The 2.8 GHz P4 posts just under 1000 SPECfp, and it will be > 3 GHz by the time the 970 arrives. That seems "on par" to me. It will kick the snot out of the G4 though.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Re-capp needed (sorry):
It may be on-par SPEC wise, but what about cost and power dissappation?
I said I wasn't buying the gorgeous iMac2 until it had a decent processor in it. Say, a G5.
He then went onto say that I 'did know about the PPC difference.'
'Yeah...'
And he said...
'A 1 gig G4 equals a Pentium 3 gig processor...because it can get three times as much done in the same time...'
I was tired and didn't want to get into a preposterous argument.
It's b*ll*cks, but I'm glad to see the guys in Apple retail being a bit more aggressive! They were eating people alive as they got into the store. Hmmmm. Well, they're going to need people who can spout 'bullsh*t' if they think they can get to 10% with 1 gig G4s and overpriced specs.
He also said that the G5 probably won't arrive...and 'IF it did, it proabably won't be called a 'G5'...and '...that you'll probably had a year wait for it.'
(Yep, that's the last bit...right there....that's relevant to this thread. That's what Apple foot patrol think...)
Myself? I think a 1 gig G4 equals a 1.8 gig Pentium 4 if the wind is blowing its way.
I also think I won't rule out the possibility of a Motorola G5 this July and a 970 at a Macworld San Fran 2004 time frame.
But, a 'G5' in March next year? I hope not. I'm still on a 970 'fall' timeframe. It just feels right. But let's not rule out Apple's ability to 'surprise'TM us.
[quote]... The consent decree merely prevents them from disseminating FUD -- announcing products that won't be ready for some time just to prevent sales going to the competition.
<hr></blockquote>
And we've all seen (from Microsoft's example) how scrupulous companies are about adhering to the terms of consent decrees.
I dont think that Moto will be the supplier of the next chip. IBM is a more dependable solution, a company focused on making servers and kicking Kasparov's butt. Moto, on the other hand, makes integrated solutions that go into VCRs and DVD players. And everybody knows that no one brags about the speed of the chip in their set-top DVD player. <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />
You guys forget. Apple can't release PPC970 based systems until they have OS that can run on it. Panther won't be ready until September.
why wait for panther, maybe it is possible to implement the crusial 64 bits and ppc970 only parts in 10.2 right away. i think that apples ppc970 prototypes actually run a tweaked 10.2. and not an early version of panther. so roll out the hardware with a working 10.2.6v64 os when ready and upgrade to 10.3 later.
You guys forget. Apple can't release PPC970 based systems until they have OS that can run on it. Panther won't be ready until September.
I agree with gar. It wouldn't take much to tweak the kernel to be 64bit aware enough that the OS could provide a 32 bit user space for apps via the chip's built in 32 bit compatibility mode.
That could be why the code name for Mac OS X 10.2.5 is "plaid". They may have had to come up with a code name in the "color" series for an unexpected revision prior to panther. (Maybe.)
I agree with gar. It wouldn't take much to tweak the kernel to be 64bit aware enough that the OS could provide a 32 bit user space for apps via the chip's built in 32 bit compatibility mode.
That could be why the code name for Mac OS X 10.2.5 is "plaid". They may have had to come up with a code name in the "color" series for an unexpected revision prior to panther. (Maybe.)
But then again, 10.2.5 should have taken a bit more time then...
Maybe 10.2.6 will be rolled out, with 64 bit support as the only feature..
Well if you look what happened at the begining of the year nearly every modl in the lineup was updated, to keep sales oging for as long as possible. I believe that we will see the 970 and panther launched simultanously and in a big bang kind of way. There is almopst no chance that Apple could put 970's in Powermacs and continue to sell PowerBooks to anyone and visa-versa.
No I think that they will colect enough 970's to enable an accross the range launch at the professional end and that means. PowerMacs, PowerBooks and Xserve/Raid.
If Panther is really going to be Spetember (and the timing could be a red-herring) then that is when I expect the launch of 970 based machines.
There are countless possible scenarios, but given the available information I still believe the following. And I have not wavered on this since ~August last year.
