up not delivering the high end-version until many months later.. Anyone remberling the "smooth" launch of the original G4?
<strong>Well, whatever u guys say, it simply doesn't matter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
And your opinion does?
If there were going to be updates to the Pro line at MWSF, we'd have heard about EOL'd machines by now. There are reports of EOL'd iMacs and eMacs, consistent with rumores of updates there, nothing on the Pro line. So fuggadaboutit.
Oh I have no logic. Because IBM stated that they will start sampling 970 in Q2, that means nothing is going to be available earlier. IBM can say anything they want but what they do can be different from time to time. At first, I wasn't completely sure that 970 can be used for the next Mac because early details from IBM did not mention Altivec but did mention some sort of SMD unit with 160 instructions built in. The G4 has 162 instructions, so it is not really the same. Few weeks later. IBM has stated the SMD has 162 instructions as opposed to 160 and its Altivec compatible. So, press release can change from time to time.
Another point makes it even clearer, Apple has been busy rebuilding its base and find new ways to increase market share. Their digital hub, coupled with IPOD, Firewire and now even iSync, Iphoto and iCal , all designed to tap into both everyday business and entertaining needs. With Apple, new software strategy and their new vision to capitalize into newer industry such as Hollywood (Final Cut Pro) and consumer video revolution (iMovie). They really need to stay ahead of time. And as you see, Apple retail store and overall sales outperform the PC market. However, their massive effort still only capitalizes 5% market share. Market share should be at least 10% by now. Doesn't that give you a signal, that something else is missing. There are two main reasons why PC users will not switch to Macs.
Reason number one: Mac platform lacks apps and file formats are not compatible - this issue has been partially addressed by iapps strategy along with some big software makers pledges to develop new apps native for OSX. Apple also uses iSync to find new friends such as syncing with bluetooth phones and Palm without the need for those vendors to develop a separate set of applications for Macs. This helps but that is only half the solution.
As for second reason why PC users will stay away: is clockspeed, Intel loves to bluff numbers and performance with unusual high number of pipelines in order to generate frequency but Intel indeed uses the strategy well, with clockspeed increase substantially coupled with an enhance L2, definitely on par compared with top of the line G4 , and the bus that tries to keep the processor busy, with DDR support for FSB also, where is Motorola on this one. OK, may be numbers are misleading, but few years ago even G3 proclaim Pentium are turtle and few years later, you know the story. Altivec helps but not all apps fly and Motorola hasn?t done much since then. So what Apple has done recently on this issue, not much. Since superchips need enhanced process and $$$ for development, Motorola is currently in financial trouble, and Apple is not their priority customer either. Theres not much Apple can expect since Motorola cannot be part of the equation. So Apple must address performance for the next issue. It so happens that IBM seems to have a solution at the right place and may be even the best time, why won?t it be possible that Apple will adopt it first. 970 can be use on other computing platform, but which one is more important than Apple. Apple is the largest unix vendor and probably is the only alternative platform capable of rebuilding its market share to compete with PC. IBM probably designs the 970 with Apple in mind since IBM likes SJ strategy and wants to help out. (Remember, SJ wants more market share, meaning more unit sales than current) So Apple is not important, 970 is definitely a Mac priority from IBM.
U guys are all Mac users, so am I, SJ makes solutions and he knows for sure if Mac continues to use PowerPC, processor must continue to excel, otherwise switch to Intel. I think there is more than logic. Programmer even tells me to moan about it. What is that to moan, its just a simple thread, there is no bet involve, no need to give each other a bad name like Jackass and I am definitely not religious. This is only my 50th post. I?m entitle to my own opinion, I agree I can be wrong too, I am not god and I am definitely not obsess. If all is missing its just a simple question mark for the topic title, I am sorry about it. I am definitely not trying to jack up the response by using this title either. So fxxk you all very much.
Actually it does. Saying Q3 03 pretty much kills PMac sales from now on. Apple knows we wait and it hates it.
Which is worse, poor profit for 2 quarters or asking IBM to promote the worst case scenario then release early?
Remember Q3 '03 is full production. Apple might not need full production.
