Because the original statement I referenced made the claim that the entire medium of optical discs would soon be supplanted by downloads. Not just for computers - all uses!
A blue ray disc has a capacity of 25 gb. To download that much data at 2.4 mbps dsl would take 23 hours, 8 minutes and 53 seconds.
There are blu-ray developments in the pipeline where 200 gb per disc may be possible, that's 7 days, 17 hours, 11 minutes and 6 seconds to download.
Now do you see my point?
Part of me agrees that eventually there will be no need for disks... but in the meantime. Even if I can download a full episode of an hour show HD 720p episode which is 1.2GB which took 7 min on Comcast cable. You also have to remember that it is the show only-no extras. I first have to say I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of it on my 23" Cinema Display which is what I always use to watch movies. It was on the edge of softening but still a little better than most DVDs. One other limit is that it is protected media. It can't be copied or edited. So, if you want to see just one scene that you love on a iTouch, you can't. You have to load the whole movie. This in itself does limit most of my purchases from iTunes. I may really like the show but there are always scenes I want to put aside to see. I think of those Saturday Night Live skits, too.
A small correction is that Blu-ray dual layer disks hold 50GB. I can see the physical limit for laptops which is what I am using now if they can't slim down the BRD. But, what about that beautiful new iMac with a 27" display? I could see a BRD there for sure. I would be very tempted since I could use a faster processor anyway in the near future. Buying BR would be no problem and would be great for some movies where special qualities of detail will increase the viewing pleasure + the extras. I don't have an HD TV and don't plan on getting one this year but the iMac 27" w/BR, I would. My desktop is slower compared to my MBP so an upgrade there would be great.: D
I don?t think the most likely combo is an iMac or any desktop, but a MB/MBP or notebook and an iPhone, which would make the entire point of the tablet nullified if it was supposed to be an either/or device, especially one that is likely to be cheaper than a notebook and likelt make less profit.
I have no idea if I?ll want this tablet until I see it, but now matter how I look at the rumours for the proposed business model I can?t see any way an ARM-based device with little storage can compete with an Intel C2D with a lot of storage. That doesn?t get into the usability issue of a 13? display v. a 7? or 10? display, or the lack of a physical keyboard which will eat a good portion of the display when activated.
I can?t see a tablet replacing any notebook as your main computer. Take a look at any Windows-based notebook or the ModBook. They have a full version of Mac OS X on them and they are crap to use as a general purpose PC. For this reason I don?t think Apple would bring to market something that is meant to be a PC shoehorned into a tablet, but a device that is designed to be a accessory device to fill a certain need we likely don?t have a need for yet, which is why I think Apple has been trying to get publishers on board.
You have got a point here.
But what are the programs that need to run on this thing in order to replace a MacBook as a general computer for most people. This would be applications that run on a netbook too, because at a 10" screen, that is what we have to compare it to.
My guess is most people use them to go on the internet, browsing the web, writing mails, streaming some video and music, hang out on my space. Write a text document once in a while and read some books.
For the storage problem, I think we should add the streaming into the equation, as apple bought Lala not so long ago, and a server farm project is going on too, so I think the main storage for all media content will be in the cloud.
The one thing that is missing, is a way to store photos elsewhere than on the device, as they may take up a lot of storage over time.
I think this meets the needs for a fair amount of people for whom this may replace their main computer, for the others it will be a nice gadget, and lets face it, many people will buy it because there is in apple somewhere on the back
I'm interested to see what happens with the 'tablet'
but more keen to see what Apple does to appease the more professional market - the Mac Pro - will Apple buck to Blu-Ray pressure and add more support? Will more powerful Mac Pro's come out for the upper-high-end market? Not that I could afford it, just nice to wish for it
FWIW, Robert Scoble says he knows someone who used to work at Apple with first-hand knowledge of a tablet device. According to him, Jobs wants it to be his legacy product and he seems to hint that Jobs may be sicker than we've been led to believe.
And if Steve doesn't show up for the annoucement(s) on the 26th, this WILL cause some serious wonders about him and his health.
Now that being said, I feel it's time for him to step down, take care of himself and worry about things other then Apple.
O for one, would love to see him present at this meeting, and looking good. A side from Apple, I for one, would love to see him (and other sick folks), all get better. It's not going to happen I know, but hey, here's to hoping.
