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Piper Jaffray ups Apple target to $250, sees sales of 45M iPhones in 09 - Page 2

post #41 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

A message to those posting the country's population in order to see if Apple can sell 45M iPhones through 2009:

You are going about this the wrong way.

If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.

If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.

This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.

Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?

I was simply demonstrating that the US market is not the only or the biggest in the world. There are a lot more people in the rest of the world and if iPhone can reach even a fraction of the population around the world, then 45 mil is not a big number in 2+ years.
post #42 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

I was simply demonstrating that the US market is not the only or the biggest in the world. There are a lot more people in the rest of the world and if iPhone can reach even a fraction of the population around the world, then 45 mil is not a big number in 2+ years.

I don't disagree with your feeling that Apple will sell 45M by 2009, I disagree with the way you presented it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.

I don't mean to seem harsh, but this is poor logic. An iPod Shuffle is sold in 40k+ stores and costs $79 . An iPhone costs $399 and comes with another 2k in service fees. Not really a good comparison model.

I think taking Windows Mobile/CE or Blackberry sales figures into consideration and then making reductions based on countries of availability, carrier numbers, and quantity of models might give us a better idea of what Apple can actually achieve.

iPod sales or gross population just isn't a good measure. If slanted the other way against Apple I'd think you were a MS shill. :-D
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post #43 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't disagree with your feeling that Apple will sell 45M by 2009, I disagree with the way you presented it.



I don't mean to seem harsh, but this is poor logic. An iPod Shuffle is sold in 40k+ stores and costs $79 . An iPhone costs $399 and comes with another 2k in service fees. Not really a good comparison model.

I think taking Windows Mobile/CE or Blackberry sales figures into consideration and then making reductions based on countries of availability, carrier numbers, and quantity of models might give us a better idea of what Apple can actually achieve.

iPod sales or gross population just isn't a good measure. If slanted the other way against Apple I'd think you were a MS shill. :-D

How is it poor logic? Almost everyone has/needs a cell phone. Not everyone has/needs an MP3 player. I agree my presentation was way oversimplified but I don't have time to do all the research. That is what Munster does.
post #44 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

How is it poor logic? Almost everyone has/needs a cell phone. Not everyone has/needs an MP3 player. I agree my presentation was way oversimplified but I don't have time to do all the research. That is what Munster does.

I'm with solipsism on this one.

As for not having sufficient facts to back up your stance on the debate... then please don't throw around watered down opinions that get us nowhere. Facts and figures are what make debating a constructive process. Without them, we're all just standing in a circular room looking for a corner to piss in.
post #45 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by HyteProsector View Post

Without them, we're all just standing in a circular room looking for a corner to piss in.

There are two corners in a circular room. It's those spherical rooms that have no corners.
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post #46 of 55
Quote:
I was simply demonstrating that the US market is not the only or the biggest in the world.

The reason this is more complicated than you are making it is because the worlds wealth is not evenly distributed. North America and Europe are the two largest consumer markets in the world because they have the most people with the most money. It doesn't matter if Asia has more people. They also have extremely high poverty rates. Which means there are few people in that market that can afford expensive products.

Quote:
How is it poor logic? Almost everyone has/needs a cell phone. Not everyone has/needs an MP3 player.

Its difficult to compare the iPod and iPhone in the way you have is because there are several models of the iPod sold to various price points. When they say 10 million iPods sold in a quarter most of those are shuffles ($79) and nanos ($149). The iPhone is one product at one expensive price point sold at fewer outlets.
post #47 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

There are two corners in a circular room. It's those spherical rooms that have no corners

I'll give ya due credit on that one, its a figure of speech though.
post #48 of 55
To the naysayers of 45 million sold in 2009, you aren't really making valid points.

I am literally the only person I know (over the age of 10) that doesn't have a cell phone. So that means everyone is already paying for a wireless plan.

Yes, there are hundreds of millions of people in China and India at the poverty level. There are also hundreds of millions of people that aren't. They are both gigantic potential markets for the iPhone, and don't forget Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia etc...

There will be more than one model of the iPhone, that is a guarantee. Call it the iPhone Nano for now, but it will be very affordable. Not to mention a 2nd generation of the current iPhone that will definitely have 3G, a better camera, etc.

