as many have noted, the definition of "smartphone" used for this "study" is preposterous. it includes many phones that are primitive compared to "super" smartphones from Apple, Android, RIM, and Palm. ok throw in the WinMo phones even. and maybe one or two Nokia models.
One or two Nokia models? Have you ever heard "Symbian OS"?
This is what happens when you don't diversify. There is no reason for Apple not to have another version of the iPhone. I stated this years ago (the Razr staleness) that this will eventually hurt them as the cellphone market is extremely fickle and this exclusive AT&T lock-in only adds to the matter.
This does not surprise me at all. One of Apple's problems is they view the world from an insider's position. They are not out in the trenches, and I don't think they have a grasp as to what's really going on. They see sales numbers increase and they think that everything is great.
While the iPhone is a great product, and obviously started a whole new smart-phone revolution, it is no longer getting mind-share. Let me tell you - my kids and all their little friends talk all about the Droid and the "Google Phone" (they don't use the term Nexus One). Their biggest complaint about the iPhone? Lack of a physical keyboard. Kids are texting maniacs, and social this-n-that. The 2nd biggest complaint? AT&T. These are your future customers Apple, better pay attention.
On the other side of the coin are business users, and while the iPhone is awesome with Exchange support, companies still don't have enough control over the platform to seriously move forward with it in a big way.
Apple is now faced with the chore of bringing the iPhone back front and center. They've lost some mind-share, and need to get it back - specifications do matter to the buying masses. Time to get multitasking, a higher res. screen, and a front facing camera going on. Time to deploy on Verizon as well. And finally, a targeted marketing plan is needed that portrays the iPhone as "cool" to teens once again.
so i added the definition - runs a full web browser. that knocks out nearly all Nokia phones, many Blackberries, and most WinMo's.
You want to tell that iPhone runs a full web browser? Are you kidding me? Did you ever have a chance to touch any smartphone except iPhone? Or you just heard about them?
If Apple would make the iPhone just a silly 2mm (0.08") thicker it would have room for a a larger Li-Poly battery. Those things are really thin, and one the entire size of the iPhone would add nearly twice the capacity to what it already has. But no, thin is in I guess, and endurance plays second fiddle to thin.
Currently you're correct regarding overall sales but that is not likely to last for long, international sales are rapidly growing.
Consider Apples business model, currently they build one iPhone, they are all made in Asia somewhere, when a new iPhone comes out they have trouble matching demand, as it stands right now they place an order and the device can be shipped anywhere, your suggestion will split resources.
On top of that you will now have two iPhones on the Market, it will cause confusion, people will buy the phone and then in 1-2 years won't be able to move (remember most people see a phone as a phone, CDMA gsm etc means nothing to them) why split your product line.
I accept that America tends to move behind the rest of the world in terms of phones, it took America years to move to digital, years to bring out SMS and even longer to start accepting the gsm standard.
In a short sighted view you are correct, in the long term you are not and I bet apple is looking at the long term.
CDMA is concentrated in first world countries like US (over 50% of the market), Korea (2/3 of their market) and Japan (1/3 of their market).
It's the rabbit vs. turtle race. Guess what? The turtle always wins. It might have taken longer for the US to embrace mobile technology --- but the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
In Q4 2008 Apple's total mobile phone market share was 1.3% (by device number, which is the most broadly accepted measure). It may be closer to 2% now but I doubt it will be more. It is still essentially a niche player, albeit in the most profitable niche.
the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
So you are going to tell us about the whole Europe covered by 3G network? Or may be you want to tell us about MMS introduced by AT&T several month ago only? Or may be you to tell about working 4G network already implemented in Oslo and Stockholm? Or may be you to tell us about HSPA+ standard deployment?
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips
Good luck getting a sensible answer. American centrism dominates 50% of the population here. That half don't think outside the box ... or perhaps just don't think.
When Orange UK launched the iPhone late last rear they sold 30,000 on the first day, when Vodafone UK launched the iPhone earlier this year they sold 50,000 the first day.
