Verizon iPhone seen as 'unlikely' from Apple in 2010

Posted:
in Mac Software edited January 2014
Despite a new claim that Apple is working on a CDMA-capable iPhone for the Verizon network in the U.S., one prominent analyst has said such a move is "unlikely" to happen this year.



In his latest note to investors issued on Tuesday, analyst Maynard J. Um with UBS Investment Research acknowledged a report from The Wall Street Journal on Monday, which said Apple is working on two new iPhones, including one for the Verizon network. Sources told the paper that CDMA iPhones are not scheduled to go into mass production until September.



But Um said a Verizon launch probably won't happen this year. Instead, a CDMA phone could be launched with other carriers, such as China Telecom and KDDI of Japan.



As it has done every year, Apple will introduce a new iPhone model this summer. Um said checks with industry sources indicate the next-generation model could feature a touch panel on the back of the phone, which would allow touch capabilities on both sides of the device. The new iPhone could also offer high definition video playback and recording with a 5 megapixel camera, 64GB of NAND flash storage, increased battery life, an AMOLED screen and new applications.



The analyst also expects the new iPhones to be priced the same as the current iPhone 3GS offerings, at $199 and $299. The current iPhone 3GS is also expected to drop to $99 and replace the existing iPhone 3G at that price point.



UBS has maintained its 12-month price target of $280 for AAPL stock, and maintained its "buy" recommendation for investors.



Separately, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note Tuesday noting that a subsidized iPhone on the Verizon network would add 5 million to 6 million units of sales in the first year, or an estimated $3.6 billion in revenue and 75 cents earnings per share for Apple. But he also, like Um, added that a CDMA iPhone may first be targeted at China Telecom or KDDI before Verizon



Abramsky believes Apple's second phone reported by the Journal is likely a smaller iPhone with a retail price ranging from free to $99 subsidized. The analyst expects Apple to sell 2 million entry-level iPhones in its 2010 fiscal year, and another 12 million in 2011.



"The entry-level iPhone may lack the faster processor, larger NAND memory, higher resolution screen, front-facing video camera and other features of the premium iPhone," Abramsky wrote.



After the Journal story broke Monday evening, a number of other rumors about the next-generation iPhone surfaced. Daring Fireball's John Gruber issued a report stating the new handset will have an Apple A4 processor, a custom-built system-on-a-chip like is in the forthcoming iPad, as well as a 960x640 double-resolution display and a second, front-facing camera.



Gruber also reiterated information first reported by AppleInsider earlier this month, that Apple's iPhone OS 4.0 software will add multitasking support for third-party applications.



Separately Monday, Engadget also received an anonymous tip that the fourth-generation iPhone would be dubbed the 'iPhone HD," and would be announced on Tuesday, June 22. Previous speculation had pegged a possible iPhone announcement and Worldwide Developers Conference 2010 from June 28 through July 2.
«134

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 61
    -ag--ag- Posts: 123member
    It just doesnt make any sense seems though everyone else in the world is working on or towards 3G/4G cell technology.



    Seems like going to CDMA would be a step backwards in a way..... it would be like them implementing flash on the next gen iPhone.
  • Reply 2 of 61
    mrkoolaidmrkoolaid Posts: 106member
    When Apple builds I then I will believe it. I only believe after Apple unveils. Rumours are always just that with Apple. Until it's unveiled I am happy with what Apple presently offers. Never complain.
  • Reply 3 of 61
    ktappektappe Posts: 732member
    Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
  • Reply 4 of 61
    These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.
  • Reply 5 of 61
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 987member
    If I were Steve Jobs a Verizon iPhone is the last thing I'll ever do.



    I want to see Ivan Seidenberg running naked in the middle of Time Square with the phrase "I'm Apple's bitch" tattooed on his ass before considering a Verizon iPhone.



    Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.
  • Reply 6 of 61
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 5,632member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.



    Exactly. It is well known that Apple is one the easiest stocks to manipulate. Apple stock can move several dollars either way in one day of trading. That means really big bucks in short term profits.
  • Reply 7 of 61
    wprowewprowe Posts: 33member
    I'm personally betting iPhone won't come to Verizon until Verizon, AT&T and the other carriers all are on the same 4G LTE band. I can't see Apple making the necessary hardware and software changes that are required for Verizon's CDMA network given everyone's direction towards LTE 4G starting next year. The investment would be short lived and thus not really provide the return Apple would demand.



