Also noted was Apple TV, which while being rumored to face discontinuation as an experimental "hobby" that the company never managed to achieve blockbuster sales with, is still being updated and expanded. Over the past few months, Apple released the Apple TV 3.0 update and added support for iTunes LP and Extras.
Did I miss something? What rumour of discontinuation? I've seen speculation & lots of people who don't like the current AppleTV... but no rumours.
I suspect the next AppleTV will have the same chip that'll be in the tablet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57
Apple TV clearly needs a shake-up. The TV revolution is not happening fast enough for Apple in that sector and they should bite the bullet; add BluRay and tuners or give up and come back in a couple of years.
I was surprised AppleTV couldn't play AVIs, though I see their reasoning. But it was a similar (mp3) move which helped iPods until online sales were setup well.
Adding a tuner could be interesting... in that it could be used as leverage to get the networks more involved.
ie: (as an example)
1) an "unknown" show gets treated like any other TiVo recording
2) a "known" show is marked for precise start/finish times (and ad times), can only skim ads manually (not skip), and can have the ads replaced with customised interactive ads - OR pay 50c to watch ad-free. Or buy via download.
A tuner also prefers HD recordings AND takes the pressure off the internet until things improve.
But tuner or BluRay - Apple seems to see it as not "true to their vision of the future".
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagamer34
If anything, Apple should really just try and position the Mac Mini as the entertainment PC of the home. Stick in a BR drive and update Front Row to match the AppleTV 3.0 interface (plus capabilities).
Build "AppleTV" software as a parallel product to iTunes. Run AppleTV SOFTWARE on your Mac, PC, iPhone, iPod Touch, Tablet OR dedicated hardware.
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers
They really need to follow Netflix and buy the entire back catalog of movies for streaming. Apple could afford to do this for free or low cost and I think it would really drive AppleTV adoption.
That's a good idea I hadn't thought of (and haven't seen mentioned). If they're doing a deal with a few TV networks why not add a huge back catalog of movies for a small subscription fee?
Why streaming though? Doesn't the current download (and watch immediately) model work well enough?
Did I miss something? What rumour of discontinuation? I've seen speculation & lots of people who don't like the current AppleTV... but no rumours.
I think it was a lot like AI?s rumours of the Mac Mini being discoed. Since they?ve both been passed up for HW updates people assumed Apple was just selling out of supply before dropping it. In both case, Apple can?t let go of the product category, even much more so with the AppleTV.
I don?t understand why optical drives in a PC can?t go away until optical cables come to your home. There is no 1:1 correlation between them because they both have optical in the name.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that some people still do not have broadband available in the home? Wouldn't those people be more likely to still use physical media for software and such? Trying to download a 400 meg software update over dialup would be a craptastic waste of time.
When I look at the space occupied by the Superdrive on my macbook I can't help but think that the space could be better used for a bigger battery and another Hdd. I suspect that Apple would love to eliminate the Superdrive from all their portables. They could save money, and make a thinner notebook. I suspect that the only reason they have not is because the customer backlash at this point might be to great. Firewire anyone?
I believe that as costs come down on sdhc cards they could become as common as dvd's and then we will see the elimination of Superdrives on portables.
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
Sounds like what people said when the iPhone came out back in 2007.
However I agree that a physical keyboard will keep a place for still a long while in what one might call "professional" computing, there is no way you can make a keynote, write a document in pages or work in PS on such a device, but that is not what it is meant for.
Like the iPhone, the people targeted with this thing will be those who just want a computer that works to look at photos, browse the internet, write a mail sometimes and read a book. For the rest there will still be a MacBook Pro.
Most people don't care how powerful their machine is and what crazy stuff they can do with it.
I realised this when I met a person who was just happy with a vista laptop running on 512 MB with a 2 GHz Celeron machine and told me that she was happy with it, as it did everything she wanted just fine.
For a media extender appliance it looked to be doing very well, but that whole market was new and hadn?t taken off. With TiVo, PS3, XBOX 360, and other appliances getting decent to good media extender features the AppleTV and other standalone media extenders are definitely now lackluster and limiting in many ways.
I could live with the limited codec support but the hardware definitely needs a refresh. I was waiting for a hardware refresh to buy one because the current models inability to play 1080 content
is to limiting for me. I an now thinking that a WD TV Live would be a good fit for my bedroom tv, 125 dollars and plays 1080 Hd content in pretty much any format.
IMHO I think that if Apple waits to much longer to do a major upgrade to atv it risks becoming a permanent also ran.
I think you are a bit off on that prediction. One problem is that many people do not have access to fast broadband. Another thing to consider is that some of the fastest broadband pipes (in the U.S.A) are provided by companies that also sell content. Comcast is constantly complaining about "bandwidth hogs" and are trying to push monthly data caps. 25-50 Gb a month might seem like a lot but that would be eaten up very quickly with even lower rez hd content. On the other hand they are thrilled to let you be a "bandwidth hog" when you are buying and downloading shows from them. These companies do not want their broadband services to become a dumb utility service for itunes, netflix et al because they do not get a cut of that revenue. And I believe that as streaming and downloading shows becomes more prevalent you will see a showdown between broadband providers and services like itunes and netflix. Net result IMHO will be that we the consumer will loose because of higher fees, bandwidth caps and even lose the ability to connect to certain services. That is why I believe that blu-ray and other physical forms of media distribution will be around for a good portion of this decade.
