tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

And if you think de-dollarisation isn't underway, that is fine.

".. owing to the increasing awareness of the economic and geopolitical rationales for de-dollarization and the fact that major developing countries have been at the forefront of the movement, the trend toward further de-dollarization seems unstoppable."

https://internationalbanker.com/finance/the-dollar-still-dominates-but-de-dollarization-is-unstoppable/

" As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB."

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/hf02-start-of-de-dollarization-chinas-gradual-move-away-from-the-usd/#:~:text=The Start of De-Dollarization: China's Move Away from the,that's no longer the case.

Just random Google results. 

You lost me at your rambling and massively long spaghetti post #31. Perhaps you should opt for some AI assistance?
 
You might want to actually attempt to understand the details a bit better before you post. Yeah, countries are attempting de-dollarization, but so far, with little success. Perhaps that reason is that the BRICS economies aren't doing so well; all of them collective are barely larger than the U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 2nd largest economy in the world, that would be China, is in economic trouble.

China's rise? I'm old enough to remember when you were certain that China was going to exceed the U.S. GDP.

That isn't going to happen, and that is plainly on Xi.

Your 'little success' is totally irrelevant. My quote on China's de-dollarisation paints a very clear picture.

Your post was in reply to me saying de-dollarisation is underway.

More to the point are the reasons why it is underway. 

Please quote me on the China GDP claims. Why is it even so important when both countries take up a huge swathe of global GDP, leaving even the third place well behind?

As you well know, China overtook the US in PPP back in 2016 but I already know you won't accept that as a metric. However, that is irrelevant. 

And what do BRICS economies have to do with anything? That is a ridiculous statement.

China is still building out massive critical infrastructure projects everywhere outside China on BRICS/BRI policy (ports, airports, ICT, health, rail... plus the technology tools for managing that infrastructure which is all digital) and staking an ever increasing claim to business in the Middle East. 

As for China's rise, well yeah, that was my point, wasn't it? . They've 'risen' and that's why the US is acting like it is in the technology stakes. 

Flailing wildly with no real coherent ideas. Just whack-a-mole reactions. 

Compare the Obama era China to the Biden era China. See any difference? 

So what have US 'counter' China efforts actually achieved? 

Literally nothing because China rose just like everyone knew it would. 

Yet the price paid in self harm for US semiconductor interests is painfully evident. And it's highly likely that business (billions upon billions) is never coming back.

When Obama was initially in office, Xi was not. Chairman/President/ General Secretary Xi didn't happen until Obama's second term.

What changed? Xi became more authoritarian, that's a fact, and later, due to China's COVID response, supply chains began shifting out of China.

What has the U.S. counter to China actually achieved? Well, it hard to state whether China's economy has slowed due to those supply chain shifts, or Xi's policies, but the fact that the U.S. has made re-shoring and friend-shoring the point of its economic policy, while China's growth has slowed seem to indicate a bit of both. China's economy is in very poor shape right now, and with the EU likely having to have tariffs on Chinese EV's, China is going to be very unhappy and retaliate, which is expected.

You still seem to be unaware that Xi's threats of invasion of Taiwan are threats against the global economy, and for a fact, if Xi invades Taiwan, the Global economy will be in shock. That won't be on the U.S. for that happening, it will be on Xi, who likely won't care at that point. How bloody that battle will be is unknown, but it will be the most intense in history, but for a very short time. China will likely not recover, even if it successfully invades Taiwan.

Meanwhile, all of the tech stocks are up, driven by AI, so I don't see that China is of much concern to ASML, et al, especially if the EU follows the U.S. to fund more fabs, which it seems to be inclined to do. What doesn't go to China will go elsewhere, and China will surely be able to build all of the power plants that it needs for all of the older tech that will drive its AI efforts.

There you go! Full on politics. 

Try to keep things technology focused. 

Xi is irrelevant to my point. The point was that US foreign policy saw China (not the leader!) as a rising power. Technology was one of pillars of that rise. 

The Pacific Pivot was partly a move to suppress it. Followed up by US tariffs which are ongoing. 

China has risen nevertheless. 

Policy failed. 

Saying 'well we don't know how effective the moves were' or blaming Xi are irrelevant to my point. 

In technology (the industrial revolution of this century) sanctions are not working and are doomed to failure. They were from day one. 

Just today (Reuters):

"During Nvidia's first quarter earnings on Wednesday, senior executives warned that the company's business in China is "substantially" lower than in the past due to the sanctions.

Nvidia's most advanced AI chip it developed for the China market has got off to a weak start, with abundant supply forcing it to be priced below a rival chip from Chinese tech giant Huawei. 
... 

Our data centre revenue in China is down significantly from the level prior to the imposition of the new export control restrictions in October
... 

Analysts said while Nvidia was trying hard to capture share in a market it cannot afford to lose, the outlook is increasingly uncertain.
... 

