Macbook Air: niche product only? - Page 3

Fixed for you.

Nope, broken by you. Success is Mac OS X reaches its full potential, which it cannot due burdened by irrational biases against all things conventional and practical. Of course as Dr. evil once said, why make billions when you can make millions.

actually I am really curious
how many units do you guys think the MBA needs to sell as a niche product to be pronounced a success. Unless some of you think it will outsell the MB

That is the question isn't it? I think Apple has sales goals, but they're smart to not make them public. Like the Mini if it doesn't meet their expectations, they can write it off as a niche machine. That being said, after devoting pretty much an entire Mac world to the Air and the AppleTV whose appeal probably isn't going to meet Apple's expectations, how well thus thing sells might be closely monitored. Apple could have deflected some of this by updating the MBPs during the keynote.

it seems to me some users seem to think the MBA will outsell the MB or reach MBP type numbers. Personally im skeptical that the market for them are this big. But I wouldn't mind to be proven wrong

I second that, most of them don't have time for a full time job for one. Unless of course you got rich parents.

We know Apple does market research. They also have information from their retail stores as to why a person did not buy a certain product.

Since they introduced the Air, I have to assume that their research shows that a significant proportion of customers coming in to look at notebooks did not find the subnotebook or light notebook that they wanted and wound up getting a PC subnotebook instead.

It was a market that Apple had no product for, AND more importantly, a market that they had a significant number of customers coming in and asking about.

So it is not expected to outsell the cheaper full-size notebooks, nor steal sales from them. It is to provide a solution to the customers who did not find what they wanted to buy.

It's not surprising that "lighter weight" would be a common request among notebook computer shoppers.

They will see how many they sell, and compare to the number of notebook customers who did not buy due to the lack of a subnotebook.

They are betting that this group of customers would prefer that the weight be reduced by omitting the optical drive and a couple of ports, rather than making the computer have a tiny screen and tiny keyboard.

The customers looking for a 3-pound subnotebook are not likely to be heavy optical drive users, or those who carry 2 extra batteries - they do not want to carry extra weight. If they didn't mind extra weight, they would save money and buy the MacBook in the first place.

The Problem is that they went little a little bit overboard on the execution and got it way too barebones. It seems ike they were more interested in blowing the Toshiba's R500 out of the water with thinness than they were making a functional notebook. The deal breaker his that you can't use Apple's external superdrive with any other devices. Give up just enough thinness for one additional USB2 port and they'd have the best ultra-portable on the planet. Apple did a great job designing the Air for the airplane or bus, but they didn't seem to quite think through what happens when you get back to the hotel room.

I would look at it in relation to it's competitors in its class. IE, how does it sell in comparison to the sony tz and toshiba portege?

If it outsells them, then its a success IMO.

Yeah...one USB port is the difference between best and worst ultraportable on the market.

Ben you just love to hate Apple while continuing to be a customer...or wanna be customer. I forget which.

The minimum spec for FiOS service is a working credit card and availability of FiOS in your area. Don't lie and spread FUD just because you disagree with some design choices.

In any case, all you need is the ethernet dongle for $29 and sometimes not even that. The DLINK router Verizon gave me was wide open and let me do config via wireless. All I needed was a machine with a web browser.

I don't think anyone (here) believes that the MBA will outsell either the MB or MBP.

Which is why Apple is outperforming Dell...and has twice the market cap with better PE and EPS.

due to the above spec power requirements used by the super drive, the one USB port can be the difference between smooth operating and a giant hassle. If you want to use that super drive you cannot use any other devices. When you're trying to conduct business that can be a huge deal and a dealbreaker for the air.


I love to hate Jobs and Ive, the guys in the software and iPod departments are the best in the business.


I don't call 8% considering the huge operating system advantage to be anything to write home about. Apple could do double that with some slight product teaks.

