twolf2919

JP234 said:

twolf2919 said:

I agree with most of what Morgan Stanley is saying - but they obviously don't know their AR from their VR.  There is 0% probability Apple will be coming out with an AR product this year.  Most likely, it'll announce a VR headset this year, but given the niche market that is VR and the rumored price point of > $1.5k, the release of such a VR headset will not result in any meaningful revenue for AAPL in 2023.

You think that tech industry analysts at Morgan Stanley, with resources you can't even imagine, don't know these things and you do?
That's hubris.

No hubris - just a lot of experience, including a stint at Morgan Stanley in the '90s..  Analysts guessing what a company like Apple will bring to market has very little to do with the financial resources at their disposal - I doubt a Morgan Stanley analyst has any more access to Apple product secrets than anybody else.  If they did, Apple as a publicly traded company could actually get into trouble.  They read news, rumors, and attend Apple quarterly earnings calls - just like you and me could (and I do).  All the rumors so far, including from fairly accurate rumor sources such as Mark Gurman and Kuo Ming Chi, have suggested that a MR/VR headset in the $2k range is forthcoming, possibly as early as Apple's developers conference in June.

I agree with most of what Morgan Stanley is saying - but they obviously don't know their AR from their VR.  There is 0% probability Apple will be coming out with an AR product this year.  Most likely, it'll announce a VR headset this year, but given the niche market that is VR and the rumored price point of > $1.5k, the release of such a VR headset will not result in any meaningful revenue for AAPL in 2023.

foregoneconclusion said:

In my experience, longer hours or extra days = slower work. If you know you have more time, you take more time. You're not going to work at the same pace knowing it's a 12 hour day versus an 8 hour day or a 6 day week instead of a 5 day week. 

You're confirming TSMC's statements :-)

Edgecrusherr said:

...

The bigger issue for me is that every couple of weeks to months, they stop working, and I have to unplug them for a few seconds and plug it back in to power cycle them. It’s not a huge deal, but the whole point of having a smart plug is to have reliable access to turn them on and off when you’re not in the same room or house, and setting things such as timers.

I've had the same issue with the outdoor Meross plugs: they stop working after awhile and need to be unplugged/plugged back in.  I am hoping that this has been addressed in the newer versions of the plug as I just ordered the Matter-capable version of the Mini plug.

Word of warning: don't buy these plugs from the Meross store - what a terrible experience I've had with them: I ordered the Matter Mini plugs (a pair) November 16th.  When the product still hadn't arrived more than a month later, I contacted their customer support and was told that I ordered a "pre-sell" and that I'd get it by end of month (December) or in January.  I had no idea that this was a "pre-sell" when I ordered.  But I waited.  February came and still no plugs.  Contacted them again and was told that due to Covide, there was a delay and they're expected to ship in 3 days.   Who knows when/if they ever arrive.  Anyway, the moral of the story is: don't buy these from Meross directly - get them from Amazon or other place where you have some leverage as a customer.

Who the heck is "Rosenblatt"?  The other two are well-known and well-regarded firms, but I've never even heard of the last firm.  Did Apple Insider just pick this one randomly?

My feeling is that Apple will beat concensus estimates - mostly on the belief that the Apple Ultra's sales are underestimated.  I think there was pent-up demand for the capabilities of this watch and, due to its price, will contribute a surprising amount to Apple's revenue.  More importantly, I think iPhone 14 may have had production delays, but those didn't happen until the end of November and this year, iPhone 14 sales started in September, so production and sales were probably already in high gear by the beginning of the quarter (October) and there might have already been the ability to build up a bit of a cushion by the time the covid slow-down happened.  So sales might not have ben affected as much as analysts fear.  I'm just guessing too, of course :-)

Going forward, Apple may have some growth issues.  While iPhone sales might still increase a few percentage points and similarly now Apple Watch sales might still incremental sales increases, I think Mac sales will be flat or down in the near future.  Apple has benefited from its move away from Intel and the home-bound demand during covid, but those waves are gone.  Increasingly, folks won't move from PC to Mac simply because they can't or won't because some critical or favorite software isn't available on the new Mac.  One example I can think of is Turbotax for Business.  Intuit never made a macOS version - but with x86-based Macs you could at least run the software in Parallels Desktop's virtual machine offering or dual-boot your Mac.  Now that is gone.  I got a new Mx MBP, but I am keeping my old x86-basd MBP around - just for that reason.  Others simply won't/can't do that.

I was hopeful that Apple would finally make some announcements with respect to its AR plans.  While I thought their rumored MR/VR headset was a side-show to help get developers writing more AR applications and prime demand for a later AR glass offering, the latest rumors have AR glasses - the one product that could easily help AAPL out of its growth doldrums - shelved for the time being.  If Apple, as expected, brings out a MR/VR headset this spring, it will be a dud from a revenue-generating perspective.  There are simply not enough people interested in immersing themselves in VR and, more importantly, not enough people who look forward to looking like dorks wearing ski-goggle (or bigger) sized headsets in public.  Any MR/VR headset will sell as hotly as Apple's HomePod.  Technically good, but not enough buyers to make it have any impact on Apple's bottom line.