In the past many people just like yourself told me I was crazy for predicting aapl to exceed msft. There's a big fat "I TOLD YA SO" with all your names on it coming soon!
Not very soon.
Stick the figures in a spreadsheet
AAPL - 202*900,000,680 = 181.8 Bn
MSFT - 29*8,880,000,000 = 257.52 Bn
Apple is 70% of MSs size
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Analysts
APPL - $275 (247 Bn)
MSFT - $36 (319 Bn)
Apple is 77% of MSs size
Current Growth
Apple - $320 (288 Bn)
MSFT - $51 (452 Bn)
Apple is 63% of MSs size
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
Doesn't work. I just nuked my ignore list because it doesn't really matter when a gazillion people respond to him. So why not join in the "fun" to berate him as is deserved?
Some people like that, being berated and all, I got a friend like that. Comes in handy if I need to vent.
$400 for AAPL is peanuts. I invested in AAPL back at $45 when I came to the conclusion that Steve Jobs and his trusty lieutenants are in a generational battle to totally dominate the tech sector and they have more than an even chance of succeeding. This is the same kind of protracted battle that Toyota waged against GM, ultimately demolishing the clowns in Detroit. MSFT is just as inept and unwieldy as GM and Apple is probably more visionary than Toyota. I continue to hold on to AAPL not because of any short term expectations about how iPhone will fare or what the iTablet will be like. They'll do fine all right, but what I look forward to are future Apple products that none of us could even conceive of right now but will appear quite obvious and indispensable when Apple releases them.
$400 is peanuts. I'm looking forward to $2000 (in current dollars) 15-20 years from now when it's time to retire and cash those AAPL shares in.
Some people like that, being berated and all, I got a friend like that. Comes in handy if I need to vent.
if teckstud is a masochist that is his issue. i find his negative crap frustrating and distracting. id rather not feel the need to 'vent' at him or anyone else and i dont think im alone here.
if teckstud is a masochist that is his issue. i find his negative crap frustrating and distracting. id rather not feel the need to 'vent' at him or anyone else and i dont think im alone here.
Why are you paying so much attention anyway? That's the question.
I care about the glossy screen issue, but does Apple and the rest of the computer industry give a flying rats ass?
No. Because there is no such thing as a flying rats ass.
Understand now?
Don't try to bend the spoon, that's impossible. Just realize there is no spoon.
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Hang on. The forecasts of future price are one-year forecasts, so keep that in mind. Also, they are all over the map, so you should consider the average, which for AAPL currently is $232 and for MSFT $32. If these forecasts come true (and good luck with that) it would within a year make AAPL worth $209b and MSFT $281b on the markets. Assuming that market cap is of any real importance, which it isn't, predicting when AAPL will exceed MSFT is mainly a matter of projecting the two company's growth rates.
I know what you're referring to here and, er... no, 8 out of 10 malware applications that were manually executed by a user in administration mode still affected Win7.
Even Windows cannot account for stupid users.
But it seems a lot of stupid users run Windows, why is that?
Is it that the 10% market share of OS X equates to the percentile of the population with above average intelligence?
If MSFT market cap decreases while APPL increases they might be equal at even a lower figure and sooner.
Being tech companies MSFT and AAPL tend to fluctuate about the same with the market and both companies are making plenty of profits each quarter to maintain their share price, even if MSFT isn?t competing well with AAPL in their direct product areas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69
Let's face it the important thing is that Apple survives as a company that can continue to innovate and move tech in new directions. Overtaking MS doesn't help with that at all. In fact it can lead to Wall Street putting a lot of pressure on a company.
A ravenous Wall Street has ruined more than a few companies. If focus is taken off products and R&D then Apple gets screwed. Even a CEO of the decade would have trouble dealling with to many demands from the markets.
I?m worried what will happen when AAPL does become the most profitable CE company.
Doesn't work. I just nuked my ignore list because it doesn't really matter when a gazillion people respond to him. So why not join in the "fun" to berate him as is deserved?
Newp. Pointless to add him if people are going to keep replying to his asinine comments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoolook
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
MSFT is not going anywhere and despite dropping in revenue and profit YoY they are still netting more than double what AAPL nets per quarter and being mainly a software company have much higher percentage of profit, which makes their revenue several times higher than Apple?s.
