Apple 'now visible in Microsoft's rearview mirror' as value swells

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  • Reply 61 of 100
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market. Also Microsoft is going to report a huge Q4 and a very good 2010 if estimates on Windows 7 is correct.



    With 10.2% unemployment in the US and the housing market still in hell, a bad holiday season about to hit the stock market is one big bubble thats going to burst. Only thing keeping the market going now is banks can borrow and 0% and reinvest making a ton right now.



    This "news" is as best wishful thinking.



    I think it?s likely you?ve been saying that Apple can?t or won?t be able to achieve this goal or that goal for a long time now, yet they keep beating the street.



    I bet you would have stated 'this "news" is as best wishful thinking? if in 1997 I said Steve Jobs could save Apple or if in 2006 the iTunes Store could be the largest music retailer or if I asked you earlier this year if Apple would get to $200 a share or if Apple good be valued more than Google or if Apple could make a viable smartphone or if the iPhone would account for ⅓ of the entire handset profits or if the App Store could hit 100k apps or whatever other accomplishment Apple has achieved in the face of naysayers.
  • Reply 62 of 100
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    In the battle of the platforms, company value means squat!



    Percent of actual users and machines out there is the true yardstick.
  • Reply 63 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    In the battle of the platforms, company value means squat!



    Percent of actual users and machines out there is the true yardstick.



    In the battle for value, platforms mean squat.



    Wealth created is the true yardstick.
  • Reply 64 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post


    But it seems a lot of stupid users run Windows, why is that?



    Is it that the 10% market share of OS X equates to the percentile of the population with above average intelligence?



    Something to think about.



    I think it's pretty well known that Mac users are more affluent and more intelligent than the average computer user (they're also more likely to be liberal as well as a bunch of other vaguely interesting demographic facts). That's probably almost entirely down to Macs being more expensive and being generally used by creating professions, which aren't usually full of idiots... (er... I realised I created a trap for myself there!)



    Regardless, you'd think (or hope) that Windows users would not execute random programs in Admin mode... and in reality, too many do. Windows 7 is more resistant to accidental execution of malicious apps, but the statistic you referred to (released recently) was specifically when a user over-rode all internal controls.



    Same would happen on a Mac, if such Malware existed.
  • Reply 65 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market. Also Microsoft is going to report a huge Q4 and a very good 2010 if estimates on Windows 7 is correct.



    With 10.2% unemployment in the US and the housing market still in hell, a bad holiday season about to hit the stock market is one big bubble thats going to burst. Only thing keeping the market going now is banks can borrow and 0% and reinvest making a ton right now.



    This "news" is as best wishful thinking.



    Does anyone know if Apple would be more likely to hit $280 per share if they did say a 5:1 stock split, such that they would actually need $56 per "new" share?



    I seem to remember reading once that there were some funds that would only invest in stocks with a single share value below a certain amount, but I may be wrong. Would be interested to hear the views of someone who knows about these things.
  • Reply 66 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Do you really think Apple is going to hit 280 a share? That just isn't going to happen in todays market. Also Microsoft is going to report a huge Q4 and a very good 2010 if estimates on Windows 7 is correct.



    With 10.2% unemployment in the US and the housing market still in hell, a bad holiday season about to hit the stock market is one big bubble thats going to burst. Only thing keeping the market going now is banks can borrow and 0% and reinvest making a ton right now.



    This "news" is as best wishful thinking.





    I agree with you, we are about to get hit with another series of economic blows to the head.



    I'm going to call it "Pink Slip Christmas" because the first of every year right after the holidays the companies re-balance their sheets for the next year and that results in layoffs until the next summer driving season. Various companies are already announcing huge layoffs, before the holidays as to not to have pay bonuses and prevent the newly unemployed from spending too much this holiday season.



    More than 50% of a lot of companies sales come during the holidays, so after that, they won't need you until spring.



