You're ignoring something rather major. New software tends to be installed at the time of purchase, or shortly thereafter. The buying cycle of computers means that software companies are under far more pressure to add features and improvements to their software than they are to cater to installed base. Hardware installations tend to happen in an effort to boost software performance. People just don't buy CS2, or shake, or FCP 5 to use (heavily) on their 3-5 year old systems. A few hobbiests might (just to prove a point), but pros aren't wasting their time trying to do that. Which is not to say that pros don't use older equipment, they do: they just keep the older software on it -- because it fits their use and they know it well. It's more likely that these users take old licences to new machines, than it is that they acquire new licencees for old machines.
That's why we'll only see, and only need, one major PPC (fat binary) update of existing software. By the time a second would be needed, the "installed base" would virtually all be ready for a hardware upgrade and by then they will have only Intel options. PPC updating will continue, but it won't have all the capabilities of Intel versions -- just older PPC can't do everything newer PPC can do.
Transitions will be fast. All the laptops, the mini, and possibly the iMacs will be Intel in '06. The desktops in '07. The only question is whether Apple chooses to keep a "legacy" Powermac G5 around for some of it's pro users who want to port software over.
Software is a much bigger investment in time/training, debugging, and overall costs than hardware is. When you think about "installed base" you should think about application users, that's the true installed base, NOT, machines sold. You build machines for the software user.
If you're Apple, you worry about making Rosetta, and fat binaries in an effort to ensure the quality of the Intel experience -- get apps transitioned quickly, let old apps work well on new hardware -- because that's where you're going with your machines, and where some PPC software will end up. The spin-off effect is that PPC machines benefit from a period of continued support, but that PPC hardware base is not the reason for your actions.
Last gen hardware is never an long-term concern for new generation software.
That's why we'll only see, and only need, one major PPC (fat binary) update of existing software. By the time a second would be needed, the "installed base" would virtually all be ready for a hardware upgrade and by then they will have only Intel options.
Too far optimistic. This holds for the pro market and for nothing else. The big mass is the consumer market, which updates hardware much slower.
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PPC updating will continue, but it won't have all the capabilities of Intel versions -- just older PPC can't do everything newer PPC can do.
Here we agree.
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Transitions will be fast. All the laptops, the mini, and possibly the iMacs will be Intel in '06. The desktops in '07. The only question is whether Apple chooses to keep a "legacy" Powermac G5 around for some of it's pro users who want to port software over.
Well, that remains to be seen. No one can say at this point if there are bumps down the transition road. Perhaps it will go fine, perhaps not.
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The spin-off effect is that PPC machines benefit from a period of continued support, but that PPC hardware base is not the reason for your actions.
Not in the long term of course, but it is in the beginning. Apple will need to continue selling OS X to older Macs for some time, otherwise the development will suffer. From past experience, this covers, more or less, a 5 year period of hardware generations.
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Last gen hardware is never an long-term concern for new generation software.
Apple will sell some PPC macs at least 'till '07. I think they're going to have all their major products on Intel by the end of O7, and the majority by mid '07. A legacy mac PPC may stick around however...
Add a three year extended warrantee period, that means support till 2010. However, software update cycles are starting to stabilize around 18-24 months. Assuming we see retail versions of dual binary OS next year, and first party apps late next year. Two more years for the major updates puts them in circa 2008. Software which should be perfectly usable on the very last of the PPC macs (sold in '07) and will take users through to 2010. I would not expect a second major update at that time to maintain anything close to a 100% feature set, or support of new features.
How good is new feature set support today for macs sold in 2001? This is no different. You don't expect new feature support four years down the line, even on the same hardware platform, so you have even less reason to expect it after a transition which requires both Apple and software devs to redirect resources into the building of Apps for their then current (not past) paying customers.
Consumers are not very problematic. PPC owners will get 10.5.xxx and one more nice bundle update. Intel owners will get all that stuff on their machines too. PPC Office users have '04 -- which will be absolutely fine for years, and one update, which lengthens that out even farther. CS users have CS2, and may/may not get anything else, but can pretty much get any job done with that.
Machines get left behind, get used to it, it's really OK. My original 12" PB still does everything it did the day I bought it. Any software improvements have just been gravy, but eventually the train pulls away...
My meaning of "doubtful" is not so imprecise; it has more to do with what relativity implies.
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Machines get left behind, get used to it, it's really OK.
I never said the opposite. This is a matter of fact. I have just a different view of how Apple will handle the transition.
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My original 12" PB still does everything it did the day I bought it. Any software improvements have just been gravy, but eventually the train pulls away...
Which model exactly is this? The original, first generation 12"?
Yep, original 867Mhz, USB1.1, VGA-out 12" PB. See, can't connect a new iPod at full USB2 speed, and Apple dropped FW, I use a dual input LCD (can't use DVI only). It's OK. Everything still works. Could be faster, but running office, browsing the web, a fooling with PS, it goes well enough...
troll or no troll (and some offensive posts are more of a burden to read than some stupid questions), i gave my 3 years old Powerbook 1Ghz G4 to my son, bought a 17" iMac last week, to be able to wait till rev.B of Mactel notebooks, and will decide in the second part of next year which of the new babies Apple will come up with is worth me spending more money.
I have a working machine for the next 3 to 4 years, whith a huge collection of software i do not intend to upgrade (or cannot) for when intel machines come up, and when there is a really good ibook or powerbook out, i will buy one for travel, and set up aairport network home.
I would say apple will support PPC for 4 to 6 years from now, at the maximum!
and all the new features, and new apps, will not be available with a super-slow G5 in 5 years! look at the required spec for iLife! a 5 year-old mac (iMac G3 500) cannot run any of them but iTunes!