Despite that, AAPL?s growth can?t be denied and we?ve seen AAPL?s cash reserves grow while MSFT?s have decreased. These large cash reserves help to stabilize a stock and reinforce shareholders.
No- because those ads are flash. Until wither Apple buys Adobe or Adobe play nice, how would it make money off flash when it discourages internet flash use.
What about mobile search? The iPhone has done very well without flash so far and is unlikely to adopt it.
Really. Much of what Apple is achieving has nothing to do with MS. Apple is breaking new ground, but MS never has. The MS business model was to take an amateur's inspired but poorly supported idea, and give it the business support to make it successful. Apple's real success is having the smarts in both areas - and Steve Jobs' business acumen runs rings around MS's yesterday-men.
The exciting thing for Apple investors is that Apple is achieving such impressive profits, and profit growth from such relatively tiny market share. MS and Nokia have market dominance, based entirely on old products - so they have nowhere to go. Apple has taken years to build the springboard for future growth, and it's only just starting to pay off.
MS is still working with a 80% profit margin, which is in the present environment actually a millstone around their neck - even a good new product, if they could find one, starts off at a loss or break-even, and will drag down overall financial performance. All hypothetical though, because MS has been looking for the next big thing for years, and failed miserably.
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Analysts
APPL - $275 (247 Bn)
MSFT - $36 (319 Bn)
Apple is 77% of MSs size
Current Growth
Apple - $320 (288 Bn)
MSFT - $51 (452 Bn)
Apple is 63% of MSs size
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
Thank you. I'm glad someone ignored the "We Hate Teckstud" theme and actually looked at the numbers. It is a little simplistic to think that Apples market cap will grow and Microsoft's won't. As the recession comes to an end and people get confident to move back into stocks, Microsoft will see their share price rise, such that it won't be enough for Apple to beat a market cap of ~$260bn.
However, I don't want to suggest that the situation for Apple is not impressive and I could see them pass Microsoft in the near term, though suspect 2 years is a little optimistic.
We're really starting to see the difference between a company that has successfully diversified and one that has not. 20 years ago Microsoft made an OS and Office. Now in reality, that's still all they do. XBox is not exactly a cash cow, Zune is a disaster, their on-line operations fall way short of the competition.
Contrast with Apple who 20 years ago had a somewhat successful computer division, but have gone for and succeeded in music players, on-line sales of music and video, mobile phones, etc. etc.
If Apple can continue to successfully build on their product portfolio, and Microsoft continue to be only an OS and Office software company, it's only a matter of time until Apple take the top spot.
Being tech companies MSFT and AAPL tend to fluctuate about the same with the market and both companies are making plenty of profits each quarter to maintain their share price, even if MSFT isn?t competing well with AAPL in their direct product areas.
Actually, AAPL fluctuates a lot more than MSFT. There is a concept called beta, which measures a stock's movement relative to the market as a whole. According to Value Line the beta for MSFT is .80 and that of AAPL is 1.1. A beta of 1.0 means the stock will fluctuate at the same rate as the whole market.
$400 for AAPL is peanuts. I invested in AAPL back at $45 when I came to the conclusion that Steve Jobs and his trusty lieutenants are in a generational battle to totally dominate the tech sector and they have more than an even chance of succeeding. This is the same kind of protracted battle that Toyota waged against GM, ultimately demolishing the clowns in Detroit. MSFT is just as inept and unwieldy as GM and Apple is probably more visionary than Toyota. I continue to hold on to AAPL not because of any short term expectations about how iPhone will fare or what the iTablet will be like. They'll do fine all right, but what I look forward to are future Apple products that none of us could even conceive of right now but will appear quite obvious and indispensable when Apple releases them.
$400 is peanuts. I'm looking forward to $2000 (in current dollars) 15-20 years from now when it's time to retire and cash those AAPL shares in.
The problem with Detroit is the UAW and always has been.
$75 a hour and 95% pay if not working, full medical and dental and if you don't agree to their demands, they strike first then the mafia comes to break their legs if that doesn't work.
The upper management of GM had offices behind bullet proof glass doors and windows with armed security and a separate garage and elevator system. They lived in fear from estranged low IQ blue collar workers with a UAW inspired grudge that some college guy in a white shirt and tie in the ivory tower is making more money than him for doing nothing but answering the telephone.
