Big holiday season predicted to be just the beginning for Apple

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Apple is expected to have exceptional sales this holiday season to cap off an excellent 2009, but a new report predicts that 2010 will be even better based on anticipated iPhone sales.



In his latest note to investors, analyst Robert Cihra with Caris & Company has predicted that 2009 iPhone sales will be up 94 percent from 2008, with a total of 26.6 million handsets sold during the calendar year. But for 2010, he expects Apple to sell a total of 36.6 million iPhones.



Even with that growth, Apple would only command about 16 percent of the worldwide smartphone market share, and less than 3 percent of the overall cellphone market.



"Awfully conservative, we think," Cihra wrote, "for what is unquestionably now the most top-of-mind phone/software/delivery platform across its entire industry from handset competitors through carriers."



The report predicts that when Apple reports it September quarter earnings on Oct. 19, the iPhone will account for 25 percent of reported revenues, or 38 percent of revenue non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). More specifically, the iPhone would represent virtually all of Apple's year-over-year growth.



Cihra said he expects iPod growth to be slower, despite the debut of new hardware in September. However, he continues to see the iPod touch as an "ace up Apple's sleeve."



The research note also predicts that Mac sales in the concluded September quarter will be strong, with 2.8 million shipments. However, given rumors of hardware refreshes and new models for the MacBook, iMac and Mac mini lines, Cihra believes the December quarter will see a boost in sales. He expects a new plastic MacBook to have a lower entry price than today's single $999 offering.



"Make no mistake," he said, "Apple intends to keep gaining PC share."







Apple has warned its retailers that the iMac and Mac mini will see supply constraints in coming weeks, fueling speculation that new hardware is imminent. Sources have indicated to AppleInsider that the company is ready and waiting with a redesigned iMac line.



Apple is also expected to retain and redesign its low-cost polycarbonate MacBook at a more affordable price and multiple new models.



Caris & Company has upped its price target to $235 for AAPL stock, and has reiterated its recommendation to buy.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 60
    basically more money for me. Yes I am shareholder :-)
  • Reply 2 of 60
    Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast. \
  • Reply 3 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by souliisoul View Post


    basically more money for me. Yes I am shareholder :-)



    But $ only realized unless you sell - no?
  • Reply 4 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast. \



    And Windows 7 hasn't even been released nor reviewed yet- right?
  • Reply 5 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    But $ only realized unless you sell - no?



    Not when you can borrow against your underlying asset value (e.g., buying stock on margin).
  • Reply 6 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    And Windows 7 hasn't even been released nor reviewed yet- right?



    Yes, that.



    Two, the tablet/pad/whatever (on which many of the '10 numbers are premised) is still vaporware. We have to see what it is, what it does, how it is priced, how many people are interested, how it performs in the wild, and so forth. I feel like there could be a speculative bubble on AAPL coming around the Tablet. Indeed, the perception that such a price runup could happen will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.



    Three, I am worried about re-establishing the "Apple is SJ and SJ is Apple" association. It brings back possible volatility in AAPL stock price, just when the market seemed to have started to shrug off the issue.
  • Reply 7 of 60
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    ? what to do what to do?



    My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises.



    At the moment she is getting fed up with me ? so what should I say other than blaming Appleinsider
  • Reply 8 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr O View Post


    … what to do what to do?



    My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises.



    At the moment she is getting fed up with me … so what should I say other than blaming Appleinsider



    Blame me.



    Seriously take it back and wait 3 weeks.
  • Reply 9 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Not when you can borrow against your underlying asset value (e.g., buying stock on margin).



    Totally agreed and additionally if you bought them over 10 years ago at $18-19 per share, simply because you loved the company, products and wanted to be part of company. Actually I took a very large amount of my bonus and was told I was very stupid and MS was the way to go.



    I am very glad, I am stupid and others who were advising me are so intelligent. Sometimes you just have to go with your heart or gut instinct.



