discountopinion

Personally I am hoping that MacBook and iPad get a muted announcement and i hope that Apple is instead spending their fanfare gunpowder on a splash on Home and Wearables related products.

MacBook updates are pretty foreseeable and iPad updates are useful, but incremental these days. Overall the iPad product mix feels like it could use some cleanup. I feel that people likely rarely upgrade their iPads these days for better features, but likely replace iPads when they stop working or just get too slow. Personally i have no need for iPad or MacBook upgrades this year or likely some years further in the future.

I am holding out for AirPods Max 2. It is clear that social media has bumped adoption of Max v1 as you see lots of kids running around with them nowadays compared to just a year or two ago. Hopefully Apple leans into this with a massive boost and trumpeted launch of new ones. 

Apple TV feels like it would massively benefit from a revamp to move HomeKit/Matter forward and also enable multiple users connected to it for Fitness + and enable multiplayer local and remote exercising. Would love to have AppleTV also support USB connected webcams instead of only relying on iPhone or iPad for camera. If Apple is serious about AppleTV as a gaming platform then getting hardware raytracing (A17 or M3) seems like the next step with a price bump. Maybe a GenAI/LLM hub for the home to power local Siri with large models that HomePods cannot handle? Also why no UWB chip in AppleTV?

HomePod - Love my HomePod 2’s that co-exist in a home with some old HomePods and HomePod Minis. I feel it is time to take it to the next level. Enable people to build large sets of HomePods in a room. Like running 4x HomePod 2’s for home cinema with an AppleTV next gen. As HomePods get more silicon horse power then perhaps it may be an idea to revisit AirPort functionality for the large HomePod.


 

Apple has finally publicly pivoted towards GenAI instead of keeping it hidden and discreet.

I have no doubt that Apple explores all sorts of concepts and files patents. Some of it may be PsyOps against the competition to occlude their real intent.

Apple Ring - feels meh if already having a watch.  A better product would be a scaled down Apple Watch that can tell time, health features, cellular, gps and satellite comms with personal attack alarm. Many schools are banning smart phones and smart watches regardless of the software modes for use in school.. a visibly scaled down version would be great for kids.

A ring would be a pain in the neck to scale to mass volumes since there will be a wide range of finger sizes. Customer variance in size is low cost to manage when having the variance in a rubber loop on the iPhone. I do not see it for a ring unless reaching massive scale.

Apple smart glasses? Not yet. Need massive uplift of Apples AI chops first.

AirPods with cameras? Feels like a massive distraction instead of doubling down on the market segment of assisted hearing. 

As a shareholder I am looking for Apple to achieve competitive *perception parity" on AI features by WWDC, along with one or two ground breaking releases that puts Apple ahead of the pack in areas where existing leaders may not be looking.

Apple has a fairly unique advantage in that they have end to end control of dev tools -> OS -> hardware platforms -> silicon, and thus it is reasonable to expect that to translate into novel and very useful implementations of genAI for existing painpoints in the customer base.

I would love for Siri to progressively evolve to an equivalent of the Young Lady's Illustrated Primer in Neal Stephensons book Diamond Age. Some of the early primitive foundations are there like Siri and journal, while manual today, can easily evolve into a personal audit trail journal logging all sorts of meta data automatically if one opts in.

iCloud is already the operating system of our lives, and it has a chance to evolve into the adviser of our lives.

I have to say that most Equities analysts talk their own book.

I.e. if their most profitable clients are looking to load up on AAPL then they will put out cautionary notes to the public about AAPL to allow their clients to buy into depressed demand and thus secure lower average per share prices. Reverse behaviour if looking to offload shares in bulk then talk up the stock to sell into strong demand to get as much for the shares as possible.

Looking objectively at AAPL and unit sales for a minute. Yes handset sales are somewhat threatened as people stretch their upgrade cycles longer and longer. This is somewhat offset with building momentum in new markets like India and Indonesia with huge populations, rapidly growing affluence and low current base for Apple.

Overall selling devices may be less of the story for AAPL in the next few years depending on how some pivotal rulings may or may not change the landscape. This is where one should keep one's eye as services have about 2x gross margin compared to devices and if continuing uninterrupted will soon be 50% of overall gross margin contribution.

Cutting AAPL targets due to handset concerns is quite dumb. Being somewhat concerned with seismic shifts in the services revenue is a better thing to be focused on and caution is needed here.

AAPL needs to better articulate their story of how they will prosper in a world with multiple app stores, competition of in-app payments, search engine placement competition or bans. I.e. what is the growth model with minimal control of the eco-system vs. strong control as it is now.

Personally I think Apple has a bright future ahead of itself as most customers will remain loyal to the brand and the service ecosystem. It is an aspirational product and ecosystem in most countries and as a comparison LMVH, Hermes and others are doing exceedingly well despite there being a mee-too universe of copycats. On the other hand Hermes does not stop the wearer from having Zara trousers together with a silk scarf. Apple currently limits the customer from mixing and matching devices and services with others for the most part.