Has anyone wondered what Apple's NEXT big thing is going to be??? I don't like I've seen anything written or talked about. Maybe we should start a survey?
- A Tablet or Laptop that the screen is very flexible. It is maybe 4", 5", 6" in size, UNTIL you unfold it to 8" x 8" or 12" x 12" or whatever. Now this will allow for up-dates to 18" x 18" or just about any other size, giving Apple something new to talk about and presnt to folks for months after the first announcements.
- A projector iPod/iPhone/iTV device (much like the new phone out there), that is your computer. You just project it onto a big screen at your desk. Maybe it's projected onto a screen that allows for using your fingers to get around?
- A computer built into the desktop of your desk?
- Apple purchases a cell phone carrier, a GPS company, a Software Company and creates a device that in fact does it all, a cell phone, a GPS unit, and has some of the best software going. So you take a phone call asking for a new project, which you work on, create, send to the client, who asks you to stop by, and enter the address into the unit, you get to the location, are setting up a meeting, where your "Projector Cell Phone / iPod Touch" puts the presentative up on the screen.
? and your thoughts on what might be coming from Apple?
While not absolutely needed, the launch of the iSlate tablet will certainly help to increase Apple's success in 2010. BusinessWeek recently ran an article indicating that as the iPhone enters its third year, "Apple needs something new to sell to keep delighting its customers, inspiring envy among its competitors, and increasing its sales":
Although I strongly believe Apple's tablet will blow everything-else away in terms of functionality/usability, they also need to be careful with the pricing points, especially since competitors are talking of coming out with relatively cheap tablets such as indicated in this article:
And if Steve doesn't show up for the annoucement(s) on the 26th, this WILL cause some serious wonders about him and his health.
Now that being said, I feel it's time for him to step down, take care of himself and worry about things other then Apple.
O for one, would love to see him present at this meeting, and looking good. A side from Apple, I for one, would love to see him (and other sick folks), all get better. It's not going to happen I know, but hey, here's to hoping.
Has anyone wondered what Apple's NEXT big thing is going to be??? I don't like I've seen anything written or talked about. Maybe we should start a survey?
- A Tablet or Laptop that the screen is very flexible. It is maybe 4", 5", 6" in size, UNTIL you unfold it to 8" x 8" or 12" x 12" or whatever. Now this will allow for up-dates to 18" x 18" or just about any other size, giving Apple something new to talk about and presnt to folks for months after the first announcements.
- A projector iPod/iPhone/iTV device (much like the new phone out there), that is your computer. You just project it onto a big screen at your desk. Maybe it's projected onto a screen that allows for using your fingers to get around?
- A computer built into the desktop of your desk?
- Apple purchases a cell phone carrier, a GPS company, a Software Company and creates a device that in fact does it all, a cell phone, a GPS unit, and has some of the best software going. So you take a phone call asking for a new project, which you work on, create, send to the client, who asks you to stop by, and enter the address into the unit, you get to the location, are setting up a meeting, where your "Projector Cell Phone / iPod Touch" puts the presentative up on the screen.
? and your thoughts on what might be coming from Apple?
Skip
Enough of this drivel about concerns for Steve's health!
Steve's saving grace has been his love of life and his personal drive to realize his dreams. His best bet (and ours) is to simply keep going as he sees fit and as he can.
There's no need for optical discs and moving parts. They truly are on the way out. They'll meet the same demise as floppy disks. Put movies and other content on chips, SD cards, etc.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
There's no need for optical discs and moving parts. They truly are on the way out. They'll meet the same demise as floppy disks. Put movies and other content on chips, SD cards, etc.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
If an iTablet (Slate, whatever) and a wireless keyboard cost less than a MacBook, it will.
So I have a 13? MB with a real keyboard, great trackpad, 4GB RAM, at least a 250GB HDD and whole bunch of other things that allow for speed and usability, like ports. But a 7? or 10? tablet is going that has little to no ports, requires me to buy a keyboard mouse and some sort of stand and now can?t be used in my lap while typing excessively is somehow going to replace a full sized PC? I don?t think so. That doesn?t even get into the likelihood of no Mac app will run on the device.