I agree with this.... as much as I want everything streaming and downloadable.... Comcast puts a 250gb limit here where I live. If everyone was streaming HD content all the time they would go over this pretty easily. I see optical lasting another 5 years minimum. Technology moves along very fast, but until I can put a 2T SD card in my hand it's just a dream. Yeah I would love to have every movie I own on an itty bitty card and backed up 2-3 times over... but how far off is that? 5-10 years? In the meantime Apple's TV offering is behind the curve, I am really waiting for them to produce something worth buying. I'm hoping the next HW update to Apple TV will be it. I want to be able to plug in my 3.5" dinosaur magnetic drives with my DVD and HD content already on it and have everything where I can find it. Searchable would be nice.... and why is a 1hr 30min 2.6 GB "HD" movie $19.99 on itunes?? The same BR disc is $19.99 on Amazon.com.... (G-Force).
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that some people still do not have broadband available in the home? Wouldn't those people be more likely to still use physical media for software and such? Trying to download a 400 meg software update over dialup would be a craptastic waste of time.
When I look at the space occupied by the Superdrive on my macbook I can't help but think that the space could be better used for a bigger battery and another Hdd. I suspect that Apple would love to eliminate the Superdrive from all their portables. They could save money, and make a thinner notebook. I suspect that the only reason they have not is because the customer backlash at this point might be to great. Firewire anyone?
I believe that as costs come down on sdhc cards they could become as common as dvd's and then we will see the elimination of Superdrives on portables.
1) Removing the large, slow, power consuming ODD from a Mac notebook DOES NOT MEAN that you have no ODD in a desktop, a non-Mac notebook or your home entertainment system.
2) Historically, Apple is not the first to make a change, but they are usually a first to make the change across their entire product line. For example: CD drives over floppy drives (not the first), DisplayPort over DVI or HDMI (not the first). They?re also not the first to remove the ODD. The HP Envys don?t have them and they aren?t networks of ultralights.
3) If you are using dial-up as your main access to the internet you are not likely Apple?s Mac consumer base. Remember when they removed the RJ-11 jack from all their machines years ago?
4) Most apps are quite small for even the most basic broadband access and are no where near 400MB. If you have a store-bought version of Windows or Photoshop to install then use and an ODD to install it. NOTHING IS PREVENTING YOU FROM EVER USING AN OPTICAL DRIVE EVER AGAIN. it?s not an all or nothing situation, it?s progress. You still have disk sharing for a Mac which allows net booting, or sharing of your ODD from Windows machine, using an external ODD or using the much faster method of an SD card of USB thumb drive.
5) I think that Apple will put the OS on an 8GB SD card. The HP Envys come with a 2GB SD card for the SUer Manual. I assume they can?t contractually offer Windows on an SD card, but Apple can. You can even do it yourself very easily. I have my Mac OS X Install Disc on each of my HDDs, internally and externally on a 6GB partition so that I?m never without a boot disc. It?s just as easy to put on an SD card or USB thumb drive. Just hold down the Option key at start up and you have instant access. This also makes repairing the disk very, very fast compared to any optical medium.
6) The FireWire issue was just a a bunch of bellyaching. The MacBook never had FW800 and still doesn?t have it. Apple removed the antiquated FW400 port from all Macs. When they made the 13? Aluminium MB a MBP they added FW800 (among other things) as one would expect from a Pro machine.
So he's saying, and it looks like, that Apple is creating more devices so people can balance their portability with their needs better.
People need something between a laptop and a smartphone can get a iTablet.
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
Maybe I missed something, but I don't think he said that, exactly. He predicts that the tablet will replace the MacBook at the low end of the portability needs spectrum. If you buy the reasoning, the existing MacBook either goes away or is subject to being cannibalized by the tablet to some extent.
Technology moves along very fast, but until I can put a 2T SD card in my hand it's just a dream.
Why is 2TB the only capacity that will bring down optical media? Blu-ray is only at 50GB making the SDXC maximum theoretical limit 40x that of a Blu-ray disc. I doubt that most movies use the entire 50GB. How many Blu-ray movies are pushing their extras to an extra 50GB disc?
1) Removing the large, slow, power consuming ODD from a Mac notebook DOES NOT MEAN that you have no ODD in a desktop, a non-Mac notebook or your home entertainment system.
2) Historically, Apple is not the first to make a change, but they are usually a first to make the change across their entire product line. For example: CD drives over floppy drives (not the first), DisplayPort over DVI or HDMI (not the first). They?re also not the first to remove the ODD. The HP Envys don?t have them and they aren?t networks of ultralights.
3) If you are using dial-up as your main access to the internet you are not likely Apple?s Mac consumer base. Remember when they removed the RJ-11 jack from all their machines years ago?
4) Most apps are quite small for even the most basic broadband access and are no where near 400MB. If you have a store-bought version of Windows or Photoshop to install then use and an ODD to install it. NOTHING IS PREVENTING YOU FROM EVER USING AN OPTICAL DRIVE EVER AGAIN. it?s not an all or nothing situation, it?s progress. You still have disk sharing for a Mac which allows net booting, or sharing of your ODD from Windows machine, using an external ODD or using the much faster method of an SD card of USB thumb drive.
