A year ago, the few analysts who forecast share prices reaching $200 were called lunatics.
I don't know that you can say this, since AAPL was at the $200 level at the end of 2007 and was forecasted to go higher. The low at the beginning of this year represented a staggering 60% drop from that high point. The reality is that it's probably going to take two full years if not longer for AAPL to return to former price levels.
I don't know that you can say this, since AAPL was at the $200 level at the end of 2007 and was forecasted to go higher. The low at the beginning of this year represented a staggering 60% drop from that high point. The reality is that it's probably going to take two full years if not longer for AAPL to return to former price levels.
And this changes my point how, exactly? AAPL still needs to move up another 15% to be where it was nearly two years ago. That's quite a long way, and hardly assured. I'm not counting on it. October is a classic month for the markets to become jittery.
And this changes my point how, exactly? AAPL still needs to move up another 15% to be where it was nearly two years ago. That's quite a long way, and hardly assured. I'm not counting on it. October is a classic month for the markets to become jittery.
I guess I am being hopeful in my comment inferring 'closing fast now' would be far sooner than the two years you suggest. My best guess is within the next 12 months we will see a new high.
Absurd. It is RIDICULOUS to have projections going that far forward on a tech company. Considering how dramatically products change and evolve, to try to pretend that you have even the slightest *clue* what the tech market is going to look like in 2018 is just absurd. I wonder if a few years ago he had similar projections about the iPod going into 2015 that completely lacked any accounting for the rise of the smartphone/convergence device. Someone should find that, because it would be good for a laugh.
Here's what we know about the tech market in 2018: NOTHING.
It was a few short months ago (in Feb 09) that Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley advised her clients to sell AAPL @ 80. Gene Munster stuck by his target price of $225 and everyone called him crazy. Who's crazy now?
I guess I am being hopeful in my comment inferring 'closing fast now' would be far sooner than the two years you suggest. My best guess is within the next 12 months we will see a new high.
In three months it will be two years since AAPL made its all-time high of $200. This occurred in December 2007. If it's not going to be a two year span, then AAPL needs to move up another 15% in three months from now. That's a big move, on top of the doubling we've seen since the low in January. That would be nice, but as I said, I'm not counting on it.
What is wrong this analyst thinking is the same as always: Linear thinking particularly with technology.
Tech is full of disruptive innovations. The iPhone itself is a disruptive innovation in mobile computing. It has been gaining market share with consumers and software developers. The barrier holding the product from reaching the dominant position is the one carrier per market model, but that is changing. Once that happens the iPhone could get 50+% of the market. The smartphone market itself is not static, but expanding rapidly. Let us not forget that Nokia with a so so smart phone attained a 50% market share.
Once the economy picks up, the Mac growth could reach 15% from a small base... then there is the disruptive potential of the Tablet PC in education, professional apps like medicine and even general use. The iPod itself is morphing into the iPhone. However, over time, Apple could add GPS, and a camera and turn the product into a category killer.
Add it all up and the stock price could reach closer to $300... within 18 months after the iPhone is available across multiple carriers. All bets are off if we go into a Great Depression II.
It was a few short months ago (in Feb 09) that Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley advised her clients to sell AAPL @ 80. Gene Munster stuck by his target price of $225 and everyone called him crazy. Who's crazy now?
Over the years, going back to 2002, when I first began following him, I've found his stock predictions to be the most accurate, excluding unexpected recessions and the like.
What is wrong this analyst thinking is the same as always: Linear thinking particularly with technology.
Tech is full of disruptive innovations. The iPhone itself is a disruptive innovation in mobile computing. It has been gaining market share with consumers and software developers. The barrier holding the product from reaching the dominant position is the one carrier per market model, but that is changing. Once that happens the iPhone could get 50+% of the market. The smartphone market itself is not static, but expanding rapidly. Let us not forget that Nokia with a so so smart phone attained a 50% market share.
Once the economy picks up, the Mac growth could reach 15% from a small base... then there is the disruptive potential of the Tablet PC in education, professional apps like medicine and even general use. The iPod itself is morphing into the iPhone. However, over time, Apple could add GPS, and a camera and turn the product into a category killer.
Add it all up and the stock price could reach closer to $300... within 18 months after the iPhone is available across multiple carriers. All bets are off if we go into a Great Depression II.
You can only predict from what you know. No one can predict a new unexpected disruptive invention. So you can't account for it.
But that doesn't happen very often. most advances are pretty predictable for years. It's like predicting the path of a hurricane. You can predict a track from what you know, but the further in the future, the greater is the possible variation from that track. As you move forward, the variability narrows for any given moment in time. So what you are doing is making continuous corrections based on the latest information.