Enough of this drivel about concerns for Steve's health!
Steve's saving grace has been his love of life and his personal drive to realize his dreams. His best bet (and ours) is to simply keep going as he sees fit and as he can.
Of course. Only brought it up because of what Scoble said as part of several bits of supposedly "inside" information.
There's no need for optical discs and moving parts. They truly are on the way out. They'll meet the same demise as floppy disks. Put movies and other content on chips, SD cards, etc.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
They are not on the way out. Many people, for the last three years, have predicted the demise of hard drives in iPods because it was obvious flash would soon fall in price making them obsolete. In case you haven't noticed, that hasn't happened nor is their any sign flash will ever be able to compete with or replace HDs.
So tell us, what is the current cost per GB of SD cards vs optical media?
They are not on the way out. Many people, for the last three years, have predicted the demise of hard drives in iPods because it was obvious flash would soon fall in price making them obsolete. In case you haven't noticed, that hasn't happened nor is their any sign flash will ever be able to compete with or replace HDs.
So tell us, what is the current cost per GB of SD cards vs optical media?
The HDD-based iPods have been obsolescing for some time. Apple no longer uses a 1? HDD. They went from offering single- and dual-platter 1.8? HDDs in the iPod Classic to just one 1.8? HDD. Note that they call it the Classic. The only benefit it still has is capacity, but that is not the only consideration for storage. There is speed, durability, power usage to name a few.
When the number of people buying iPod Classics drops to a point that makes it not worth the trouble they?ll drop it. The Classic still has about 100GB over the iPod Touch. If next year the Touch gets 128GB capacity and the Classic only gets 200GB then the Touch is getting awfully close to besting the Classic in the one thing area it had over other iPods: capacity. With the 3-bit NAND coming out a 50% increase will be possible with the name architecture. Add another shrinkage and you get double the capacity and that could happen within a couple years.
On the PC-side we are seeing SSDs as options. The size increase takes longer to come to SSDs than with other NAND due to the speed requirements, but it does come. HDDs are obsolescing in many areas of CE. That is a fact.
Leaving size, power usage, chances of mechanical failure and speed out of it, price a 9.5mm Blu-ray player and a single 25GB Blu-ray disc (for my Mac OS X restore disc) to an SD Card reader and a single 32GB SD card (though I only need an 8GB for my Mac OS X restore disc). Which one is cheaper?
I can?t see a tablet replacing any notebook as your main computer.
Agreed. Everybody is likely to need at least one computer (let's call it your MAIN computer) with a keyboard (etc) for quite some time yet. This however is not the interesting question.
The interesting question is: will the tablet be capable of replacing some folks' PORTABLE computers?
Now if your MAIN computer is a PORTABLE (ie a Macbook), then the question is moot (or "moo", as Joey Tribbiani would say)
However, if your MAIN computer is non-portable, then it starts to get interesting. (Keep in mind there are still lots of these people - laptops only just overtook desktop sales recently.)
For these folks, a primary consideration when purchasing a SECOND computer is that it is PORTABLE. It doesn't need to have all the power/storage/functionality of the MAIN computer, but it needs to be small enough to cart around - witness sales of netbooks in the last 2 years.
If various predictions about the capabilities of the tablet are correct, then it it very easy to see the tablet successfuly playing the role of this SECOND, PORTABLE computer for those whose MAIN computer is a desktop.
Everybody is likely to need at least one computer (let's call it your MAIN computer) with a keyboard (etc) for quite some time yet. This however is not the interesting question.
The interesting question is: will the tablet be capable of replacing some folks' PORTABLE computers?
I need a computer, with keyboard. I work in 5 different locations and sometimes type considerably. I'm also supporting Windows machines so need the same input devices (keyboard/mouse) when remotely managing them. But I'm in the upper 5% of demanding users, as most of us probably are.
I know several people who don't type much who could get away with no keyboard. Browsing the web, magazines, games, facebook, emails, etc. SO as you ask - could they use the tablet while out and about but still have a main machine when at home? Probably.
This raises some questions though.
1) could my sister and her husband get away with ONE iMac and 2 tablets? They could set up 2 different users on the iMac and sync all their important data (music, photos, documents, bookmarks.... same as the iPhone now except adding documents).