5) I think that Apple will put the OS on an 8GB SD card. The HP Envys come with a 2GB SD card for the SUer Manual. I assume they can?t contractually offer Windows on an SD card, but Apple can. You can even do it yourself very easily. I have my Mac OS X Install Disc on each of my HDDs, internally and externally on a 6GB partition so that I?m never without a boot disc. It?s just as easy to put on an SD card or USB thumb drive. Just hold down the Option key at start up and you have instant access. This also makes repairing the disk very, very fast compared to any optical medium.
6) The FireWire issue was just a a bunch of bellyaching. The MacBook never had FW800 and still doesn?t have it. Apple removed the antiquated FW400 port from all Macs. When they made the 13? Aluminium MB a MBP they added FW800 (among other things) as one would expect from a Pro machine.
I pretty much agree with you, I was simply bloviating on why I think they have not yet removed them and what conditions will be present for them to pull the trigger on their removal. The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
Any way I simply meant that people on dial up or with a severe bandwidth cap may be more reluctant to buy any machine with out a cd-rom even if the reality is that they don't need it.
I think that Apple being Apple will eventually remove them from notebooks regardless of any protests. My W.A.G is 18-24 months or sooner if Flash prices drop. To my way of thinking the price points are almost where it needs to be for flash memory cards to become "disposable".
I also believe that physical forms of media (dvd's etc) will be remain popular for most of the decade, but that certainly does not mean streaming and downloading will not continue to grow and become even more pervasive. As I said in another post there are certain factors that I believe will keep streaming or downloading from completely eliminating the physical media.
Just finished watching Doctor Who End of time Part 2 and wow that was good.
Like the iPhone, the people targeted with this thing will be those who just want a computer that works to look at photos, browse the internet, write a mail sometimes and read a book.
Yes it'll have a specific focus on a subset of "traditional" tasks.
Not just linked to having no keyboard either - but hopefully because it is using cheaper, smaller, cooler, more power-efficient chips which thus don't try to be all things to all people - but focus on the tablet needs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shubidua
....a physical keyboard will keep a place for still a long while in what one might call "professional" computing, there is no way you can make a keynote, write a document in pages or work in PS on such a device, but that is not what it is meant for.
Absolutely the keyboard has its place. One of Apple's tablet challenges will be to find apps that we THOUGHT needed a keyboard (or need it to a point) but that can accomplish much of their purpose via a touch screen (perhaps a tradeoff which comes out even or better for the tablet).
And there may also be some tasks that aren't suited to traditional laptops at all which are brilliant for a tablet.
btw... I wonder if we'll see a reinvention of Pages/Numbers - such that a desktop and tablet version work together in a new way.
Why is 2TB the only capacity that will bring down optical media? Blu-ray is only at 50GB making the SDXC maximum theoretical limit 40x that of a Blu-ray disc. I doubt that most movies use the entire 50GB. How many Blu-ray movies are pushing their extras to an extra 50GB disc?
I was using it as the extreme example since that is supposed to be the current theoretical limited espoused here a few months ago. Somewhere along that path we may see HD movies delivered on that medium in a smaller capacity similar to current BR capacity, but I don't see when that would be cost effective given the price of the medium. But wouldn't it be nice to back everything up to a little SD card and keep it in a safe place as a master for when failures occur. My friend had a 1T HD go down with a bunch of movies on it..... I haven't thrown my original DVDs away for this very reason. Even 1 HD movie on a SD card would be better than optical, but how far away is that? - meanwhile BR is becoming mainstream. Apple TV with it's non functioning USB port only allows for wireless backup at the moment, correct? I guess if your HD content is only 2.5gb in size it's acceptable, but with normal size HD content it's not.
There's a lot of extras on BR discs, but most movies are least 15gb big with newer movies being larger than that. How much is a 16gb SD card? $30-40 online.... It's years away mate
A liver transplant really only prolongs the eventual.
Once he's gone, the world will morn and Microsoft will rear it's ugly 95% market share head once again.
Where are the Windows 7 viruses when you need them?
The way I see things going, Apple is going to lean heavily upon the new iTablet/iSlate/iPhone OS UI with new devices and when Steve goes, OS X will fade off into the sunset on MacBook Pro's and MacPro's only as Windows 7 gains strength.
Apple might even begin selling Windows 7 Mac's in order to keep selling hardware.
I don't think the innovation and drive will continue long at Apple without Steve.
China is draining the world of jobs, industry and resources. Japan never recovered from their real estate bubble, neither will the US until the Chinese market is saturated which could take quite some time. This means high unemployment in the US, Japan and Europe for at least a decade, and less people that can afford pricey computers from Apple.
So this iSlate, it better be cheap and very functional for mass appeal.
Apple would be wise to target the post baby boom generations needs with the device, it's the only segment of the population with the most disposable income. Most college grads are not finding jobs and moving back in with moms.
Could be a rise in basement dweller geeks though...
Only his doctors have an idea about the prognosis. Close follow up by the transplant team, oncologists can make a significant difference... plus diet and lifestyle like working hours.
I suspect the stock at some point will peak like other tech stocks like IBM, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, etc. Elephants do not grow to the sky.