    The other hurdle is producing an LTE 4G iPhone that has a reliable fallback to some other technology if the user is not in an LTE enabled region much like the current device reverts back to AT&T's EDGE if not in a 3G GSM area. I don't know what they do in the EU and Asian countries. Perhaps GSM is widely available in those areas so a fallback isn't necessary.



    For the US, what would be the fallback for those on Verizon's network if you are not in an LTE service area? For AT&T, there is always 2G EDGE or 3G GSM. If Verizon's fallback is their CDMA, would Apple support that? Maybe if there was a dual-band chip that supported LTE/CDMA?



    is it possible that a Verizon iPhone for LTE could be coming sooner than we think? Just last week Verizon announced they will have 4G LTE coverage to 1/3rd of Americans this year and double that next year.
  • Reply 8 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ktappe View Post


    Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.



    From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.



    Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.



    If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.



    Not saying that it cannot happen, just noting the numbers involved.
  • Reply 9 of 61
    ghostface147ghostface147 Posts: 1,629member
    I believe that there will have to be some CDMA compatibility on an Verizon iPhone since there may be some areas that may not receive LTE reception. I may move to Verizon if they offer a noticeable cost savings monthly and I can talk and use data at the same time using LTE.
  • Reply 10 of 61
    I hate reading conflicting articles. Yes, Verizon iPhone. No, Verizon iPhone. As a Verizon customer I'm frustrated they won't offer me the phone I want. I'll stay with Verizon if they launch a new iPhone this summer, otherwise I'm jumping ship to AT&T when my contract is up is September. Yes, I've let Verizon know this will happen - I think they are fine with having less customers.
  • Reply 11 of 61
    orlandoorlando Posts: 601member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post


    From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.



    In countries where the iPhone went multi-carrier it did not result in a drop in prices or a reduction in subsidies for Apple.



    ---



    The latest AdMob statistics were released yesterday. In the US, Android is growing fast and has nearly caught up to the iPhone (engaget). Apple needs to go multi-carrier.
  • Reply 12 of 61
    jerseymacjerseymac Posts: 408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post


    These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.



    Isn't that the whole purpose of this website? To get advance notice of an upcoming product so you can buy the stock and make a quick profit?
  • Reply 13 of 61
    bdkennedy1bdkennedy1 Posts: 1,459member
    The Wall Street Journal isn't just some rumor site.



    But if they are wrong it could seriously damage their credibility.
  • Reply 14 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ... In his latest note to investors issued on Tuesday, analyst Maynard J. Um with UBS Investment Research ...



    ... said a lot of absolutely ridiculous things.



    None of this makes any sense or is even slightly likely IMO. Not only that, every rumour he mentions here is recycled. Touch panel on the back? Entry-level model? CDMA iPhone? All of the things Um mentions have been brought up several times before and thoroughly discounted by many.



    This guy is a complete idiot.



    I'm only surprised he didn't float the "iPhone nano" idea again.
  • Reply 15 of 61
    markbmarkb Posts: 153member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post


    Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.



    If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.



    I dont think the math quite works there.
  • Reply 16 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by markb View Post


    I dont think the math quite works there.



    Here's the math:



    # of iPhones Sold] x Subsidy Amount per iPhone = Total Subsidy Dollars



    10,000,000 x $300 = $3,000,000,000



    If the subsidy drops 33% to $200 then to still get $3,000,000,000 of subsidy dollars, divide the $3,000,000,000 by $200 = 15,000,000 iPhones (a 50% increase in the quantity sold - and this is just to stay even in total subsidy dollars.
  • Reply 17 of 61
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Orlando View Post


    In countries where the iPhone went multi-carrier it did not result in a drop in prices or a reduction in subsidies for Apple.



    ---



    The latest AdMob statistics were released yesterday. In the US, Android is growing fast and has nearly caught up to the iPhone (engaget). Apple needs to go multi-carrier.



    Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?
  • Reply 18 of 61
    MacProMacPro Posts: 16,938member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


    If I were Steve Jobs a Verizon iPhone is the last thing I'll ever do.



    I want to see Ivan Seidenberg running naked in the middle of Time Square with the phrase "I'm Apple's bitch" tattooed on his ass before considering a Verizon iPhone.



    Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.



    You should be in video marketing, great image you conjured there
  • Reply 19 of 61
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post


    From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.



    Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.



    If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.



    Not saying that it cannot happen, just noting the numbers involved.



    Apple has said outright on a earnings conference call that in countries where there are multiple iPhone carriers, they don't get a lower ASP for the iPhone. So I wouldn't be that quick to say that the subsidy from AT&T or Verizon drops.
  • Reply 20 of 61
    luisoluiso Posts: 10member
    I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
Sign In or Register to comment.