And the way the GM cars sucked for so long allowing Toyota to get a leg up was because there was no control by management to hire and fire to weed out the incompetents to improve quality. So finally after years of disappointing sales from half tightened nuts and missing pieces of new cars, GM and others gave in to the unions demands.
That resulted in cars costing much more as they are actually worth (I got a new Mazda pickup for $5000 in the '80's now it's $22,000 for the same type vehicle )
So the UAW is to blame, not that all unions are bad, some are good and keep their workers trained and work with the company, but the UAW is out of control. Especially when the same worker in a Toyota plant in South Carolina gets $35-$45 a hour.
The only reason GM was bailed out by the Fed was to support the UAW and the military industrial complex. Essentially the domestic car makers became a national defense resource and "too big to fail"
I'm ashamed about the outcome, but our government is run not by what is right, but who can afford to pay for control. Right now it's the Chinese, if they pull the plug on the cash, this country is going down hard to dwarf the Great Depression.
Sorry got way off topic.
Back to topic, AAPL is not a good stock to hold long term in my opinion because of the fact that Apple's gear is premium and there are less and less people being able to afford it. Also China is sucking up the worlds resources, making everything cost more to make.
If MSFT market cap decreases while APPL increases they might be equal at even a lower figure and sooner.
Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market. Also Microsoft is going to report a huge Q4 and a very good 2010 if estimates on Windows 7 is correct.
With 10.2% unemployment in the US and the housing market still in hell, a bad holiday season about to hit the stock market is one big bubble thats going to burst. Only thing keeping the market going now is banks can borrow and 0% and reinvest making a ton right now.
Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market.
Good thing it doesn't have to in today's market. These are one year forecasts we're talking about, so whatever number you pick or decide to believe, it's still for the market at the end of 2010, not today.
We all know the economic conditions stink, btw. Still, Apple rode out the worst in remarkable style and I haven't heard anyone say that the economy in 2010 will not be an improvement over 2009.
Comments
You really don get it do you.
In the past many people just like yourself told me I was crazy for predicting aapl to exceed msft. There's a big fat "I TOLD YA SO" with all your names on it coming soon!
Not very soon.
Stick the figures in a spreadsheet
AAPL - 202*900,000,680 = 181.8 Bn
MSFT - 29*8,880,000,000 = 257.52 Bn
Apple is 70% of MSs size
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Analysts
APPL - $275 (247 Bn)
MSFT - $36 (319 Bn)
Apple is 77% of MSs size
Current Growth
Apple - $320 (288 Bn)
MSFT - $51 (452 Bn)
Apple is 63% of MSs size
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
Doesn't work. I just nuked my ignore list because it doesn't really matter when a gazillion people respond to him. So why not join in the "fun" to berate him as is deserved?
Some people like that, being berated and all, I got a friend like that. Comes in handy if I need to vent.
Or I haven't wrote my last post very well because my bad English or you haven't understood very well.
Oh I understand perfectly that's it's your bad English.
$400 is peanuts. I'm looking forward to $2000 (in current dollars) 15-20 years from now when it's time to retire and cash those AAPL shares in.
Some people like that, being berated and all, I got a friend like that. Comes in handy if I need to vent.
if teckstud is a masochist that is his issue. i find his negative crap frustrating and distracting. id rather not feel the need to 'vent' at him or anyone else and i dont think im alone here.
if teckstud is a masochist that is his issue. i find his negative crap frustrating and distracting. id rather not feel the need to 'vent' at him or anyone else and i dont think im alone here.
Why are you paying so much attention anyway? That's the question.
I care about the glossy screen issue, but does Apple and the rest of the computer industry give a flying rats ass?
No. Because there is no such thing as a flying rats ass.
Understand now?
Don't try to bend the spoon, that's impossible. Just realize there is no spoon.
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Hang on. The forecasts of future price are one-year forecasts, so keep that in mind. Also, they are all over the map, so you should consider the average, which for AAPL currently is $232 and for MSFT $32. If these forecasts come true (and good luck with that) it would within a year make AAPL worth $209b and MSFT $281b on the markets. Assuming that market cap is of any real importance, which it isn't, predicting when AAPL will exceed MSFT is mainly a matter of projecting the two company's growth rates.
I know what you're referring to here and, er... no, 8 out of 10 malware applications that were manually executed by a user in administration mode still affected Win7.
Even Windows cannot account for stupid users.