A computer is a 3 years investment.
Objection!
My first Mac LC lasted 7yrs
Quadra 700 = 7yrs
iMac G3 350 = until now, say 6 yrs,
PB 1ghz 12" = until now, with an estimated lifetime of another 4-5 years.
Comments
That's why we'll only see, and only need, one major PPC (fat binary) update of existing software. By the time a second would be needed, the "installed base" would virtually all be ready for a hardware upgrade and by then they will have only Intel options. PPC updating will continue, but it won't have all the capabilities of Intel versions -- just older PPC can't do everything newer PPC can do.
Transitions will be fast. All the laptops, the mini, and possibly the iMacs will be Intel in '06. The desktops in '07. The only question is whether Apple chooses to keep a "legacy" Powermac G5 around for some of it's pro users who want to port software over.
Software is a much bigger investment in time/training, debugging, and overall costs than hardware is. When you think about "installed base" you should think about application users, that's the true installed base, NOT, machines sold. You build machines for the software user.
If you're Apple, you worry about making Rosetta, and fat binaries in an effort to ensure the quality of the Intel experience -- get apps transitioned quickly, let old apps work well on new hardware -- because that's where you're going with your machines, and where some PPC software will end up. The spin-off effect is that PPC machines benefit from a period of continued support, but that PPC hardware base is not the reason for your actions.
Last gen hardware is never an long-term concern for new generation software.
Originally posted by Matsu
That's why we'll only see, and only need, one major PPC (fat binary) update of existing software. By the time a second would be needed, the "installed base" would virtually all be ready for a hardware upgrade and by then they will have only Intel options.
Too far optimistic. This holds for the pro market and for nothing else. The big mass is the consumer market, which updates hardware much slower.
PPC updating will continue, but it won't have all the capabilities of Intel versions -- just older PPC can't do everything newer PPC can do.
Here we agree.
Transitions will be fast. All the laptops, the mini, and possibly the iMacs will be Intel in '06. The desktops in '07. The only question is whether Apple chooses to keep a "legacy" Powermac G5 around for some of it's pro users who want to port software over.
Well, that remains to be seen. No one can say at this point if there are bumps down the transition road. Perhaps it will go fine, perhaps not.
The spin-off effect is that PPC machines benefit from a period of continued support, but that PPC hardware base is not the reason for your actions.
Not in the long term of course, but it is in the beginning. Apple will need to continue selling OS X to older Macs for some time, otherwise the development will suffer. From past experience, this covers, more or less, a 5 year period of hardware generations.
Last gen hardware is never an long-term concern for new generation software.
Very doubtful and relative statement.
Apple will sell some PPC macs at least 'till '07. I think they're going to have all their major products on Intel by the end of O7, and the majority by mid '07. A legacy mac PPC may stick around however...
Add a three year extended warrantee period, that means support till 2010. However, software update cycles are starting to stabilize around 18-24 months. Assuming we see retail versions of dual binary OS next year, and first party apps late next year. Two more years for the major updates puts them in circa 2008. Software which should be perfectly usable on the very last of the PPC macs (sold in '07) and will take users through to 2010. I would not expect a second major update at that time to maintain anything close to a 100% feature set, or support of new features.
How good is new feature set support today for macs sold in 2001? This is no different. You don't expect new feature support four years down the line, even on the same hardware platform, so you have even less reason to expect it after a transition which requires both Apple and software devs to redirect resources into the building of Apps for their then current (not past) paying customers.
Consumers are not very problematic. PPC owners will get 10.5.xxx and one more nice bundle update. Intel owners will get all that stuff on their machines too. PPC Office users have '04 -- which will be absolutely fine for years, and one update, which lengthens that out even farther. CS users have CS2, and may/may not get anything else, but can pretty much get any job done with that.
Machines get left behind, get used to it, it's really OK. My original 12" PB still does everything it did the day I bought it. Any software improvements have just been gravy, but eventually the train pulls away...
Originally posted by Matsu
Relative yes, but not so imprecise.
My meaning of "doubtful" is not so imprecise; it has more to do with what relativity implies.
Machines get left behind, get used to it, it's really OK.
I never said the opposite. This is a matter of fact. I have just a different view of how Apple will handle the transition.
My original 12" PB still does everything it did the day I bought it. Any software improvements have just been gravy, but eventually the train pulls away...
Which model exactly is this? The original, first generation 12"?
troll or no troll (and some offensive posts are more of a burden to read than some stupid questions), i gave my 3 years old Powerbook 1Ghz G4 to my son, bought a 17" iMac last week, to be able to wait till rev.B of Mactel notebooks, and will decide in the second part of next year which of the new babies Apple will come up with is worth me spending more money.
I have a working machine for the next 3 to 4 years, whith a huge collection of software i do not intend to upgrade (or cannot) for when intel machines come up, and when there is a really good ibook or powerbook out, i will buy one for travel, and set up aairport network home.
Have a happy New Year (yeah, even the flamers)
Originally posted by belzebuth
...
I would say apple will support PPC for 4 to 6 years from now, at the maximum!
and all the new features, and new apps, will not be available with a super-slow G5 in 5 years! look at the required spec for iLife! a 5 year-old mac (iMac G3 500) cannot run any of them but iTunes!
A computer is a 3 years investment.
Objection!
My first Mac LC lasted 7yrs
Quadra 700 = 7yrs
iMac G3 350 = until now, say 6 yrs,
PB 1ghz 12" = until now, with an estimated lifetime of another 4-5 years.