nemoeac

Anyhow - if this truly is stock manipulation that's responsible for the recent decrease in the stock price, those responsible have now had ample time to reverse their positions and prepare for a surge in the other direction.  They've ran the price down and taken a lot of profit while doing so.  Now they may be about to release the brakes and let it rally to 150 or 160 then cash out and prepare to drag it back down.  They don't benefit from a stable stock price.  They benefit by controlling the direction.  I for one want my money to be in play when they decide it's time to lift the anchor and so I'm buying as much more as I can between now and the earnings announcement.  (I think that's when we'll see the direction change - possibly even 4-5 days prior to the earnings announcement)!

Awesome! 

Exactly as I predicted 16 days ago, today marks the turnaround in Apple's stock price! 

On Jan 6th, I predicted that the stock would begin to rise 4 days before earnings are announced and that it wouldn't stop until it surpassed $150!

Today is 4 days before earnings are announced and we're up 5%!  How many of the analysts called *that*?  :

http://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/comment/2819571/#Comment_2819571

Let's hope that the rest of my predictions are also true and that this isn't just a coincidental "blip".  $160 by July!

Boy when something like this happens, it sure draws out the ignorant, the stupid and the paranoid en masse.  Those whom are afraid of what they don't understand and ready to jump on an isolated incident like this for a chance to spread their own variety of FUD and misinformation.

Nest screwed up.  No question about it.  They released an update without enough testing.  Perhaps their design is fundamentally flawed also - because there is no manual override.  I don't dispute any of those facts/opinions.  However - it's completely ridiculous and just fear-mongering to suggest that it is impossible to design automated systems with adequate safeguards and failsafe protocols.  Of course it can be done.  That kind of design would certainly cost more - in research and design, in implementation and in performing adequate testing - but somebody will do it.  Just because Nest failed to do so doesn't mean it's impossible!  And to draw the conclusion that a self-driving car will be allowed on the road with systems that on board that could cause any kind of catastrophe when they fail is ignorant.  It's childish and immature to suggest that it's likely.

If you want to protect yourself - be a more informed consumer!  Ask what happens when a device fails - and if you don't like the answers - don't buy it.  I doubt there will ever be a product designed that is immune to failure - but well designed products will fail in a manner that may be inconvenient - but will definitely be safe.

all of the arguments people are throwing out their now are arguments that could also be applied to the mature technology and automation that they use every day - such as automobiles, microwave ovens, doorbells, toasters, etc...  Why would ANYONE install a doorbell when it's just as easy to knock???  There is electricity running to the doorbell switch!  It's just not worth the chance of being electrocuted.  I'll stick to knocking thank you bery much!!!! /s

Nest may never recover fully from this.  They've demonstrated some irresponsibility here which also exposed some flaws in their design.  Other automation companies will learn lessons from this.  Some of them will build better products, with adequate failsafes because of this.  Others will continue to cut corners and take shortcuts.  Hopefully, there will be sites on the internet (like there are now) that compare and evaluate the different offerings and post their findings - but it's up to us as consumers to make sure we make educated decisions when we make purchases and realize that saving $20 is sometimes not the best route to take!

Botton line:  Home automation is evolving.  Your existing builders thermostat was feared and not trusted when it first came out.  Now it's the go to safe device for those that don't trust the newer more automated systems.  Originally, there were many who didn't trust them and opted to turn on and off the heat manually.  Companies will learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others and build better, more reliable models every year. They will get better and more reliable when they operate properly - and when they fail - they will do so in the best possible way.  Look at a company's track record before you purchase a device.  Ask about what happens when it fails?  Then make an informed purchase.

Technology and automation is here to stay.  Don't be scared away from it by the lies and misinformation spread by the ignorant and the scared.  

matrix077 said:

redraider11 said:

Not really sure what Jesus has to do with it, but if you don't like it don't use it.

Yeah.. neither was I. Somehow I don't think Jesus is a fan of "dark" theme.

Never mind Jesus.  What would Steve like?  /s

Blaster said:

rwes said:

Or for some of us who have a good amount of older material. Material which isn't in an Apple supported format, that we can't just easily drag into iTunes and then play from the Computer app on the Apple TV.

On my Mac, I regularly fire up VLC for that older content - this is awesome! And I personally prefer VLC over the other options for quite a few things.

That's not my problem.  Anybody who hasn't already converted all of their video files to Apple approved formats deserves to lose access to those files.  Apple should pull VLC and any other app which allows people to play anything other than what Apple approves. 

Is the smiley face at the end of your message supposed to tell us you're just joking?  Or are you really as much of a jerk as the post makes it sound like you are? 

We're all amazed at how these analysts manage to keep their jobs when their predictions are almost always miles away from reality - however - if you were to look at what's happening this month - customers and people who take advice from Morgan Stanley would have done very well by selling their shares or even shorting the stock when they first broke the news/rumor of the reduction in parts orders.  Even if that data point means nothing to Apples business because of all the reasons we've been suggesting over the past few weeks - it did in fact mean something to Wall Street.  The stock price dropped ok the report, and then it dropped further as other analysts and investment firms repeated the rumors.  Morgan Stanley customers aren't going to care that the report was wrong - because the advice wasn't - at least in the short term.  If they took the sell advice - and shorted the stock - they've done quite well this month.

Its sad that this kind of stock price manipulation is possible.  Has anyone considered what might happen if Tim Cook took the company private?  /s

Anyhow - I'm not an analyst - but I can't really be any more wrong than the actual analysts, so I'm going to go on record with my expectations:  I don't see the stock going much lower.  I think that the players responsible for the manipulation of taken their profit in the drop and have set themselves up to profit on a run.  I see the stock price starting to rise no later than 4 days before earnings are announced and that they will continue to rise to new highs.  I think share prices will hit $150 by June 1st - and remain relatively stable there until the iPhone 7 is released at which time I think the manipulators will once again step up their campaign of FUD and start dragging the price back down.

Just my guess.  I'm currently long in Apple holding 700 actual shares of Apple and leveraging 3300 more shares via call options expiring in April and July (exercise prices at 100 and 110).

i wish I had access to another $100k right now.  I'd put it all into actual shares of AAPL.  At a P/E ratio of 7 (or whatever it currently is), it's extremely undervalued.  Even at a ratio of 11, it would be less than its peers - but at 7, it's a steal!

i expect Apple to meet the guidance they published for this quarter.  Issue guidance for March that is conservative, but still shows YoY growth.  Reiterate that people should not rely on supply chain data.  Announce the number of shares that have been repurchased and the expansion of the buyback program.

The current stock price seems to be based on worst case scenarios.  There are so many positive catalysts rumoured to be waiting in the wings - and if any of them actually prove to be true, the stock should respond very favourably - such as a 4" phone in April, an early release of the iPhone 7, an increase in the dividend, etc, etc

i don't know about sog35 and the rest of you but I'm expecting great things to happen over the next 6 months!