[list=1][*]Apple released Jaguar last August and the WWDC preview hints at Panther being released in roughly the same timeframe (Aug-Sept).[*]IBM's original 970 announcement said 2nd half 2003 (i.e. July or later) for full production and rumours are that they schedule is going well. Accounting for the time to get the chips from the IBM fab into the Apple factory and through the distribution network, shipping machines in the Aug-Sept time frame seems reasonable.[*]Supporting a new processor which has major differences (new scheduler in the compiler, 128-byte cache lines, new supervisor mode details, new virtual memory hardware, etc) requires at least a minor OS revision.[*]The 970 isn't going to be the only new feature of these machines -- they are likely to have AGP 8x and possibly other goodies not yet seen. This will also require OS support.[*]The more OS revisions you create, the more you have to support. If you are going to release a major OS update within a month anyhow, why put out an "extra" minor one to support new hardware that you could easily delay shipment of by up to a month (if at all).[*]We don't know if Panther will include 64-bit support. My position on this is that the OS internals are probably already 64-bit ready so why not include it at that level? The GUI libraries may not be ready for 64-bit, but that's not nearly as important as being ready to support 64-bit server applications.[*]Steve Jobs likes to make a big splash. If he has the option to do a double barreled introduction with a new super-fast OS running on a new super-fast Mac, then he probably will. These new toys may be in a demo-able state in June and WWDC has been delayed exactly so that SJ can do his thing... even if they don't actually ship until September. They'll probably start taking large numbers of pre-orders.[*]The aluminum PowerBooks were just introduced, and there is 15" unit waiting to join them as soon as the existing stock is gone. Having moved to an all new lineup I think it is very unlikely that Apple will immediately move to a completely new high-powered processor with its high powered companion chip, from a new fab at the start of its production run. These parts are going to start out relatively expensive and it is most likely that Apple's PowerMac (plus whatever IBM's plans are) will consume all of the available supply. A super-fast PowerMac will not canabilize PowerBook sales in an appreciable fashion, and so what if they do? The PowerMac has a high margin as well and people that want a portable simply aren't going to buy a desktop machine. This fall the 7457 will likely arrive and push the clock rates and battery life of the PowerBooks up beyond what can be achieved with the 970 on the 0.13 process. Once the PowerBook goes 970 it can't go back, so Apple won't take it that way until there is a clear advantage.[/list=1]
In general if you are confronted by a situation where multiple indicators seem to indicate a particular answer then that is the most likely answer. Why fight it? Until we get different information I don't see any particular reason to change my mind. A month either way isn't going to make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
1. Apple released Jaguar last August and the WWDC preview hints at Panther being released in roughly the same timeframe (Aug-Sept).
You're building the premise that Panther and the 970 are inextricably or conveniently linked. I agree that Panther appears to be a late summer, early fall release, but I don't think the 970 MUST be tied to Panther. Just my opinion.
Quote:
2. IBM's original 970 announcement said 2nd half 2003 (i.e. July or later) for full production and rumours are that they schedule is going well. Accounting for the time to get the chips from the IBM fab into the Apple factory and through the distribution network, shipping machines in the Aug-Sept time frame seems reasonable.
Rumors (which are worth what is paid for them: zilch) are that the 970 is well ahead of schedule, that the IBM Fab is working out very well, and that 970s are in production.
Getting the motherboards will take longer than getting the processors, given the "info" we've heard. Rumor is the IBM is "in production" of the 970, yet the Motherboard contracts have just been awarded (Asia). getting the relatively light, small processors from NY to a California plant is a two-day FedEx ride, once ready. The assembly stages can all be worked out with the preview 970s or duds that have the same physical characteristics. Getting the motherboards made and shipped to California might take slightly longer. Educated guesses are that the processors will take about a month to fab - I have no idea, but I'll use that timeframe. The motherboards will likely take slightly longer since that contract was just awarded a couple of weeks ago. Assume 7 weeks from now, just to pick a number from the ether. That means assembly begins around the first of June. We've heard nothing about a new portable motherboard.
