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Apple's $44 billion in stock buybacks have helped increase market cap by $100 billion - Page 4

post #121 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


Dude just admit you got it wrong.

You said $570 was too high of a price to pay. One month latter and we hit $644. You were dead wrong. I was right. Just admit it and move on.

What you do with your money is not my concern. If anyone says he can guarantee you a 15% return its a scam.

We see $700 before year end. 90% confidence,
We see $750 before year end. 75% confidence.

Changing your story now?    I guess we shouldn't "BOOK IT" should we?


Actually, it's impossible to hit those numbers in a post split since it will go down due to the 7:1 split.  /s

post #122 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.

It's not based on race, it's based on the mentality behind it and what it promotes and represents and it has nothing to do with racial thoughts.

 

I'm referring to Dr. Dre and the type of rap that he produces and yes, when I hear a rapper with some really good jazz or some other form of music other than RAP music, rapping degrades the listening experience and I turn it off.  I've only run into a couple of songs that I've been able to listen to more than once that had rapping in it. It's VERY rare to hear a song where I can listen to it.  But they were much older rap songs and in those songs, there were actual musicians involved with the music portion and there was also some REAL melody lines using REAL notes on a musical scale so it was done with some degree of musicianship.  But the c-rap that's going on now that Dre does is disgusting especially the lyrics on his songs that he's done or the people he produces.


Please get off this racial BS because I have said that it's NOT the color of the skin, white people and other people of other skin color and racial backgrounds are also very much part of it.

 

You just can't seem to get off your own line of BS because you are in denial.  You live in denial.  STOP IT.  You just seem to think that people that don't like rap are racist against blacks?  Umm.  If i really wanted to spend more time on this, I could get a bunch of YouTube videos of blacks that are outspoken that make fun of and don't like rap music.  You should see what some of the black comedians say about the rappers. Check out Steve Harvey.  He makes fun of them because he doesn't even understand them because they don't speak English and there is too much hate in rap music.  

post #123 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.

You obviously have selective reading comprehension.

 

There have been a couple, only a COUPLE, of rap songs I can tolerate, but they are old songs but they had actual musicians on them.  White Lines is one of them.  The Run DMC version of Walk this Way was humorous and I kind of liked it when it first came out, the video is what made the song better as just listening to it got old pretty fast, but the video is what was kind of humorous, but I wouldn't say it's super high quality that I would say represents what Dre is all about.  Dre's more into derogatory illiterate crap.  but I don't normally listen to rap music nor would I promote saying that it's great and that it should be part of Apple upper management and what Apple's all about. I think they made a HUGE mistake and I don't like illiterate crap REGARDLESS of the skin color of the people creating it.  I can't stand EMINEM.  I think he and his music is total crap.  Does that mean I am a racist because of it? He's white and I'm white.  

 

You just select the words you want to use and create and publish a false perspective.  You are manipulative and therefor you mean NOTHING to me.

post #124 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

You obviously have selective reading comprehension.

Sure, keep telling yourself that.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #125 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Sure, keep telling yourself that.

I'm telling YOU this hoping that maybe you'll realize that you NEED to change your own personal BS.  Seriously.

 

We'll just see how long Dre will be with Apple... I'm just waiting for WWDC to see if there is going to be anything the new PR person has to clean up.  

post #126 of 137

Interesting that no one has mentioned Icahn’s insider trading.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #127 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post


 I just would rather invest in Apple when the P/E is at a lower point at this time in their situation since they aren't in high growth mode. .........
I also told you I wanted to WAIT to make a judgement until AFTER WWDC. WWDC is next week.

You are going off of hindsight, and hindsight is 20/20.
 You ran no analysis of your own or are you just believing what an analyst says as long as it makes you feel your stock is going to go up. I know that feeling well. What's the concesus with Wall Sreet? At the time we discussed it, it wasn't that great and I wasn't that confident from my own analysis at the time which I look at. If I don't feel confident, and then I look at what Wall Streett says and it's close to what I think BEFORE looking at their evaluations! then I'm cautious. 

 

Apple's PE is already low.  

