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China Mobile expected to launch 4G service with iPhone 5s/5c on December 18

post #1 of 21
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The world's largest carrier by subscriber count, China Mobile, announced plans to launch a new brand for mobile service December 18 during its 4G Global Partners Conference. The move is expected to coincide with its launch of Apple's latest iPhone 5s and 5c models.

China Mobile


A report by Lorraine Luk of the Wall Street Journal cited Mizuho Securities analyst Marvin Lo in Hong Kong as stating that "a deal with China Mobile would give Apple a big boost in the China market as the largest local carrier has the most wealthy subscriber base.

"I estimate that among China Mobile's more than 700 million mobile subscribers, at least 10% or 70 million wealthier ones would be potential customers for iPhones," he added.

China Mobile will launch its 4G network using the nation's home grown flavor of LTE known as TD-LTE. The carrier technology is incompatible with existing 4G LTE, an attempt by China to avoid paying patent royalties to Qualcomm, much as it earlier did with its "TD-SCDMA" version of 3G service.

Apple's iPhone 5s and 5c expressly include support for TD-LTE, and the two models were approved by China's Telecom Equipment Certification Center in early September.

The two new iPhones are among a small minority of devices capable of working on China Mobile's 4G network and licensed by the state to do so.

A series of advertising collateral and job postings alluding to the imminent launch of Apple's new iPhones on the carrier have leaked over the past few months.
post #2 of 21

Good way to add another few million sales to the holiday quarter. Plus some spill over into next year for the people who couldn't get one.

 

It's not just an iPad Christmas - it's an iPhone one as well.

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post #3 of 21

Perfect timing right before Chinese New Year (Jan 31st) and right in time for production of the 5S/5C to be able to fill the channels.

post #4 of 21
Hells to the the yes. Finally.
post #5 of 21
Goodbye to the worldwide supply of gold iPhone 5s! 1biggrin.gif They will be working for a long time to fill the demand for them, just for China alone.

Awesome news for Apple in general. Adding a potential 30% to iPhone sales, from just one carrier alone? That's huge.

Any word on how sales have been on NTT Docomo in japan? I know they were topping the top-ten sales list for awhile with the iPhone 5s (32GB). Oh, that top ten list was ALL iPhone, by the way!

http://en.rocketnews24.com/2013/11/13/japan-belongs-to-apple-iphone-claims-top-10-spots-in-total-smartphone-sales-in-november/
post #6 of 21
Well, that's a nice double-whammy. Win against Samsung, win with China Mobile.

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post #7 of 21
Awesome news! This'll net them more than the $290M they're getting from Samsung. Plus they save on shipping costs lol
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post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Awesome news! This'll net them more than the $290M they're getting from Samsung. Plus they save on shipping costs lol

 

$888 million. The $288 million (not $290 million) was ADDED to their previous win of $600 million... (NOTE: It may have been $598 million added to $290 million, but the end result is the same).


Edited by SpamSandwich - 11/21/13 at 2:10pm

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post #9 of 21

This is HUGE news. Another, say, 50M iPhones would mean an extra $30B in revenue, perhaps $6B - $7B in additional profit, and at a conservative P/E of 11x, 66B - 77B in additional market cap, or ~$75 - $85 in stock price.

 

Even allowing for the fact that some of it has been discounted by the market, I wonder why the after-hours price is still sideways....

post #10 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

This is HUGE news. Another, say, 50M iPhones would mean an extra $30B in revenue, perhaps $6B - $7B in additional profit, and at a conservative P/E of 11x, 66B - 77B in additional market cap, or ~$75 - $85 in stock price.

 

Even allowing for the fact that some of it has been discounted by the market, I wonder why the after-hours price is still sideways....

 

Never expect the stock market to act in what you or I might consider a rational manner. With the massive mix of large institutional investors, longs, shorts and self-serving analysts all working at cross-purposes, expect more of the same.

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post #11 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Awesome news! This'll net them more than the $290M they're getting from Samsung. Plus they save on shipping costs lol

$888 million. The $288 million (not $290 million) was ADDED to their previous win of $600 million... (NOTE: It may have been $598 million added to $290 million, but the end result is the same).

Indeed, a distinct difference which might lead to a stock buying opportunity lol
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post #12 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

This is HUGE news. Another, say, 50M iPhones would mean an extra $30B in revenue, perhaps $6B - $7B in additional profit, and at a conservative P/E of 11x, 66B - 77B in additional market cap, or ~$75 - $85 in stock price.