Quote:
3. Supporting a new processor which has major differences (new scheduler in the compiler, 128-byte cache lines, new supervisor mode details, new virtual memory hardware, etc) requires at least a minor OS revision.
The very point of OS X is portability. The overlying OS is ignorant of the hardware to a great degree. The kernel handles that. I don't think the changes would be so widespread that they would have motivation to wait for Panther.
Quote:
4. The 970 isn't going to be the only new feature of these machines -- they are likely to have AGP 8x and possibly other goodies not yet seen. This will also require OS support.
This is stuff they could have implemented in-house months ago and have as part of the new motherboards.
Quote:
5. The more OS revisions you create, the more you have to support. If you are going to release a major OS update within a month anyhow, why put out an "extra" minor one to support new hardware that you could easily delay shipment of by up to a month (if at all).
6. We don't know if Panther will include 64-bit support. My position on this is that the OS internals are probably already 64-bit ready so why not include it at that level? The GUI libraries may not be ready for 64-bit, but that's not nearly as important as being ready to support 64-bit server applications.
7. Steve Jobs likes to make a big splash. If he has the option to do a double barreled introduction with a new super-fast OS running on a new super-fast Mac, then he probably will. These new toys may be in a demo-able state in June and WWDC has been delayed exactly so that SJ can do his thing... even if they don't actually ship until September. They'll probably start taking large numbers of pre-orders.
Apple cannot afford to delay shipping one day. The PowerMac sales are awful and Apple would lose millions and millions and millions of dollars if they withheld the release of faster computers at this point.
They wanted sales so badly that they intro'd the 17" PowerBook nearly 3 months before it shipped. I don't think they would wait for Panther if they didn't HAVE to.
If they can put out a 10.2.5 or .6 update that enables support for the 970, they will drastically increase PowerMac sales the day they start taking orders. If they hold off until Panther, they lose potential sales - sales they cannot afford to lose, I think.
Of course Panther may show off the 970 better than 10.2.x, but that's another selling point to get folks to upgrade to Panther, not a reason to delay ready products.
Quote:
8. The aluminum PowerBooks were just introduced, and there is 15" unit waiting to join them as soon as the existing stock is gone. Having moved to an all new lineup I think it is very unlikely that Apple will immediately move to a completely new high-powered processor with its high powered companion chip, from a new fab at the start of its production run. These parts are going to start out relatively expensive and it is most likely that Apple's PowerMac (plus whatever IBM's plans are) will consume all of the available supply. A super-fast PowerMac will not canabilize PowerBook sales in an appreciable fashion, and so what if they do? The PowerMac has a high margin as well and people that want a portable simply aren't going to buy a desktop machine. This fall the 7457 will likely arrive and push the clock rates and battery life of the PowerBooks up beyond what can be achieved with the 970 on the 0.13 process. Once the PowerBook goes 970 it can't go back, so Apple won't take it that way until there is a clear advantage.
The 7457 is a bird in the bush. The 970 MAY be one in the hand. I too doubt that the 970 will go portable first, but it would be a helluva surprise.
Basically, I see the financial motivations being paramount here. Apple has GOT to boost high-end sales to sustain profitability, and a few hundred thousand June/July/August PowerMac sales will do wonders for Apple's third and fourth financial quarters. If that means that Panther is a paid upgrade for some of those buyers, well, Apple's done that before, right?
Comments
<strong>
The 2.8 GHz P4 posts just under 1000 SPECfp, and it will be > 3 GHz by the time the 970 arrives. That seems "on par" to me. It will kick the snot out of the G4 though.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Re-capp needed (sorry):
It may be on-par SPEC wise, but what about cost and power dissappation?
There's more than one way to kick ass.
<strong>
Re-capp needed (sorry):
It may be on-par SPEC wise, but what about cost and power dissappation?
There's more than one way to kick ass.</strong><hr></blockquote>
No argument there, but those items aren't a big deal until we see how Apple takes advantage of them.