 

The market cap is $545B.  Minus the $150B in cash and the market cap sans cash is $459B.  Estimated EPS is $42.  That gives it a PE of 11.  And when you said it was expensive at $570 a share the PE was below 10.

 

Google's PE ratio is 30.  Last quarter Google grew GAAP EPS only 2%.  Apple grew GAAP EPS 12% last quarter.

 

You said to wait till after WWDC.  Problem is since you waited you missed out on the run from $570 to $644.  I'm not relying on hindsight.  I said Apple was a buy when it was $570 one month ago.  That's not hindsight.  That's a good prediction.  And if you read my post history you will see that I suggested buying Apple shares at the $400-$500 level.

 

So you depend on Wall Street analyst to make buy decisions?  That my friend is a bad idea.  When the stock was $400 last year half of Wall Street was saying to sell.  The price targets were at $500.  Listening to them would only lead to losing a ton of money.  Now Wall Street is confident.  But if you listened to them you would have missed the rise from $400-$644.  A little late to the party IMO.  I bought shares in the $400 and $500 level and ignored Wall street.  When Wall Street was saying to sell they were probably buying at $400.  

 

You want to see my analysis why I think Apple will reach $750 this year?

 

1. The last two quarters Apple has shown 10-15% EPS growth.  The previous 4 quarters were negative growth. They have turned the corner and so has the stock.

 

2. I'm expecting a PE ratio of 17.  The average PE ratio of the S&P500 is 19.20.  Apple is best in breed.  Even at a discount PE of 17 that will give a stock price of $750 ( $44 EPS x 17).

 

3. Apple is a cash generating machine.  They generate $45B in free cash flows a year.  In 10 years they will be able to buyback 50% of their shares with a conservative buyback of $25B a year.  That means if all things stay equal they will be increasing EPS by 100%.  If profits stay flat their EPS per share would be $88.  Even at a conservative PE of 12 that gives a price per share of $1050.

 

4. iPhone6 will dominate. The only reason to buy an Android phone over an iPhone has been screen size.  That advantage will disappear with iPhone6.  This will be a huge upgrade cycle as many 4, 4S, and 5 users will finally upgrade.  I'm expecting 65-70 Million iPhones sold in the Dec quarter.

 

5. New product category.  Cook made it clear that 2014 would be the year of new product categories.  This will lead to profit growth and a stronger ecosystem.

 

6. Once Apple buys back 50% of its shares (the current buyback already will take out 15-20% of the shares) Apple can easily offer a 4-5% dividend.  Free cash flows is $45B with only 500,000,000 outstanding shares.  

 

7. Beats acquistion is a positive. They made key hires in the fashion world, medical field, and media/entertainment field.  Something really big is going down this year and next.


Edited by sog35 - 5/31/14 at 9:01am
post #128 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

Interesting that no one has mentioned Icahn’s insider trading.

 

insider trading is if Ichan had secret knowledge about Apple that an average investor does not.

 

there is no proof that Ichan got such trade secrets from Apple.

post #129 of 137
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

insider trading is if Ichan had secret knowledge about Apple that an average investor does not.

 

there is no proof that Ichan got such trade secrets from Apple.

 

And it’s not about Apple, but still.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #130 of 137

Buyback FACTS so far.

 

Apple has purchased $45B in shares.

Average purchased share price is $485.

Current share price is now $633.

 

The stock is 30% higher than what Apple bought the stock for.

 

$45B x 30% = $13.5B

 

Apple has SAVED $13.5 billion dollars on the buyback already.

 

They can use the shares they bought back for acquisitions (they used $500,000,000 on the Beats deal) and employee stock compensation plans.  Theoretically they could buy Netflix or another company with shares.  In effect they would be buying that company at a 30% discount.  Genius move.

 

Now I wait for all the people who hated the stock buyback to apologize to Apple.  They saved shareholders $13,500,000,000 so far.

post #131 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Interesting that no one has mentioned Icahn’s insider trading.

Maybe he'll get Martha Stewarts old cell.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #132 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Apple has SAVED $13.5 billion dollars on the buyback already.

They can use the shares they bought back for acquisitions (they used $500,000,000 on the Beats deal) and employee stock compensation plans.  Theoretically they could buy Netflix or another company with shares.  In effect they would be buying that company at a 30% discount.  Genius move.