That doesn't mean that you should just give up and say that we don't know what will happen a week from now.
The same thing is true here. Based on what is known, predictions are made, as time goes on, those predictions are refined.
If something totally new comes about, possible but not as often as you may think, then everything is recalculated based upon that new information, and life goes on as before.
We do the same things in our own lives. How would someone buy a car for a four year payment schedule if they didn't predict they would have the means to pay for it then?
How about getting a (proper) mortgage? You're predicting 15 to 30 year track in your future.
Aw shucks - after 70% price appreciation in AAPL shares from March to the present, if Wolf prophesies correctly that means I'll have to settle for just another 30% between now and next September! Ah, well ...
I'm tellin' ya... if I had a spare 100 or 200 thousand, I'd put it all on AAPL, despite the growth curve.
Over the years, going back to 2002, when I first began following him, I've found his stock predictions to be the most accurate, excluding unexpected recessions and the like.
Munster's typically more grounded in his analyses than most, but he's made some boneheaded statements also. He's alright.
I wish I had more cash when the stock was $80 than I did, or I would have bought even more than I did buy then. I just keep buying it. It's crazy.
Luckily, the largest AAPL purchase I've ever made (during this downturn) was at $85. Same here though... a good buy can never be big enough, and a bad buy can never be small enough.
I wish I had more cash when the stock was $80 than I did, or I would have bought even more than I did buy then. I just keep buying it. It's crazy.
I chuckle when I read the levels at which you wish you purchased AAPL, not in fun but amazement.
I picked up 4000 split adjusted shares @ about $4.45 a share in the early part of 1997.
My dad once told me to only invest in companies that I believe in. My first need for a computer was for use in my printing business. I bought a IIci in 1990.... it was amazing....and I still have it. It was from that point on that I believed in this company and, since then, have realized a tremendous ROI.
If I would've dumped $50,000 in AAPL in '97, I'd be sitting on a cool couple million right now. Talk about one wishing one had extra cash........
btw...the IIci probably still boots. It's been a few years since I tried but, I believe in this company so I'll bet you it still does.
Comments
A year ago, the few analysts who forecast share prices reaching $200 were called lunatics.
I don't know that you can say this, since AAPL was at the $200 level at the end of 2007 and was forecasted to go higher. The low at the beginning of this year represented a staggering 60% drop from that high point. The reality is that it's probably going to take two full years if not longer for AAPL to return to former price levels.
I don't know that you can say this, since AAPL was at the $200 level at the end of 2007 and was forecasted to go higher. The low at the beginning of this year represented a staggering 60% drop from that high point. The reality is that it's probably going to take two full years if not longer for AAPL to return to former price levels.
Surely it is closing fast on that high level now?
Surely it is closing fast on that high level now?
And this changes my point how, exactly? AAPL still needs to move up another 15% to be where it was nearly two years ago. That's quite a long way, and hardly assured. I'm not counting on it. October is a classic month for the markets to become jittery.
And this changes my point how, exactly? AAPL still needs to move up another 15% to be where it was nearly two years ago. That's quite a long way, and hardly assured. I'm not counting on it. October is a classic month for the markets to become jittery.
I guess I am being hopeful in my comment inferring 'closing fast now' would be far sooner than the two years you suggest. My best guess is within the next 12 months we will see a new high.
Here's what we know about the tech market in 2018: NOTHING.
I guess I am being hopeful in my comment inferring 'closing fast now' would be far sooner than the two years you suggest. My best guess is within the next 12 months we will see a new high.
In three months it will be two years since AAPL made its all-time high of $200. This occurred in December 2007. If it's not going to be a two year span, then AAPL needs to move up another 15% in three months from now. That's a big move, on top of the doubling we've seen since the low in January. That would be nice, but as I said, I'm not counting on it.
Tech is full of disruptive innovations. The iPhone itself is a disruptive innovation in mobile computing. It has been gaining market share with consumers and software developers. The barrier holding the product from reaching the dominant position is the one carrier per market model, but that is changing. Once that happens the iPhone could get 50+% of the market. The smartphone market itself is not static, but expanding rapidly. Let us not forget that Nokia with a so so smart phone attained a 50% market share.
Once the economy picks up, the Mac growth could reach 15% from a small base... then there is the disruptive potential of the Tablet PC in education, professional apps like medicine and even general use. The iPod itself is morphing into the iPhone. However, over time, Apple could add GPS, and a camera and turn the product into a category killer.