    Banks are holding a lot of foreclosed property, and not even evicting some of the previous owners because it would devalue the neighborhood and their chances of selling. The rate of bank failures are increasing. The FDIC is running in the red, no sh*t, but it says it has enough money, getting it from the Treasury obviously.



    There are so many people underwater on their properties, even when they have gone through the restructuring, they are going to realize it's not worth holding onto a property for the next 30 years and hope to break even.



    The so called actual unemployment rate, including people who don't qualify for unemployment or have quit looking for work, is closer to 17.5% than the 10.2% rate we hear. Certain minorities are suffering as much as double the unemployment than whites and asians. Plus they got hit the hardest with the sub-prime bullsh*t, being conned into buying houses they couldn't afford by a well meaning government that believed owning a house is a right.



    I expect a huge jump in the unemployment rate late this year or early next year and you can thank the government and folks in California for gambling in the sub-prime market.



    Read the book "The Sellout" tells it all, even going back to the CRA mistakes made by Clinton and the first MBS from the now defunct Bear Sterns that started it all.
  • Reply 67 of 100
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cubert View Post


    In the battle of the platforms, company value means squat!



    Percent of actual users and machines out there is the true yardstick.



    Apple seems to be okay on both the number of HW devices it sells per model and the number of unit running iPhone OS.
  • Reply 68 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post


    Does anyone know if Apple would be more likely to hit $280 per share if they did say a 5:1 stock split, such that they would actually need $56 per "new" share?



    I seem to remember reading once that there were some funds that would only invest in stocks with a single share value below a certain amount, but I may be wrong. Would be interested to hear the views of someone who knows about these things.





    If you wanted a stock split, you should have jumped on the Berkshire Hathaway B split.



    Might not be a bad deal still, he just bought a railroad that mainly delivers coal.



    He knows something. Clean coal? Super high oil prices from a fallen dollar?



    Gold $3000 a ounce?
  • Reply 69 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Good thing it doesn't have to in today's market. These are one year forecasts we're talking about, so whatever number you pick or decide to believe, it's still for the market at the end of 2010, not today.



    We all know the economic conditions stink, btw. Still, Apple rode out the worst in remarkable style and I haven't heard anyone say that the economy in 2010 will not be an improvement over 2009.



    AAPL has a 52 week low of 78.20 A year from now it can just as easily be there then at 280.00 so trying to predict the market a year from now is a total joke. Apple is doing great now but 7 months ago it was around 85 a share and seven months from now depending on the ecomony it could be back to 80.00 a share.



    I'm not saying its going to be but no one can predict the market a year out.
  • Reply 70 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Zoolook View Post


    Same would happen on a Mac, if such Malware existed.



    Such malware does exist and most Mac users use the default Admin setup so this little gem will do wonders to program files.



    http://www.stfj.net/art/2009/loselose/



    Next is a program like this that alters program files requiring a Admin password to gain root access.



    Bingo! Root!





    OS X's saving grace is Unix, and that's wearing rather thin.
  • Reply 71 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think it?s likely you?ve been saying that Apple can?t or won?t be able to achieve this goal or that goal for a long time now, yet they keep beating the street.



    I bet you would have stated 'this "news" is as best wishful thinking? if in 1997 I said Steve Jobs could save Apple or if in 2006 the iTunes Store could be the largest music retailer or if I asked you earlier this year if Apple would get to $200 a share or if Apple good be valued more than Google or if Apple could make a viable smartphone or if the iPhone would account for ⅓ of the entire handset profits or if the App Store could hit 100k apps or whatever other accomplishment Apple has achieved in the face of naysayers.



    You have a short memory seeing Apple stock has a 52 week low of 78.20. There are so many bad indicators in the market right now that Apple could do great as a company yet tank if the entire market takes a hit. This isnt about Apple as a company its about the economy as a whole.



