Originally Posted by backtomac
There is nothing wrong with my numbers. They are extrapolations from numbers that Apple have provided.
The only numbers Apple provided on actual sales were the numbers after the first 30 hours, or so, of 270 thousand.
The only other numbers they gave was that the wanted to sell 10 million by the end of 2008, and then later, 1 million by the end of September.
Just so you can see how I came up with them. Jobs said he expects to sell the one millionth iPod by the end of this month. That's three months since intro. Divide 1 million by three and you get 300,000 units per month. Yes they may end up selling 1,000,512. That's not the point. These are estimates. There are 18 months of sales between the time the iPhone was introd and the end of 08 when Apple said it would sell 10 million. Multiply 300,000 by 18 and you get 5.4 million. A far cry from 10 million. For the record I think Apple still has a good chance of meeting it's sales goal and I think the iPhone is a fantastic device. But they dropped the price for a reason. Weaker than anticipated sales is my explanation.
Yes I hope and expect Apple to begin sales in other countries. The math above demonstrates the need for Apple to do so. [/quote]
You're even admitting that your numbers don't reflect reality. you can't take sales numbers in the US, and project those forward another 13 or 14 months after the market expands several times in size.
If you are going to make a projection, then you need some more information. You have to have numbers of the added population, their buying power, availability of compatible networks, interest in the phone itself, etc.
without trying to use any of that data, the numbers are meaningless!
How do you think you can project possible US sales numbers out to the end of 2008 without all of the above I Mentioned?
If the population that fits the sales profile is now going to triple, then those sales numbers are not 300 thousand, but 900 thousand.
So, once Europe is included, inlets say December, that would be 600 thousand. If Asia is included from, say March, at 900 thousand. The numbers totally change.
Ther could be more or less people in the new numbers, but they certainly be triple the US ones. The include Canada, and others that don't fil the standard Europe/Asia grouping that will be added.
As to Apple's stock hit. Well Apple was up about 20 cents before the special event when the overall market was down about 100 points. After the event is when Apple got whacked. As far as other macro economic concerns, Apple isn't immune from them but the stock has held up well. It's actually doing fine even after today. But I think you're mistaken if you think Apple's move today was just due to the trend of the market. The stock tanked after the event. Obviously somebody didn't like what was said.
I followed the market today, and it was down as the day went on. Until we see commentary, the only fair supposition is what I stated earlier Though one reason could be NBC's move to Amazon. Even an article in MacWorld is saying that could hurt Apple.