<strong>Nobody has anything to say about my dream? That's weird...</strong><hr></blockquote>
you're a geek, not martin luther king.
we're geeks: we rationalise not spiritualise.
ask your psych and he will tell you the only thing that's worth mentioning: "you're a geek
[ 02-16-2003: Message edited by: gar ]</p>
<strong>
What the hell does that mean. Rumors are rumors. And the bottom line is simply fun, isn't it?</strong><hr></blockquote>
'Offcial rumors' are those we all read on Macrumors, Looprumors, Think secret and so on.
'unofficial rumors' are those your aunts brothers moms friends butler told you...
I went into our Apple 'centre' in Notts.
I was lusting at the iMac 2. (As one does...)
He asked if he could help me...
I said I wasn't buying the gorgeous iMac2 until it had a decent processor in it. Say, a G5.
He then went onto say that I 'did know about the PPC difference.'
'Yeah...'
And he said...
'A 1 gig G4 equals a Pentium 3 gig processor...because it can get three times as much done in the same time...'
I was tired and didn't want to get into a preposterous argument.
It's b*ll*cks, but I'm glad to see the guys in Apple retail being a bit more aggressive! They were eating people alive as they got into the store. Hmmmm. Well, they're going to need people who can spout 'bullsh*t' if they think they can get to 10% with 1 gig G4s and overpriced specs.
He also said that the G5 probably won't arrive...and 'IF it did, it proabably won't be called a 'G5'...and '...that you'll probably had a year wait for it.'
(Yep, that's the last bit...right there....that's relevant to this thread. That's what Apple foot patrol think...)
Myself? I think a 1 gig G4 equals a 1.8 gig Pentium 4 if the wind is blowing its way.
I also think I won't rule out the possibility of a Motorola G5 this July and a 970 at a Macworld San Fran 2004 time frame.
But, a 'G5' in March next year? I hope not. I'm still on a 970 'fall' timeframe. It just feels right. But let's not rule out Apple's ability to 'surprise'TM us.
Lemon Bon Bon
<hr></blockquote>
And we've all seen (from Microsoft's example) how scrupulous companies are about adhering to the terms of consent decrees.
<img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[oyvey]" />
Quote:
Originally posted by Derrick 61:
<strong>I can tell you EXACTLY when the pMac 970 will be released...
One month after I buy a G4 tower!</strong><hr></blockquote>
So do it now!
Okay...I can't wait any longer for the 970 machines!
Dual 1.4GHz G4 ordered yesterday!
970 Macs will be announced in a month
Originally posted by Derrick 61
Okay...I can't wait any longer for the 970 machines!
Dual 1.4GHz G4 ordered yesterday!
970 Macs will be announced in a month
So why ordered the G4?
The date depends on him ordering now!
If he doesn't order now, they'll be delayed! Nooooo!
PowerBook 970s in May.
PowerMac 970s in June.
Hey, it's just as likely as the "one month" thing.
:-)
Originally posted by Lemon Bon Bon
I also think I won't rule out the possibility of a Motorola G5 this July and a 970 at a Macworld San Fran 2004 time frame.
Ah, conservative estimates; I like it, gives Apple a good margin for error.
As for the MOT G5, you appear to be waiting for Godot.
Originally posted by Kecksy
You guys forget. Apple can't release PPC970 based systems until they have OS that can run on it. Panther won't be ready until September.
why wait for panther, maybe it is possible to implement the crusial 64 bits and ppc970 only parts in 10.2 right away. i think that apples ppc970 prototypes actually run a tweaked 10.2. and not an early version of panther. so roll out the hardware with a working 10.2.6v64 os when ready and upgrade to 10.3 later.
Originally posted by Kecksy
You guys forget. Apple can't release PPC970 based systems until they have OS that can run on it. Panther won't be ready until September.
I agree with gar. It wouldn't take much to tweak the kernel to be 64bit aware enough that the OS could provide a 32 bit user space for apps via the chip's built in 32 bit compatibility mode.
That could be why the code name for Mac OS X 10.2.5 is "plaid". They may have had to come up with a code name in the "color" series for an unexpected revision prior to panther. (Maybe.)
Originally posted by Tomb of the Unknown
I agree with gar. It wouldn't take much to tweak the kernel to be 64bit aware enough that the OS could provide a 32 bit user space for apps via the chip's built in 32 bit compatibility mode.