Nvidia is definitely preparing for the worst in the long term"

https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-cuts-china-prices-huawei-chip-fight-sources-say-2024-05-24/

That is a simple and very current snapshot. 

So US semiconductor interests get shot to pieces (by friendly fire) through them not being allowed to do business with their biggest customers. Revenues fall as a result and from those revenues R&D is supposed to lead to the technologies of tomorrow. 

Less revenue. Less financing for R&D. Less technology for tomorrow. 

Not only that. Your main commercial market (that you are now unable to cater to on competitive terms) begins creating solutions that will directly compete with you in the future! 

That's Nvidia's reality and the reality of every single US technology company. They are all in the same leaky boat. 

You can 'want to believe' Biden when he says the US can 'out-compete' anyone but deep down, you know its just an election year soundbyte that is going straight into the bin. 

After all, this is the same person who so strongly criticised Trump's tariffs on China, saying they only cost American citizens more money. That was pre-election too. 

The point, and you know that you have been avoiding it, is that Xi has threatened, over and over again, to invade Taiwan. More than that, China has been supporting Russia with dual use material. That doesn't endear China to the U.S. and the EU at all.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-dual-use-chinese-goods-helping-russias-war-machine-13136786

Good luck on China picking up the pace in technology without the West, and more so, without the revenues from the West to fund the Chinese economy. I'm sure that China will be able to compete using less efficient technology while plugged into an array of additional coal fired power plants, but otherwise, they aren't going to catch up a rate fast enough to make a difference in the semiconductor market.

Yes, there are sales that are not being made into China, but at the same time, AI investment is bringing new sales to Intel, Nvidia, AMD, and yes, even Apple.

Your support of authoritarianism is something I noted when I saw some of your first posts, wrt using facial recognition on Catalonian protestors. What you post today is yet more indication of your lack of moral framework, and I find your support of authoritarians loathsome..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vWCzfX9MI4

How Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism is killing China’s economy | Business Beyond

You can't help yourself. Authoritarian or not is NOT the problem. 

That is irrelevant. Forget that in this discussion. 

The US does massive business with the country and is fine with that. As per Trump, the US actually wants more business with China! 

The US has literally depended on Saudi Arabia for decades. Another authoritarian state (which it literally armed to the teeth!). 

The US does NOT have an issue with authoritarian governments just because they are authoritarian.

No. What the real issue is, is if a state can challenge US hegemony. Then the US will use (is using!) any means it can to thwart it.

Authoritarian or not! 

And ironically, that makes its actions, well, authoritarian! Breaking UN charter agreements, WTO agreements, not joining the ICC system (for fear of finding itself on the hook multiple times over), etc.

China has largely been non-interventionist. The US has invaded countries at will, effected regime change, caused untold civilian deaths (directly and indirectly), mismanaged both Iraq and Afghanistan...

China is a poodle in comparison. 

That is irrelevant here, though. 

Like I said earlier. Taiwan is an afterthought for the US. It doesn't give a damn about it. What it cares about is TSMC. 

That means technology.

Set aside your political ideas and look at the technology side. 

As China has upped it technological capabilities to the point of actively challenging US influence, the US decided that couldn't be allowed and it was clear about it (re-read Barr's speech). 

How they are going about it, though, is doing more harm than good to its own interests. That is my point. 

US semiconductor interests are literally getting pummeled in the process and all you relentlessly point to is Xi and authoritarianism. Let it go!

Nvidia (and by extension, the US semiconductor industry) is dependent on China for key revenues. Export restrictions are effectively tying its hands behind its back and accelerating China's (already advanced) progress. 

Catalonian protestors? Facial recognition technology? I have no idea where you want to go with that but I can guarantee you, wherever it is, you are mistaken. As usual. 

You definitely don't know what happened here on the night of September 7th 2017 and why it was called a blow to democracy. Do you know why those Catalan politicians ended up in prison?

Don't bother answering that. 

Refocus your thoughts onto the technology side and its impact. 

Gee, I just can't refocus my thoughts when I know that China is threatening Taiwan, but you, as usual seem fine with that. Naturally, I would like to see less Western technology sold into China that gives China better weapons systems.

Bending the conversation to the "losses" that Western companies will see, while at the same time, Nvidia has reached $2.6T in market value seems to be at odds. In fact, it is China that is seeing losses, for numerous reasons. I'm fine with letting China build its own semiconductors, but without Western technology. We'll see how that works for them in five years of throwing massive resources at that.

tmay said:

blastdoor said:

The best deterrence would be for the Allies to show they can scale up defense production. Right now, they’re kind of trying but kind of failing. Nothing will encourage China more than a Russian win in Ukraine due to a failure to supply Ukraine with enough anmo. That would be a clear sign of western weakness, and Taiwan could basically kiss its freedom goodbye.

Exactly right.