I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!</strong><hr></blockquote>
I would like to weigh in on this and I wold like to point out the obvious: IBM is the most un-silent partner that Apple has ever had concerning timelines. These guys go way beyond where ATI went and nothing, I have heard nothing about Seve rants or anything like that. Looking at the 10K that Apple filed sales of DeskTops are down around 20% last year and another approximately 15% this year. If sales continue to falter then at some point Apple will be losing money to produce them. Now I look at this and see what IBM is saying, which has to impact sales like a sharp shot to the ribs, and nothing. Apple is like 'Yea fine'. But for them this is here and now. I mean that if Apple does use the 970 around June of '03 then the sales will only be lifted for the final quarter of '03, July, August, September. I'm not saying anything here just pointing out that it is very odd situation for Apple to take like they are, which is almost lying down.
... I'm not saying anything here just pointing out that it is very odd situation for Apple to take like they are, which is almost lying down.</strong><hr></blockquote>
That might just be their only option.
I hope as much as anyone that the 970 will appear this Jan, but I don't really expect it. Apple may not have been able to swing a deal with IBM that required IBM's total silence on the 970 until Apple's release. Bear in mind that Apple didn't really have any other options, so if IBM says "we don't work that way, take it or leave it" Apple had little choice.
Oh, and for those still unsure whether Apple is even going to USE the 970 (some still seem to doubt), I have no doubt. I have been told by those who would know at IBM that "we have won all Apple business". Think what you like.
Comments
However that being said, I still don't think it is happening before the summer at the earliest,
And given Apple's track record over the last few years, your going to want to avoid the Rev.A of these things like the plauge!
<strong> I am entitle to my own opinion. I don't quite understand why people can post messages like JACK ASSES and stuff here. Shit, I didn't offend anyone, if you don't like it, don't read it.</strong><hr></blockquote>
No one has an issue with predictions and opinions. Just say that in the title of your post. That it's your guess and not fact. Perhaps then, you won't feel the wrath of AI members.
<strong>Also, I wish people would realize that Apple hasn't updated the towers at an expo in a long time, so stop saying 'at MWSF'.</strong><hr></blockquote>
And that means what? Before this, they were updating towers at the big shows (Seybold, Expos). Back then people kept saying, "Apple only updates at the Big Shows."
Remember, all "blanket" statements are wrong.
(Before you get an aneurism, that last part was not-so-subtle humor.)
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* * * * *
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* * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * * * *
J F M A M J J A S O N
If this is a reasonable guess, I would assume the real date for first shipment would be around March/April. If the new processor arrives any time after May, the results will be devistating for Apple. And if machines arrive in February watch the stock price...
<strong> Q3 2003 doesn't, in anyone's universe, mean MWSF.</strong><hr></blockquote>
well, although what you're stating is probably factually correct in this dimension, i wouldn't be quite so absolute in my statement if i were you... how do you know for sure there aren't other universes, where MWSF's happen in the third quarter ?
<strong>I'd look for the drop off to be even more dramatic after March, unless G4 updates happen to be significant and CHEAP.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well I think a lot of people arn't like us and obsessed, particulally in th pre-press business, they will continue to buy because the current machines will do what they need to do.
For those doing just Video/3D then I think you wqould be right, but given the mix of users/buyers I think the graph is about right.
<strong>So we are all speculators with the difference that your assumption and logic are not the same as mine.</strong><hr></blockquote>
But your assumption has no logic to back it up!?
More than certain. Yeah.. I wouldn't be more than certain even if Apple says it themselves. Last time the launched entirely new processors in new machines they ended up not delivering the high end-version until many months later.. Anyone remberling the "smooth" launch of the original G4?
<strong>Well, whatever u guys say, it simply doesn't matter.</strong><hr></blockquote>
And your opinion does?
If there were going to be updates to the Pro line at MWSF, we'd have heard about EOL'd machines by now. There are reports of EOL'd iMacs and eMacs, consistent with rumores of updates there, nothing on the Pro line. So fuggadaboutit.
<strong>
But your assumption has no logic to back it up!?</strong><hr></blockquote>
Actually it does. Saying Q3 03 pretty much kills PMac sales from now on. Apple knows we wait and it hates it.
Which is worse, poor profit for 2 quarters or asking IBM to promote the worst case scenario then release early?
Remember Q3 '03 is full production. Apple might not need full production.
I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!
<strong>I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!</strong><hr></blockquote>
Just so long as he doesn't come back here after MWSF moaning about how Apple let him down again.