I don't think Apple should be too worried about £99 PAYG phone's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jodyfanning
You are wrong because not all Nokia's smartphones are E or N series. There are plenty of S60 (Symbian) phones, i.e. 5800 touch phone, that are not included. Just get over it, Apple is a niche player.
Oh, and in Q4 Nokia's smartphone market share was up 5%. In UK you can now get a Nokia smartphone with free GPS voice navigation for less than 99 Pounds as pre-paid, no contract. Apple has a hard time competing with that.
but the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
Last time I checked, the US mobile penetration rate was 89% ... which is lower than ANY of the European countries. Note that most of Europe has the rate of at least 100% and many countries have 120% and more, and a few even 150% ...
Everyone uses all of Nokia's "convergence devices" - smartphones and mobile computers - in calculating their market share. Nokia also breaks out their Eseries and Nseries phones - 10.7 million this quarter, 8.9 million last quarter - which is their smart phones.
If someone thinks I am wrong - please point out why.
(excuse me if someone else has already posted this)
One problem is that we are comparing iPhone with a category that is really too broad. As the cost of simpleton-smartphones goes down, they are replacing older style phones as the default. But a tiny screen and no or limited apps ia hardly in the same class just because it can receive emails.
So I would not really worry about the stats here - until we see a comparison of phones that are really in the same class. I have no idea where these Nokia E & N -series phones are.
In the end, as an investor, I am more than happy with 100% year to year growth in the iPhone!
as many have noted, the definition of "smartphone" used for this "study" is preposterous. it includes many phones that are primitive compared to "super" smartphones from Apple, Android, RIM, and Palm. ok throw in the WinMo phones even. and maybe one or two Nokia models.
what is the definition for "super" smartphones? easy - they run a full web browser, not a dumbed-down "web" version. this was one of the big breakthroughs of the original iPhone in 2007. practically this requires a large touchscreen, but that need not be stated.
Full web browser? Well that knocks iPhone out.
You could atleast try the N900, it has the best mobile browser to date. It's also the first to recieve Mozilla Fennec.
This does not surprise me at all. One of Apple's problems is they view the world from an insider's position. They are not out in the trenches, and I don't think they have a grasp as to what's really going on. They see sales numbers increase and they think that everything is great.
While the iPhone is a great product, and obviously started a whole new smart-phone revolution, it is no longer getting mind-share. Let me tell you - my kids and all their little friends talk all about the Droid and the "Google Phone" (they don't use the term Nexus One). Their biggest complaint about the iPhone? Lack of a physical keyboard. Kids are texting maniacs, and social this-n-that. The 2nd biggest complaint? AT&T. These are your future customers Apple, better pay attention.
On the other side of the coin are business users, and while the iPhone is awesome with Exchange support, companies still don't have enough control over the platform to seriously move forward with it in a big way.
Apple is now faced with the chore of bringing the iPhone back front and center. They've lost some mind-share, and need to get it back - specifications do matter to the buying masses. Time to get multitasking, a higher res. screen, and a front facing camera going on. Time to deploy on Verizon as well. And finally, a targeted marketing plan is needed that portrays the iPhone as "cool" to teens once again.
couldn't have said it better. even my early early adopter (son) that has had every iPhone the day it came out says it's getting old. and time for a business phone, removable battery and second screen to type on (or multitask on)
The smartphone definition is definitely a problem if one wants to make it be so.
What is a "simpleton-smartphone?". What is a super-smartphone? I've asked this before, but haven't seen a real answer. What makes the iPhone a smartphone that no other phone is? A Big screen and an improved user interface doesn't really do that in my book (even though it's a brilliant improvement). That would be cherry picking the features for a smartphone from those that the iPhone happens to improve upon conveniently disregarding some that many others regard as crucial for a smartphone but are lacking in the iPhone.
iPhone is a game changer and making tons of profit, but are other vendors phones really that much worse than the iPhone in any other field except the perhaps the UI and Apple Store? How many of the most vocal iPhone worshippes have done any real world comparisons with current phones of more than one or two vendors with touch screens et al?