The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
That isn?t what I?m saying at all. There are certainly people that can afford Macs or other higher-end PCs that can?t get a decent internet connection, but that is beside the point. Not having an INTERNAL optical drive in a notebook doesn?t automatically make a DESKTOP optical drive disappear or make an EXTERNAL optical drive impossible. Removing the optical drive from notebooks is the future of personal computing. Everything is pointing to it and the trend is slowly catching on but I suppose most people are still under the idea that movies and OS installs have to be done from a plastic disc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skiracer1987
I was using it as the extreme example since that is supposed to be the current theoretical limited espoused here a few months ago. Somewhere along that path we may see HD movies delivered on that medium in a smaller capacity similar to current BR capacity, but I don't see when that would be cost effective given the price of the medium. But wouldn't it be nice to back everything up to a little SD card and keep it in a safe place as a master for when failures occur. My friend had a 1T HD go down with a bunch of movies on it..... I haven't thrown my original DVDs away for this very reason. Even 1 HD movie on a SD card would be better than optical, but how far away is that? - meanwhile BR is becoming mainstream. Apple TV with it's non functioning USB port only allows for wireless backup at the moment, correct? I guess if your HD content is only 2.5gb in size it's acceptable, but with normal size HD content it's not.
There's a lot of extras on BR discs, but most movies are least 15gb big with newer movies being larger than that. How much is a 16gb SD card? $30-40 online.... It's years away mate
Not having a Blu-ray player in your notebook doesn?t mean you can?t have a Blu-ray player for your home entertainment center. Why do you think that without a Blu-ray drive in every piece of equipment you own it?s can?t be a viable format?
Digitial downloads and streaming video is popular. It?ll going to overtake optical formats, but that doesn?t mean that Blu-ray is no longer going to exist. Why do you think that for one to thrive the other can?t exist?
There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
What happened to the idea of "kiosks" where you could buy a movie and it would download to a memory stick?
I wonder if such an idea would actually work.
For example:
Say I buy a season pass to a TV show. My slow home connection starts downloading it when the next episode becomes available. But when I go into work my iPhone passes an AT&T hotspot, and it automatically starts downloading a portion of the TV show that hasn't already been done at home. My wife walks past an Apple store and her iPod Touch downloads a portion. I get to work and it gets another (different) portion there (since I set a preference for downloading on that wireless network). When we return home our devices amalgamate the download. All without doing anything.
What happened to the idea of "kiosks" where you could buy a movie and it would download to a memory stick?
I know Blockbuster was looking into it but I can’t imagine it working out too well since they expect you to supply the SD card and it’ll be encrypted thus requiring a player that can decrypt it. That would likely be a dedicated player, not some PC software you install.
That isn?t what I?m saying at all. There are certainly people that can afford Macs or other higher-end PCs that can?t get a decent internet connection, but that is beside the point. Not having an INTERNAL optical drive in a notebook doesn?t automatically make a DESKTOP optical drive disappear or make an EXTERNAL optical drive impossible. Removing the optical drive from notebooks is the future of personal computing. Everything is pointing to it and the trend is slowly catching on but I suppose most people are still under the idea that movies and OS installs have to be done from a plastic disc.
Not having a Blu-ray player in your notebook doesn?t mean you can?t have a Blu-ray player for your home entertainment center. Why do you think that without a Blu-ray drive in every piece of equipment you own it?s can?t be a viable format?
Digitial downloads and streaming video is popular. It?ll going to overtake optical formats, but that doesn?t mean that Blu-ray is no longer going to exist. Why do you think that for one to thrive the other can?t exist?
There i
Agreed, the real reason appletv has been slow to sell is lack of a subscription model (netflix, blockbuster online). If apple starts up an afordable subscription model they will see a lot more interest in appletv.
FWIW, Robert Scoble says he knows someone who used to work at Apple with first-hand knowledge of a tablet device. According to him, Jobs wants it to be his legacy product and he seems to hint that Jobs may be sicker than we've been led to believe.
oh snap. not that stuff again.
Jobs is likely fine. If he's not, the company will go on. Computer tech doesn't happen overnight. They are working on things that won't see the light of day for a good 5-10 years. And Jobs hand picked and trained the folks running the ship. I'm sure they know and believe in his way of thinking and will carry on the Jobs philosophy just fine.
so can we stop the 'he's dying' rumors before the stock tanks again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers
They really need to follow Netflix and buy the entire back catalog of movies for streaming. Apple could afford to do this for free or low cost and I think it would really drive AppleTV adoption.
some areas have crap connection speeds. downloading works better cause you can grab the whole thing and watch without stutters from a bad connection etc.
so perhaps what they need to do is to help develop better encoding so they can offer real 1080 HD at a decent filesize. and then add more rents, lower the prices, etc.
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
I?m with you there.
I disagree. As DaringFireball points out, some proportion of consumers currently own a desktop and a phone. Likely an iMac and an iPhone. Currently, if they decide that they also need a "portable" (c.f. "mobile") Apple device, their choice is limited to a MacBook (or MacBook Air). In the future, this choice will likely be between a Macbook and a Tablet. Ergo, cannibilzation.
It's likely correct to say that the Tablet won't replace (read "cannibalize") many consumers' primary computer (which will continue to feature a keyboard for a while yet), however this is not the same as saying that it won't cannibalize MacBook sales.
You generally seem to know what you are talking about Solipsism so I hate to see you not think something through.