But it seems a lot of stupid users run Windows, why is that?
Is it that the 10% market share of OS X equates to the percentile of the population with above average intelligence?
Something to think about.
If MSFT market cap decreases while APPL increases they might be equal at even a lower figure and sooner.
Being tech companies MSFT and AAPL tend to fluctuate about the same with the market and both companies are making plenty of profits each quarter to maintain their share price, even if MSFT isn?t competing well with AAPL in their direct product areas.
Let's face it the important thing is that Apple survives as a company that can continue to innovate and move tech in new directions. Overtaking MS doesn't help with that at all. In fact it can lead to Wall Street putting a lot of pressure on a company.
A ravenous Wall Street has ruined more than a few companies. If focus is taken off products and R&D then Apple gets screwed. Even a CEO of the decade would have trouble dealling with to many demands from the markets.
I?m worried what will happen when AAPL does become the most profitable CE company.
You forgot the link.
2012
I love disaster movies!
Doesn't work. I just nuked my ignore list because it doesn't really matter when a gazillion people respond to him. So why not join in the "fun" to berate him as is deserved?
Newp. Pointless to add him if people are going to keep replying to his asinine comments.
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
MSFT is not going anywhere and despite dropping in revenue and profit YoY they are still netting more than double what AAPL nets per quarter and being mainly a software company have much higher percentage of profit, which makes their revenue several times higher than Apple?s.
Despite that, AAPL?s growth can?t be denied and we?ve seen AAPL?s cash reserves grow while MSFT?s have decreased. These large cash reserves help to stabilize a stock and reinforce shareholders.
No- because those ads are flash. Until wither Apple buys Adobe or Adobe play nice, how would it make money off flash when it discourages internet flash use.
What about mobile search? The iPhone has done very well without flash so far and is unlikely to adopt it.
What about mobile search? The iPhone has done very well without flash so far and is unlikely to adopt it.
Safari on the iPhone has enough security issues as it without adding Adobe's insecure crap on top of it.
And that's no troll neither.
The exciting thing for Apple investors is that Apple is achieving such impressive profits, and profit growth from such relatively tiny market share. MS and Nokia have market dominance, based entirely on old products - so they have nowhere to go. Apple has taken years to build the springboard for future growth, and it's only just starting to pay off.
MS is still working with a 80% profit margin, which is in the present environment actually a millstone around their neck - even a good new product, if they could find one, starts off at a loss or break-even, and will drag down overall financial performance. All hypothetical though, because MS has been looking for the next big thing for years, and failed miserably.
Safari on the iPhone has enough security issues as it without adding Adobe's insecure crap on top of it.
What mobile Safari security issues?
Really. Much of what Apple is achieving has nothing to do with MS.
True, the areas where MS makes their huge profits Apple doesn?t even play in.
Not very soon.
Stick the figures in a spreadsheet
AAPL - 202*900,000,680 = 181.8 Bn
MSFT - 29*8,880,000,000 = 257.52 Bn
Apple is 70% of MSs size
Apple has been predicted @$250 before, and not got close, but le's say they make it. MSFT has been climbing from a low of $15 this year, and Apple from a low of $85. If we assume each continues growing according to analysts predictions OR according to current gowth, here's what will happen.
Analysts
APPL - $275 (247 Bn)
MSFT - $36 (319 Bn)
Apple is 77% of MSs size
Current Growth
Apple - $320 (288 Bn)
MSFT - $51 (452 Bn)
Apple is 63% of MSs size
Obviously this is all pure speculation, and if they increased at the same % rate, it would be a different story again. Apple looks close to MS, because people like buying shares of growing companies, but although MSFT has not been a fashionable stock, they're a very strong company and shouldn't be underestimated.
Thank you. I'm glad someone ignored the "We Hate Teckstud" theme and actually looked at the numbers. It is a little simplistic to think that Apples market cap will grow and Microsoft's won't. As the recession comes to an end and people get confident to move back into stocks, Microsoft will see their share price rise, such that it won't be enough for Apple to beat a market cap of ~$260bn.
However, I don't want to suggest that the situation for Apple is not impressive and I could see them pass Microsoft in the near term, though suspect 2 years is a little optimistic.
We're really starting to see the difference between a company that has successfully diversified and one that has not. 20 years ago Microsoft made an OS and Office. Now in reality, that's still all they do. XBox is not exactly a cash cow, Zune is a disaster, their on-line operations fall way short of the competition.