Some that have, don't seem to have a such a black and white view of the smartphone definion than is often posted.
So you are going to tell us about the whole Europe covered by 3G network? Or may be you want to tell us about MMS introduced by AT&T several month ago only? Or may be you to tell about working 4G network already implemented in Oslo and Stockholm? Or may be you to tell us about HSPA+ standard deployment?
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Which other 'first world' countries? (Btw, who's the 'second world' today?)
You should not make empirical statements about the real world based on children's stories.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasdarq
Last time I checked, the US mobile penetration rate was 89% ... which is lower than ANY of the European countries. Note that most of Europe has the rate of at least 100% and many countries have 120% and more, and a few even 150% ...
And your remarks about 3G are not even worth examining. Do some homework, but I think that there is no comprehensive study yet ...
Also, some anecdotal evidence for ya: a friend of mine from NY asked me back in 2003: "What's the sms"?
I specifically stated 3G penetration --- which the US (with a population of 300 million) has surpassed Europe's 5 largest countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain with a total population of 300 million) in 2008.
Then you look at SMS usage in the US --- which is publicly available information (the carriers will say in their quarterly filings that they carry x billion sms messages in the last 3 months). That's close to 12 sms every single day for every American --- a number that dwarfed European sms usage.
UK is the second largest texters in the world (behind the US) --- guess how many sms do Brits send every single day? Americans send 10 times more sms than the Brits.
So what if they have a couple of cities up in finland and sweden to have LTE. Verizon has LTE up in Boston and Seattle. None are commercialized yet because you can't buy LTE gears yet.
This is what happens when you don't diversify. There is no reason for Apple not to have another version of the iPhone. I stated this years ago (the Razr staleness) that this will eventually hurt them as the cellphone market is extremely fickle and this exclusive AT&T lock-in only adds to the matter.
You tell 'em Tek! This kind of thing doesn't happen to Palm et al...
Comments
as many have noted, the definition of "smartphone" used for this "study" is preposterous. it includes many phones that are primitive compared to "super" smartphones from Apple, Android, RIM, and Palm. ok throw in the WinMo phones even. and maybe one or two Nokia models.
One or two Nokia models? Have you ever heard "Symbian OS"?
While the iPhone is a great product, and obviously started a whole new smart-phone revolution, it is no longer getting mind-share. Let me tell you - my kids and all their little friends talk all about the Droid and the "Google Phone" (they don't use the term Nexus One). Their biggest complaint about the iPhone? Lack of a physical keyboard. Kids are texting maniacs, and social this-n-that. The 2nd biggest complaint? AT&T. These are your future customers Apple, better pay attention.
On the other side of the coin are business users, and while the iPhone is awesome with Exchange support, companies still don't have enough control over the platform to seriously move forward with it in a big way.
Apple is now faced with the chore of bringing the iPhone back front and center. They've lost some mind-share, and need to get it back - specifications do matter to the buying masses. Time to get multitasking, a higher res. screen, and a front facing camera going on. Time to deploy on Verizon as well. And finally, a targeted marketing plan is needed that portrays the iPhone as "cool" to teens once again.
One or two Nokia models? Have you ever heard "Symbian OS"?
so i added the definition - runs a full web browser. that knocks out nearly all Nokia phones, many Blackberries, and most WinMo's.
so i added the definition - runs a full web browser. that knocks out nearly all Nokia phones, many Blackberries, and most WinMo's.
You want to tell that iPhone runs a full web browser? Are you kidding me? Did you ever have a chance to touch any smartphone except iPhone? Or you just heard about them?
Currently you're correct regarding overall sales but that is not likely to last for long, international sales are rapidly growing.
Consider Apples business model, currently they build one iPhone, they are all made in Asia somewhere, when a new iPhone comes out they have trouble matching demand, as it stands right now they place an order and the device can be shipped anywhere, your suggestion will split resources.