2) I presume the tablet needs some way of standing up if we're going to watch a film. So if my sister had a bluetooth keyboard/mouse at home connected to the tablet, with a tablet version of pages/numbers/keynote, when do they actually need their iMac? It does have a nice big screen and can run much more powerful applications... but is it required?
* Could a tablet run an effective iPhoto? Create slideshows, add music, etc...? I presume faces would be a problem, but other than that?
* Could a tablet run iMovie? There are movie editors for the iPhone, but it's pretty limited. Is it enough?
* Could a tablet backup all your documents... to MobileMe or TimeCapsule or an external disk or 3rd party? I think it's highly possible.
* Could a tablet print effectively?
* Could a tablet sync its content to AppleTV directly? Or to an iPhone/iPod?
In essence... if Apple provides a full (redesigned) iLife & iWork on the tablet, with optional keyboard/mouse at home, and some form of network backup... PLUS all the apps like the iPhone has - how many people is that enough for?
I pretty much agree with you, I was simply bloviating on why I think they have not yet removed them and what conditions will be present for them to pull the trigger on their removal. The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
Any way I simply meant that people on dial up or with a severe bandwidth cap may be more reluctant to buy any machine with out a cd-rom even if the reality is that they don't need it.
I think that Apple being Apple will eventually remove them from notebooks regardless of any protests. My W.A.G is 18-24 months or sooner if Flash prices drop. To my way of thinking the price points are almost where it needs to be for flash memory cards to become "disposable".
I also believe that physical forms of media (dvd's etc) will be remain popular for most of the decade, but that certainly does not mean streaming and downloading will not continue to grow and become even more pervasive. As I said in another post there are certain factors that I believe will keep streaming or downloading from completely eliminating the physical media.
Just finished watching Doctor Who End of time Part 2 and wow that was good.
Comments
Because the original statement I referenced made the claim that the entire medium of optical discs would soon be supplanted by downloads. Not just for computers - all uses!
A blue ray disc has a capacity of 25 gb. To download that much data at 2.4 mbps dsl would take 23 hours, 8 minutes and 53 seconds.
There are blu-ray developments in the pipeline where 200 gb per disc may be possible, that's 7 days, 17 hours, 11 minutes and 6 seconds to download.
Now do you see my point?
Part of me agrees that eventually there will be no need for disks... but in the meantime. Even if I can download a full episode of an hour show HD 720p episode which is 1.2GB which took 7 min on Comcast cable. You also have to remember that it is the show only-no extras. I first have to say I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of it on my 23" Cinema Display which is what I always use to watch movies. It was on the edge of softening but still a little better than most DVDs. One other limit is that it is protected media. It can't be copied or edited. So, if you want to see just one scene that you love on a iTouch, you can't. You have to load the whole movie. This in itself does limit most of my purchases from iTunes. I may really like the show but there are always scenes I want to put aside to see. I think of those Saturday Night Live skits, too.
A small correction is that Blu-ray dual layer disks hold 50GB. I can see the physical limit for laptops which is what I am using now if they can't slim down the BRD. But, what about that beautiful new iMac with a 27" display? I could see a BRD there for sure. I would be very tempted since I could use a faster processor anyway in the near future. Buying BR would be no problem and would be great for some movies where special qualities of detail will increase the viewing pleasure + the extras. I don't have an HD TV and don't plan on getting one this year but the iMac 27" w/BR, I would. My desktop is slower compared to my MBP so an upgrade there would be great.: D
I don?t think the most likely combo is an iMac or any desktop, but a MB/MBP or notebook and an iPhone, which would make the entire point of the tablet nullified if it was supposed to be an either/or device, especially one that is likely to be cheaper than a notebook and likelt make less profit.
I have no idea if I?ll want this tablet until I see it, but now matter how I look at the rumours for the proposed business model I can?t see any way an ARM-based device with little storage can compete with an Intel C2D with a lot of storage. That doesn?t get into the usability issue of a 13? display v. a 7? or 10? display, or the lack of a physical keyboard which will eat a good portion of the display when activated.
