AppleZulu

Trump's Folly continues. It would be funny to watch the stupidity play out if this wasn't affecting real people's lives. We can only hope that the fever the President is inducing will ultimately help us flush out the Trumpian virus before it kills the rest of us. 

Despite the naive confidence expressed by certain apologists here (and elsewhere), Apple is not going to be "fine," nor will the rest of us. Let us hope the unavoidable reality of these self-inflicted wounds will jolt enough people into demanding accountability, and cause members of Congress to be more fearful of the repercussions of continued inaction than they currently are of doing anything at all now to reassert their constitutional authority to stop this lunacy.

9secondkox2 said:

AppleZulu said:

9secondkox2 said:

Cook can’t help but be happy about that. 

Tariffs could have hit them hard. But they have been treated well. Hopefully it continues.

looking forward to iPhone 17 and am m5 max MacBook Pro 16” if a large iMac doesn’t materialize by end of winter. Been looking forward to apple prices heading toward back to reality in pricing now that the covid uncertainty and shutdowns has been over for a while. Then the tariffs came, but also seems to be done in a way that could enable healthier pricing (for the consumer - it’s already been healthy for apple). Wanted to hold out for m6 in 2nm, but I don’t know if I can wait much longer. 

The on-again-off-again-even-more-on-again tariff regime is already creating economic instability that won’t be stoppable even if a total “off-again” pronouncement comes tomorrow. Businesses that didn’t get an exemption have already cancelled orders. Consumers will soon find that many things they need won’t be available at any price. For Apple, having the exemptions is better than not having the exemptions, but they don’t exist in a vacuum. The chaos created by this administration will harm Apple anyway. Your fantasy world where this is all ok doesn’t actually exist. 

You do the right thing because it’s right. Not because it’s simple or easy to do. More often than not, it’s rather difficult and those around you prefer the easy way, even if it only defers disaster. Things were getting out of hand. Some had been that way for a while. And it doesn’t stop at trade imbalances. We start seeing abuse like the eu with apple.. next thing we knew, all kinds of governments were looking to take their own bite out of apple. These recent actions put the world on notice: not only will trade imbalances need to be more equitable, but leveraging financial consequences to stem abuse in other ways is quite a powerful tool when needed. All of a sudden the eu is very careful about slapping more fines on Apple. With tariffs, foreign goods get more expensive, leading to a glut of unsold items when consumers buy elsewhere. That hurts the seller much more than the buyer. It’s supply and demand. When demand dries up, the supplier is left having wasted money on unsold inventory. The supply will be provided elsewhere, buying habits change, etc. and yet Apple does seem to be in the enviable position of avoiding most, if not all, of that. Everyone has an opinion, but time will tell of course. 

You're making a lot of presumptions here. 

"You do the right thing because it’s right. Not because it’s simple or easy to do."

This would be a more meaningful if this administration's tariff policy was actually defensible. What they are doing is not "right," and in fact, the ridiculous formula they used to create what they falsely claimed to be "reciprocal" tariffs only shows that they did what was easy - for themselves - to generate their chart of tariffs. Also easy for them was the default 10% applied to every country (except Russia) without regard to whether there were any "trade deficits" or documented "abuses" at all. So from the start, your premise is false.

"Things were getting out of hand."

Here you're referencing the emergency that wasn't an emergency. You inadvertently give that up with your next sentence.

"Some had been that way for a while."

Things that are getting out of hand and have been that way for a while may require a response, but the gradual nature implicit in the description strongly suggests that any response should be well thought out and measured, not impulsive and reactive. There may be a problem, but it's clearly not a sudden emergency. It is actually possible to use bold tactics to implement a careful strategy. Alienating the entire world, including our closest allies before attempting to take on our largest trade "opponent" is not that. It's pure foolishness. 

"These recent actions put the world on notice".

They did indeed. The world has been notified that the United States is no longer a reliable trading partner or ally. They have also been notified that the administration's actions are not based on actual facts and conditions, and that responses giving the US administration exactly what they say they want will likely be rebuffed anyway, so why capitulate early?

"With tariffs, foreign goods get more expensive, leading to a glut of unsold items when consumers buy elsewhere. That hurts the seller much more than the buyer."

You are making the false assumption that foreign manufacturers produce items on spec with no buyer identified. It's pretty doubtful that this happens in manufacturing*. Also, in many cases, there is no "elsewhere" available for consumers. In the next couple of months, there will be many headlines about products that US consumers want and need that cannot be found at any price.

For goods already ordered by US importers, there is almost certainly a contract in place. The company that placed an order before tariffs were imposed is almost certainly obligated to pay for those items. If they refuse and renege on their contract, even if the tariffs are all dropped a week later, that importer will no longer have any credit with the foreign manufacturer they refused to pay. So they'll probably pay the manufacturer for orders already placed. The question then becomes, can the importer pay the tax required before receiving the items, or will they have to eat the loss and leave the product on the ship? If the tariff is 145%, and the importer knows they can't sell the items for 2 1/2 times the normal price, they lose considerably less money by paying the manufacturer and abandoning the purchase before paying the tariff. 

*On the other hand, in agriculture, season-long lead times and the variabilities of weather mean farmers have to plant speculatively. China isn't paying up front for soybeans that haven't been planted and harvested yet. The US farmer that has been selling soybeans to China in the past is shouldering that risk. Many have already bought seed and many of those may have planted already. So as China retaliates in the tariff war, the US farmer must decide if they risk spending more money to water, fertilize, grow and harvest their soybeans in hopes that things will be resolved by then, or do they cut their losses now and plow the crop under?

You're right that "supply and demand" are at play here, but you're grievously misguided in your belief that these actions are more painful "over there" than they are here. Nobody wins a tariff war.

