tenthousandthings

Pretty much everything about this rumor is unexpected. That somehow makes it feel like it has to be accurate. It’s not hard to imagine how pandemic issues could cause them to extend production of this model and do a simple refresh.

The most interesting thing about this rumor is the M2 refresh, so soon. If true, then combined with the recent EEC filings, this means the new laptop model number is an M2 Air, and at least one of the desktop model numbers is an M2 Mini. 

dewme said:

tenthousandthings said:

crowley said:

dewme said:

In my opinion it seems backward thinking to assume that Apple will simply follow the same kind of incremental spec bumping on a predefined schedule that Intel followed with their line of CPUs. There is no reason why Apple would arbitrarily release updated SoCs every 12 months, 24 months, or whatever time increment you want to speculate about for no reason other than the calendar flipping to a new month or year. This is "Intel's Way of Looking at the World," i.e., milking the cash cow, not Apple's way of looking at the world. 

Sure, because Apple release iPhones any time they damn well want, not on any kind of easily observable schedule.

I don't think Dewme's basic observation can be quite so easily dismissed. There is nothing in Apple's extensive Macintosh history to suggest they will suddenly change their ways and start refreshing computers like clockwork, like they do for phones. The iPhone is the anomaly here, a product of competitive pressures and sales volumes that don't really translate into the PC realm.

I get the argument for it, but the idea that Apple is going to suddenly start adhering to a regular, predictable refresh and/or redesign schedule for Macs is something that has never been the case in the past. Expecting that to suddenly change just because Apple is designing its own silicon may or may not be a reasonable expectation. But it's definitely not yet "reality" (to quote Muthuk_vanalingam's response to Dewme above).

To put it another way, for example, I am very interested to see what Apple does with the next release of the Mac mini. My keen interest hinges on Apple delivering a certain set of features and capabilities that compel me purchase the mini, not on whether Apple puts the “M2” in the mini. I assume that there is an Apple product (or several) in Apple’s release pipeline that is driving requirements for the “M2” chip. 

It really boils down to Apple having the ability to design products with a high level of certainty that the underlying components will be up to the task and will meet what the product owners demand. This is an approach and luxury that Apple never had when they had a dependency on Intel. They had to settle for whatever Intel could fit into Intel’s planning and chip roadmaps. Sometimes Intel had nothing and left Apple sitting on its hands. This is why I see a distinct difference between how Apple deals with its internal Apple Silicon design team versus how they dealt with Intel. It’s now the Apple products and their refresh cycles that are driving the Apple Silicon chip designs and their refresh schedules. 

I think it's probably going to be more of an interplay between the two, but the point stands that it won't necessarily be a regular, predictable schedule.

I also think the PowerPC product cycles might be more useful as a model, instead of the Intel era. A history of that could provide some insight. I'd love to hear what Daniel Eran Dilger might have to say about that. [Hello? Apple Insider? Can you hire him to write a piece on that?]

I keep thinking about the final Power Mac G5, which provided the form factor for the archetypal Intel Mac Pro. Also the G4 Cube, which may just have been ahead of its time. Plus the distinct evolution of the iMac in that era, leading to the final iMac G5, another form factor that is pretty much what we have today -- a computer inside of a display. So, yeah, new Mac mini! 

So I think generally you are right, we will see innovation toward "what product owners demand," as you put it. But there will also be an interplay with what is possible.

DrBoar2 said:

[...] I remember the 68k to PPC transition and the first generation was just Quadras with a new CPU. The second generation added PCI slots USB and all that new stuff in a new box design.

The PPC to Intel had the same two step pattern with CPU first and box and features at the second step.

Now we have the third CPU transition from Intel to  AS/Mx. First the CPU transfers to current boxes and features last year. Now it is time to take step number two with what ever they are upgrading next month.

That's about right. Step one took place in 2020 (M1 put into existing Air, Mini, and 13-inch MBP), and you're missing the fact that step two began in 2021 with the 24-inch iMac and the new MacBook Pro designs. So whatever comes this Spring, it will be more of step two, not the start of step two...

crowley said:

dewme said:

In my opinion it seems backward thinking to assume that Apple will simply follow the same kind of incremental spec bumping on a predefined schedule that Intel followed with their line of CPUs. There is no reason why Apple would arbitrarily release updated SoCs every 12 months, 24 months, or whatever time increment you want to speculate about for no reason other than the calendar flipping to a new month or year. This is "Intel's Way of Looking at the World," i.e., milking the cash cow, not Apple's way of looking at the world. 

Sure, because Apple release iPhones any time they damn well want, not on any kind of easily observable schedule.

I don't think Dewme's basic observation can be quite so easily dismissed. There is nothing in Apple's extensive Macintosh history to suggest they will suddenly change their ways and start refreshing computers like clockwork, like they do for phones. The iPhone is the anomaly here, a product of competitive pressures and sales volumes that don't really translate into the PC realm.

I get the argument for it, but the idea that Apple is going to suddenly start adhering to a regular, predictable refresh and/or redesign schedule for Macs is something that has never been the case in the past. Expecting that to suddenly change just because Apple is designing its own silicon may or may not be a reasonable expectation. But it's definitely not yet "reality" (to quote Muthuk_vanalingam's response to Dewme above).

Makes sense for the much-rumored Mini Pro and iMac Pro.

As for an M1 portable next month, not much makes sense with the M2 on the horizon. I'll go out on a limb and guess it has to be a MacBook, with colors. A lower-end option that wouldn't get the M2 right away. The M2 launch will be reserved for the new Air, an entry-level Mini, and maybe an entry-level 14-inch MBP. So it would still be a year before this MacBook and the current iMac get the M2. I think that probably works from a marketing perspective.

I'm sure this is wrong, but it's the only thing that makes sense to me...