I can?t see a tablet replacing any notebook as your main computer. Take a look at any Windows-based notebook or the ModBook. They have a full version of Mac OS X on them and they are crap to use as a general purpose PC. For this reason I don?t think Apple would bring to market something that is meant to be a PC shoehorned into a tablet, but a device that is designed to be a accessory device to fill a certain need we likely don?t have a need for yet, which is why I think Apple has been trying to get publishers on board.
You have got a point here.
But what are the programs that need to run on this thing in order to replace a MacBook as a general computer for most people. This would be applications that run on a netbook too, because at a 10" screen, that is what we have to compare it to.
My guess is most people use them to go on the internet, browsing the web, writing mails, streaming some video and music, hang out on my space. Write a text document once in a while and read some books.
For the storage problem, I think we should add the streaming into the equation, as apple bought Lala not so long ago, and a server farm project is going on too, so I think the main storage for all media content will be in the cloud.
The one thing that is missing, is a way to store photos elsewhere than on the device, as they may take up a lot of storage over time.
I think this meets the needs for a fair amount of people for whom this may replace their main computer, for the others it will be a nice gadget, and lets face it, many people will buy it because there is in apple somewhere on the back
The news could be updated depending on when it is downloaded for current events while the same longer articles would be the main part of the mag.
There are intriguing possibilities offered by an interactive medium.
Video, sure. Radio interviews. Articles and photos.
Updated as you say.
And a magazine highly customised to my interests?
but more keen to see what Apple does to appease the more professional market - the Mac Pro - will Apple buck to Blu-Ray pressure and add more support? Will more powerful Mac Pro's come out for the upper-high-end market? Not that I could afford it, just nice to wish for it
FWIW, Robert Scoble says he knows someone who used to work at Apple with first-hand knowledge of a tablet device. According to him, Jobs wants it to be his legacy product and he seems to hint that Jobs may be sicker than we've been led to believe.
And if Steve doesn't show up for the annoucement(s) on the 26th, this WILL cause some serious wonders about him and his health.
Now that being said, I feel it's time for him to step down, take care of himself and worry about things other then Apple.
O for one, would love to see him present at this meeting, and looking good. A side from Apple, I for one, would love to see him (and other sick folks), all get better. It's not going to happen I know, but hey, here's to hoping.
Has anyone wondered what Apple's NEXT big thing is going to be??? I don't like I've seen anything written or talked about. Maybe we should start a survey?
- A Tablet or Laptop that the screen is very flexible. It is maybe 4", 5", 6" in size, UNTIL you unfold it to 8" x 8" or 12" x 12" or whatever. Now this will allow for up-dates to 18" x 18" or just about any other size, giving Apple something new to talk about and presnt to folks for months after the first announcements.
- A projector iPod/iPhone/iTV device (much like the new phone out there), that is your computer. You just project it onto a big screen at your desk. Maybe it's projected onto a screen that allows for using your fingers to get around?
- A computer built into the desktop of your desk?
- Apple purchases a cell phone carrier, a GPS company, a Software Company and creates a device that in fact does it all, a cell phone, a GPS unit, and has some of the best software going. So you take a phone call asking for a new project, which you work on, create, send to the client, who asks you to stop by, and enter the address into the unit, you get to the location, are setting up a meeting, where your "Projector Cell Phone / iPod Touch" puts the presentative up on the screen.
? and your thoughts on what might be coming from Apple?
Skip
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home...et-at-the-door
Although I strongly believe Apple's tablet will blow everything-else away in terms of functionality/usability, they also need to be careful with the pricing points, especially since competitors are talking of coming out with relatively cheap tablets such as indicated in this article:
http://www.alltabletnews.com/2010/01...ot-from-apple/
And if Steve doesn't show up for the annoucement(s) on the 26th, this WILL cause some serious wonders about him and his health.
Now that being said, I feel it's time for him to step down, take care of himself and worry about things other then Apple.
O for one, would love to see him present at this meeting, and looking good. A side from Apple, I for one, would love to see him (and other sick folks), all get better. It's not going to happen I know, but hey, here's to hoping.
Has anyone wondered what Apple's NEXT big thing is going to be??? I don't like I've seen anything written or talked about. Maybe we should start a survey?
- A Tablet or Laptop that the screen is very flexible. It is maybe 4", 5", 6" in size, UNTIL you unfold it to 8" x 8" or 12" x 12" or whatever. Now this will allow for up-dates to 18" x 18" or just about any other size, giving Apple something new to talk about and presnt to folks for months after the first announcements.