9secondkox2 said:

Cook can’t help but be happy about that. 

Tariffs could have hit them hard. But they have been treated well. Hopefully it continues.

looking forward to iPhone 17 and am m5 max MacBook Pro 16” if a large iMac doesn’t materialize by end of winter. Been looking forward to apple prices heading toward back to reality in pricing now that the covid uncertainty and shutdowns has been over for a while. Then the tariffs came, but also seems to be done in a way that could enable healthier pricing (for the consumer - it’s already been healthy for apple). Wanted to hold out for m6 in 2nm, but I don’t know if I can wait much longer. 

The on-again-off-again-even-more-on-again tariff regime is already creating economic instability that won’t be stoppable even if a total “off-again” pronouncement comes tomorrow. Businesses that didn’t get an exemption have already cancelled orders. Consumers will soon find that many things they need won’t be available at any price. For Apple, having the exemptions is better than not having the exemptions, but they don’t exist in a vacuum. The chaos created by this administration will harm Apple anyway. Your fantasy world where this is all ok doesn’t actually exist. 

It’s important to remember even as Cook manages some carve-outs for Apple that the underlying tariffs will be devastating for all the other businesses that don’t get the exemptions. I listened yesterday to an interview with a man who runs a business making the things new mothers need for their babies. Sippy cups, strollers and the rest. The 145% tariffs mean that he and his competitors have all cancelled their orders for new supply. They’ve already absorbed the previous tariffs, and the new rate would make their wares unsalable. They have sixty days’ supply already here, and it takes at least 45 days from placing an order to receiving it at the port. He can’t get the manufacturing tools and machinery he’s invested in out of China to move a factory here. He can’t afford to start from scratch, and even if he did, building a factory takes years. 

9secondkox2 said:

avon b7 said:

9secondkox2 said:

As I said a long time ago, intelligent people are in charge snd apple will be ok. The president will have a way to navigate Apple through some difficult decidd add jobs. And it has come to pass. 

Cook was wise to open the door of discussion dnd thr president has been wise in response. 

I know it’s popular in this particular online space to detract from the president no matter what he does, but the fact is tarriffs are necessary -yet it’s sldd add o necessary to protect Americans and American companies. The idea is to put the pressure on other countries, particularly China - and not on American companies. 

It’s not changing mindset. It’s continuing forward motion, msnuevering as needed. That’s only good stuff snd Apple is the better for it. As this year marks time for my iPhone upgrade and early next is my next Mac purchase, I am a pretty happy potential customer right about now. 

If intelligent people were involved, surely none of this would have been necessary. 

He imposed tariffs. There were little to no exceptions. He let that situation sit while markets collapsed everywhere. He doubled down on there being no change of thought and barely hours after saying there would be no backing down, he did just that, suspending 'reciprocal' tariffs for 90 days. 

Then, late Friday exemptions were put in place.

By late Sunday we were being told there were no real exemptions (according to Lutnick) but a sort of pause within a pause and everyone was 'on the hook' (according to Trump) and that new tariffs were being devised to replace the original ones but they simply weren't ready and we know no one will even dare explain them (because they are being cooked up as we speak and don't exist). 

Even within the administration mixed messaging is emerging and now we are to believe Trump is 'flexible'?

It is nice to hear about walls and going over or below them, or even around them but the US decided to crash straight into them. 

There is no intelligence on show here. It's the complete opposite. Chaos and reaction to the problems chaos brings. 

Intelligence would never have seen this mess get to this point. 

Intelligence would not have seen Trump congratulating his pals for stock market gains hours before he announced another walk back (opening him up to valid insider trading accusations). 


Tim Cook and every CEO and small business owner in the US would know what trade policy is and be acting on it. That isn't happening because there is NO stable trade policy.

Everyone is running blind. 

Incorrect. It’s because of intelligent and good people that we are finally addressing long-standing abuses and doing so in a way that is benefitting Americans as much as possible and sparing collateral damage where possible. It’s not changing your mind when you planned to do something already. Trump hinted at this previously and we saw precedent in his first term. And that El Salvador president sure seemed to respect him tremendously. 

The right thing to do isn’t to continue to be ripped off. Nor is it to apply tarriffs without concern for American companies. 

People elected the president in a number of issues. This is one. The previous admin let American get bullied around. We saw a microcosm of that with Apple and the EU. That era is over. All of a sudden we hear the eu saying they’re willing to deal. We hear them second guessing their ridiculously exorbitant fees charged against Apple for stuff they make up as they go along. America is strong again. And as a result, so are Americans and our companies. This is good. A lot of mental acrobatics to try to spin it any other way. 

Your sycophancy is an embarrassment. The collateral damage is huge. Americans will be paying higher prices for cars, food, lumber, and the majority of every day items they buy online and at big box stores. None of this will yield in influx of new, high-paying jobs to offset the costs, certainly not anytime soon, and with continued flip-flops and insouciance from this administration, the jobs won't come later, either. Nobody makes major investments in an unstable market. The article above demonstrates how the exemptions for Apple that may or may not be exemptions and may or may not last, were an afterthought, not part of any plan. The collateral damage with our own allies means we are in a much weaker position to negotiate anything with China. A year ago, our European allies were strongly aligned with us and rapidly distancing themselves from China because of its overt support for Russia. Now, those European countries are re-examining their relationship with China, because at least it represents a more stable trading partner than the United States. So you go ahead and enjoy your maybe-tariff-exempted new iPhone upgrade, because it's coming at an enormous cost to all Americans. 

The El Salvadoran president likes Trump because Trump is paying him to like him, and offering to pay him a lot more to build gulags for US citizens as well. Like all of Trump's relationships this is entirely transactional.

You're the one engaging in mental acrobatics as you try to spin any of this as good for anyone but Donald Trump.