 

Even allowing for the fact that some of it has been discounted by the market, I wonder why the after-hours price is still sideways....

Probably because we have heard the CM rumors now for 3+ years and they never pan out.  Does look promising this time though.  

post #13 of 21

Two Q3 numbers for China Mobile:

 

Subscribers 755mln (up 0.6% qoq)

3G subscribers 170 mln (up 7.1% qoq)

 

Only the 3G subscribers are Apple's opportunity.

post #14 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by smalM View Post
 

Two Q3 numbers for China Mobile:

 

Subscribers 755mln (up 0.6% qoq)

3G subscribers 170 mln (up 7.1% qoq)

 

Only the 3G subscribers are Apple's opportunity.

 

Agreed, but also others may jump ship from Unicom and Telecom to get on Mobile's 4G network.

 

I don't know if something got lost in the translation in this report, but my experience in China is that China Mobile has the broadest coverage and covers all the rural areas and  I would have expected them to have the lowest proportion of high income earners (the percentage on 3G, much lower than on Unicom and Telecom would corroborate this).    In terms of absolute numbers, they probably have the higher number, but I would think  that 10% seems a bit on the high side?  Maybe it's all the CPC members!


Edited by JamesMac - 11/21/13 at 3:43pm
post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

This is HUGE news. Another, say, 50M iPhones would mean an extra $30B in revenue, perhaps $6B - $7B in additional profit, and at a conservative P/E of 11x, 66B - 77B in additional market cap, or ~$75 - $85 in stock price.

Even allowing for the fact that some of it has been discounted by the market, I wonder why the after-hours price is still sideways....

Thanks for doing the math here! Will see how rational the market is the next few days....
post #16 of 21

Don't count on them saving shipping costs... we recently sold a product in Australia to a person who travelled from Vietnam to Australia to buy the product and can you guess where the product is made...

 

yup.

post #17 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
 

 

Never expect the stock market to act in what you or I might consider a rational manner. With the massive mix of large institutional investors, longs, shorts and self-serving analysts all working at cross-purposes, expect more of the same.

 

its not an official announcement yet, CNBC didn't mention it so its still under the radar.   To top it off its in option sellers best interest to down the stock as much as they can for monthly opex tomorrow. 

 

Would be nice to have an official news tomorrow and a big pop, the stock manipulator would lose a lot of money.


Edited by herbapou - 11/21/13 at 7:04pm
post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

This is HUGE news. Another, say, 50M iPhones would mean an extra $30B in revenue, perhaps $6B - $7B in additional profit, and at a conservative P/E of 11x, 66B - 77B in additional market cap, or ~$75 - $85 in stock price.

Even allowing for the fact that some of it has been discounted by the market, I wonder why the after-hours price is still sideways....
Damn analysts need to find out from the bartender's guidance before coming up with their opinions, then the fund will follow...
post #19 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by smalM View Post

Two Q3 numbers for China Mobile:

Subscribers 755mln (up 0.6% qoq)
3G subscribers 170 mln (up 7.1% qoq)

Only the 3G subscribers are Apple's opportunity.

True, but China Mobile is building out the 3G network. Until recently that service was much smaller.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

Agreed, but also others may jump ship from Unicom and Telecom to get on Mobile's 4G network.

I don't know if something got lost in the translation in this report, but my experience in China is that China Mobile has the broadest coverage and covers all the rural areas and  I would have expected them to have the lowest proportion of high income earners (the percentage on 3G, much lower than on Unicom and Telecom would corroborate this).    In terms of absolute numbers, they probably have the higher number, but I would think  that 10% seems a bit on the high side?  Maybe it's all the CPC members!

While China Mobile has the broadest coverage, the 3G coverage is relatively new and is being built out rapidly. What I do not know, but I would highly expect, is that China Mobile has their 3G coverage concentrated in metro areas... as that would require the fewest number of towers to gain the most users.
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post #20 of 21
"Designed in California. Made in China." should prove a potent marketing campaign.

and yes, expect gold to outsell the other colors 10 to 1, and "5c" to stand for "5 times the sales, in China"
post #21 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

 

its not an official announcement yet, CNBC didn't mention it so its still under the radar.   To top it off its in option sellers best interest to down the stock as much as they can for monthly opex tomorrow. 

 

Would be nice to have an official news tomorrow and a big pop, the stock manipulator would lose a lot of money.

 

CNBC did not mention it because they are anti-Apple most of the time.

 

I think OPEX was last week.

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