Add it all up and the stock price could reach closer to $300... within 18 months after the iPhone is available across multiple carriers. All bets are off if we go into a Great Depression II.
It was a few short months ago (in Feb 09) that Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley advised her clients to sell AAPL @ 80. Gene Munster stuck by his target price of $225 and everyone called him crazy. Who's crazy now?
Over the years, going back to 2002, when I first began following him, I've found his stock predictions to be the most accurate, excluding unexpected recessions and the like.
What is wrong this analyst thinking is the same as always: Linear thinking particularly with technology.
Tech is full of disruptive innovations. The iPhone itself is a disruptive innovation in mobile computing. It has been gaining market share with consumers and software developers. The barrier holding the product from reaching the dominant position is the one carrier per market model, but that is changing. Once that happens the iPhone could get 50+% of the market. The smartphone market itself is not static, but expanding rapidly. Let us not forget that Nokia with a so so smart phone attained a 50% market share.
Once the economy picks up, the Mac growth could reach 15% from a small base... then there is the disruptive potential of the Tablet PC in education, professional apps like medicine and even general use. The iPod itself is morphing into the iPhone. However, over time, Apple could add GPS, and a camera and turn the product into a category killer.
Add it all up and the stock price could reach closer to $300... within 18 months after the iPhone is available across multiple carriers. All bets are off if we go into a Great Depression II.
You can only predict from what you know. No one can predict a new unexpected disruptive invention. So you can't account for it.
But that doesn't happen very often. most advances are pretty predictable for years. It's like predicting the path of a hurricane. You can predict a track from what you know, but the further in the future, the greater is the possible variation from that track. As you move forward, the variability narrows for any given moment in time. So what you are doing is making continuous corrections based on the latest information.
That doesn't mean that you should just give up and say that we don't know what will happen a week from now.
The same thing is true here. Based on what is known, predictions are made, as time goes on, those predictions are refined.
If something totally new comes about, possible but not as often as you may think, then everything is recalculated based upon that new information, and life goes on as before.
We do the same things in our own lives. How would someone buy a car for a four year payment schedule if they didn't predict they would have the means to pay for it then?
How about getting a (proper) mortgage? You're predicting 15 to 30 year track in your future.
You can only predict from what you know. No one can predict a new unexpected disruptive invention. So you can't account for it.
Oh no, I've been predicting chaos all my life, and I've nearly always been right.
Oh no, I've been predicting chaos all my life, and I've nearly always been right.
I'm sorry to hear that.
Maybe 3 wolves, 1 moon?
Heh. I get that reference... Clearly, I'm spending too much time on the web.
Aw shucks - after 70% price appreciation in AAPL shares from March to the present, if Wolf prophesies correctly that means I'll have to settle for just another 30% between now and next September! Ah, well ...
I'm tellin' ya... if I had a spare 100 or 200 thousand, I'd put it all on AAPL, despite the growth curve.
Over the years, going back to 2002, when I first began following him, I've found his stock predictions to be the most accurate, excluding unexpected recessions and the like.
Munster's typically more grounded in his analyses than most, but he's made some boneheaded statements also.
I'm tellin' ya... if I had a spare 100 or 200 thousand, I'd put it all on AAPL, despite the growth curve.
I wish I had more cash when the stock was $80 than I did, or I would have bought even more than I did buy then. I just keep buying it. It's crazy.
Munster's typically more grounded in his analyses than most, but he's made some boneheaded statement before also.
Who hasn't?
It's not important if some mistakes are made, its the overall long term situation, and he's been pretty good.
I wish I had more cash when the stock was $80 than I did, or I would have bought even more than I did buy then. I just keep buying it. It's crazy.
Luckily, the largest AAPL purchase I've ever made (during this downturn) was at $85. Same here though... a good buy can never be big enough, and a bad buy can never be small enough.
I wish I had more cash when the stock was $80 than I did, or I would have bought even more than I did buy then. I just keep buying it. It's crazy.
I chuckle when I read the levels at which you wish you purchased AAPL, not in fun but amazement.
I picked up 4000 split adjusted shares @ about $4.45 a share in the early part of 1997.
My dad once told me to only invest in companies that I believe in. My first need for a computer was for use in my printing business. I bought a IIci in 1990.... it was amazing....and I still have it. It was from that point on that I believed in this company and, since then, have realized a tremendous ROI.
If I would've dumped $50,000 in AAPL in '97, I'd be sitting on a cool couple million right now. Talk about one wishing one had extra cash........
btw...the IIci probably still boots. It's been a few years since I tried but, I believe in this company so I'll bet you it still does.