delreyjones
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China reports record sales and 33% growth in non-Android smartphones, casts doubt on 'peak iPhone'
Yes we know. You’ve told us repeatedly that this year’s info is factual and last year’s was rumor. But I don’t think that’s as important as you apparently do. Last year Cook told us that even when a particular number is factual, that’s still only a small part of the extremely complex supply chain story. Apple doesn’t share the details of its supply chain with anyone, so at best you’re speculating … reading tea leaves. And yes, you’ve also repeatedly told us that this year there are multiple suppliers announcing cuts. Indeed, that’s evidence that bolsters your case, but it’s far from conclusive. You sound like you’re 100% confident that Apple’s March quarter will disappoint. You’d be more persuasive if you showed some uncertainty, like maybe you were only 75% confident.jonl said:
Again, I've not been talking about "chatter", i.e. rumors from "supply chain sources". I've been talking about quarterly reports and guidance along with warnings from the actual suppliers, multiple suppliers in this case. Do you see the difference?And no, I’m not sufficiently motivated to study Apple’s supply chain. Tim Cook has discouraged me from doing so, and he’s never led me wrong yet. In a similar fashion, my eyes sometimes glaze over while reading Daniel Eran Dilger’s voluminous details. I’m insufficiently motivated to study that info either, so maybe you’re in good company ;=)
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China reports record sales and 33% growth in non-Android smartphones, casts doubt on 'peak iPhone'
You haven't convinced me that things are any different this year. One thing that's definitely the same amongst you Supply Chain Tea Leaf Analysts is your level of confidence. You sounded 100% confident last year and it's the same this year. Time will tell.jonl said:
Like I said, my "very different" was due to ...
One thing I'm curious about is how many AI readers who are also investors have become scared enough to sell in this last season of concern? Count me as one who is indeed concerned (I'm not nearly as confident as the Tea Leaf experts), but not concerned enough to sell. I've never regretted holding AAPL, but I did sell a little a few years back which I soon regretted. I definitely don't try to judge the peaks and valleys, that's close to insanity, but buying and holding has worked very well.
Any AI readers who haven't gotten worried and sold due to all of these naysayers? Speak up and be counted! -
Apple's competition is going to have a tough year in 2016
I like this article because it helps illustrate how myopic Wall Street with respect to Apple and its competitors. It’s like the market gets tricked by a bunch of high-tech fantasies and it can’t see the big picture clearly.Google has only enjoyed one significant source of income, and now, search in the well-moneyed mobile space (i.e., the iPhone) is in a precarious position. We don’t know what Apple is going to do, but the rumors are that Google will no longer be the default search at the end of the year, not to mention the decreasing importance of ad-supported search compared to other discovery technologies. This isn’t exactly an existential threat to Google, but it could seriously hurt their top and bottom line. The market apparently has almost no awareness of this threat.Similarly, the market is too impressed with Microsoft’s new CEO. They’re expecting magic from this human being. Microsoft is, in a sense, better diversified than Google since it’s done well both with Windows and Office; but Windows today is clearly not what anyone in Redmond wanted. It plays no role in the mobile space and it’s being given away on the desktop. The problem is far bigger than their CEO, but the market wants to believe that Balmer was a bum and Nadella is a savior, but this all smacks of desperation.Kudos to DED for shining a light on these truths.
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Apple's competition is going to have a tough year in 2016
Why do you read them and then comment? They're easy to avoid. Do something with your time that you enjoy.
These long, poorly written articles full of bitterness, that praise Apple to the heavens, while jousting against imaginary critics are tiresome, unfair, and uninteresting once you realize how biased they are. Please stop. Someone knock that chip off Daniel's shoulder so he can write properly.
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Real world iPhone 6s adoption data contradicts Apple supplier channel check rumors
In Apple's description of Supplier Responsibility, http://www.apple.com/supplier-responsibility/, it looks like there are more than 600 suppliers. Unless someone is tracking all of them, noting how much each is going up and down compared to normal for this year, plus constantly adding new ones, then they know very little. So to answer your question, I need about 600 more with a lot more detail on each one.johnjohnstone said:
Skyworksdelreyjones said:"Every single Apple supplier"? Seriously? How many suppliers are there? Can you tell us how many there are and how many you follow closely?
Avago
Qorvo
Cirrus Logic
Invensense
Foxconn - said to have extended holiday time off for workers
Dialog
Sharp
Pegatron
How many more do you need?
Long term I'm still bullish on Apple. They just have too much cash, to loyal of a fanbase, to much talent, to strong an ecosystem to be in the dumps for too long. I see iPhone 7 bring unit growth back. But long term Apple needs to grow services revenue.