Comments
Also noted was Apple TV, which while being rumored to face discontinuation as an experimental "hobby" that the company never managed to achieve blockbuster sales with, is still being updated and expanded. Over the past few months, Apple released the Apple TV 3.0 update and added support for iTunes LP and Extras.
Did I miss something? What rumour of discontinuation? I've seen speculation & lots of people who don't like the current AppleTV... but no rumours.
I suspect the next AppleTV will have the same chip that'll be in the tablet.
Apple TV clearly needs a shake-up. The TV revolution is not happening fast enough for Apple in that sector and they should bite the bullet; add BluRay and tuners or give up and come back in a couple of years.
I was surprised AppleTV couldn't play AVIs, though I see their reasoning. But it was a similar (mp3) move which helped iPods until online sales were setup well.
Adding a tuner could be interesting... in that it could be used as leverage to get the networks more involved.
ie: (as an example)
1) an "unknown" show gets treated like any other TiVo recording
2) a "known" show is marked for precise start/finish times (and ad times), can only skim ads manually (not skip), and can have the ads replaced with customised interactive ads - OR pay 50c to watch ad-free. Or buy via download.
A tuner also prefers HD recordings AND takes the pressure off the internet until things improve.
But tuner or BluRay - Apple seems to see it as not "true to their vision of the future".
If anything, Apple should really just try and position the Mac Mini as the entertainment PC of the home. Stick in a BR drive and update Front Row to match the AppleTV 3.0 interface (plus capabilities).
Build "AppleTV" software as a parallel product to iTunes. Run AppleTV SOFTWARE on your Mac, PC, iPhone, iPod Touch, Tablet OR dedicated hardware.
They really need to follow Netflix and buy the entire back catalog of movies for streaming. Apple could afford to do this for free or low cost and I think it would really drive AppleTV adoption.
That's a good idea I hadn't thought of (and haven't seen mentioned). If they're doing a deal with a few TV networks why not add a huge back catalog of movies for a small subscription fee?
Why streaming though? Doesn't the current download (and watch immediately) model work well enough?
Did I miss something? What rumour of discontinuation? I've seen speculation & lots of people who don't like the current AppleTV... but no rumours.
I think it was a lot like AI?s rumours of the Mac Mini being discoed. Since they?ve both been passed up for HW updates people assumed Apple was just selling out of supply before dropping it. In both case, Apple can?t let go of the product category, even much more so with the AppleTV.
I don?t understand why optical drives in a PC can?t go away until optical cables come to your home. There is no 1:1 correlation between them because they both have optical in the name.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that some people still do not have broadband available in the home? Wouldn't those people be more likely to still use physical media for software and such? Trying to download a 400 meg software update over dialup would be a craptastic waste of time.
When I look at the space occupied by the Superdrive on my macbook I can't help but think that the space could be better used for a bigger battery and another Hdd. I suspect that Apple would love to eliminate the Superdrive from all their portables. They could save money, and make a thinner notebook. I suspect that the only reason they have not is because the customer backlash at this point might be to great. Firewire anyone?
I believe that as costs come down on sdhc cards they could become as common as dvd's and then we will see the elimination of Superdrives on portables.
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
Sounds like what people said when the iPhone came out back in 2007.
However I agree that a physical keyboard will keep a place for still a long while in what one might call "professional" computing, there is no way you can make a keynote, write a document in pages or work in PS on such a device, but that is not what it is meant for.
Like the iPhone, the people targeted with this thing will be those who just want a computer that works to look at photos, browse the internet, write a mail sometimes and read a book. For the rest there will still be a MacBook Pro.
Most people don't care how powerful their machine is and what crazy stuff they can do with it.
I realised this when I met a person who was just happy with a vista laptop running on 512 MB with a 2 GHz Celeron machine and told me that she was happy with it, as it did everything she wanted just fine.
For a media extender appliance it looked to be doing very well, but that whole market was new and hadn?t taken off. With TiVo, PS3, XBOX 360, and other appliances getting decent to good media extender features the AppleTV and other standalone media extenders are definitely now lackluster and limiting in many ways.
I could live with the limited codec support but the hardware definitely needs a refresh. I was waiting for a hardware refresh to buy one because the current models inability to play 1080 content
is to limiting for me. I an now thinking that a WD TV Live would be a good fit for my bedroom tv, 125 dollars and plays 1080 Hd content in pretty much any format.
IMHO I think that if Apple waits to much longer to do a major upgrade to atv it risks becoming a permanent also ran.
I think you are a bit off on that prediction. One problem is that many people do not have access to fast broadband. Another thing to consider is that some of the fastest broadband pipes (in the U.S.A) are provided by companies that also sell content. Comcast is constantly complaining about "bandwidth hogs" and are trying to push monthly data caps. 25-50 Gb a month might seem like a lot but that would be eaten up very quickly with even lower rez hd content. On the other hand they are thrilled to let you be a "bandwidth hog" when you are buying and downloading shows from them. These companies do not want their broadband services to become a dumb utility service for itunes, netflix et al because they do not get a cut of that revenue. And I believe that as streaming and downloading shows becomes more prevalent you will see a showdown between broadband providers and services like itunes and netflix. Net result IMHO will be that we the consumer will loose because of higher fees, bandwidth caps and even lose the ability to connect to certain services. That is why I believe that blu-ray and other physical forms of media distribution will be around for a good portion of this decade.