On top of that you will now have two iPhones on the Market, it will cause confusion, people will buy the phone and then in 1-2 years won't be able to move (remember most people see a phone as a phone, CDMA gsm etc means nothing to them) why split your product line.
I accept that America tends to move behind the rest of the world in terms of phones, it took America years to move to digital, years to bring out SMS and even longer to start accepting the gsm standard.
In a short sighted view you are correct, in the long term you are not and I bet apple is looking at the long term.
CDMA is concentrated in first world countries like US (over 50% of the market), Korea (2/3 of their market) and Japan (1/3 of their market).
It's the rabbit vs. turtle race. Guess what? The turtle always wins. It might have taken longer for the US to embrace mobile technology --- but the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
So you are going to tell us about the whole Europe covered by 3G network? Or may be you want to tell us about MMS introduced by AT&T several month ago only? Or may be you to tell about working 4G network already implemented in Oslo and Stockholm? Or may be you to tell us about HSPA+ standard deployment?
Good luck getting a sensible answer. American centrism dominates 50% of the population here. That half don't think outside the box ... or perhaps just don't think.
CDMA is concentrated in first world countries like US (over 50% of the market), Korea (2/3 of their market) and Japan (1/3 of their market).
Which other 'first world' countries? (Btw, who's the 'second world' today?)
It's the rabbit vs. turtle race. Guess what? The turtle always wins.
You should not make empirical statements about the real world based on children's stories.
I don't think Apple should be too worried about £99 PAYG phone's.
You are wrong because not all Nokia's smartphones are E or N series. There are plenty of S60 (Symbian) phones, i.e. 5800 touch phone, that are not included. Just get over it, Apple is a niche player.
Oh, and in Q4 Nokia's smartphone market share was up 5%. In UK you can now get a Nokia smartphone with free GPS voice navigation for less than 99 Pounds as pre-paid, no contract. Apple has a hard time competing with that.
but the US has gone past Europeans in many metrics (3G penetration, SMS usage, real smartphone usage)...
Last time I checked, the US mobile penetration rate was 89% ... which is lower than ANY of the European countries. Note that most of Europe has the rate of at least 100% and many countries have 120% and more, and a few even 150% ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tors_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...f_the_Americas
And your remarks about 3G are not even worth examining. Do some homework, but I think that there is no comprehensive study yet ...
Also, some anecdotal evidence for ya: a friend of mine from NY asked me back in 2003: "What's the sms"?
Everyone uses all of Nokia's "convergence devices" - smartphones and mobile computers - in calculating their market share. Nokia also breaks out their Eseries and Nseries phones - 10.7 million this quarter, 8.9 million last quarter - which is their smart phones.
If someone thinks I am wrong - please point out why.
http://www.nokia.com/about-nokia/fin...mation/q4-2009
What was your reaction when Apple "claimed" to be the largest mobile device company in the world? They included MacBooks, iPods and iPhones.
One problem is that we are comparing iPhone with a category that is really too broad. As the cost of simpleton-smartphones goes down, they are replacing older style phones as the default. But a tiny screen and no or limited apps ia hardly in the same class just because it can receive emails.
So I would not really worry about the stats here - until we see a comparison of phones that are really in the same class. I have no idea where these Nokia E & N -series phones are.
In the end, as an investor, I am more than happy with 100% year to year growth in the iPhone!
as many have noted, the definition of "smartphone" used for this "study" is preposterous. it includes many phones that are primitive compared to "super" smartphones from Apple, Android, RIM, and Palm. ok throw in the WinMo phones even. and maybe one or two Nokia models.
what is the definition for "super" smartphones? easy - they run a full web browser, not a dumbed-down "web" version. this was one of the big breakthroughs of the original iPhone in 2007. practically this requires a large touchscreen, but that need not be stated.
Full web browser? Well that knocks iPhone out.
You could atleast try the N900, it has the best mobile browser to date. It's also the first to recieve Mozilla Fennec.
BTW, here's a *real* smartphone for you:
This does not surprise me at all. One of Apple's problems is they view the world from an insider's position. They are not out in the trenches, and I don't think they have a grasp as to what's really going on. They see sales numbers increase and they think that everything is great.
