johnjohnstone

delreyjones said:

You've repeated this $80 quite a few times (I lost count), but you don't say how you arrive at it.  Why not $85?  Why not $75?  Are you predicted a YOY decline in the March quarter, or are you predicting flat earnings and a declining P/E?  You're implying flat profits and a declining P/E, but you don't seem to be confident enough to be explicit.  Just to be clear, I don't know that you're wrong, but I haven't seen any analysis behind your $80 figure.  It looks like you're basing this number on intuition.

I am indeed predicting a YoY decline in revenue for the March quarter and maybe even the June quarter. That would be enough for the market to give Apple a PE of 9. With small declines in revenue I could see profits to be estimated at $50 billion. $50 billion x 9 = $450 billion market cap. That gives you a share price of about $84. But panic and macro news probably drops this to $80.

rogifan_old said:

The 4s gave us Siri and came at a time that iPhone was really becoming popular (it had just come to Verizon in Feburary of 2011). The 5 and 6 were screen size changes. Whaf is the 7 going to bring that people didn't get with the 6S? I'm skeptical that a new look or something like wireless charging or losing the headphone jack will cause a massive upgrade. If we're going down the path of D&G then I think we have to go all the way. None of this iPhone 7 will be the savior nonsense.

Smaller footprint would be my guess. The 6/6+ are perfect phones except they are too big to fit in many people's pockets and hands.

And it won't take much for the 7 to beat iPhone6s unit sales. They just need to get their historical 90% retention ratings and another 20% of buyers switching from Android.

But yes peak iPhone is coming within the next 5 years or so. Apple really needs to focus on expanding their services to grow revenue from here on out. LiveTV, Cloud, home security, connected home, gaming, movie streaming, search, advertising, banking, and social should all be on Apple's radar. They need to expand to more services. It is much easier to add 10% to services revenue instead of adding 10% unit sales. 

So gross revenue from the App store is $22 billion a year. That is growth about 25% compared to last year.

fallenjt said:

If you don't have anything better to say beside the stupid comment of $80 price multiple times in the same thread, I suggest you to go to somewhere else to continue spewing the bullshit or you end up to the blocked list of many regular posters here.

Why so much anger? I'm just giving my opinion based on facts. The last time Apple showed flat/negative revenue growth was 2013. And the stock went down 45% from its peak. Its not a stretch for the stock to go down 40% again if revenue growth goes negative. 

Fact is no matter how much profits a company makes if they are not growing revenue they won't be rewarded a PE of over 8-10. Right now Apple's PE is at 11. It can easily get to a PE of 9 if they show negative revenue growth. That gets the price to about $84 and fear can push it to $80.

IMO, this is just a great opportunity to gather capital to buy shares at $80 in a few months. When Apple hit $385 a few years back I thought I would never get such a great opportunity again. Looks like I'm going to get lucky again. I'm getting my $$$ ready for $80 share price. Chomping at the bit.

SpamSandwich said:

rogifan_old said:

Its herd mentality. No point in speculating. We'll know when Apple reports in a few weeks. But your comment about iPhone 7 just shows how pathetic this is. We've heard next to nothing about iPhone 7, certainly not anything that would point to it being some major change from the 6. So what exactly would the resurgence in the stock be for? If we're to believe these rumors and Apple is cutting orders for the 6S why should we believe people are going to rush out and buy the 7 or that we won't be talking about the same damn thing a year from now with analysts predicting 7 cuts but telling everyone things will get better with the 8.

IMO, this is yet another period to consider adding to one's portfolio. Just placed a limit buy order. I'm assuming a bit more of a fall.

At what price?

I fully expect to see this at $80 this Spring/Summer when Apple reports iPhone unit declines for the first time ever. I'd wait for that level.