sockrolid

tmay said:

Writing about Apple's innovation efforts isn't much different than viewing icebergs; ninety percent is hidden below the surface.

Using that for the basis of a long term prediction is at best, moronic.

Exactly.  Apple "analysts" can only extrapolate from what they see now and what they saw in the past.
None of them is given anything more than controlled and uncontrolled leaks about the future.
And they get those leaks from the media (including rumor sites such as AI with well-placed sources).

All of which makes Apple "analysts" look like a bunch of clueless rookie trainees.
And that causes frustration.  Which causes some of them to lash out.  
Am I right, Oppenheimer?

AppleInsider said:

... charging that the company is headed in the wrong direction and poised for a "decade-long malaise" as a result.

Must be a (former) "Apple needs to buy Disney" guy.

rezwits said:

I believe people seriously underestimate just how amazing the Watch is....

Precisely the same thing happened when the iPhone was announced and released.
Apple called it iPhone because its superficial appearance was that of a smartphone without physical keys.
But the name was misleading and it threw off all would-be competitors who were in denial and hoped it would fail.
No.  It wasn't just another "phone with apps."  It was, and still is, a pocket computer that has a phone feature.

Massive difference.  Competitors discovered this far too late.  Apple had already built out the infrastructure for it.
It's what Apple does now.  They work on the hardest, longest-term component first.  Usually server-based.
Then when that infrastructure is ready (enough), they reveal the tip of the iceberg, as it were.
In this case it was iPhone on top of the iTunes infrastructure and now iCloud. 
Competitors banged out copies of the hardware, with cheesy imitations of the OS.
But the lack of a robust iTunes / App Store infrastructure was fatal for most of them.

This happened all over again in 2010 when Apple released iPad.  With no cell carrier subsidies.
Plenty of quick-and-dirty iPad wannabes appeared like weeds.  Most of them disappeared just as quickly.
Remember the Hearst Skiff?  Archos 9?  Rocketfish Tablet?  Fusion Garage JooJoo?  HP Windows Slate?
Reference: http://www.technologizer.com/2011/09/30/ipad-alternatives-3/

Some otherwise intelligent tech writers dismiss  Watch as just a digital watch with apps.
Exactly the same trap they, and would-be competitors, fell into when iPhone was released.
The name of the product colors the reviewers' and pundits' and even users' expectations.
Especially if they haven't tried it and lived with it for a few months.
But eventually  Watch will leverage iCloud and our cellular communication infrastructure as iPhone does.
In ways we can't even imagine as outsiders who don't know Apple's long-term roadmap.

And don't forget - we're just at the primordial stage of "wearables" and the Internet of Things.
It will all evolve in a seemingly natural, inevitable way.  
So yeah, as good as  Watch is now, it'll just keep getting better.

AppleInsider said:

Fitbit will discontinue the Pebble brand if and when the deal goes through, the report said.

Show of hands.
Who saw this happening eventually?

Yeah.  I figured Pebble was doomed the day Apple announced the  Watch.
It was so glaringly obvious.

Wow.  That's some serious oversharing!