Another point makes it even clearer, Apple has been busy rebuilding its base and find new ways to increase market share. Their digital hub, coupled with IPOD, Firewire and now even iSync, Iphoto and iCal , all designed to tap into both everyday business and entertaining needs. With Apple, new software strategy and their new vision to capitalize into newer industry such as Hollywood (Final Cut Pro) and consumer video revolution (iMovie). They really need to stay ahead of time. And as you see, Apple retail store and overall sales outperform the PC market. However, their massive effort still only capitalizes 5% market share. Market share should be at least 10% by now. Doesn't that give you a signal, that something else is missing. There are two main reasons why PC users will not switch to Macs.
Reason number one: Mac platform lacks apps and file formats are not compatible - this issue has been partially addressed by iapps strategy along with some big software makers pledges to develop new apps native for OSX. Apple also uses iSync to find new friends such as syncing with bluetooth phones and Palm without the need for those vendors to develop a separate set of applications for Macs. This helps but that is only half the solution.
As for second reason why PC users will stay away: is clockspeed, Intel loves to bluff numbers and performance with unusual high number of pipelines in order to generate frequency but Intel indeed uses the strategy well, with clockspeed increase substantially coupled with an enhance L2, definitely on par compared with top of the line G4 , and the bus that tries to keep the processor busy, with DDR support for FSB also, where is Motorola on this one. OK, may be numbers are misleading, but few years ago even G3 proclaim Pentium are turtle and few years later, you know the story. Altivec helps but not all apps fly and Motorola hasn?t done much since then. So what Apple has done recently on this issue, not much. Since superchips need enhanced process and $$$ for development, Motorola is currently in financial trouble, and Apple is not their priority customer either. Theres not much Apple can expect since Motorola cannot be part of the equation. So Apple must address performance for the next issue. It so happens that IBM seems to have a solution at the right place and may be even the best time, why won?t it be possible that Apple will adopt it first. 970 can be use on other computing platform, but which one is more important than Apple. Apple is the largest unix vendor and probably is the only alternative platform capable of rebuilding its market share to compete with PC. IBM probably designs the 970 with Apple in mind since IBM likes SJ strategy and wants to help out. (Remember, SJ wants more market share, meaning more unit sales than current) So Apple is not important, 970 is definitely a Mac priority from IBM.
U guys are all Mac users, so am I, SJ makes solutions and he knows for sure if Mac continues to use PowerPC, processor must continue to excel, otherwise switch to Intel. I think there is more than logic. Programmer even tells me to moan about it. What is that to moan, its just a simple thread, there is no bet involve, no need to give each other a bad name like Jackass and I am definitely not religious. This is only my 50th post. I?m entitle to my own opinion, I agree I can be wrong too, I am not god and I am definitely not obsess. If all is missing its just a simple question mark for the topic title, I am sorry about it. I am definitely not trying to jack up the response by using this title either. So fxxk you all very much.
<strong>
Actually it does. Saying Q3 03 pretty much kills PMac sales from now on. Apple knows we wait and it hates it.
Which is worse, poor profit for 2 quarters or asking IBM to promote the worst case scenario then release early?
Remember Q3 '03 is full production. Apple might not need full production.
I think it's unlikely, but I admire tiramisus optimism!</strong><hr></blockquote>
I would like to weigh in on this and I wold like to point out the obvious: IBM is the most un-silent partner that Apple has ever had concerning timelines. These guys go way beyond where ATI went and nothing, I have heard nothing about Seve rants or anything like that. Looking at the 10K that Apple filed sales of DeskTops are down around 20% last year and another approximately 15% this year. If sales continue to falter then at some point Apple will be losing money to produce them. Now I look at this and see what IBM is saying, which has to impact sales like a sharp shot to the ribs, and nothing. Apple is like 'Yea fine'. But for them this is here and now. I mean that if Apple does use the 970 around June of '03 then the sales will only be lifted for the final quarter of '03, July, August, September. I'm not saying anything here just pointing out that it is very odd situation for Apple to take like they are, which is almost lying down.
<strong>
... I'm not saying anything here just pointing out that it is very odd situation for Apple to take like they are, which is almost lying down.</strong><hr></blockquote>
That might just be their only option.
I hope as much as anyone that the 970 will appear this Jan, but I don't really expect it. Apple may not have been able to swing a deal with IBM that required IBM's total silence on the 970 until Apple's release. Bear in mind that Apple didn't really have any other options, so if IBM says "we don't work that way, take it or leave it" Apple had little choice.
Oh, and for those still unsure whether Apple is even going to USE the 970 (some still seem to doubt), I have no doubt. I have been told by those who would know at IBM that "we have won all Apple business". Think what you like.