Dan_Dilger

dewme said:

The reality is that the US will never allow a non-US company to establish communication infrastructure in the US system, especially one that is under the aegis of the only country in the world that remotely justifies the massive military expenditures that have been laid out in a post Cold War world to continue. The US government doesn’t want China or anybody else tapping into its global communication networks. It needs to reserve that right for itself. 

Well except Finland (Nokia), France (Alcatel-Lucent), Korea (Samsung), Sweden (Ericsson), etc

But yeah, maybe not the PRC, Iran or North Korea, or a company working for all three. That might be against the national interests of the U.S. 

avon b7 said:

Huawei is not China. China is not Huawei.

That's not really true is it? 

But addressing your other comments: totally agree that the Trump admin screwed Google to blunt Huawei. But totally have to refute the idea that profits won't matter in determining who can pay to line up the scarce components and production they need. 

Apple not only has the money to pay for scarce and expensive parts and production capacity, but can also remain profitable while building "smaller numbers" (33.8M last Q2, IDC estimated) of more valuable devices at an ASP of around $800. Huawei is mostly selling $200 handsets in fantastic volumes (58.7M last Q2). How much can it afford to pay to get those devices built in current constrained conditions when it was barely making a profit producing them in prime, contention free settings? This is pretty basic logic we're dealing with.

avon b7 said:

Huawei has more likelihood of being affected simply because its share of the pie is huge.

The reality is that everyone will be affected to the same degree. A closed factory isn't outputting to anybody. 

Thanks for the official comments straight from Huawei, Avon! You always bring out the talking points without any distractions of personal opinion.

Yet the article outlines why this isn't just about "a closed factory." Huawei is specifically dealing with delayed launches, its own delayed dev conference, the cancelation of MWC (not just as a handset vendor, but the leading cheap 5G network vendor), and the fact that Huawei doesn't make money, because its just following orders of the PRC to promote national achievement. The fact that Huawei has an online brand doesn't negate what Counterpoint is reporting: Huawei is much more of a retail store brand than Xiaomi and others. 

"As far as U.S accusations are concerned, they are just that, accusations" Sorry that's a lie. the first example is clearly Cisco. Huawei straight up stole Cisco's IOS software and admitted it. It's now passing that off as having happened "long ago" because it first occurred in the early 2000s. It has clearly backed a string of IP thefts. Look at its AirPods and everything it does. It's nothing but a rip-off company. 

Crypto AG isn't evidence of anything other than that every nation is seeking intelligence. To assume that China ISN'T and should be allowed to install its networking gear and devices everywhere is the height of absolute foolishness. China is actively spying on US companies without any doubt. The country has zero respect for IP, somewhat understandably. If you are marching in the Red Revolution and working for its state businesses, of course you should promote Huawei. But don't for one second suggest that China isn't actively spying on the rest of the world or isn't interested. That's just absurd. 

"Huawei will be hit harder simply as a percentage because it has a larger slice of the pie. Everyone will be hit hard though" 

Except that Huawei only has a big slice of the unit pie. It's making very little profit from all of its shipments. As Samsung's results show, losing some volume when you're already making very little results in a huge crash in profits. Apple lost unit sales last year much more sharply than Samsung but its profitability, and the health of its side businesses, meant that its hit to earnings was much lower. 

What we do know is that Apple has been wildly successful at competing against larger businesses and handling devastating shocks to its supply chain-like Japan in 2012. iPad 2 buyers didn't even notice an interruption. Huawei, Samsung and others have struggled to turn a profit in the best of conditions, and have had miserable sales in the premium tier. Huawei ships out middle tier knockoff phones and pays influencers to suggest they are just cheaper iPhones.

Check out the cameras on even high-end Huawei's. They are crap. I spent a week comparing results with a friend who had a fancy P30. Color was bad, exposure was bad, the UI sucks and is complex and ugly. For a company being fed by the PRC military, I'd expect more. 

But overall, you are totally wrong. Huawei is the worst positioned to deal with interruptions in China because its sales are totally concentrated there. Duh.

seanismorris said:

I’m not sure Samsung should be listed with the other manufacturers.
”Samsung Mobile Phone Manufacturing Locations
As of 2019, Samsung has its mobile phone manufacturing factories at 6 locations – Vietnam, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and South Korea. 50% of Samsung mobile phones are made in Vietnam and 8% in Korea. Rest is manufactured in India, Brazil, Indonesia and China.Nov 20, 2019”

A variety of phones are built outside of China. However, Samsung is still affected both with relation to relying on components and materials from China, as well as the interruption of events and trade shows. As the article noted, Samsung’s recent performance in smartphones has been so bad even before the issue that it doesn’t need much impact from coronavirus to continue its failing streak. 

sirlance99 said:

What if you write a editorial and nobody cares? Because that’s what this is. 

You can write mean barbs, but you are wrong. 

I've been writing about the direction of tech for well over 15 years and have a documented pattern of being consistently right about a lot of once-controversial ideas. 

I happen to have helped a lot of people become millionaires and I've being taken care of pretty well, thanks.