rogifan_old

satchmo said:

rogifan_old said:

Its herd mentality. No point in speculating. We'll know when Apple reports in a few weeks. But your comment about iPhone 7 just shows how pathetic this is. We've heard next to nothing about iPhone 7, certainly not anything that would point to it being some major change from the 6. So what exactly would the resurgence in the stock be for? If we're to believe these rumors and Apple is cutting orders for the 6S why should we believe people are going to rush out and buy the 7 or that we won't be talking about the same damn thing a year from now with analysts predicting 7 cuts but telling everyone things will get better with the 8.

I don't think a new iPhone 7 will make a lick of difference. I believe there's a fundamental sea change in the smart phone market. The days of premium $700 phones are numbered and not a 'smart' buy. People are happy to get by with decent $300 phones that do 90% of what an iPhone does. Only your hard core Apple enthusiast will ooh and ahh and make the latest design, a must have upgrade.

The sky is not falling, but when the iPhone makes up 70% of Apple's revenues, you have to wonder how hard and fast Apple stock can crash.

johnjohnstone said:

rogifan_old said:

Its herd mentality. No point in speculating. We'll know when Apple reports in a few weeks. But your comment about iPhone 7 just shows how pathetic this is. We've heard next to nothing about iPhone 7, certainly not anything that would point to it being some major change from the 6. So what exactly would the resurgence in the stock be for? If we're to believe these rumors and Apple is cutting orders for the 6S why should we believe people are going to rush out and buy the 7 or that we won't be talking about the same damn thing a year from now with analysts predicting 7 cuts but telling everyone things will get better with the 8.

Apple always gets a nice bump up when they change the shell of the phone. iPhone4, 5, and 6 all had nice unit growth.  The S-models have been hit and miss. 4s was huge, 5s barely had growth, and the 6s will probably have a slight decline. That means even if only iPhone6 users upgrade to the 7 we will see a YoY unit growth over the 6s. But of course there will be switchers from Android and some 5/4 series holdouts who skipped the 6. So I expect a nice 8-10% unit growth for the iPhone7. That should should help the stock reach about $125. In the 7s shows growth then we see $140 in a couple of years.

With that in mind I'd wait for $80 share price. If taxes isn't a factor I'd even sell shares now at close to $100 and wait for that $80 price in the Spring. Then you can easily get a 50% return by mid 2017.

johnjohnstone said:

digitalclips said:

Read this again folks ...  same still holds true

http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/12/15/channel-check-analysts-warning-of-peak-iphone-are-priming-apple-shares-for-monster-buybacks-

I don't think so. There is just way too much smoke not to have a fire at this point. The March quarter will show an iPhone unit decline. But I would not panic. This is what I see the next few months: stock could go as low as $80 by Spring because of decline of iPhone units in March. But I see the stock resurging on news of the iPhone7 release and big gains in AppleWatch2 units. I expect to close the year at about $125. 

SpamSandwich said:

digitalclips said:

This is a pretty good comment on the state of AAPL IMHO

http://fortune.com/2016/01/06/apple-wall-street/

Look at the whole market right now. Stocks are getting killed right now. For example, Chipotle Mexican Grill (which has grown spectacularly over the past several years) is down 40% over just one month (although it should be noted they had some serious food problems recently).

SpamSandwich said:

rogifan_old said:

So basically he's paid a lot of money and Apple doesn't want to disclose it. Still doesn't explain how they get away with it, especially if he's paid more than others, though of course we don't know if that's the case.

If he's considered a "permanent consultant" (with limitless godlike powers) instead of an officer, that might do it.