That could be why the code name for Mac OS X 10.2.5 is "plaid". They may have had to come up with a code name in the "color" series for an unexpected revision prior to panther. (Maybe.)
But then again, 10.2.5 should have taken a bit more time then...
Maybe 10.2.6 will be rolled out, with 64 bit support as the only feature..
Originally posted by Tomb of the Unknown
I agree with gar.
That could be why the code name for Mac OS X 10.2.5 is "plaid". They may have had to come up with a code name in the "color"(Maybe.)
Hmmmmm ....
Good call Gar & T.O.T.U.
Programmer?
Paging Programmer?
Thoughts?
No I think that they will colect enough 970's to enable an accross the range launch at the professional end and that means. PowerMacs, PowerBooks and Xserve/Raid.
If Panther is really going to be Spetember (and the timing could be a red-herring) then that is when I expect the launch of 970 based machines.
[list=1][*]Apple released Jaguar last August and the WWDC preview hints at Panther being released in roughly the same timeframe (Aug-Sept).[*]IBM's original 970 announcement said 2nd half 2003 (i.e. July or later) for full production and rumours are that they schedule is going well. Accounting for the time to get the chips from the IBM fab into the Apple factory and through the distribution network, shipping machines in the Aug-Sept time frame seems reasonable.[*]Supporting a new processor which has major differences (new scheduler in the compiler, 128-byte cache lines, new supervisor mode details, new virtual memory hardware, etc) requires at least a minor OS revision.[*]The 970 isn't going to be the only new feature of these machines -- they are likely to have AGP 8x and possibly other goodies not yet seen. This will also require OS support.[*]The more OS revisions you create, the more you have to support. If you are going to release a major OS update within a month anyhow, why put out an "extra" minor one to support new hardware that you could easily delay shipment of by up to a month (if at all).[*]We don't know if Panther will include 64-bit support. My position on this is that the OS internals are probably already 64-bit ready so why not include it at that level? The GUI libraries may not be ready for 64-bit, but that's not nearly as important as being ready to support 64-bit server applications.[*]Steve Jobs likes to make a big splash. If he has the option to do a double barreled introduction with a new super-fast OS running on a new super-fast Mac, then he probably will. These new toys may be in a demo-able state in June and WWDC has been delayed exactly so that SJ can do his thing... even if they don't actually ship until September. They'll probably start taking large numbers of pre-orders.[*]The aluminum PowerBooks were just introduced, and there is 15" unit waiting to join them as soon as the existing stock is gone. Having moved to an all new lineup I think it is very unlikely that Apple will immediately move to a completely new high-powered processor with its high powered companion chip, from a new fab at the start of its production run. These parts are going to start out relatively expensive and it is most likely that Apple's PowerMac (plus whatever IBM's plans are) will consume all of the available supply. A super-fast PowerMac will not canabilize PowerBook sales in an appreciable fashion, and so what if they do? The PowerMac has a high margin as well and people that want a portable simply aren't going to buy a desktop machine. This fall the 7457 will likely arrive and push the clock rates and battery life of the PowerBooks up beyond what can be achieved with the 970 on the 0.13 process. Once the PowerBook goes 970 it can't go back, so Apple won't take it that way until there is a clear advantage.[/list=1]
In general if you are confronted by a situation where multiple indicators seem to indicate a particular answer then that is the most likely answer. Why fight it? Until we get different information I don't see any particular reason to change my mind. A month either way isn't going to make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
1. Apple released Jaguar last August and the WWDC preview hints at Panther being released in roughly the same timeframe (Aug-Sept).
You're building the premise that Panther and the 970 are inextricably or conveniently linked. I agree that Panther appears to be a late summer, early fall release, but I don't think the 970 MUST be tied to Panther. Just my opinion.
2. IBM's original 970 announcement said 2nd half 2003 (i.e. July or later) for full production and rumours are that they schedule is going well. Accounting for the time to get the chips from the IBM fab into the Apple factory and through the distribution network, shipping machines in the Aug-Sept time frame seems reasonable.
