Multi-phone Android platform seen overtaking iPhone by 2012

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Due to its presence on multiple manufacturers' devices, Android will overtake Apple's iPhone in terms of market share by 2012, an analyst has predicted.



Ken Dulaney, vice president and distinguished analyst with research firm Gartner, said he believes the iPhone will maintain its No. 3 overall smartphone position. But the current second-place platform from Research in Motion will lose more than 7 percent total market share, while he expects Android to grow in leaps and bounds and take that spot. Symbian OS from Nokia is expected to stay on top.



The forecast is part of a presentation Dulaney is scheduled to give at Gartner's Symposium ITxpo, which runs Oct. 18 through 22 in Orlando. The data is based on an estimated 522 million smartphones to be shipped during the period.



"All players in smartphones should see good growth at the expense of the next category down, feature phones which are in turn moving down into the category that used to be called basic phones," Dulaney told AppleInsider.



Apple currently has a 10.8 percent share of the smartphone market, which is predicted to grow to 13.7 percent by 2012, with sales of 71.5 million units. And even though Symbian and Nokia are predicted to lose 10 percent of the market, the platform's massive lead keeps it well ahead of competitors with 39 percent in 2012.



Dulaney said he believes Android will surpass the iPhone in market share because many handset makers are "betting their future" on Google's Android platform, while Apple is only one company.



"Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs," Dulaney said. "They have the number 2 OEM, Samsung, and strong players like LG, Motorola, HTC and now Dell. There are others in the works. Apple will still likely have the top of mind in the marketplace with probably the most purely defined consumer product."







Dulaney's forecast is lower than an August prediction by Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets. He believes that total iPhone shipments will hit 82.1 million in 2012, good for a 16.3 percent share of the smartphone market.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 144
    stokessdstokessd Posts: 103member
    Much like "plays for sure" was on multiple MP3 players and we all saw how well that turned out. Now android has a lot more going for it than plays for sure ever did, and I really hope is continues to do well, but the it's on multiple platforms doesn't guarantee success.



    Sheldon
  • Reply 2 of 144
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member
    I guess the assumption is Apple's iPhone development will remain flat?



    Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs



    We're actually seeing why that *is not* a recipe for success.
  • Reply 3 of 144
    wingswings Posts: 261member
    Dan has an excellent piece about this fantasy story here:

    http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/1...r-in-2012-why/

    He makes a whole lot of sense, explaining why Gartner's shill income is about to evaporate from WinMo and has to look elsewhere for FUD dollars.
  • Reply 4 of 144
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,022member
    I just love these analysis.... I can not say who will win or lose at this point, but the OS is not what is going to drive smartphone sales, it all the apps that make a smartphone usable.



    So will google and its many partners be able to put together apps that work equally well across the board has yet to be seen. I suspect there will be problems, maybe not technically problem with the apps working, but infighting on who gets what profits from those sales and what store is allow to sell them. Think about this, say you bought a app form say a Verizon app store for a Motorola android phone and then you move to t-mobile with a LG andriod phone will you be able to take the app with you and have it work on that phone.



    I think you see where I am going... this seem to be destine for failure as everyone grabs for the money.



    Apple make it simple and that is the model to follow...
  • Reply 5 of 144
    irelandireland Posts: 17,771member
    I would have said a year ago that Android would be ahead of iPhone OS by 2012, but I no longer think this is true. The iPhone has become far to pervasive at this stage, and it's to well setup and easy a choice with iTunes and all the apps etc.



    It will be more like iPhone OS 15%, Android 12%.
  • Reply 6 of 144
    Android is still evolving. There are early adopters releasing devices like the HTC Hero, but version 1.6 just came out. Give it a year or so and it will shine. It will never have the gaming capability of the iPhone - no thanks to the Dalvik Java VM on which it runs, but you never know as it is still too early.



    It is good that Apple cannot rest on their laurels. If they don't innovate they perish.
  • Reply 7 of 144
    Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.
  • Reply 8 of 144
    jasenj1jasenj1 Posts: 922member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post


    Think about this, say you bought a app form say a verizon app store for a motorola and android phone and then you move to t-mobile with a LG andriod phone will you be able to take the app with you and have it work on that phone.



    I think you see where I am going... this seem to be destine for failure as everyone grabs for the money.



    Exactly. Verizon is notorious for crippling their phones unless you pay them to unlock the features that are already on board. I expect the different carriers will lock down their phones with different DRM "features" to make sure only their apps run on their phones. Enabling this DRM checking will be a headache to developers who will have deal with different processes and levels of intrusiveness for all the carriers. In the end, devs - and users- will prefer Apple and its "one devil" model vs "lots of demons".



