twolf2919

DAalseth said:

Reminds me of the story on AI a year or more ago. Some analyst was saying that Apple wouldn’t be able to move any meaningful part of its manufacturing out of China for at least a decade or more. 

Apple may never be able to completely withdraw from China, but according to Yoshinaga, suppliers are preparing to move out much faster than expected. 

Now we just need to move chip fab away from Taiwan. 

Not sure what you're suggesting - that the analyst was wrong?  This article doesn't contradict the analyst - it's simply saying that a minor Apple supplier is expanding its manufacturing in Vietnam.  Sort of related, does Apple publish a list of its supply chain partners?  I'd venture to guess that the vast majority of parts going into Apple's bread-and-butter product, the iPhone, are still made in China.  Even once TSMC's fab in Arizona comes online in a couple years, it'll only fulfill part of Apple's needs - and that Arizona fab will still be using parts made in China.

Why is it so hard for authors to get AR vs VR correct?  All the rumors about an imminent new Apple device have been for a VR or MR/VR product, not an AR device.  Heck, even the stock photo used for this article shows goggles with opaque front - something you could not have with AR glasses/goggles.

JP234 said:

twolf2919 said:

JP234 said:

twolf2919 said:

I agree with most of what Morgan Stanley is saying - but they obviously don't know their AR from their VR.  There is 0% probability Apple will be coming out with an AR product this year.  Most likely, it'll announce a VR headset this year, but given the niche market that is VR and the rumored price point of > $1.5k, the release of such a VR headset will not result in any meaningful revenue for AAPL in 2023.

You think that tech industry analysts at Morgan Stanley, with resources you can't even imagine, don't know these things and you do?
That's hubris.

No hubris - just a lot of experience, including a stint at Morgan Stanley in the '90s..  Analysts guessing what a company like Apple will bring to market has very little to do with the financial resources at their disposal - I doubt a Morgan Stanley analyst has any more access to Apple product secrets than anybody else.  If they did, Apple as a publicly traded company could actually get into trouble.  They read news, rumors, and attend Apple quarterly earnings calls - just like you and me could (and I do).  All the rumors so far, including from fairly accurate rumor sources such as Mark Gurman and Kuo Ming Chi, have suggested that a MR/VR headset in the $2k range is forthcoming, possibly as early as Apple's developers conference in June.

"I doubt a Morgan Stanley analyst has any more access to Apple product secrets than anybody else."
If you had worked at the trading desk of M-S, you would know different. My guess is that even if you did work for the company, your role was not in that division.

You can doubt all you want.  It is true that I was not a trader - my role at the time was to get Morgan Stanley started with its first web-based tools and products - i.e. I was a software developer.  But in that role I actually wrote some of the tools the traders subsequently used.   Traders have a heck of a lot more financial tools/information at their disposal than normal folks, but they don't magically have access to more company/tech news than you and I.

But this discussion is going nowhere.   Thanks for your insightful contribution to this thread.

JP234 said:

twolf2919 said:

I agree with most of what Morgan Stanley is saying - but they obviously don't know their AR from their VR.  There is 0% probability Apple will be coming out with an AR product this year.  Most likely, it'll announce a VR headset this year, but given the niche market that is VR and the rumored price point of > $1.5k, the release of such a VR headset will not result in any meaningful revenue for AAPL in 2023.

You think that tech industry analysts at Morgan Stanley, with resources you can't even imagine, don't know these things and you do?
That's hubris.

No hubris - just a lot of experience, including a stint at Morgan Stanley in the '90s..  Analysts guessing what a company like Apple will bring to market has very little to do with the financial resources at their disposal - I doubt a Morgan Stanley analyst has any more access to Apple product secrets than anybody else.  If they did, Apple as a publicly traded company could actually get into trouble.  They read news, rumors, and attend Apple quarterly earnings calls - just like you and me could (and I do).  All the rumors so far, including from fairly accurate rumor sources such as Mark Gurman and Kuo Ming Chi, have suggested that a MR/VR headset in the $2k range is forthcoming, possibly as early as Apple's developers conference in June.

I agree with most of what Morgan Stanley is saying - but they obviously don't know their AR from their VR.  There is 0% probability Apple will be coming out with an AR product this year.  Most likely, it'll announce a VR headset this year, but given the niche market that is VR and the rumored price point of > $1.5k, the release of such a VR headset will not result in any meaningful revenue for AAPL in 2023.