Piper: 75% chance of Apple Jan. event, 50% likelihood of tablet
As rumors of Apple's forthcoming tablet device pick up steam once again, one Wall Street analyst sees a 50-50 chance of the device being unveiled in January.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a new note to investors Wednesday afternoon that he expects the long-rumored tablet device to ship by the end of March. Current models for AAPL stock do not include the potential additional revenue the company would receive in 2010 from releasing the device. In other words, he said, shares are currently undervalued.
"We expect the multiple to increase as tablet hype builds and Street models begin to include tablet estimates," Munster said. "While the tablet is not currently in our model, we believe Apple could sell about 1.4M units if the tablet shipped in March, adding 2% to revenue."
Those numbers are based on an average selling price of $600. Speculation on the unannounced product's price has ranged from "shockingly" inexpensive to as much as $2,000. Munster also believes the device would run a new version of the iPhone OS that would run a new category of applications, as well as existing software available from the App Store.
"We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook," he said. "Rather it would focus more on apps, entertainment content (from the iTunes Store), and Web surfing."
Munster isn't entirely confident that the device would be unveiled in January, however. Earlier Wednesday, a previous report suggested the hardware could be introduced by Apple at the start of 2010, and mass production would begin as soon as February.
In addition, Boy Genius Report said Wednesday it has heard from a "connected" source that Apple will be announced in January. That person allegedly said they are confident that the device will come in a 7-inch size -- smaller than the 10-inch screen that has been widely reported. The smaller model reportedly could be in addition to the 10-inch model.
"Would we bet the farm on this?" the report said. "No, but they’ve been amazingly accurate for us in the past and as usual, Apple rumors seem to get more interesting."
But Munster said he believes there is a 75 percent chance of an Apple event in January. It could also be used to introduce a new iPod touch with video, which sources have told AppleInsider has been told remains in Apple's pipeline. The note to investors also said that such an event could be used to introduce a new Apple TV that supports a subscription service.
Numerous reports this week have claimed that Apple is in talks with CBS and Disney in an attempt to offer a subscription plan for TV shows. Sources have said that both companies are currently considering an offer from Apple that would provide them $2 to $4 per month for a subscriber to a broadcast network like CBS or ABC, and $1 to $2 per month for subscribers to a basic cable network.
Munster has long believed that Apple is pursuing a subscription service for iTunes. He also believes the company could add DVR capabilities to the Apple TV, and, at some point in the future, release a connected television set.
Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, and has kept its price target of $277.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a new note to investors Wednesday afternoon that he expects the long-rumored tablet device to ship by the end of March. Current models for AAPL stock do not include the potential additional revenue the company would receive in 2010 from releasing the device. In other words, he said, shares are currently undervalued.
"We expect the multiple to increase as tablet hype builds and Street models begin to include tablet estimates," Munster said. "While the tablet is not currently in our model, we believe Apple could sell about 1.4M units if the tablet shipped in March, adding 2% to revenue."
Those numbers are based on an average selling price of $600. Speculation on the unannounced product's price has ranged from "shockingly" inexpensive to as much as $2,000. Munster also believes the device would run a new version of the iPhone OS that would run a new category of applications, as well as existing software available from the App Store.
"We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook," he said. "Rather it would focus more on apps, entertainment content (from the iTunes Store), and Web surfing."
Munster isn't entirely confident that the device would be unveiled in January, however. Earlier Wednesday, a previous report suggested the hardware could be introduced by Apple at the start of 2010, and mass production would begin as soon as February.
In addition, Boy Genius Report said Wednesday it has heard from a "connected" source that Apple will be announced in January. That person allegedly said they are confident that the device will come in a 7-inch size -- smaller than the 10-inch screen that has been widely reported. The smaller model reportedly could be in addition to the 10-inch model.
"Would we bet the farm on this?" the report said. "No, but they’ve been amazingly accurate for us in the past and as usual, Apple rumors seem to get more interesting."
But Munster said he believes there is a 75 percent chance of an Apple event in January. It could also be used to introduce a new iPod touch with video, which sources have told AppleInsider has been told remains in Apple's pipeline. The note to investors also said that such an event could be used to introduce a new Apple TV that supports a subscription service.
Numerous reports this week have claimed that Apple is in talks with CBS and Disney in an attempt to offer a subscription plan for TV shows. Sources have said that both companies are currently considering an offer from Apple that would provide them $2 to $4 per month for a subscriber to a broadcast network like CBS or ABC, and $1 to $2 per month for subscribers to a basic cable network.
Munster has long believed that Apple is pursuing a subscription service for iTunes. He also believes the company could add DVR capabilities to the Apple TV, and, at some point in the future, release a connected television set.
Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, and has kept its price target of $277.
Comments
A 25% chance Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs!
Until of course it actually gets announced in which case the odds increase to 100%.
What again is the appeal of the tablet form factor? I've been trying to understand it but I haven't grasped it yet. Oh well, I'm still looking forward to the excitement this product will generate and I'm going to try very hard not to want one.
Things to consider:
The Apple A/V dock features the old Apple remote, the current generation of iPhones/iPod Touch can probably support 720p video quite easily if Apple allowed it.
