My money is on the 18 page review of the iPad at Ars. Maybe I'll be wrong but I bet these few reports are not going to amount to a widespread problem.
What you, SO and your ilk don't understand is that AI is a tech site for Apple enthusiasts. The community doesn't have to tolerate trolls that come here to spill vitriol on all things Apple. Your right to free speech is not guaranteed here.
Hopefully the Mods will realize the profound negative impact that you and SO (are you one and the same?) are having here. Why they have tolerated you all so long is a mystery to me.
I have been a user of both Apple and MS-centric computers and other operating systems. I have used the Apple II, the first computer I bought was the Apple Classic and have bought Apple computers since.
I have been an enthusiast for the iPhone (which I have handled but do not own one yet) for a number of reasons. A main reason is that I do not want to pay the exhorbitant ATT fees, especially the data plan. I am a great enthusiast of the iPad, even more so than the iPhone.
I should point out also that I have been accused of being a fanboi myself by a poster in the NY Times because of my scathing criticism of a poster there. To confess, I actually wrote a very sarcastic response to one of Spot On's post a few days ago. But, after spending hours to write it, I decided not to post it.
Here, TechStud has been one of those whose posts I have countered and criticized. However, there is a fine line between a criticism and personal attack. As much as I dot not agree with the many posts of TechStud, I actually criticized (one of my earlier posts) another overenthusiastic poster here for his/her personal attack of TechStud. This for example:
"... that you and SO (are you one and the same?) ..."
may also be considered a personal attack.
There is a classc play by Henrik Ibsen called "An Enemy of the People" which is relevant to the issue of differing perspectives. Literary critics have a different take on the play itself. The take home lesson I learned from "An Enemy of the People" is this:
What is true may be popular.
What is popular may not be true.
It may help us all if we read it. Let us not be so quick to burn the witches, like they used to do. Let us not be so quick to demonize all those who disagree with our own perspectices and those we hold dear.
If Apple Insider wnted to clean the forum threads, there are two simple things it can do:
Limit the number of posts per thread by each person
Limit the length of each post. [This post and quite a numbe of my posts would not be allowed.]
Discipline those who are prone to make personal attacks. [Assuming of course, the Moderators truly understanding the fine line that divides criticism/sarcasm from personal attack.]
Apple Insider may be hesitant to implement some of the above, for a number of reasons.
The Android line continuing to move upwards without a single dip (I could be wrong!) leads me to believe that users are satisfied with the Android experience and in turn, the apps they find in the Market. After all, the phone will only go so far without decent apps to back it up.[/QUOTE]
Here's an intersting graph:
Graph of the Week: Android market share UP, iPhone down
Anyway my point was that unless we see some new higher capacity batteries and cooler, more powerful processors, I suspect the iPad and iPhone have reached their technical limits in their present form factor. If they scale up in size, perhaps it will allow room for better cooling and more features.
Oh, and welcome to the forums BTW, a bit of a zoo unfortunately, even some long time posters can't seem to behave themselves.
Fortunately, batteries, processors, RAM, communications abilities, and screen technology all improve over time, making your entire point, I think, moot. For example, it seems pretty likely that next year's iPad will use a Cortex A9 or better processor core, increased RAM, and probably some improvement with the wireless communication. The screen may improve as well, or if not will certain get cheaper at the current specs allowing more money to be put into improving, shrinking, or making more efficient other components.
The current iPad is the beginning of an entire family of devices, not the end-all, be-all of what computing technology will ever deliver.
Google is flooding the market with plenty of phone models on multiple carriers. What else is new. I'd actually be impressed when they move past the 15% range.
Of course, June is just around the corner, which means a new iPhone and more Apple marketing surrounding it. It'll be easy to guess what happens next. And we're not even talking about a move to more carriers here.
I certainly hope Google is prepared to fight an uphill battle after Apple gains even more share post-June.
The point raised "actual questions and responses" -- is very valid for statistics involving customer choices or any perspective (involving human beings). If you ever listen to so-called reporters today, many of them tend to ask leading questions -- because they themselves are human beings and/or more likely just not trained to avoid injecting bias during an interview.
Apart from the point raised, there is also the issue of "random statistical sampling", and this is not simply about the size of the sample taken.
I do not have the source with me, but I read from somewhere that people in certain states either predominantly prefer the iPhone while people in some other states prefer the Android.
Even in controlled studies in biomedicine, e.g., randomized and placebo control drug testing undertaken by the drug industry, usually also scrutinized by committees in every participating department of universities and hospitals, the final "result", i.e., conclusion of the analysis of the study can still be manipulated by the drug or biotechnology company to present the best scenario for the efficacy of the drug -- because it is the company that performs the overall statistical analysis.
Drugs and biomedical devices undergo at least three levels of independent and controlled studies that were then further evaluated initially by a reviewer at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then by a committee at the FDA, and finally another higher ranking committee also in the FDA. And yet, after so many years (and billions and billions of dollars earned), there are quite of few of these drugs that are recalled.