    I will not sell until I retired, which i over 20 years away for my dream trip.
  • Reply 10 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by souliisoul View Post


    Totally agreed and additionally if you bought them over 10 years ago at $18-19 per share, simply because you loved the company, products and wanted to be part of company. Actually I took a very large amount of my bonus and was told I was very stupid and MS was the way to go.



    I am very glad, I am stupid and others who were advising me are so intelligent. Sometimes you just have to go with your heart or gut instinct.



    I will not sell until I retired, which i over 20 years away for my dream trip.



    May it split many times over during that period for you.
  • Reply 11 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    BTW- when is the iMac event to be announced? It's almost November- I saw Christmas trees in Home Depot today!
  • Reply 12 of 60
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,198member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Apple is also expected to retain and redesign its low-cost polycarbonate MacBook at a more affordable price and multiple new models.



    or not. folks seem to be forgetting that the laptops just had a refresh and price drop in June. Maybe they will do a blanket $100 price drop on all the models. maybe they will even add the anti-glare as an online custom item for the 13 inch pro models.



    but maybe they will do nothing with the laptops. After all, we haven't heard rumors of those being in short supply to the resellers.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast. \



    yep. too many folks are assuming that Apple is going to follow everyone else with cut down prices, blu-ray etc.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Three, I am worried about re-establishing the "Apple is SJ and SJ is Apple" association. It brings back possible volatility in AAPL stock price, just when the market seemed to have started to shrug off the issue.



    Jobs and Apple have done pretty well over the last year of exposing the masses to the other faces so I don't think that that is as much of a worry as before.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr O View Post


    My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises



    they have a 14 day return period. if she's going to return it and wait and see you are correct the she might as well go ahead and do it rather than risk forgetting and having them tell her that they won't make an exception cause she was two weeks over.



    however if you are wrong, be prepared to some serious smack down action.
  • Reply 13 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post




    yep. too many folks are assuming that Apple is going to follow everyone else with cut down prices, blu-ray etc.




    You still think Apple is not to go Blu?
  • Reply 14 of 60
    bregaladbregalad Posts: 816member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    You still think Apple is not to go Blu?



    Steve Jobs sees optical media the same way he saw floppy disks in 1997. I'd be surprised to see a BD player in a Mac. Then again, after years of dissing FM radio, Apple put a receiver in the iPod nano so anything's possible.



    I'm not convinced there will be a notebook update this month. The last update wasn't long ago and Apple typically likes to go into strong shopping seasons with old models so they can ensure good supply. They know introducing a new model causes a sales spike all by itself and would rather see that spike in a different quarter than one that already has a seasonal spike.
  • Reply 15 of 60
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    May it split many times over during that period for you.



    Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."
  • Reply 16 of 60
    bobrikbobrik Posts: 36member
    (found answer on Wikipedia)
  • Reply 17 of 60
    bucetabuceta Posts: 141member
    Lets hope this holiday season will spell the beginning of the end for the blackberry. Also lets hope it will squish the Android back out of existence.
  • Reply 18 of 60
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,748member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."



    Yeah, it is amazing to me how many people don't get that...



    OTOH, splits usually happen after the price has run up, so many splits might be an indication that price has gone up steadily over the period. It wouldn't be the cause, but it might be a good indicator...
  • Reply 19 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."



    Don't you have then more options available? Sell, etc?
  • Reply 20 of 60
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bregalad View Post


    Steve Jobs sees optical media the same way he saw floppy disks in 1997. I'd be surprised to see a BD player in a Mac. Then again, after years of dissing FM radio, Apple put a receiver in the iPod nano so anything's possible.



    How does anyone know what Steve Jobs sees anymore than what Madonna sees?

    Who knew he saw the Touch as a gaming device before he laid that claim on buyers? At what point will he stop "seeing" the AppleTv as a "hobby"?

    The list is endless.

    Bottomline- no one knows what lurks.....
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