I agree with this.... as much as I want everything streaming and downloadable.... Comcast puts a 250gb limit here where I live. If everyone was streaming HD content all the time they would go over this pretty easily. I see optical lasting another 5 years minimum. Technology moves along very fast, but until I can put a 2T SD card in my hand it's just a dream. Yeah I would love to have every movie I own on an itty bitty card and backed up 2-3 times over... but how far off is that? 5-10 years? In the meantime Apple's TV offering is behind the curve, I am really waiting for them to produce something worth buying. I'm hoping the next HW update to Apple TV will be it. I want to be able to plug in my 3.5" dinosaur magnetic drives with my DVD and HD content already on it and have everything where I can find it. Searchable would be nice.... and why is a 1hr 30min 2.6 GB "HD" movie $19.99 on itunes?? The same BR disc is $19.99 on Amazon.com.... (G-Force).
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that some people still do not have broadband available in the home? Wouldn't those people be more likely to still use physical media for software and such? Trying to download a 400 meg software update over dialup would be a craptastic waste of time.
When I look at the space occupied by the Superdrive on my macbook I can't help but think that the space could be better used for a bigger battery and another Hdd. I suspect that Apple would love to eliminate the Superdrive from all their portables. They could save money, and make a thinner notebook. I suspect that the only reason they have not is because the customer backlash at this point might be to great. Firewire anyone?
I believe that as costs come down on sdhc cards they could become as common as dvd's and then we will see the elimination of Superdrives on portables.
1) Removing the large, slow, power consuming ODD from a Mac notebook DOES NOT MEAN that you have no ODD in a desktop, a non-Mac notebook or your home entertainment system.
2) Historically, Apple is not the first to make a change, but they are usually a first to make the change across their entire product line. For example: CD drives over floppy drives (not the first), DisplayPort over DVI or HDMI (not the first). They?re also not the first to remove the ODD. The HP Envys don?t have them and they aren?t networks of ultralights.
3) If you are using dial-up as your main access to the internet you are not likely Apple?s Mac consumer base. Remember when they removed the RJ-11 jack from all their machines years ago?
4) Most apps are quite small for even the most basic broadband access and are no where near 400MB. If you have a store-bought version of Windows or Photoshop to install then use and an ODD to install it. NOTHING IS PREVENTING YOU FROM EVER USING AN OPTICAL DRIVE EVER AGAIN. it?s not an all or nothing situation, it?s progress. You still have disk sharing for a Mac which allows net booting, or sharing of your ODD from Windows machine, using an external ODD or using the much faster method of an SD card of USB thumb drive.
5) I think that Apple will put the OS on an 8GB SD card. The HP Envys come with a 2GB SD card for the SUer Manual. I assume they can?t contractually offer Windows on an SD card, but Apple can. You can even do it yourself very easily. I have my Mac OS X Install Disc on each of my HDDs, internally and externally on a 6GB partition so that I?m never without a boot disc. It?s just as easy to put on an SD card or USB thumb drive. Just hold down the Option key at start up and you have instant access. This also makes repairing the disk very, very fast compared to any optical medium.
6) The FireWire issue was just a a bunch of bellyaching. The MacBook never had FW800 and still doesn?t have it. Apple removed the antiquated FW400 port from all Macs. When they made the 13? Aluminium MB a MBP they added FW800 (among other things) as one would expect from a Pro machine.
Yes very good.
So he's saying, and it looks like, that Apple is creating more devices so people can balance their portability with their needs better.
People need something between a laptop and a smartphone can get a iTablet.
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
Maybe I missed something, but I don't think he said that, exactly. He predicts that the tablet will replace the MacBook at the low end of the portability needs spectrum. If you buy the reasoning, the existing MacBook either goes away or is subject to being cannibalized by the tablet to some extent.
Technology moves along very fast, but until I can put a 2T SD card in my hand it's just a dream.
Why is 2TB the only capacity that will bring down optical media? Blu-ray is only at 50GB making the SDXC maximum theoretical limit 40x that of a Blu-ray disc. I doubt that most movies use the entire 50GB. How many Blu-ray movies are pushing their extras to an extra 50GB disc?
1) Removing the large, slow, power consuming ODD from a Mac notebook DOES NOT MEAN that you have no ODD in a desktop, a non-Mac notebook or your home entertainment system.
2) Historically, Apple is not the first to make a change, but they are usually a first to make the change across their entire product line. For example: CD drives over floppy drives (not the first), DisplayPort over DVI or HDMI (not the first). They?re also not the first to remove the ODD. The HP Envys don?t have them and they aren?t networks of ultralights.
3) If you are using dial-up as your main access to the internet you are not likely Apple?s Mac consumer base. Remember when they removed the RJ-11 jack from all their machines years ago?
4) Most apps are quite small for even the most basic broadband access and are no where near 400MB. If you have a store-bought version of Windows or Photoshop to install then use and an ODD to install it. NOTHING IS PREVENTING YOU FROM EVER USING AN OPTICAL DRIVE EVER AGAIN. it?s not an all or nothing situation, it?s progress. You still have disk sharing for a Mac which allows net booting, or sharing of your ODD from Windows machine, using an external ODD or using the much faster method of an SD card of USB thumb drive.
