brucemc

sog35 said:

robertwalter said:

All time high?

Did time begin last year?

Because I seem to remember a high around 134 and 1/2. About two years ago. 

All time high Close (price at end of day)

$700 billion is impressive. But if you take out Net Cash its actually worth less than Google.

Actually, not if you do the same with Alphabet.  Apple's net cash is ~$150B ($246B-$90B debt with a bit of rounding down).  So Apple's value - net cash is ~$547B.  Alphabet's valuation is $575B, but they have ~$80B net cash, so Alphabet - net cash =~ $495B.

Of course, one is doing it with a P/E of 16, and the other a P/E of 30...(P/E's not calculated excluding cash).

I was going to respond to one of the trolls there, but seems post was removed.

AppleInsider said:

...
In comments during an investor conference call on Tuesday, CFO Luca Maestri said sales were higher than expected, noting iPad captured 85 percent of the market for tablets costing more than $200. The company's earnings release further touted satisfaction and business adoption in a subsequent conference call.

This comment is actually the most interesting info. I would have easily believed 85% of say over $400 or $500, but over $200??!!  So there really isn't a tablet market - just an iPad market - with a low end video / game device and toy market. 

gatorguy said:

jungmark said:

Odd. Haven't these analyst been saying the new MacBook Pros are failures? The watch isn't a hit? iPhone orders are being cut left and right?

I think it's primarily just the few that get mentioned here because they're odd-out and "news-worthy" (!). Most analysts are reportedly expecting a return to growth. Relying on a few spotty articles as a judgment of Wall Street expectations isn't likely to give an accurate picture. For the most part Wall Street trusts what Apple says in forward-looking statements and a return to traditional growth is what Apple had said to expect this quarter. 

It is true that for the most part, most analysts are positive about Apple in their views regarding iPhone having growth remaining, revenue growing, etc.  And Wall Street does have confidence in Apple's projections.  It is the media - mostly tech media & bloggers, but more mainstream sources as well - that publish the "Apple is forever doomed" articles.  

Wall Street gets the criticism regarding how they value Apple relative to almost every other company.  Apple's PE ratio a short time ago was in the single digits ex-cash (it is probably about 10 now), whereas the S&P 500 average PE is about 17-18.  Proctor and Gamble, the number one consumer staples company (a hot bed of innovation:) has a PE of 15-16.  Walmart has a PE of 14-15.  These companies sales growth rate over the last 5 years (or even last 2-3) have not been as high as Apple's, and yet they are valued much higher.

Given Apple's return of capital (buybacks and dividends), and a PE of 10 (ex-cash), Apple is being valued as though it will be gone in a little over decade.  Not as though they are the premium consumer tech company which is growing sales, maintaining margins, building a product-attached-services business, and introducing new product categories which have some reasonable growth potential.

If Apple was valued like Walmart, they would be a trillion dollar company.  Which, as per Horace Dediu, is about what iOS devices have generated as an ecosystem for Apple since the iPhone was introduced.

Yes, I would say that Apple had a very good year in 2016:
- Introduced a great new product in AirPods. Performs great, packed with innovation, and is delighting the user. I am loving mine. In bringing this same technology to Beats line with the W1 chip, Apple is well on track to grabbing the large majority of value in the headphone market as they do on their other markets.
- iPhone 7 was a very solid update. I just got one a couple weeks ago and the battery life is just amazing. Often have 50% or more remaining at end of day. Just a complete joyful upgrade over my previous 5s, in every way.
- Apple Watch updates with watchOS 3, lower entry pricing and the Series 2 seems to have hit a sweet spot. SW is much more useable for those with original. The early competitors are falling off and Apple has a commanding lead of the high end. While a small category now, wearables have the most promise in the electronics market in terms of potential dollars and future platform. 
- Updated MacBook Pro. While not without some controversy, it is hard to argue that the product isn't a huge upgrade over previous model. Many innovative features that will get more valuable with time (TouchBar, Touch ID, high performance multiple use ports that allow power, data, audio and video over a single cable).  Together with best screen on a laptop, super fast storage and amazingly thin and light.  Biggest impediment to more sales is high price coupled with the high USD. 
- Continuing advancement in custom silicon which will pay dividends across all product lines in years to come. 
- Great growth in services, led by Apple Music, with Apple Pay finally getting some real traction and now leading in mobile payment solutions. 

Was it perfect?  Of course not. Vastly better than any other company in those markets - absolutely!