radarthekat

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radarthekat
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  • Panicked selling of AAPL lets Apple buy back billions cheaply

    radarthekatradarthekat
    Here’s a potential source of positive news flow on the Covid-19 situation.  This chart likely will see a spike in recoveries (green) corresponding to the spike in confirmed cases representing China’s shift a couple weeks ago in the way it determined a confirmed case.  The recoveries numbers trail confirmed by about two weeks; about the length of time the virus takes to run its course in a person.   A big spike in recoveries will correspond with a big drop in Active cases, which peaked at 58k about 10 days ago and is now at 44k. 
    pscooter63FileMakerFeller

  • NTSB lays partial blame on Apple for fatal Tesla crash involving employee

    radarthekatradarthekat
    Sumwalt also laid blame on Apple, saying in a statement, "The driver in this crash was employed by Apple — a tech leader. But when it comes to recognizing the need for a company PED policy, Apple is lagging because they don't have such a policy."


    Pay close attention to the position of the quotes here.  The NYSB simply stated that Apple is lagging in an area of policy.  That’s a lot different than placing blame.  At least legally speaking.  There’s no viable attribution of actual liability against Apple in this context or in the statement by the NTSB.  Not so for Tesla. 
    muthuk_vanalingam80s_Apple_Guy

  • Why Apple's supply chain is prepared for China's coronavirus

    radarthekatradarthekat
    Further information:

    Comparisons:

    • Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu. 
    • SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). One day later, on January 30, 2020 the novel coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide which were the final SARS count in 2003.
    • MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%).
    Wgkruegerwatto_cobra

  • Why Apple's supply chain is prepared for China's coronavirus

    radarthekatradarthekat
    Here you go, plenty of information:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#age

    I read a news report that stated that 15% of confirmed cases result in pneumonia.  Well, that’s not surprising considering that “about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.”

    Those numbers match up.   Young healthy adults seem to be survived by the course of the virus, which looks to be onset of symptoms+two weeks.  Looking at the ramp of the confirmed cases and the delayed ramp of the recoveries, I predicted last week that recoveries would hit 2000 by Saturday, Feb 2nd., when that prediction panned out, conforming to me that recoveries are trailing confirmed cases bu two weeks.  And than allowed me to predict for today, Tuesday, Feb 11, recoveries totaling 4000.  And that has now panned out.  So now I’m predicting recoveries at 10,000 by Friday, Feb 14.

    i see news headlines that speak of total confirmed cases and total deaths, but so far none that include recoveries.  The media tends to be sensationalist, and not very nuanced in their analysis of the facts.  But soon the recoveries will ramp to a number that grabs their attention and it’ll start getting reported on.  Recoveries will ramp strongly going forward, with the number of active cases (confirmed minus deaths and recovered) evening out at some point, I think around 60-90k.  That’s when the pressure on the medical system levels out, allowing the medical response to scale to catch up.  Then we should start to see a leveling out in new confirmed cases while the recoveries continue to ramp for a couple weeks as the majority move through the course of the virus.  

    By mid-March all of the above will have played out and the virus should be mostly contained.  
    Dan_DilgerGG1FileMakerFellerwatto_cobra

  • Foxconn telling iPhone assembly staff to stay home because of coronavirus

    radarthekatradarthekat
    Here's a link to a counter that's refreshed multiple times daily.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

    I've watched the numbers and it looks like similar to the flu, the virus runs its course in about two weeks.  So that means the recovery number is just starting to significantly ramp this week (it's gone from about 500 on Sunday to over 1700 today.  As its slope points upward and matches the slope of the confirmed cases graph, we will see a leveling off in the number of active cases, I'm calculating around 60,000-90,000, with just as may people recovering daily as are contracting the virus.  That should occur in about two weeks.  After that, efforts to control the outbreak should begin to yield positive results, reducing the growth rate of new infections, now about about 16%/day and eventually seeing it die down as the weather turns warm,  

    chaickaSoli