5) I think that Apple will put the OS on an 8GB SD card. The HP Envys come with a 2GB SD card for the SUer Manual. I assume they can?t contractually offer Windows on an SD card, but Apple can. You can even do it yourself very easily. I have my Mac OS X Install Disc on each of my HDDs, internally and externally on a 6GB partition so that I?m never without a boot disc. It?s just as easy to put on an SD card or USB thumb drive. Just hold down the Option key at start up and you have instant access. This also makes repairing the disk very, very fast compared to any optical medium.
6) The FireWire issue was just a a bunch of bellyaching. The MacBook never had FW800 and still doesn?t have it. Apple removed the antiquated FW400 port from all Macs. When they made the 13? Aluminium MB a MBP they added FW800 (among other things) as one would expect from a Pro machine.
I pretty much agree with you, I was simply bloviating on why I think they have not yet removed them and what conditions will be present for them to pull the trigger on their removal. The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
Any way I simply meant that people on dial up or with a severe bandwidth cap may be more reluctant to buy any machine with out a cd-rom even if the reality is that they don't need it.
I think that Apple being Apple will eventually remove them from notebooks regardless of any protests. My W.A.G is 18-24 months or sooner if Flash prices drop. To my way of thinking the price points are almost where it needs to be for flash memory cards to become "disposable".
I also believe that physical forms of media (dvd's etc) will be remain popular for most of the decade, but that certainly does not mean streaming and downloading will not continue to grow and become even more pervasive. As I said in another post there are certain factors that I believe will keep streaming or downloading from completely eliminating the physical media.
Just finished watching Doctor Who End of time Part 2 and wow that was good.
Like the iPhone, the people targeted with this thing will be those who just want a computer that works to look at photos, browse the internet, write a mail sometimes and read a book.
Yes it'll have a specific focus on a subset of "traditional" tasks.
Not just linked to having no keyboard either - but hopefully because it is using cheaper, smaller, cooler, more power-efficient chips which thus don't try to be all things to all people - but focus on the tablet needs.
....a physical keyboard will keep a place for still a long while in what one might call "professional" computing, there is no way you can make a keynote, write a document in pages or work in PS on such a device, but that is not what it is meant for.
Absolutely the keyboard has its place. One of Apple's tablet challenges will be to find apps that we THOUGHT needed a keyboard (or need it to a point) but that can accomplish much of their purpose via a touch screen (perhaps a tradeoff which comes out even or better for the tablet).
And there may also be some tasks that aren't suited to traditional laptops at all which are brilliant for a tablet.
btw... I wonder if we'll see a reinvention of Pages/Numbers - such that a desktop and tablet version work together in a new way.
Why is 2TB the only capacity that will bring down optical media? Blu-ray is only at 50GB making the SDXC maximum theoretical limit 40x that of a Blu-ray disc. I doubt that most movies use the entire 50GB. How many Blu-ray movies are pushing their extras to an extra 50GB disc?
I was using it as the extreme example since that is supposed to be the current theoretical limited espoused here a few months ago. Somewhere along that path we may see HD movies delivered on that medium in a smaller capacity similar to current BR capacity, but I don't see when that would be cost effective given the price of the medium. But wouldn't it be nice to back everything up to a little SD card and keep it in a safe place as a master for when failures occur. My friend had a 1T HD go down with a bunch of movies on it..... I haven't thrown my original DVDs away for this very reason. Even 1 HD movie on a SD card would be better than optical, but how far away is that? - meanwhile BR is becoming mainstream. Apple TV with it's non functioning USB port only allows for wireless backup at the moment, correct? I guess if your HD content is only 2.5gb in size it's acceptable, but with normal size HD content it's not.
There's a lot of extras on BR discs, but most movies are least 15gb big with newer movies being larger than that. How much is a 16gb SD card? $30-40 online.... It's years away mate
A liver transplant really only prolongs the eventual.
Once he's gone, the world will morn and Microsoft will rear it's ugly 95% market share head once again.
Where are the Windows 7 viruses when you need them?
The way I see things going, Apple is going to lean heavily upon the new iTablet/iSlate/iPhone OS UI with new devices and when Steve goes, OS X will fade off into the sunset on MacBook Pro's and MacPro's only as Windows 7 gains strength.
Apple might even begin selling Windows 7 Mac's in order to keep selling hardware.
I don't think the innovation and drive will continue long at Apple without Steve.
China is draining the world of jobs, industry and resources. Japan never recovered from their real estate bubble, neither will the US until the Chinese market is saturated which could take quite some time. This means high unemployment in the US, Japan and Europe for at least a decade, and less people that can afford pricey computers from Apple.
So this iSlate, it better be cheap and very functional for mass appeal.
Apple would be wise to target the post baby boom generations needs with the device, it's the only segment of the population with the most disposable income. Most college grads are not finding jobs and moving back in with moms.
Could be a rise in basement dweller geeks though...
Only his doctors have an idea about the prognosis. Close follow up by the transplant team, oncologists can make a significant difference... plus diet and lifestyle like working hours.
I suspect the stock at some point will peak like other tech stocks like IBM, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, etc. Elephants do not grow to the sky.