Now I wait for all the people who hated the stock buyback to apologize to Apple.  They saved shareholders $13,500,000,000 so far.

If they hadn't retired the shares, they'd have more value in volatile stock than they'd have in their non-volatile cash used to buy them. They did retire the shares though.

The buyback and other things created upwards momentum in the stock price. If the next earnings show further slowing down, traders can easy undo the gains in a matter of days. At which point you'd say what? It's all Tim's fault and he needs to go?

Let's say that Apple uses all their cash to buyback shares and retire them, what are they supposed to use to make acquisitions? They'd have nothing. This is what Icahn was suggesting and you were cheering him on. The Beats deal was done mostly with cash. A limited buyback made sense with so much cash for the purposes of making the situation better for Apple's shareholders and that's what they did.
post #133 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


If they hadn't retired the shares, they'd have more value in volatile stock than they'd have in their non-volatile cash used to buy them. They did retire the shares though.

The buyback and other things created upwards momentum in the stock price. If the next earnings show further slowing down, traders can easy undo the gains in a matter of days. At which point you'd say what? It's all Tim's fault and he needs to go?

Let's say that Apple uses all their cash to buyback shares and retire them, what are they supposed to use to make acquisitions? They'd have nothing. This is what Icahn was suggesting and you were cheering him on. The Beats deal was done mostly with cash. A limited buyback made sense with so much cash for the purposes of making the situation better for Apple's shareholders and that's what they did.

 

The stock has gone up for various reasons.  But most important is that Apple grew EPS earnings 15% in the last quarter.  The buyback helps, but we've had the buyback for over a year and stock has not taken off until earnings grew the last 2 quarters.

 

The stock will go down if earnings slows down regardless.  But the buyback lessens the drop.  

 

Apple won't run out of cash.

They have $150B now and are generating $45B-$50B each year.  We are half way through the $90B buyback and Apple cash balance has barely gone down.

post #134 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

I told you why I think Apple is still over valued. You just bought at a price I wouldn't have suggested you buy in at and your getting pissed at the messenger. You out paid, IMO, too much. Look at the P/E over the past 12 months, the P/E will guide on being over or undervalued.

 

Looks like I did not pay too much.

 

When you said Apple was overvalued it was $570.

Yesterday we hit $677 (split adjusted)

 

That's a 19% increase in share price.

 

Bottom line is you can't just look at the last 12 months of a stock's PE and ignore material events (buyback, split, new products, revenue growth)

post #135 of 137

It will be interesting to see Apple's results in a couple of weeks, especially given recent profit warning from Samsung. Having lots of market share may be good but not making much money is bad. That's Samsung's conundrum today - their flagship Galaxy S5 has not sold all that well (starting out with a two-for-one deal at some carriers). My guess is that iPhone 5s, and even the "failed" 5c, will show impressive numbers.

 

The story for this current quarter (Q3, Apple's Q4) will probably be much quieter with lots of people waiting for iPhone 6. And then we might expect a massive Christmas quarter for Apple. 

post #136 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
 

I'm into looking for high growth opportunities that are more of a sure thing, so that's why I'm paying attention to other stocks right now. :-)

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post


I told you why I think Apple is still over valued. You just bought at a price I wouldn't have suggested you buy in at and your getting pissed at the messenger. You out paid, IMO, too much. Look at the P/E over the past 12 months, the P/E will guide on being over or undervalued.

 

When DrBlank said Apple was over-valued the stock was at $570.

Now its at $713.

 

Its up 25% in 4 months since DrBlank said it was over-valued.

I guess I was proven right.

post #137 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post


Dude just admit you got it wrong.

You said $570 was too high of a price to pay. One month latter and we hit $644. You were dead wrong. I was right. Just admit it and move on.

What you do with your money is not my concern. If anyone says he can guarantee you a 15% return its a scam.

We see $700 before year end. 90% confidence,
We see $750 before year end. 75% confidence.

 

Well it hit my 90% confidence level of $700.

We still have a shot at the $750 level.   We are about 5% away from that.

 

I sold some of my shares to lock in profits at $700

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