It is not the number per se, but how the subjects were chosen. Note also that the wikipedia article was discussing the ideal situation, the perfect Gaussian Curve. Ir would be interesting to see how the distribution of the responses were, I bet it is not the "perfect bell"
How was the study conducted? By phone (landline and/or cell phone), in person? How many were contacted, and how many responded? And how many of those that responded by phone, refused to participate.
Were the question the same for all respondents? Were the choices for answers the same? Or, were responses qualitative and the one who conducted the survey decided how to categorize the response?
CGC
N.B. Just a curiosity, what would be the SD or SEM? And what is the N value used?
Sorry for having to post your entire post, but you're obfuscating the issue. A VAST majority of what is out there assumes the Normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution.
Of course on can keep raising concerns about any statistical sample. But we are not discussing something that's of PhD-degree-granting level of importance here; it's just a garden-variety survey, millions of which are done al the time. Nothing of great public policy or scientific significance.
For the types of questions they seem to have asked and the types of answers allowed for, it would seem that their margin of error for this sample size is ± ~5.5% (for a 95% significance level).
Sorry for having to post your entire post, but you're obfuscating the issue. A VAST majority of what is out there assumes the Normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution.
Of course on can keep raising concerns about any statistical sample. But we are not discussing something that's of PhD-degree-granting level of importance here; it's just a garden-variety survey, millions of which are done al the time. Nothing of great public policy or scientific significance.
For the types of questions they seem to have asked and the types of answers allowed for, it would seem that their margin of error for this sample size is ± ~5.5% (for a 95% significance level).
Where did you find info on the types of questions asked and the types of responses which were allowed?
The Android line continuing to move upwards without a single dip (I could be wrong!) leads me to believe that users are satisfied with the Android experience and in turn, the apps they find in the Market. After all, the phone will only go so far without decent apps to back it up.
Your conclusion may or may not be correct, but the market share growth alone does not support it.
I have been a user of both Apple and MS-centric computers and other operating systems. I have used the Apple II, the first computer I bought was the Apple Classic and have bought Apple computers since.
I have been an enthusiast for the iPhone (which I have handled but do not own one yet) for a number of reasons. A main reason is that I do not want to pay the exhorbitant ATT fees, especially the data plan. I am a great enthusiast of the iPad, even more so than the iPhone.
I should point out also that I have been accused of being a fanboi myself by a poster in the NY Times because of my scathing criticism of a poster there. To confess, I actually wrote a very sarcastic response to one of Spot On's post a few days ago. But, after spending hours to write it, I decided not to post it.
Here, TechStud has been one of those whose posts I have countered and criticized. However, there is a fine line between a criticism and personal attack. As much as I dot not agree with the many posts of TechStud, I actually criticized (one of my earlier posts) another overenthusiastic poster here for his/her personal attack of TechStud. This for example:
"... that you and SO (are you one and the same?) ..."
may also be considered a personal attack.
There is a classc play by Henrik Ibsen called "An Enemy of the People" which is relevant to the issue of differing perspectives. Literary critics have a different take on the play itself. The take home lesson I learned from "An Enemy of the People" is this:
What is true may be popular.
What is popular may not be true.
It may help us all if we read it. Let us not be so quick to burn the witches, like they used to do. Let us not be so quick to demonize all those who disagree with our own perspectices and those we hold dear.
If Apple Insider wnted to clean the forum threads, there are two simple things it can do:
Limit the number of posts per thread by each person
Limit the length of each post. [This post and quite a numbe of my posts would not be allowed.]
Discipline those who are prone to make personal attacks. [Assuming of course, the Moderators truly understanding the fine line that divides criticism/sarcasm from personal attack.]
Apple Insider may be hesitant to implement some of the above, for a number of reasons.
CGC
There seems to be confusion about what constitutes a personal attack.
An example of a personal attack would be if I called Josh an idiot or said that he is retarded with little meaning in his life for coming here simply to post vitriol about Apple on an Apple enthusiast web site.
Questioning whether Josh is or isn't Spot On or Tech Stud is relevant given their posting pattern and the fact that several banned posters have come back under new aliases. I don't go over to Thurott's website and shit all over their community. Asking him to go somewhere where he'll be appreciated is just some friendly advice. He's free to take it or ignore it.
If they post meaningful information I'm all for them. But simply coming and posting FUD or outright inaccuracies, (do you need Spot On examples because I've got them), and then claiming anyone who calls them on it is violating the posting guidelines is 'poisoning the well' and having a negative impact on the community here. You may feel differently but often times I come here and even after having not visited for a couple of days there'll be forums that haven't had any new posts. I've not seen that before in the 4 years I've been here. It seems to me that many users have given up and quit coming here.