The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
That isn?t what I?m saying at all. There are certainly people that can afford Macs or other higher-end PCs that can?t get a decent internet connection, but that is beside the point. Not having an INTERNAL optical drive in a notebook doesn?t automatically make a DESKTOP optical drive disappear or make an EXTERNAL optical drive impossible. Removing the optical drive from notebooks is the future of personal computing. Everything is pointing to it and the trend is slowly catching on but I suppose most people are still under the idea that movies and OS installs have to be done from a plastic disc.
I was using it as the extreme example since that is supposed to be the current theoretical limited espoused here a few months ago. Somewhere along that path we may see HD movies delivered on that medium in a smaller capacity similar to current BR capacity, but I don't see when that would be cost effective given the price of the medium. But wouldn't it be nice to back everything up to a little SD card and keep it in a safe place as a master for when failures occur. My friend had a 1T HD go down with a bunch of movies on it..... I haven't thrown my original DVDs away for this very reason. Even 1 HD movie on a SD card would be better than optical, but how far away is that? - meanwhile BR is becoming mainstream. Apple TV with it's non functioning USB port only allows for wireless backup at the moment, correct? I guess if your HD content is only 2.5gb in size it's acceptable, but with normal size HD content it's not.
There's a lot of extras on BR discs, but most movies are least 15gb big with newer movies being larger than that. How much is a 16gb SD card? $30-40 online.... It's years away mate
Not having a Blu-ray player in your notebook doesn?t mean you can?t have a Blu-ray player for your home entertainment center. Why do you think that without a Blu-ray drive in every piece of equipment you own it?s can?t be a viable format?
Digitial downloads and streaming video is popular. It?ll going to overtake optical formats, but that doesn?t mean that Blu-ray is no longer going to exist. Why do you think that for one to thrive the other can?t exist?
There i
There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
What happened to the idea of "kiosks" where you could buy a movie and it would download to a memory stick?
I wonder if such an idea would actually work.
For example:
Say I buy a season pass to a TV show. My slow home connection starts downloading it when the next episode becomes available. But when I go into work my iPhone passes an AT&T hotspot, and it automatically starts downloading a portion of the TV show that hasn't already been done at home. My wife walks past an Apple store and her iPod Touch downloads a portion. I get to work and it gets another (different) portion there (since I set a preference for downloading on that wireless network). When we return home our devices amalgamate the download. All without doing anything.
What happened to the idea of "kiosks" where you could buy a movie and it would download to a memory stick?
I know Blockbuster was looking into it but I can’t imagine it working out too well since they expect you to supply the SD card and it’ll be encrypted thus requiring a player that can decrypt it. That would likely be a dedicated player, not some PC software you install.
What the hell are you talking about?
Exactly, someon's just come from crazy town.
That isn?t what I?m saying at all. There are certainly people that can afford Macs or other higher-end PCs that can?t get a decent internet connection, but that is beside the point. Not having an INTERNAL optical drive in a notebook doesn?t automatically make a DESKTOP optical drive disappear or make an EXTERNAL optical drive impossible. Removing the optical drive from notebooks is the future of personal computing. Everything is pointing to it and the trend is slowly catching on but I suppose most people are still under the idea that movies and OS installs have to be done from a plastic disc.
Not having a Blu-ray player in your notebook doesn?t mean you can?t have a Blu-ray player for your home entertainment center. Why do you think that without a Blu-ray drive in every piece of equipment you own it?s can?t be a viable format?
Digitial downloads and streaming video is popular. It?ll going to overtake optical formats, but that doesn?t mean that Blu-ray is no longer going to exist. Why do you think that for one to thrive the other can?t exist?
There i
Agreed, the real reason appletv has been slow to sell is lack of a subscription model (netflix, blockbuster online). If apple starts up an afordable subscription model they will see a lot more interest in appletv.
FWIW, Robert Scoble says he knows someone who used to work at Apple with first-hand knowledge of a tablet device. According to him, Jobs wants it to be his legacy product and he seems to hint that Jobs may be sicker than we've been led to believe.
oh snap. not that stuff again.
Jobs is likely fine. If he's not, the company will go on. Computer tech doesn't happen overnight. They are working on things that won't see the light of day for a good 5-10 years. And Jobs hand picked and trained the folks running the ship. I'm sure they know and believe in his way of thinking and will carry on the Jobs philosophy just fine.
so can we stop the 'he's dying' rumors before the stock tanks again.
They really need to follow Netflix and buy the entire back catalog of movies for streaming. Apple could afford to do this for free or low cost and I think it would really drive AppleTV adoption.
some areas have crap connection speeds. downloading works better cause you can grab the whole thing and watch without stutters from a bad connection etc.
so perhaps what they need to do is to help develop better encoding so they can offer real 1080 HD at a decent filesize. and then add more rents, lower the prices, etc.
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
I?m with you there.
I disagree. As DaringFireball points out, some proportion of consumers currently own a desktop and a phone. Likely an iMac and an iPhone. Currently, if they decide that they also need a "portable" (c.f. "mobile") Apple device, their choice is limited to a MacBook (or MacBook Air). In the future, this choice will likely be between a Macbook and a Tablet. Ergo, cannibilzation.
It's likely correct to say that the Tablet won't replace (read "cannibalize") many consumers' primary computer (which will continue to feature a keyboard for a while yet), however this is not the same as saying that it won't cannibalize MacBook sales.
You generally seem to know what you are talking about Solipsism so I hate to see you not think something through.