    I expect the Android platform will be reasonably successful, but Apple's seamless, total-package approach, will dominate the splintered Android ecosystem.



    - Jasen.
  • Reply 9 of 144
    irelandireland Posts: 17,771member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mbarriault View Post


    Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.



    Did you ever travel outside American
  • Reply 10 of 144
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    I guess the assumption is Apple's iPhone development will remain flat?



    Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs



    We're actually seeing why that *is not* a recipe for success.



    Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?

    Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now. Funny how no posts are factoring in AT&T's badwill.
  • Reply 11 of 144
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    I would have said a year ago that Android would be ahead of iPhone OS by 2012, but I no longer think this is true. The iPhone has become far to pervasive at this stage, and it's to well setup and easy a choice with iTunes and all the apps etc.



    It will be more like iPhone OS 15%, Android 12%.



    cell phone contracts are 2 years and most people get a new phone when they renew a contract. it's not like an expensive Mac you keep and treasure for years.



    I think iPhone is still better overall, but manufacturers are doing some good things on Android that will cause apple to allow background processing at the very minimum or face being a niche player again
  • Reply 12 of 144
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    So now when does a lower stock forcast pop up by these fickle analysts?
  • Reply 13 of 144
    ivan.rnn01ivan.rnn01 Posts: 1,822member
    In unit sales? May be. In revenue? You must be kidding me.
  • Reply 14 of 144
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post


    I think iPhone is still better overall, but manufacturers are doing some good things on Android that will cause apple to allow background processing at the very minimum or face being a niche player again



    I would be cool to back swipe to get to my previous app without having to close, launch, close, relaunch, over and over, etc, etc. iPhone is just not there yet. That seems more important than all these superfluous peripherals.

    It's getting a little tiresome.
  • Reply 15 of 144
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post


    In unit sales? May be. In revenue? You must be kidding me.



    What will happen next June if iPhone remains only on AT&T and all these new phones and OS are offered elsewhere? Will people stay? 4.0 will need to be a major upgrade.
  • Reply 16 of 144
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    Motorola is doing some nice things with Android where different apps can talk to each other and trade data. and almost every phone will play aac files so you don't have to worry about migrating your music to another format
  • Reply 17 of 144
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?

    Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now.



    The RAZR and the iPhone are about the same as night and day. The iPhone is a growth platform, a multifunction miniature computer with capabilities still untapped. The user experience is uniform, the OS functions the same on each iPhone. We might see other models, but it'll be veresions based on the same device - there won't be a Windows Mobile situation.



    Why not compare it to Windows Mobile then, which is now languishing in single-digit land and still heading south.



    I think what you meant is other models of the iPhone, but based on the same OS/hardware template. Is that what you were getting at?
  • Reply 18 of 144
    shadowshadow Posts: 373member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?

    Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now.



    iPhone managed to draw crowds three years in a row when introducing an incremental upgrade to the previous model. This is unprecedented. Apple will pull out a next gen device at some point, this is a no-brainer. The next gen device may not be perfect, but "stale" argument is busted from both sides:

    - even one-only devise is still success for more than 2 years (3 revisions)

    - there will be new device from Apple



    Apple will also enter the lower-end segment at some point.

    Apple will not stay with AT&T forever, and AT&T might improve
  • Reply 19 of 144
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    What will happen next June if iPhone remains only on AT&T and all these new phones and OS are offered elsewhere? Will people stay? 4.0 will need to be a major upgrade.



    Are you assuming iPhone development will . . . not happen?



    Are you assuming by June the competition will have cleaned up its act? More phones on the market doesn't mean they'll be better than the iPhone.



    I think it's safe to assume Apple has a development roadmap in place that will be very difficult for the competittion to follow. Apple has, after all, succeeded with the iPhone in the conspicuous absence of any real competition to drive them. Frankly, I'm more worried about everyone else than I am about Apple.
  • Reply 20 of 144
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    The RAZR and the iPhone are about the same as night and day. The iPhone is a growth platform, a multifunction miniature computer with capabilities still untapped. The user experience is uniform, the OS functions the same on each iPhone. We might see other models, but it'll be veresions based on the same device - there won't be a Windows Mobile situation.



    Why not compare it to Windows Mobile then, which is now languishing in single-digit land and still heading south.



    I think what you meant is other models of the iPhone, but based on the same OS/hardware template. Is that what you were getting at?



    Ok- I was talking about the physical device. The general public knows nothing about OS, platforms, etc. They see a device and how it looks- and its exactly the same after 3 years and they say "old school" especially when you have like 5 different Blackberry models soon to be 7 , etc. Apple should have more than one device- that's all I'm saying- be it made by them or whoever.
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