Yeah but see - I don't give a crap about the superdrive. Superdrive, shmuperdrive. That's the point about these subnotebooks. If you really need 4.7 GB of data, put it on a USB drive. If you really really really need to burn DVDs on a trip, then you don't need a subnotebook.

The single USB port is fine for me, as all I need is someplace to plug in a mouse. That's ALL. Everything else I can get through Back To My Mac and if I need to re-install the OS, I would have used Disk Utility to put a fresh ISO of the Leopard Install Disk on a 7 GB partition of the Air's hard drive. It's an order of magnitude faster to reinstall that way than to chug-chug-chug with a DVD.

Riiight. Because you really need to use that DVD burner you likely left in your hotel room anyway. The only gotcha with the USB port is that its too slim for many current 3G modems. Which means you need a USB cord extender or a micro hub.

Its kinda a shame that the superdrive doesn't have a hub built it but its hardly a dealbreaker unless you're looking for reasons not to buy the MBA.


Yeah well Apple without Jobs would be...oh I dunno...likely out of business by now given how horribly run it was before he came back. Had they picked Gassee, Apple would also suck right now.


Heh...name another OS with 8% desktop market share vs Windows dominance. Not BeOS, not OS2, not AmigaDOS (vaguely still alive), and not Linux (free and on all PC platforms...hey its 2008! I don't see your 20% desktop market share anywhere...).

Anyway, your assertion (double market share) is without any backing data and introducing the xMac is not a "slight product tweak".

Yeah - I smell an "xMac/homebuilder/gamer/expandability/swap-out everything/video cards are all that" philosophy here.

If that was in demand, Apple would have done it.

A) No. I'm trying to make a case for the MBA against other UPs. The market isn't going to come out of thin air. It's going to come from converting existing business users to the MBA. To do so it will have to be able to do the same things their Sonys or Toshibas do now and things like back to my Mac aren't going to work with the PC at the office. Consumer enthusiasts alone aren't going to be able to cover the development costs on this machine.

B) you're making the assertion that apple is somehow infallible and whatever they do must be the case. 'Less is more' isn't a blanket solution for all computer users.

the ethernet dongle is a bit of a ridiculous extra charge if you ask me. Clearly trying to generate more revenue. It could have just been included as an extra accessory.

No need to assume a situation that specific. All Apple is doing is providing a solution for customers who want a Mac but do not find a subnotebook in the line-up.

For some, maybe. We don't know how many Sony and Toshiba users would prefer a fullsize screen and keyboard and do not care about optical drives or swapping batteries. I've never even met anybody who carries an extra battery, and almost all of my colleagues who go to 10-12 medical conferences a year carry their laptops each time.

Oh, I think it's a pro machine, definitely. Consumers would just get the cheaper MacBook. The Air is for that portion of the market that wants a 3-pounder. Most 3-pounders aren't 13 inches, so that is where Apple is betting that their approach will gain favor.

The usual fanboi/Apple is perfect/Apple is infallible reply. I never said any such thing.

What I said was that there is logic behind these decisions, not stupidity. Once you see what the logic is, you understand. Here is what I think Apple decided:

1. There is a market among professionals for a 3-pound laptop.
2. Given a 13 inch screen vs a 10 inch screen, people who are looking for 3-pound laptops would prefer the 13 inch.

3. People who use 3-pound laptops do not use an optical drive very much, and when they do, it is usually not while away from home.

4. These professionals would like a full-size keyboard.

5. In many hotels and conference centers, there is wireless internet. For those that do not have it, a $30 adapter is no big deal to carry in your coat pocket if you are saving 2.5 pounds of weight.

6. The main reason for more than one USB port is for people who want to use the optical drive and a thumb drive at the same time. This is very rare. Even so, it can be done with a hub.

7. Potential customers in this market know that these subnotebooks cost about $1500-$2000 depending on size and weight. They also know that SSD is very expensive.

