charlesn

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charlesn
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  • Trump blinks: Floats suggestion that Apple might get a tariff exemption

    SiTime said:
    Many iPhones are assembled in China, but iPhones are assembled in countries other than China as well. Apple can continue to ship iPhones from India (and elsewhere ex-China) to warehouses in America at the 10% tariffs rate during the 90-day pause. America can get the India (and elsewhere ex-China) assembled iPhones, while the China assembled iPhones can go to the rest of the world.
    It's not "many" iPhones assembled in China--it is the vast, vast majority. China has 80% of Apple's iPhone production capacity and 90% of all iPhones are assembled there. India, compared to China, remains a much more minor player at present and there simply is no significant amount of excess production capacity sitting idle there that Apple can simply turn on. Adding that capacity is a years-long process, but even if Apple could wave a wand and do it very quickly, why would they? Within 90 days or less, Trump could heavily tariff India again if it doesn't agree to what will likely be untenable trade terms that he'll offer and then Apple will be faced with the same problem. This is the business-killing issue with Trump--there's no rhyme or reason or discernible strategy to what he's doing, no predictability whatsoever, and businesses can't make long-term decisions and investments when they're flying blind. 
    muthuk_vanalingamilarynxsphericAlex_Vwatto_cobra
  • Trump blinks: Floats suggestion that Apple might get a tariff exemption

    9secondkox2 said: The status quo is not sustainable without ceding our economy and leading status in the world. 
    Really? Headline story from The Economist, Oct 2024: "The American Economy: The Envy of the World." Subhead: 
    "The American economy has left other rich nations in the dust." THAT was our economy's story six months ago. Record high stock market, strong GDP growth, near record low unemployment, no recession is sight and inflation steadily easing per the benchmarks set by the Fed. If by "status quo," you mean Trump's insanity that not only tanked the stock market, but rocked the market for US Treasuries as of yesterday--yes, I totally agree, THAT is not sustainable! Do you have ANY idea what happens if T-bills are no longer seen as such a safe haven and we have to start paying higher interest rates on them to attract buyers (as was happening yesterday) to finance our national debt and deficit spending? It's game over, my friend. Point, set, match--the US is screwed. But Trump and his staff are so incompetent, they hadn't thought that through and didn't see it coming until it happened. 

    And here's the thing: I would have no argument had Trump made a reasoned case to get better trade agreements with a tightly targeted set of countries. And then set about negotiations to make that happen, retaliating with tariffs if necessary. China would certainly lead that list. But what did he do? First, he prematurely tore up and refused to abide by the USMCA agreement that HE, himself, negotiated as a supposedly "much better deal" than NAFTA--in reality, it barely changed NAFTA, but whatever--and then he proceeded to knife both of our closest and most important trading partners in the back, no negotiations. But that was just the appetizer. Trump's main course was declaring a trade war on the entire world at once, including uninhabited islands, putting America in the untenable negotiating position of suddenly being alone as the global supervillain. If your goal is to drive better trade deals, and especially if your goal is to force China to the table, there couldn't be a more dumb and moronic way to go about that than turning the whole world against you at once, And that's exactly what Trump did. 

    Here in NYC, I've had a lifelong front row seat to Trump and none of this surprises me. This is who he has always been. An equal opportunity con man and grifter who has screwed over blue collar workers, investors, students to his bogus university, banks and even donors to his now legally shuttered Donald J. Trump Foundation charity. What kind of self-proclaimed multi-billionaire steals and spends charity donations on himself? It's mind-boggling to me that the aggrieved working class sees him as their savior, when he just sees them as an endless source of grift, shamelessly selling them literally anything from gold lamé high-tops to bibles to meme coins to watches, etc, etc. Like any good con man--and he may well be the best who ever lived--he talks a good game and sounds like he's on your side while he's turning you upside down and shaking the last coins from your pocket. Most if not all of the high profile billionaires in this country have built businesses of real significance of one type or another that have made many people rich and given many, many more people than that good jobs and comfortable lives. Trump has built nothing and done nothing to spread the wealth he has enjoyed, devoting his life only to the enrichment of himself and his family at the expense of everyone else he has screwed along the way. 
    thtdanoxmuthuk_vanalingamilarynxsphericwatto_cobra
  • Trump blinks: Floats suggestion that Apple might get a tariff exemption

    Even with its production diversification efforts in recent years, at least 90% of what Apple makes--and estimates go as high as 95%--still comes out of China. Any thought that Apple can turn on a dime and shift meaningful amounts of additional production to India or Vietnam for the next 90 days to avoid the crushing China tariffs is delusional. Manufacturing just doesn't work that way. And, of course, you have Trump's "Which way is the wind blowing today?" economic "policies," which make informed business decisions nearly impossible because there is no clarity, certainty or strategy about anything. He could pause the China tariffs tomorrow or maybe Apple gets an exemption or maybe Inida and Vietnam end up in the Trump doghouse 90 days from now because they didn't show sufficient fealty. Nobody knows. All we have is the pure, unadulterated id of a six-time serial bankruptcy filer who his own, hand-picked "best people" in his first term cabinet variously described as an idiot, a moron and an imbecile who was "off-the-rails" and had "the understanding of a third or fourth grader." And that's when they weren't calling him a fascist. We have a tantrum-throwing, know-nothing child at the wheel who is driving our economy and America off a cliff. 
    radarthekatssfe11muthuk_vanalingamdanoxwatto_cobra
  • Trade war escalates: Trump hikes China tariffs to 125%, pauses others for 90 days

    nubus said:
    • This morning "tariffs on everyone - penguins especially".
    • Earlier today "Trump to hit medicine with major tariffs"
    • A bit later "125% on China". The Apple Polishing Cloth could be $45.
    • Currently "10% on everything, 125% on China, 25% on steel and aluminum"
    • And tomorrow the numbers are... 
    It takes 30-40 days to ship products from a factory. Now we get 3 months of uncertainty.
    Supply chains remain in distress.

    The Hill should take back control. If Trump can wait 90 days then this is no national emergency.

    I have to say, Nubus, your Apple Polishing Cloth line made me laugh out loud. Well done! 
    XedAlex1Nmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Trade war escalates: Trump hikes China tariffs to 125%, pauses others for 90 days

    The vast, vast majority of what Apple makes is still made in China. Over 90%, with some estimates as high as 95%. And this is after a years-long effort to meaningfully diversify production, which gives you a sense of how hard this is to do and how long it takes. So anyone thinking that Apple can now just shift its China production on a dime over to India and Vietnam for the more favorable tariff rates is delusional. If anything, the news for Apple today got even worse, as the China tariffs went from 104% at midnight to 125% this afternoon. And no one knows what the Orange Lunatic is going to do in 90 days, or even tomorrow. Just remember: he prematurely tore up the NAFTA trade agreement, personally renegotiated it and signed it as the USMCA in his first term, then prematurely tore up THAT agreement... his own agreement... and slammed Canada and Mexico with tariffs. His word and his signature on anything are worth nothing. 
    HobeSoundDarrylXedmuthuk_vanalingammr.scotthugo62tdknoxedge57pulseimagesbonobobAlex1N