I think 45 million is conservative. We're about two years from knowing how this will unfold, go Apple!
post #49 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't disagree with your feeling that Apple will sell 45M by 2009, I disagree with the way you presented it.

I don't mean to seem harsh, but this is poor logic. An iPod Shuffle is sold in 40k+ stores and costs $79 . An iPhone costs $399 and comes with another 2k in service fees. Not really a good comparison model.

I think taking Windows Mobile/CE or Blackberry sales figures into consideration and then making reductions based on countries of availability, carrier numbers, and quantity of models might give us a better idea of what Apple can actually achieve.

iPod sales or gross population just isn't a good measure. If slanted the other way against Apple I'd think you were a MS shill. :-D

You are assuming a lot. Who is to say Apple won't be making different models and affordable iPhone for everyone? Did Apple come out with the original iPod and sit on it for 2+ years without different models, upgrades and price points?

iPod sales are relevant because the cell phone market is much bigger. Expect a smaller, more affordable phones that will sell like hot cakes between now and 2009. Don't worry we'll all be happy when they double the 45 mil they are forecasting.
post #50 of 55
There are two other things when considering the 45 million iPhones...

1) Apple is the only cell phone manufacturer that has total control of their OS. All the other license someone else's OS for their phone. Since Apple makes the hardware and the software(sounds familiar), they will be able to innovate at a much faster pace than the rest of the industry.

2) What is to stop Apple from coming out with a low end basic iPhone without multitouch and all the extras. The shuffle doesn't have many features and is still considered an iPod. A basic phone designed by Apple would still be an iPhone and would count toward the 45 million mark.
post #51 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by one9deuce View Post

There will be more than one model of the iPhone, that is a guarantee. Call it the iPhone Nano for now, but it will be very affordable. Not to mention a 2nd generation of the current iPhone that will definitely have 3G, a better camera, etc.

I would love to see this guarantee on a second iPhone model... a link perhaps? Because as of right now, its all speculation.

What people don't understand is that Apple has a huge homefield advantage in the US. In foreign countries, they're not nearly as big. The difference is huge. There are 200 Apples stores 9 of them are in Great Britian, 7 are in Japan, 4 are in Canada and 1 is in Italy. The other 179 are right here in the US. Maybe this will shed a little light into how strong Apple is overseas.
post #52 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by HyteProsector View Post

I would love to see this guarantee on a second iPhone model... a link perhaps? Because as of right now, its all speculation.

What people don't understand is that Apple has a huge homefield advantage in the US. In foreign countries, they're not nearly as big. The difference is huge. There are 200 Apples stores 9 of them are in Great Britian, 7 are in Japan, 4 are in Canada and 1 is in Italy. The other 179 are right here in the US. Maybe this will shed a little light into how strong Apple is overseas.

Link? iPhone Nano has been rumored since the release of iPhones. Do you honestly think Apple will just offer one model of iPhones for 2 1/2 years? That's just nonsense.

Not just Apple store that will sell iPhones. They are partnering with carriers and other distribution channels for a reason. But hey, what do I know?
post #53 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by HyteProsector View Post

They're considered "Third World" countries for a reason.

That designation was not originally intended to refer to poor countries, even if many of them are. It was only to indicate alliances, 1st world was the West, Western Europe, US, Canada, etc., 2nd world was the Communist Bloc, USSR and Eastern Europe and "3rd world" are those that are unaligned with either group.
post #54 of 55
HyteProsector, you wrote: "I would love to see this guarantee on a second iPhone model... a link perhaps? Because as of right now, its all speculation."

I can't give you a link now...
but I can give you an Itoldyouso later

esp211, you're right on the money.
post #55 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

Not just Apple store that will sell iPhones. They are partnering with carriers and other distribution channels for a reason. But hey, what do I know?

Thanks, I'm aware of where I can go to purchase an iPhone. You TOTALLY missed the point here. The point is... the prevalence of Apple Stores is a direct correlation to their strength in the surrounding area.

JeffDM, yes, I'm familiar with the etymology of the words that I use, I'm also familiar with the way the connotations of these words have changed over the past 1/2 century.

Everyone's just getting petty at this point, this thread is dead anyways. I'm dropping this. I can see that no one is getting convinced either way. We'll all just have to wait until 2009...
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