8. Our customers would most likely only take the documents they need for the conference or business meeting, not dozens of huge graphics apps or audio editing apps or multi-gigs of video. Plus, making the Air thicker and heavier to put in a 160 GB drive would not make a difference - there would still be those who wanted 250 GB, or 500 GB. Might as well go for the thin design.

The market for ultra portables is already there. Has been for a long time. Apple is just now getting in to the fray with the Macbook Air.

Stop worrying about it.

No. Not a niche product. Not a cube. It will popularize UMPCs, like Apple did with the iPod and iPhone. Remember, mp3 players and smartphones were niche products 'til Apple cam along.

Whats great is alot of the MBA features and technology will trickle down to the MB and MBP lines, while the MBA will evolve to an even thinner, crazier, more portable and powerful UMPC. We will probably see thinner MB and MBPs thanks to the MBA, and we will see even more portable MBAs with the next product cycle!

Just think about it like this: if Apple introduced the MBA as the new Macbook replacement, I'm sure there would be an uproar. But this way, Apple can ease in all this crazy new technology, spread it across its notebook lines, and then maybe phase the MBA out when the MB & MBP essentially become a MBA, only more powerful and with more options. Think about what Apple is doing with the iPod touch (clearly the future) and the iPod classic (days are numbered). It a great way to introduce a radical new product where you already have a market-share without totally shocking your current customer base to death.

just my $.02

edit:

Found a great article that debunks the MBA's would-be rivals. It shows how ludacris some comparisons to the MBA really are!
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/0...f-epic-idiocy/

Just returned from a three-day trip during which I spent several hours a day typing away on my MBP. Didn't use the optical drive once, used only one USB connecter at a time and never went more than four hours without returning to the hotel room where I had my power brick. I did, however, walk around a bit with the MBP on my back (in a great Targus bag) and will say that the almost six pounds for the machine started to get really heavy on the third day.

Repeat:
- I am a pro user
- I never need an optical drive
- I only need one USB port
- the hotel I stayed in had free wireless LAN
- I do not need FW
- I need three solid hours of battery life
- I find 5.4 pounds on my back heavy after a while

I am soooo looking forward to my MacBookAir. It should be here any day now!

Excellent article on the MBA:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2254759,00.asp

You just gave the perfect example of the intended customer for this product. I already have a MBP so I doubt I will have the luxury of this Air, but when I go to conferences that is exactly what I do. I have never used the optical drive, the only time I need the battery is at the convention lecture hall, and 4 hours is plenty, and the only thing I plug into it is the mouse. I also always have an iPod in case there are some things I need to load or unload.


All the people yammering about what it doesn't have, there are plenty of us who do not use those features. And the 3 pound weight would be fantastic for carrying it from the hotel to the conference center and back 3 times a day for a week, not to mention the airport issues.

This article says exactly what I've been thinking about the Air. Everyone will basically go to an Apple store to have a look and come away from a MB or something else. Honestly thats how i think the Air will be determined as a success.

There's a thread at DSLR where the theory is that people will be so enraptured by the "coolness" of the Air that they will buy it and then be disappointed that it is missing some features, and wind up "hating Apple."

What a messed-up analysis. Every customer will ask, "why is this one so much more expensive than the MacBook?", and when they hear the answer they will know what the differences are.

Quick check shows the Air and Time Capsule still on top of sales at the online Apple Store Japan. This is now going for two weeks.

Neither the Air nor TimeCapsule is in the top 7 at the US store.

Yah, I'm in the same boat or I'd have one ordered already.

Time Capsule is my biggest gripe, since I need it now and when I tried to order it on line was told Feb, so did, then got a shipping date of 27 February-- technically Feb, to be sure, but not worth buying a pig in a poke. I cancelled the online order and will stroll over to look at one "in the flesh" when the finally do arrive-- just like the MBA.

To : 9secondko

Thank you for your opinion. I see your point but I'm afraid I don't agree with you. Because Apple never makes a niche product.