tenthousandthings

Probably also worth noting that the M2 MacBook Air has the model identifier Mac14,2 and the 13" M2 MacBook Pro has the model identifier Mac14,7

The specs in the November leak indicate Mac14,6 is likely to be the M2 MacBook Pro 16"

So it appears that Apple may be moving away from using the specific model names in the identifiers and just calling them all Mac — I believe (without actually checking to be sure) this is what they already do for iPhone and iPad identifiers. So they’re just making it consistent across all their product lines. If it runs macOS, the model identifier starts with Mac, if it runs iOS it’s an iPhone, if it runs iPadOS it’s an iPad.

It’s maybe also useful to remember, as far as I know, that these model identifiers only exist as references in software. They appear in About This Mac, but they aren’t printed or engraved anywhere on the device or the packaging. 

The previous “leak” got a lot of traction in the media. It's possible this one is on purpose, to throw doubt in the earlier one, which was likely fake.

blastdoor said:

tenthousandthings said:

I've been waiting for a thread to post this in, I guess it can go here. The tl;dr version is there has been one other unusual, long time interval in the past history of Apple Silicon, between the A10 and the A10X, and that is the only case where Apple switched process nodes in between. This fact could indicate that the reason for the similarly long interval between the M2 and the M2Pro/Max (at least) is because of a process node change.

Below is a history of the A-Series and M-series to date. This is selective, but everything here is accurate and known, not speculative. I don't track every device. For Macs, I only note those that are not transitional. For example, for the M1 I only list the iMac 24" -- every other M1 Mac was transitional. I also track the TSMC process nodes.

A4 (March 2010) iPad 1 :: iPhone 4

A5 (March 2011) iPad 2 :: iPhone 4S

A5X (March 2012) iPad 3 

A6 (September 2012) iPhone 5

A6X (October 2012) iPad 4

A7 (September 2013) iPhone 5S :: iPad Air 1

A8 (September 2014) iPhone 6 [TSMC 20nm]

A8X (October 2014) iPad Air 2 [TSMC 20nm]

A9 (September 2015) iPhone 6S :: iPad 5 [TSMC 16nm]

A9X (November 2015) iPad Pro 1 [TSMC 16nm]

A10 (September 2016) iPhone 7 :: iPad 6 :: iPad 7 [TSMC 16nm gen3]

A10X (June 2017) iPad Pro 2 [TSMC 10nm]

A11 (September 2017) iPhone 8, iPhone X [TSMC 10nm]

A12 (September 2018) iPhone XS :: iPad Air 3 :: iPad 8 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]

A12X (October 2018) iPad Pro 3 [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]

A12Z (March 2020) iPad Pro 4 :: Developer Transition Kit [TSMC 7nm gen1 "N7"]

A13 (September 2019) iPhone 11 :: iPad 9 [TSMC 7nm gen2 "N7P" (P = Plus)]

A14 (October 2020) iPhone 12 :: iPad Air 4 :: iPad 10 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]

M1 (November 2020) iMac 24" :: iPad Pro 5 [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]

M1 Pro/Max (October 2021) MacBook Pro 14" 16" [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]

M1 Ultra (March 2022) Mac Studio [TSMC 5nm gen1 "N5"]

A15 (September 2021) iPhone 13 :: iPhone 14 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]

M2 (June 2022) MacBook Air 4 :: iPad Pro 6 [TSMC 5nm gen2 "N5P"]

A16 (September 2022) iPhone 14 Pro [TSMC 5nm gen3 "N4"]

Notice the long time interval between the A10 and the A10X. In every other case (the A6/A6X, A8/A8X, A9/A9X, and A12/A12X), there is one month between the release of the flagship iPhone SoC and the flagship iPad SoC. Only the A10 and A10X have a nine-month gap between them. How is that different from the others? It's the only one with a process node change. Moreover, it's a big jump, from the third generation of TSMC's 16nm node to its new 10nm node.

The second thing to point out is that all of the M1 SoCs share the same process node. That's currently our only M-series data point, so we can't draw any conclusions, but I've arranged the releases in a way that highlights the fact the M-series has replaced the X variants.

Next, a lot of speculation has been made about future 3nm TSMC process nodes. But TSMC has two still-upcoming 5nm nodes: gen4 "N4P" (P = Plus) and gen5 "N4X" (X = Extreme). The N4X node is especially intriguing with respect to a new Mac Pro: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2895 -- I don't know about you, but this press release, with its emphasis on HPC, advanced packaging, and "the common design rules of the N5 process," reads like a recipe for M2 Ultra/Extreme SoCs.

In conclusion: if the past history of the A-series is any indication, the long, likely eight- or nine-month gap between the M2 and the M2 Pro+ probably indicates a process node change. It still seems too early for TSMC's 3nm tech, so that leaves the N4P and N4X nodes. Here's a wild guess for what the end of my list above will look like prior to the start of a new cycle with the M3.

M2 Pro/Max (March 2023) iMac 24" :: Mac mini 6 :: MacBook Pro 14" 16" [TSMC 5nm gen4 "N4P"]

M2 Ultra/Extreme (June 2023) Mac Studio :: Mac Pro [TSMC 5nm gen5 "N4X"]

I had totally lost sight of that process difference between the A10 and A10X. I had pretty much given up hope that the M2 Pro etc chips would be on anything other than 5nm, but you point to a really interesting historical data point! 

I'm still not very optimistic, though. There was a pretty long gap between the M1 and the M1 Pro/Max, too. 

Ugh, I forgot another obvious possibility for this hypothetical M2 Pro/Max+ process node change: N4 (already in use for the A16)… 

I purposely avoided the question of where M2 Pro/Max would be placed in the history, under A15 or possibly under A16. The split between the iPhone 14 (A15) and the iPhone 14 Pro (A16) is unprecedented, so who knows what that means going forward.

I've been waiting for a thread to post this in, I guess it can go here. The tl;dr version is there has been one other unusual, long time interval in the past history of Apple Silicon, between the A10 and the A10X, and that is the only case where Apple switched process nodes in between. This fact could indicate that the reason for the similarly long interval between the M2 and the M2Pro/Max (at least) is because of a process node change.

mattinoz said:

macapfel said:

I have been waiting for an M2 iMac - in particular I am curious for some potential design adjustments. Nothing in the rumours mill about that?

Given the bump hasn't happened to M2 as yet I wonder the iMac and MacMini might move to the M1 Pro instead of the M2. 
Arguably a better upgrade than the M2 anyway especially given both desktops can run free in terms of power draw and heat the way a laptop/tablet can't and the studio starts with the Max chip so the Pro missing from the Desktop top line up would seem a natural fit. 

Have the M1 pro as a good and better options available in stores have the M2 Pro as built to order best option. Next year rolls down as M2 and  M3. 

I would think with a redesign of the mIni internals they could even have the same mainboard for both the Mac mini and iMac24. with the socket of the iMac plugging into a round power supply under it based on the power supply from the Mac Studio. 

Makes sense, but it doesn’t explain the delay in the iMac and the Mini. The only thing that explains the ongoing delay is they are waiting to introduce the M2 Pro as an option.