Rumors (which are worth what is paid for them: zilch) are that the 970 is well ahead of schedule, that the IBM Fab is working out very well, and that 970s are in production.
Getting the motherboards will take longer than getting the processors, given the "info" we've heard. Rumor is the IBM is "in production" of the 970, yet the Motherboard contracts have just been awarded (Asia). getting the relatively light, small processors from NY to a California plant is a two-day FedEx ride, once ready. The assembly stages can all be worked out with the preview 970s or duds that have the same physical characteristics. Getting the motherboards made and shipped to California might take slightly longer. Educated guesses are that the processors will take about a month to fab - I have no idea, but I'll use that timeframe. The motherboards will likely take slightly longer since that contract was just awarded a couple of weeks ago. Assume 7 weeks from now, just to pick a number from the ether. That means assembly begins around the first of June. We've heard nothing about a new portable motherboard.
3. Supporting a new processor which has major differences (new scheduler in the compiler, 128-byte cache lines, new supervisor mode details, new virtual memory hardware, etc) requires at least a minor OS revision.
The very point of OS X is portability. The overlying OS is ignorant of the hardware to a great degree. The kernel handles that. I don't think the changes would be so widespread that they would have motivation to wait for Panther.
4. The 970 isn't going to be the only new feature of these machines -- they are likely to have AGP 8x and possibly other goodies not yet seen. This will also require OS support.
This is stuff they could have implemented in-house months ago and have as part of the new motherboards.
5. The more OS revisions you create, the more you have to support. If you are going to release a major OS update within a month anyhow, why put out an "extra" minor one to support new hardware that you could easily delay shipment of by up to a month (if at all).
6. We don't know if Panther will include 64-bit support. My position on this is that the OS internals are probably already 64-bit ready so why not include it at that level? The GUI libraries may not be ready for 64-bit, but that's not nearly as important as being ready to support 64-bit server applications.
7. Steve Jobs likes to make a big splash. If he has the option to do a double barreled introduction with a new super-fast OS running on a new super-fast Mac, then he probably will. These new toys may be in a demo-able state in June and WWDC has been delayed exactly so that SJ can do his thing... even if they don't actually ship until September. They'll probably start taking large numbers of pre-orders.
Apple cannot afford to delay shipping one day. The PowerMac sales are awful and Apple would lose millions and millions and millions of dollars if they withheld the release of faster computers at this point.
They wanted sales so badly that they intro'd the 17" PowerBook nearly 3 months before it shipped. I don't think they would wait for Panther if they didn't HAVE to.
If they can put out a 10.2.5 or .6 update that enables support for the 970, they will drastically increase PowerMac sales the day they start taking orders. If they hold off until Panther, they lose potential sales - sales they cannot afford to lose, I think.
Of course Panther may show off the 970 better than 10.2.x, but that's another selling point to get folks to upgrade to Panther, not a reason to delay ready products.
8. The aluminum PowerBooks were just introduced, and there is 15" unit waiting to join them as soon as the existing stock is gone. Having moved to an all new lineup I think it is very unlikely that Apple will immediately move to a completely new high-powered processor with its high powered companion chip, from a new fab at the start of its production run. These parts are going to start out relatively expensive and it is most likely that Apple's PowerMac (plus whatever IBM's plans are) will consume all of the available supply. A super-fast PowerMac will not canabilize PowerBook sales in an appreciable fashion, and so what if they do? The PowerMac has a high margin as well and people that want a portable simply aren't going to buy a desktop machine. This fall the 7457 will likely arrive and push the clock rates and battery life of the PowerBooks up beyond what can be achieved with the 970 on the 0.13 process. Once the PowerBook goes 970 it can't go back, so Apple won't take it that way until there is a clear advantage.
The 7457 is a bird in the bush. The 970 MAY be one in the hand. I too doubt that the 970 will go portable first, but it would be a helluva surprise.
Basically, I see the financial motivations being paramount here. Apple has GOT to boost high-end sales to sustain profitability, and a few hundred thousand June/July/August PowerMac sales will do wonders for Apple's third and fourth financial quarters. If that means that Panther is a paid upgrade for some of those buyers, well, Apple's done that before, right?