I would note that the U.S. and Germany, have been especially "timid" in allowing their weapons systems to interdict Russian forces in Russia, as well as destroy Russian military production at the source. Of note, recently developed Russian systems have fallen to Western weapons systems that are decades old; Russian hardware just isn't that great.

melgross said:

avon b7 said:

It's all pretty much nonsense from a chip perspective.

Only a tiny fraction of the world's chip output is on cutting edge nodes. What makes the world go around is everything else that isn't cutting edge. The much older, more mature nodes. 

There are strategic commercial reasons behind China not having access to cutting edge nodes so the most likely outcome of hostilities is old-fashioned, ehem, 'anonymous' physical destruction, a la Nord Stream, for example and the bulk of our telecommunications runs over undersea cabling too so that is guaranteed to get the snip if things go wrong. Satellite communications will also be interfered with. 

That would see a lot of already fabricated chips with very little to do. 

Sanctions have only accelerated China's chip efforts and determination and, as we move beyond silicon, new solutions will come to market (phototonics are showing promise). Possibly for highly specialised fields first but 'kill switches' are simply spanners in the works when it comes to fabrication. 

Apple took a huge risk in putting all its chip related eggs into one basket mostly in Taiwan. It's paid off so far but the risk (political, economic, natural disaster or otherwise) remains and they are seeking to change that slowly. A wise move. 

This is one area in which we can agree. Telling China that we’re not going to sell you the most advanced chips is just going to spur them on to spend a few dozen more billion on figuring out how to do it themselves. China is not Russia. Russia hasn’t the talent or money to compete. China, even with its current economic problems, does.

China's economy is in shambles, so the level of effort to recreate the entire supply chain to compete in leading edge nodes isn't something that will happen very rapidly, if at all. It certainly will be more than a "few dozen more billion".

China not having access to leading edge nodes for AI, for example, maintains the edge that the U.S. and the Western World have on weapons development, anti-ship missiles, as an example, a primary constraint on any attempt of invasion by China.

The greatest danger to Taiwan is though the end of the decade, as the potential window for a successful invasion closes.

robin huber said:

Has no idea the fab machinery was Dutch! Why haven’t we bought our own “busses” from them. If the machine does most of the work, where is the labor cost saving by having chips made in Taiwan?

40domi said:

It's about time someone, took those corrupt Eurocrats to court!!!

tmay said:

avon b7 said:

22july2013 said:

But still you ... keep buying devices assembled in communist China. How coherent.

I didn't read the points that you and jimh2 were discussing, but I'm here just to point out that some (four) iPhone models are assembled in India, not China. And even those that are assembled in China are assembled by Foxconn, whose HQ (and paid taxes) are in Taiwan. India isn't a particularly strong democracy on the democracy meter, but Taiwan sure is (it's even higher than the USA.) Still, I advise my friends to buy the iPhone models assembled in India. But I suspect that many of the components used in India come from China. I do my best to avoid China. I never buy any product in any store unless I check if it's made in China (or other horrible countries) and I pay more for things that aren't made there.

I think you are missing some key points here. 

It isn't just manufacturing. Apple itself has reportedly had strong economic ties with that 'horrible' country:

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/facing-hostile-chinese-authorities-apple-ceo-signed-275-billion-deal-with-them

And what of the workers? Are they horrible too? 

Is it because it's a communist country? Because so is Vietnam. 

If you want change, you are far better off pushing your own democratic government for that but, for all the bluster, the US still has a gigantic trade relationship with China and it is not going to change any time soon.

You can also send a message to Apple by not buying their products at all. Why buy an Apple product made in India when it is the company (not the product) that is more than willing to do business in 'horrible' China? 

Isn't every country on the planet doing business with China? China has pulled millions of people out of poverty thanks to that business. It has made life better for the inhabitants of those countries (US included) through cheaper products. 

Yes, local manufacturing has reduced as a result but no one has cared until now, that China is now vying for the top positions in the different leagues. And moving production back to local settings will push prices up. Apple already knows that anything produced by TSMC locally will be more expensive so I'm glad you accept that without question. 

I'm not sure others will though. 

Thanks so much for your support of China. Your talking points are appropriate to something pre 2012 and Chairman Xi. 

Times have changed, and China is considered a military threat by its neighbors, as it acts as a bully in the South China Sea. This U.S. has been, and is in fact changing, its trade relationship with China, and not to the benefit of China.

COVID opened the door to this, when China faltered in its place in the supply chain, one of many reasons why Apple began shifting said supply chain to other countries.

China's demographics and economy are not as rosy as they were in 2012, and the future does not look all that great for China. But sure, China is spending a whole lot on its military, much more than people can imagine. What do you think the they will do with that? Hence the sanctions on dual purpose technologies, and especially, semiconductor technology. 

Meanwhile, Chinese influence operations continue apace.

BTW, you forgot your BRICS talking points, especially the dollar replacement. That isn't going to happen, btw.