    Stock could go well about 200 but it could also go well below 100 again.
  • Reply 72 of 100
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    You have a short memory seeing Apple stock has a 52 week low of 78.20. There are so many bad indicators in the market right now that Apple could do great as a company yet tank if the entire market takes a hit. This isnt about Apple as a company its about the economy as a whole.



    Stock could go well about 200 but it could also go well below 100 again.



    You bringing up what the stock?s 52 week low proves the point that it could also hit $280. I know you?re all about doom and gloom but this isn?t posters on a forum making these predictions, it?s stock analysts. We?ve hit a recession, then we?ve seen an up turn. Of course it will drop again but then it will go back up. If you focus on only one direction you will never see how anything truly moves.
  • Reply 73 of 100
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    Can you blame the Apple fanboys? They've been right all along.



    Amazing how minors are always right in their own eyes...
  • Reply 74 of 100
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    No I understand the whole "premium ", Lexus, BMW analogy or what have you. But why must we contantly compare them then if they are so different in their goals. Why are Apple fans so stuck in this "vengeance is mine" mindset with MS and it's profits and its share. It's so ridiculous!!!!!!



    Inferiority complex.
  • Reply 75 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post


    The problem with Detroit is the UAW and always has been.



    $75 a hour and 95% pay if not working, full medical and dental and if you don't agree to their demands, they strike first then the mafia comes to break their legs if that doesn't work.



    The upper management of GM had offices behind bullet proof glass doors and windows with armed security and a separate garage and elevator system. They lived in fear from estranged low IQ blue collar workers with a UAW inspired grudge that some college guy in a white shirt and tie in the ivory tower is making more money than him for doing nothing but answering the telephone.



    And the way the GM cars sucked for so long allowing Toyota to get a leg up was because there was no control by management to hire and fire to weed out the incompetents to improve quality. So finally after years of disappointing sales from half tightened nuts and missing pieces of new cars, GM and others gave in to the unions demands.



    That resulted in cars costing much more as they are actually worth (I got a new Mazda pickup for $5000 in the '80's now it's $22,000 for the same type vehicle )



    So the UAW is to blame, not that all unions are bad, some are good and keep their workers trained and work with the company, but the UAW is out of control. Especially when the same worker in a Toyota plant in South Carolina gets $35-$45 a hour.



    The only reason GM was bailed out by the Fed was to support the UAW and the military industrial complex. Essentially the domestic car makers became a national defense resource and "too big to fail"



    I'm ashamed about the outcome, but our government is run not by what is right, but who can afford to pay for control. Right now it's the Chinese, if they pull the plug on the cash, this country is going down hard to dwarf the Great Depression.



    Sorry got way off topic.



    Back to topic, AAPL is not a good stock to hold long term in my opinion because of the fact that Apple's gear is premium and there are less and less people being able to afford it. Also China is sucking up the worlds resources, making everything cost more to make.



    I enjoyed your off topic digression. Do you think that aapl will have issues with the saturation of the computer market too in the neare future? I mean how many more people need to buy a computer? And what more incentives can you give to people for buying a new computer since for the vast majority since the c2d from intel and what with the vast hd capacities are pretty much covered (by far), whilst a few years back you would always expect some tangible perfomance bump. How can you convince most people that 8 gb in ram isn't enough so they should get the 12 gb new model, when a few years back these numbers concerned hds!! Of course branching out with a tablet, and bringing a media center to the table possibly, plus the iphone platform where there's still room for improvement and hence incentive to buy will not only sustain apple but will have more and more of a halo effect in mac sales.



    Of course no one has thus far adressed how much the recent price rise has been a product of stock manipulation. And I think it has.





