johnjohnstone

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  • Samsung reports weak profits for Q4 while shipping 12.5% more smartphones, casting doubt on Apple,

    johnjohnstonejohnjohnstone
    I'm not flabbergasted that Samsung reported weak profits. 

    Smartphones are are becoming a commodity, I'm afraid, and that means that something has to give: either Apple's margins or Apple's sales. My feeling is that people like me will keep buying iPhones, but less frequently. Others will switch to Android. If Apple were to accommodate the whole market as they did for the iPod, then they would be able to enjoy a 60%+ market share. Alas, I fear that Tim Cook doesn't have the nous to follow in Steve Jobs' footsteps and make the bold decision to sell the iPhone at all price points. 

    I do like the idea of bringing out 4" iPhone models for the Western first world in the Spring, and saving the phablets for the third world in the autumn. This will help to even out iPhone sales and ease shortages. 
    Except Average selling price and unit sales of iPhones have been up 6 straight YoY quarters.

    People are buying more iPhones at higher prices than ever before. Seems like your 'theory' is totally false.

    Smartphones are the most important item in a persons life after their home and car. Do you seriously think people will give up a high quality iPhone to save $5 a month to get an Android? Get real. A smartphone is a mission critical devices for work and home and social. With the new iPhone lease plans people can pay $25 a month for an iPhone with zero down. I would believe your theory if people were forced to pay for the entire phone at $700-$900. But with leasing much of the high price tag is offset by Apple's high resale value and low lease payments.

    People use their phone every day for hours a day. No way people will be willing to use a 2nd class phone to save $5 a month. People don't think twice to spend $5 on a cup of coffee every day. No way on earth will they compromise on something they use everyday to save a few pennies a day.

    I do agree that Apple needs to lower prices in countries that don't have lease plans like in the USA. A prime example is in India where Apple dropped the price of the 5s 30%-40%.  But if you are expecting Apple to start selling $150 phones like Samsung don't hold your breath. Like Cook said they will never sell junk. 
    netmageronncornchip

  • Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple supplier channel check rumors

    johnjohnstonejohnjohnstone
    rogifan_old said:


    I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal. 
    Tim Cook and Apple really needs to change their strategy with dealing with Wall Street. Growing iPhone units alone is not good enough anymore. Being super top secret is not good enough anymore. You got to give investors something to look forward to. If Cook confirmed they were working on a car I bet the stock would have not been hit so hard.

    At this point I'm not 100% sure Tim Cook is the right CEO right now. He was the right CEO to maximize iPhone unit sales with his vast knowledge of the supply chain. But in this point in Apple's history I think its less about pushing out more units but rather growing services. They may need a new CEO who understands how to grow new services and who is an expert in M&A to put that $200 billion in cash to work. 

    Apple's biggest problem right now is its over reliance on iPhone. Until that is solved they will forever be haunted by these supply check stories. They need to grow more services or acquire companies.

    Stock is at $95 right now. Stock has lost about $50,000,000,000 in value just this week.
    asdasdradarthekat

  • Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple supplier channel check rumors

    johnjohnstonejohnjohnstone
    rogifan_old said:
    good point. Forgot about that. If that's the case I wish Tim Cook would announce total iPhone install base each quarter. That way even if the iPhone sales for a specific quarter may be down the install base is steadily climbing.
    Wall Street won't care about that until Apple shows new revenue streams that are effectively monetizing this large install base. All rumors suggest a streaming TV service is off the table. Apple has been pretty quite re: Apple Music, we don't really have a feel for what percent of the install base is subscribing. And Apple Pay doesn't seem to be designed as a money maker in and of itself. So outside of App Store sales what good is this large install base right now?

    I've said this before and I'll say it again, one way I think Apple could calm investor fears is if Cook hired an SVP to run Apple's cloud business and oversee maps and Siri. Task this person with really stepping up Apple's game in machine learning and search. Then make Eddy Cue 100% focused on Apple's content business and expanding Apple Pay. Let the design and engineering teams focus on hardware and software and new products and have Eddy be 100% dedicated to monetizing the install base and creating recurring revenue streams. I think the stock would be in a different place right now if Apple Music was thriving and the probability of a streaming TV service was high. So in theory you'd have under Cook:

    Jony, Craig, Dan and Johny focused on existing products + new hardware and software;
    Phil overseeing product marketing and improving the App Store;
    Eddy focused on iTunes, Music, TV, Pay and monetizing the install base
    Angela expanding Apple's retail footprint, especially in China;
    and then support staff like operations, finance and legal

    just my 2¢
    I like these ideas.

    IMO, Apple has not been aggressive enough in services. They really need to bring in some new hires to head up new services or acquire some companies.
    igroucho

  • Another rumor claims 'iPhone 7' will drop headphone jack, gain waterproofing & wireless charging

    johnjohnstonejohnjohnstone
    The feature I really want to see is smaller top and bottom bezel's. 

    Could care less about water resistance and wireless charging.
    larryaasdasdallmypeoplebraderunnerbobschlobsubbies

  • Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple supplier channel check rumors

    johnjohnstonejohnjohnstone

    suddenly newton said:
    The absence of evidence is evidence of iPhone's imminent DOOM. It's time for Apple fans to admit the iPhone is over. No iPhone 6c or iPhone 7 model will save it.
    Lack of evidence? The evidence is piling up. There are a ton of supply chain reports and weak earnings by iPhone suppliers. Did we even have one single iPhone supplier who showed the strong earnings yet? 

    There is just way too much smoke for their not to be a fire. But this fire is temporary. Get your wallets ready for $80 per share and buy up big time. Once the dust settles and iPhone 7 comes out we will see 10% sales growth again and $125 stock price. IMO, that is the easiest way to make 50% return in less than a year.
    jackansi