slprescott

AR 2016 = MP3 1999:

Products exist, but they're ugly and awkward. Apple is developing a sleeker alternative that will transform the category.

This is an unwinnable situation for Apple:
  1. You can't patent the entire phone; you have to patent the many (unique) components.
  2. So Apple originally sued with a long list of these many (unique) components.
  3. But the judge said, "That's too many components.  I want a short list.  Choose 5." (I think)
  4. Ultimately, the Supreme Court said, "Your damages will only be based on the specific components in your complaint.  You included only a small number of specific components, so your damages will be small."

So Apple's potential winnings are categorically -- and drastically -- reduced by the earlier judge's requirement that they choose a very small subset of the issues to include in a streamlined trial.  Are those Apple's only issues?  No, of course not... but the judge forced Apple to choose s subset that drastically under-represents their claim of infringement.

Many people are doing the battery replacement.  Last night I took my phone into the Apple Store -- at a reserved time, noted for Battery Replacement -- and they mentioned having no batteries in stock.  They estimate it'll take about 1 week to get a new stock of replacement batteries.  (I wish they could have told me that before I took the time to visit their store!)

Last night I visited Apple's first retail store, in Tysons, VA. There were many customers looking at iPhone, iPad, and MacBook Pro... but zero customers looking at Watch.

i love my Watch and use it daily, but Apple still needs to find a way to build broad enthusiasm for this category.

mike1 said:

It's $159 retail. Financial impact is minimal at worst.

I respect your opinion but reach a different conclusion.

Given:
  Number of iPhones sold in this quarter        = 75 M (based on last year)
  % of those buyers getting AirPods              = 10%  (a guess)
  Additional buyers (w/o new phone)              = 2 M   (a guess)
  Price of AirPods                                            = $159

Missed revenue = ((75M * 10%) + 2M) * $159 = $1,510,500

To me, $1.5B of revenue in one quarter is a big financial impact.  And it's not just DEFERRED revenue; in many cases it's LOST revenue because the customer spent their money on an alternative solution.