    Anyway, I have some money on the side and I d love to invest in apple stock. But I am a novice in investment and I wouldn't want to lose my money...Anyone suggest that I BUY?\



    My two main concerns are Steve's health and the financial crisis, the latter because it seems the us and the world has not and isn't prepare to bring about the structural changes in the business sector that would prevent a future melt down. We bailed the bankers out but they still have the power to blackmail for that money without compromising to downsize and break up where needed or to keep to increase their capital wrt the speculation. Of course there's the issue of what to do, if you make them keep more capital you are safeguarding against another serious crisis, but you are also depriving the economy of that money for growth. Of course speculation (which was what this guys were doing) is not growth...anyway I veered off topic, and in an area I have very rudimentary knowledge of.
  • Reply 76 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    You bringing up what the stock?s 52 week low proves the point that it could also hit $280. I know you?re all about doom and gloom but this isn?t posters on a forum making these predictions, it?s stock analysts. We?ve hit a recession, then we?ve seen an up turn. Of course it will drop again but then it will go back up. If you focus on only one direction you will never see how anything truly moves.



    Its not about gloom and doom its about reality. Talk to senior that lost 90% of their 401k and ask them what the think about the market. You have to be alot more then the glass is half full kind of person to think Apple will hit 280.00 when it was predicted a long time ago it would hit 250.00 and then dropped below 80.



    Anyone that looks at all the economic indicators and think the market is a great bet simply loves to gamble with their money.



    The financial industry is whats keeping the market inflated right now and that isn't going to last forever. Unemployment is bad and going to get worse, housing market is bad and not going to get better anytime soon. The government is trying to pass a 1.2 trillion dollar healthcare bill we can't afford. Yeah the market is going to be in great shape.
  • Reply 77 of 100
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post


    Thank you. I'm glad someone ignored the "We Hate Teckstud" theme and actually looked at the numbers. It is a little simplistic to think that Apples market cap will grow and Microsoft's won't. As the recession comes to an end and people get confident to move back into stocks, Microsoft will see their share price rise, such that it won't be enough for Apple to beat a market cap of ~$260bn.



    However, I don't want to suggest that the situation for Apple is not impressive and I could see them pass Microsoft in the near term, though suspect 2 years is a little optimistic.



    We're really starting to see the difference between a company that has successfully diversified and one that has not. 20 years ago Microsoft made an OS and Office. Now in reality, that's still all they do. XBox is not exactly a cash cow, Zune is a disaster, their on-line operations fall way short of the competition.



    Contrast with Apple who 20 years ago had a somewhat successful computer division, but have gone for and succeeded in music players, on-line sales of music and video, mobile phones, etc. etc.



    If Apple can continue to successfully build on their product portfolio, and Microsoft continue to be only an OS and Office software company, it's only a matter of time until Apple take the top spot.



    Great- a nice unbiased thoughtful posting for a change.
  • Reply 78 of 100
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    Its not about gloom and doom its about reality. Talk to senior that lost 90% of their 401k and ask them what the think about the market.



    Then they are idiots. There is no way a diversified portfolio could possibly be down 90% from this time last year. Even at the market?s low point that is not possible without really trying. Monty Brewster would have had a hard time losing 90% of his $30, though he did only have 30 days to do it.
  • Reply 79 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    The financial industry is whats keeping the market inflated right now and that isn't going to last forever. Unemployment is bad and going to get worse, housing market is bad and not going to get better anytime soon. The government is trying to pass a 1.2 trillion dollar healthcare bill we can't afford. Yeah the market is going to be in great shape.



    Can you enlighten me on how the financial industry is keeping the market inflated? I can't understand the dynamics in that.
  • Reply 80 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post


    Can you enlighten me on how the financial industry is keeping the market inflated? I can't understand the dynamics in that.



    While you and I don't get this rate the Fed allows banks to borrow at near 0% and what is happening instead of the banks opening up borrowing they are taking the money they borrow at 0% and investing it in the market and making huge returns.



    Wouldn't it be great if you and I could borrow at 0% and play around with investing?



    The entire bailout was too opening up lending and that just hasn't happened, the banks instead have sucked the money into a black hole and of course the government didnt even bother to track it.
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