- A projector iPod/iPhone/iTV device (much like the new phone out there), that is your computer. You just project it onto a big screen at your desk. Maybe it's projected onto a screen that allows for using your fingers to get around?
- A computer built into the desktop of your desk?
- Apple purchases a cell phone carrier, a GPS company, a Software Company and creates a device that in fact does it all, a cell phone, a GPS unit, and has some of the best software going. So you take a phone call asking for a new project, which you work on, create, send to the client, who asks you to stop by, and enter the address into the unit, you get to the location, are setting up a meeting, where your "Projector Cell Phone / iPod Touch" puts the presentative up on the screen.
? and your thoughts on what might be coming from Apple?
Skip
Enough of this drivel about concerns for Steve's health!
Steve's saving grace has been his love of life and his personal drive to realize his dreams. His best bet (and ours) is to simply keep going as he sees fit and as he can.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
What the hell are you talking about?
HE LOST ME on his anti glare tirade6 months ago
since then its doom and gloom all day every day
>>>>>
happy new year 610
peace
bruce
There's no need for optical discs and moving parts. They truly are on the way out. They'll meet the same demise as floppy disks. Put movies and other content on chips, SD cards, etc.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
yes
its coming soon
The iTablet won't cannibalize MacBook sales because it won't have a real keyboard.
If an iTablet (Slate, whatever) and a wireless keyboard cost less than a MacBook, it will.
If an iTablet (Slate, whatever) and a wireless keyboard cost less than a MacBook, it will.
So I have a 13? MB with a real keyboard, great trackpad, 4GB RAM, at least a 250GB HDD and whole bunch of other things that allow for speed and usability, like ports. But a 7? or 10? tablet is going that has little to no ports, requires me to buy a keyboard mouse and some sort of stand and now can?t be used in my lap while typing excessively is somehow going to replace a full sized PC? I don?t think so. That doesn?t even get into the likelihood of no Mac app will run on the device.
Enough of this drivel about concerns for Steve's health!
Steve's saving grace has been his love of life and his personal drive to realize his dreams. His best bet (and ours) is to simply keep going as he sees fit and as he can.
Of course. Only brought it up because of what Scoble said as part of several bits of supposedly "inside" information.
There's no need for optical discs and moving parts. They truly are on the way out. They'll meet the same demise as floppy disks. Put movies and other content on chips, SD cards, etc.
The pipeline might not be there yet, but it's just a matter of time.
They are not on the way out. Many people, for the last three years, have predicted the demise of hard drives in iPods because it was obvious flash would soon fall in price making them obsolete. In case you haven't noticed, that hasn't happened nor is their any sign flash will ever be able to compete with or replace HDs.
So tell us, what is the current cost per GB of SD cards vs optical media?
They are not on the way out. Many people, for the last three years, have predicted the demise of hard drives in iPods because it was obvious flash would soon fall in price making them obsolete. In case you haven't noticed, that hasn't happened nor is their any sign flash will ever be able to compete with or replace HDs.
So tell us, what is the current cost per GB of SD cards vs optical media?
The HDD-based iPods have been obsolescing for some time. Apple no longer uses a 1? HDD. They went from offering single- and dual-platter 1.8? HDDs in the iPod Classic to just one 1.8? HDD. Note that they call it the Classic. The only benefit it still has is capacity, but that is not the only consideration for storage. There is speed, durability, power usage to name a few.
When the number of people buying iPod Classics drops to a point that makes it not worth the trouble they?ll drop it. The Classic still has about 100GB over the iPod Touch. If next year the Touch gets 128GB capacity and the Classic only gets 200GB then the Touch is getting awfully close to besting the Classic in the one thing area it had over other iPods: capacity. With the 3-bit NAND coming out a 50% increase will be possible with the name architecture. Add another shrinkage and you get double the capacity and that could happen within a couple years.
On the PC-side we are seeing SSDs as options. The size increase takes longer to come to SSDs than with other NAND due to the speed requirements, but it does come. HDDs are obsolescing in many areas of CE. That is a fact.