Contrast with Apple who 20 years ago had a somewhat successful computer division, but have gone for and succeeded in music players, on-line sales of music and video, mobile phones, etc. etc.
If Apple can continue to successfully build on their product portfolio, and Microsoft continue to be only an OS and Office software company, it's only a matter of time until Apple take the top spot.
Being tech companies MSFT and AAPL tend to fluctuate about the same with the market and both companies are making plenty of profits each quarter to maintain their share price, even if MSFT isn?t competing well with AAPL in their direct product areas.
Actually, AAPL fluctuates a lot more than MSFT. There is a concept called beta, which measures a stock's movement relative to the market as a whole. According to Value Line the beta for MSFT is .80 and that of AAPL is 1.1. A beta of 1.0 means the stock will fluctuate at the same rate as the whole market.
$400 for AAPL is peanuts. I invested in AAPL back at $45 when I came to the conclusion that Steve Jobs and his trusty lieutenants are in a generational battle to totally dominate the tech sector and they have more than an even chance of succeeding. This is the same kind of protracted battle that Toyota waged against GM, ultimately demolishing the clowns in Detroit. MSFT is just as inept and unwieldy as GM and Apple is probably more visionary than Toyota. I continue to hold on to AAPL not because of any short term expectations about how iPhone will fare or what the iTablet will be like. They'll do fine all right, but what I look forward to are future Apple products that none of us could even conceive of right now but will appear quite obvious and indispensable when Apple releases them.
$400 is peanuts. I'm looking forward to $2000 (in current dollars) 15-20 years from now when it's time to retire and cash those AAPL shares in.
The problem with Detroit is the UAW and always has been.
$75 a hour and 95% pay if not working, full medical and dental and if you don't agree to their demands, they strike first then the mafia comes to break their legs if that doesn't work.
The upper management of GM had offices behind bullet proof glass doors and windows with armed security and a separate garage and elevator system. They lived in fear from estranged low IQ blue collar workers with a UAW inspired grudge that some college guy in a white shirt and tie in the ivory tower is making more money than him for doing nothing but answering the telephone.
And the way the GM cars sucked for so long allowing Toyota to get a leg up was because there was no control by management to hire and fire to weed out the incompetents to improve quality. So finally after years of disappointing sales from half tightened nuts and missing pieces of new cars, GM and others gave in to the unions demands.
That resulted in cars costing much more as they are actually worth (I got a new Mazda pickup for $5000 in the '80's now it's $22,000 for the same type vehicle )
So the UAW is to blame, not that all unions are bad, some are good and keep their workers trained and work with the company, but the UAW is out of control. Especially when the same worker in a Toyota plant in South Carolina gets $35-$45 a hour.
The only reason GM was bailed out by the Fed was to support the UAW and the military industrial complex. Essentially the domestic car makers became a national defense resource and "too big to fail"
I'm ashamed about the outcome, but our government is run not by what is right, but who can afford to pay for control. Right now it's the Chinese, if they pull the plug on the cash, this country is going down hard to dwarf the Great Depression.
Sorry got way off topic.
Back to topic, AAPL is not a good stock to hold long term in my opinion because of the fact that Apple's gear is premium and there are less and less people being able to afford it. Also China is sucking up the worlds resources, making everything cost more to make.
What mobile Safari security issues?
EDIT: Got it, close enough anyway.
http://www.cenzic.com/downloads/Cenz...Q1-Q2-2009.pdf
If MSFT market cap decreases while APPL increases they might be equal at even a lower figure and sooner.
Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market. Also Microsoft is going to report a huge Q4 and a very good 2010 if estimates on Windows 7 is correct.
With 10.2% unemployment in the US and the housing market still in hell, a bad holiday season about to hit the stock market is one big bubble thats going to burst. Only thing keeping the market going now is banks can borrow and 0% and reinvest making a ton right now.
This "news" is as best wishful thinking.
Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market.
Good thing it doesn't have to in today's market. These are one year forecasts we're talking about, so whatever number you pick or decide to believe, it's still for the market at the end of 2010, not today.
We all know the economic conditions stink, btw. Still, Apple rode out the worst in remarkable style and I haven't heard anyone say that the economy in 2010 will not be an improvement over 2009.