While the iPhone is a great product, and obviously started a whole new smart-phone revolution, it is no longer getting mind-share. Let me tell you - my kids and all their little friends talk all about the Droid and the "Google Phone" (they don't use the term Nexus One). Their biggest complaint about the iPhone? Lack of a physical keyboard. Kids are texting maniacs, and social this-n-that. The 2nd biggest complaint? AT&T. These are your future customers Apple, better pay attention.
On the other side of the coin are business users, and while the iPhone is awesome with Exchange support, companies still don't have enough control over the platform to seriously move forward with it in a big way.
Apple is now faced with the chore of bringing the iPhone back front and center. They've lost some mind-share, and need to get it back - specifications do matter to the buying masses. Time to get multitasking, a higher res. screen, and a front facing camera going on. Time to deploy on Verizon as well. And finally, a targeted marketing plan is needed that portrays the iPhone as "cool" to teens once again.
couldn't have said it better. even my early early adopter (son) that has had every iPhone the day it came out says it's getting old. and time for a business phone, removable battery and second screen to type on (or multitask on)
What is a "simpleton-smartphone?". What is a super-smartphone? I've asked this before, but haven't seen a real answer. What makes the iPhone a smartphone that no other phone is? A Big screen and an improved user interface doesn't really do that in my book (even though it's a brilliant improvement). That would be cherry picking the features for a smartphone from those that the iPhone happens to improve upon conveniently disregarding some that many others regard as crucial for a smartphone but are lacking in the iPhone.
iPhone is a game changer and making tons of profit, but are other vendors phones really that much worse than the iPhone in any other field except the perhaps the UI and Apple Store? How many of the most vocal iPhone worshippes have done any real world comparisons with current phones of more than one or two vendors with touch screens et al?
Some that have, don't seem to have a such a black and white view of the smartphone definion than is often posted.
Regs, Jarkko
So you are going to tell us about the whole Europe covered by 3G network? Or may be you want to tell us about MMS introduced by AT&T several month ago only? Or may be you to tell about working 4G network already implemented in Oslo and Stockholm? Or may be you to tell us about HSPA+ standard deployment?
Which other 'first world' countries? (Btw, who's the 'second world' today?)
You should not make empirical statements about the real world based on children's stories.
Last time I checked, the US mobile penetration rate was 89% ... which is lower than ANY of the European countries. Note that most of Europe has the rate of at least 100% and many countries have 120% and more, and a few even 150% ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tors_of_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...f_the_Americas
And your remarks about 3G are not even worth examining. Do some homework, but I think that there is no comprehensive study yet ...
Also, some anecdotal evidence for ya: a friend of mine from NY asked me back in 2003: "What's the sms"?
I specifically stated 3G penetration --- which the US (with a population of 300 million) has surpassed Europe's 5 largest countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain with a total population of 300 million) in 2008.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...090400776.html
Then you look at SMS usage in the US --- which is publicly available information (the carriers will say in their quarterly filings that they carry x billion sms messages in the last 3 months). That's close to 12 sms every single day for every American --- a number that dwarfed European sms usage.
http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/patterson/57781
UK is the second largest texters in the world (behind the US) --- guess how many sms do Brits send every single day? Americans send 10 times more sms than the Brits.
http://www.ofcom.org.uk/consumer/200...ommunications/
So what if they have a couple of cities up in finland and sweden to have LTE. Verizon has LTE up in Boston and Seattle. None are commercialized yet because you can't buy LTE gears yet.
This article misses a possible huge factor.
Does it take into account the number of clueless parents who went out at Christmas and bought non-Apple phones on a budget as presents?
This is what happens when you don't diversify. There is no reason for Apple not to have another version of the iPhone. I stated this years ago (the Razr staleness) that this will eventually hurt them as the cellphone market is extremely fickle and this exclusive AT&T lock-in only adds to the matter.
You tell 'em Tek! This kind of thing doesn't happen to Palm et al...