Apple TV is in dire need of an update (as usual) and 1080p hardware is readily available.
The 27' iMac screams for a blu ray drive.
iTunes subscription rumors are everywhere
Predictions:
New A/V dock with HDMI, supporting up to 720p playback. iPhone 3GS/iPod Touch firmware updated to allow playback of 720p files (mid product cycle sales boost).
Apple TV updated to support 1080p video (one could wish for apps and an API too, who knows).
Build to order blu ray drive options for new macs (would require an OS update).
iTunes/iTunes Store updated with 1080p video and some form of subscription service (both updates would probably be limited to a few select movies/tv show shows at first)
That in a nutshell is my vision of "Apple goes HD", the first iteration of an annual video event Apple holds in Jan/Feb. It makes a lot of sense to promote video as sales slow after Christmas and the winter months are a prime time for people to stay in the warmth of their own home and watch a movie. An Apple Tablet could easily fit in here and I would expect that future events would headline the Apple TV and the tablet, but given how much focus there is on magazines on the tablet and the sheer feature list it could have, I think it will probably have its own event this year. Another possibility would be updated Macbook pros with the new i7 chips, possibly with 16:9 screens (not that I want that, but they could go that way and it would fit the theme).
Of course I am probably completely out to lunch, but it is fun to dream.
Thanks!
The IPHONE developers that have been called in are working on IPHONE apps, new games to run on the new "all-about-gaming" hardware.
I bet it's not about the tablet at all.
"Piper: 75% chance of Apple Jan. event, 50% likelihood of tablet"... sounds like a weather report!
A 25% chance Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs!
I can confidently forecast a 5% chance of raining frogs.
The Boy Genius Report is not a credible source of rumors. Please toss that site into the same bucket as Enderle and Gartner.
Thanks!
While no site is 100% credible, BG have broken numerous stories over the last two+ years.
My man Gene Munster! Some may mock him but GM is seldom wrong.
how can you EVER be wrong when you say there's a 50% chance of something happening?
...of course, 53% of statistics are made up on the spot.
I'm still thinking Apple is going to start a new annual event much like the iPod event in the fall, except for video. This will probably be the year that Apple takes video as seriously as it does music.
Things to consider:
The Apple A/V dock features the old Apple remote, the current generation of iPhones/iPod Touch can probably support 720p video quite easily if Apple allowed it.
Apple TV is in dire need of an update (as usual) and 1080p hardware is readily available.
The 27' iMac screams for a blu ray drive.
iTunes subscription rumors are everywhere
Predictions:
New A/V dock with HDMI, supporting up to 720p playback. iPhone 3GS/iPod Touch firmware updated to allow playback of 720p files (mid product cycle sales boost).
Apple TV updated to support 1080p video (one could wish for apps and an API too, who knows).
Build to order blu ray drive options for new macs (would require an OS update).
iTunes/iTunes Store updated with 1080p video and some form of subscription service (both updates would probably be limited to a few select movies/tv show shows at first)
That in a nutshell is my vision of "Apple goes HD", the first iteration of an annual video event Apple holds in Jan/Feb. It makes a lot of sense to promote video as sales slow after Christmas and the winter months are a prime time for people to stay in the warmth of their own home and watch a movie. An Apple Tablet could easily fit in here and I would expect that future events would headline the Apple TV and the tablet, but given how much focus there is on magazines on the tablet and the sheer feature list it could have, I think it will probably have its own event this year. Another possibility would be updated Macbook pros with the new i7 chips, possibly with 16:9 screens (not that I want that, but they could go that way and it would fit the theme).
Of course I am probably completely out to lunch, but it is fun to dream.
My guess is that like the original unveiling of the iPhone (due to the FCC approval process), this first introduction of the phantom tablet must be done a couple of months before the actual product ships (March). In the future, I could imagine Apple moving to the following release schedule for its consumer electronics:
March: video
June: telephony
September: audio
I would guess mini DisplayPort would be the video-out interface for the new device(s).
I'm thinking this thing would ship on March 9th.
While no site is 100% credible, BG have broken numerous stories over the last two+ years.
Their track record is poor (my opinion obviously). Most recent: that Black Friday sale with deep discounting? Ahahahahaha!!!!!!
Oh well, freedom of press, right?
My guess is that like the original unveiling of the iPhone (due to the FCC approval process), this first introduction of the phantom tablet must be done a couple of months before the actual product ships (March). In the future, I could imagine Apple moving to the following release schedule for its consumer electronics:
March: video
June: telephony
September: audio
I would guess mini DisplayPort would be the video-out interface for the new device(s).
I'm thinking this thing would ship on March 9th.
I don't know if they will go with mini display port for devices intended to connect to a TV. The Apple TV does have HDMI. Who knows, they could do something un-Apple like and include two ports
I agree that the tablet will likely be unveiled months before it is available to the public due to the FCC approval process if it has a 3G (or similar) chip.
yes there's also a 50 / 50 chance the world will end tomorrow. what kind of forecast is that?
It isn't a 50/50 chance (there is a chance, but it isn't 50%) and he was more creative in his numbers.
Edit: Well I guess he wasn't more creative with the tablet.