delreyjones

tmay said:

delreyjones said:

Is it OK with you if I wait for the quarterly report before I admit to the end of iPhone growth?  Analysts read these tea leaves every year, and yeah, like a broken clock they'll no doubt be accurate some time in the future.  But this time?  I'll wait to hear it from the horse's mouth.  Too many unethical manipulators, as described in the Slingshot Theory of AAPL manipulation:   http://fortune.com/2012/10/08/meet-one-of-the-guys-tugging-on-the-apple-slingshot/

I'm not saying you're an unethical manipulator, but you don't have any significant history in AI and you're encouraging us to sell.  If you're not a manipulator, at the very least your behavior is consistent with being one.

Wall Street works overtime to get (deadbeat*) stockholders to panic and dump long term holdings.

Can't gamble in the Casino without convincing the mark to bring his life savings.

*Deadbeat

A "deadbeat" is the unflattering term sometimes used in the credit card industry to describe consumers who pay off their balances every month, using the lenders' money but paying no interest on it. The more-polite, official term is "transactor." Since the recession's end, deadbeats -- or transactors -- have been on the rise, since more consumers see the wisdom of using credit cards as a tool of convenience, not an instrument of debt.

I'm assuming there is a similar term for stockholders sitting on their long term holdings, rather than playing in the Casino.

Thanks for the vocabulary lesson.  I had no idea I was a "deadbeat" in the eyes of the credit card industry but now I understand.  I've also been a whatever-it-is-for-us-buy-and-hold types with APPL and it's worked out well.  I don't actually know of johnjohnstone is a hustler/scam artist/manipulator, but he sure looks like one.

johnjohnstone said:

Slowing 6s sales won't show up till March and June quarter. Dec quarter iPhone 6s sales should match or beat 6 sales. All the supply chain reports are for phones sold in 2016.

I think its time for people just to admit that iPhone units can't go up forever. We are at or very near peak iPhone. At max we have another 3-5 year of iPhone growth, unless Apple sells phones for a much lower price point.  So Apple really has only 2 choices if it wants to keep growing revenue. Either they need to lower the price of iPhones or they need to sell more services or do both.

Is it OK with you if I wait for the quarterly report before I admit to the end of iPhone growth?  Analysts read these tea leaves every year, and yeah, like a broken clock they'll no doubt be accurate some time in the future.  But this time?  I'll wait to hear it from the horse's mouth.  Too many unethical manipulators, as described in the Slingshot Theory of AAPL manipulation:   http://fortune.com/2012/10/08/meet-one-of-the-guys-tugging-on-the-apple-slingshot/

I'm not saying you're an unethical manipulator, but you don't have any significant history in AI and you're encouraging us to sell.  If you're not a manipulator, at the very least your behavior is consistent with being one.

johnjohnstone said:

I am indeed predicting a YoY decline in revenue for the March quarter and maybe even the June quarter. That would be enough for the market to give Apple a PE of 9. With small declines in revenue I could see profits to be estimated at $50 billion. $50 billion x 9 = $450 billion market cap. That gives you a share price of about $84. But panic and macro news probably drops this to $80.

johnjohnstone said:

Fact is no matter how much profits a company makes if they are not growing revenue they won't be rewarded a PE of over 8-10. Right now Apple's PE is at 11. It can easily get to a PE of 9 if they show negative revenue growth. That gets the price to about $84 and fear can push it to $80.

You've repeated this $80 quite a few times (I lost count), but you don't say how you arrive at it.  Why not $85?  Why not $75?  Are you predicted a YOY decline in the March quarter, or are you predicting flat earnings and a declining P/E?  You're implying flat profits and a declining P/E, but you don't seem to be confident enough to be explicit.  Just to be clear, I don't know that you're wrong, but I haven't seen any analysis behind your $80 figure.  It looks like you're basing this number on intuition.

aeassa said:

I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning. 

Thanks for that contribution to the discussion.  

I can see you're a long-time contributor to AI /s 

and you're here to tell us that Apple's future doesn't look good.  We've never hear that before ;=)