Leaving size, power usage, chances of mechanical failure and speed out of it, price a 9.5mm Blu-ray player and a single 25GB Blu-ray disc (for my Mac OS X restore disc) to an SD Card reader and a single 32GB SD card (though I only need an 8GB for my Mac OS X restore disc). Which one is cheaper?
I can?t see a tablet replacing any notebook as your main computer.
Agreed. Everybody is likely to need at least one computer (let's call it your MAIN computer) with a keyboard (etc) for quite some time yet. This however is not the interesting question.
The interesting question is: will the tablet be capable of replacing some folks' PORTABLE computers?
Now if your MAIN computer is a PORTABLE (ie a Macbook), then the question is moot (or "moo", as Joey Tribbiani would say)
However, if your MAIN computer is non-portable, then it starts to get interesting. (Keep in mind there are still lots of these people - laptops only just overtook desktop sales recently.)
For these folks, a primary consideration when purchasing a SECOND computer is that it is PORTABLE. It doesn't need to have all the power/storage/functionality of the MAIN computer, but it needs to be small enough to cart around - witness sales of netbooks in the last 2 years.
If various predictions about the capabilities of the tablet are correct, then it it very easy to see the tablet successfuly playing the role of this SECOND, PORTABLE computer for those whose MAIN computer is a desktop.
Make-sensical?
Everybody is likely to need at least one computer (let's call it your MAIN computer) with a keyboard (etc) for quite some time yet. This however is not the interesting question.
The interesting question is: will the tablet be capable of replacing some folks' PORTABLE computers?
I need a computer, with keyboard. I work in 5 different locations and sometimes type considerably. I'm also supporting Windows machines so need the same input devices (keyboard/mouse) when remotely managing them. But I'm in the upper 5% of demanding users, as most of us probably are.
I know several people who don't type much who could get away with no keyboard. Browsing the web, magazines, games, facebook, emails, etc. SO as you ask - could they use the tablet while out and about but still have a main machine when at home? Probably.
This raises some questions though.
1) could my sister and her husband get away with ONE iMac and 2 tablets? They could set up 2 different users on the iMac and sync all their important data (music, photos, documents, bookmarks.... same as the iPhone now except adding documents).
2) I presume the tablet needs some way of standing up if we're going to watch a film. So if my sister had a bluetooth keyboard/mouse at home connected to the tablet, with a tablet version of pages/numbers/keynote, when do they actually need their iMac? It does have a nice big screen and can run much more powerful applications... but is it required?
Further to #2...
* Could a tablet run an effective iPhoto? Create slideshows, add music, etc...? I presume faces would be a problem, but other than that?
* Could a tablet run iMovie? There are movie editors for the iPhone, but it's pretty limited. Is it enough?
* Could a tablet backup all your documents... to MobileMe or TimeCapsule or an external disk or 3rd party? I think it's highly possible.
* Could a tablet print effectively?
* Could a tablet sync its content to AppleTV directly? Or to an iPhone/iPod?
In essence... if Apple provides a full (redesigned) iLife & iWork on the tablet, with optional keyboard/mouse at home, and some form of network backup... PLUS all the apps like the iPhone has - how many people is that enough for?
I pretty much agree with you, I was simply bloviating on why I think they have not yet removed them and what conditions will be present for them to pull the trigger on their removal. The only thing I would like to point out where I do think your wrong is about slow internet speeds. There are areas in the us and around the world where there are wealthy people living in the country that are either on dial up or on satelite because other services are not available. How does that translate to not being in Apples target demographic? Is Apples demographic target only hip people in urban areas?
Any way I simply meant that people on dial up or with a severe bandwidth cap may be more reluctant to buy any machine with out a cd-rom even if the reality is that they don't need it.
I think that Apple being Apple will eventually remove them from notebooks regardless of any protests. My W.A.G is 18-24 months or sooner if Flash prices drop. To my way of thinking the price points are almost where it needs to be for flash memory cards to become "disposable".
I also believe that physical forms of media (dvd's etc) will be remain popular for most of the decade, but that certainly does not mean streaming and downloading will not continue to grow and become even more pervasive. As I said in another post there are certain factors that I believe will keep streaming or downloading from completely eliminating the physical media.
Just finished watching Doctor Who End of time Part 2 and wow that was good.
bloviating
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