Thanks for the support, but the fact is that supporting posts are just as off-topic as the silly attacks.
And this post of mine is also off-topic.
ISTM that those who attack other posters generate the majority of responses here - both by the folks who pile on with them, and by the person attacked, trying to defend himself.
Josh.B.
I was not exactly supporting you, if you read "in between" lines. To clarify, I definitely do not support most of TechStud's opinions, and yet I posted a response a long time ago -- more because I di not agree with personal attacks. I just used the personal attack on you here to point out the difference.
Criticisms, even creative sarcastic criticism are OK by my book. The statement:
"Apple is doomed."
is a classic sarcastic and very effective rebuttal to all those with knee-jerk dislike for Apple products.
English is not my native tongue, so I might not have been successful in expressing more accurately what I had in mind. So please do not take my prior post as an endorsement of many of your views.
For example, others have already pointed out the error of SpotOn (and your agreement with him) about the overheating issue with the iPad. So, there is no need for me to point it out again. The mistake that you did is that you assumed that Spot On has extensive experience with the iPad. However, based from the questions he was asking in other posts, that may not the case. To take SpotOn as an authority on the iPad performance therefore was a mistake and misleading:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn
Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) and iPhone (low battery life) that Apple has pushed the present hardware to it's technical limits with features..
and does not agree with what many who had more time to interact with the iPad experienced. Professional technology analysts/reviewers of major media (NY Times, Wall Street Journal, etc.), who were given the iPad before it was released, found no issue about the iPad overheadting. Even those who had croticism of the iPad indicated that the battery life of the Ipad was better than what Apple indicated. Among these professional reviewers, there was no report of overheating.
Considering that he was not an expert on the iPad (and based the above merely on anecdotal information, he then overreached and revealed his bias:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn
We may get new and improved iPhones soon, but I feel it won't be a radical change in new features unless the size increases a bit to accept a larger battery.
Apple has pressed the petal to the metal and there isn't any more...
In this sense, many here were correct to criticize SpotOn.
Your mistake was that you accepted SpotOn as an authority about the iPad, and went on to make your own speculations about the potentional shortcomings of the iPad.
You stted something to the effect. "I did not know that", i.e., about the overheating. And, went on to speculate how it would further overheat during the summer.
Your speculation would have been valid. However, it was based from a false premise. The false premise came from accepting SpotOn's allegations, which were not true, at least about the overheating.
In effect, that single post (in response to SpotOn's post) was evealing of how you come up with your own ideas and conclusions when presented certain information (rumors, etc.). At best, it would indicate your own bias. Or worse, that you are gullible? Or both? Gullible in the sense that you extended the error of SpotOn's allegations with your own speculation.
Others here therefore had a reason to criticize you. But, I was just put off by the personal attack.
For example, others have already pointed out the error of SpotOn (and your agreement with him) about the overheating issue with the iPad. So, there is no need for me to point it out again. The mistake that you did is that you assumed that Spot On has extensive experience with the iPad.
That is incorrect. I made no such assumption. I read the article he linked to. I made no assumptions about his experience with the iPad. Indeed, I believe that anecdotal personal experience is an unlikely path to the facts of any matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202
However, based from the questions he was asking in other posts, that may not the case. To take SpotOn as an authority on the iPad performance therefore was a mistake and misleading:
Again: I did not take SpotOn as an authority. Belief in the statement os of an authority, due to their status as an authority, is not something I commonly do. Indeed, I used to wear a button in college that said "Question Authority". I no longer wear the button, but it is something I stress to my kids.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202
Among these professional reviewers, there was no report of overheating.
And yet, despite the fact that the reviewers did not report it, it was reported.
That is kinda the reason why I question authority. Authorities do not have any monopoly on facts or truth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202
Your mistake was that you accepted SpotOn as an authority about the iPad,
Please stop posting untrue things about me. In fact, please stop posting ANYTHING about me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202
Your speculation would have been valid. However, it was based from a false premise. The false premise came from accepting SpotOn's allegations, which were not true, at least about the overheating.
Please cut it out. I read an article that was linked to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202
In effect, that single post (in response to SpotOn's post) was evealing of how you come up with your own ideas and conclusions when presented certain information (rumors, etc.). At best, it would indicate your own bias. Or worse, that you are gullible? Or both? Gullible in the sense that you extended the error of SpotOn's allegations with your own speculation.
At this point I would very much like to tell you what I think of you personally, but I would rather not violate forum rules.
I guess you missed the part of the report that pleaded: "Just ignore the MASSIVE GULF that exists between the two."
Right?!
I wonder if they are also counting the iPhone OS on the iPod Touch, or just the iPhone.
The projection shows Android overtaking in mid 2011. I would expect it to be faster than that considering that Android is free, cheap and available to all HW vendors. What I don't expect is Apple giving a damn about the marketshare of the smartphone market they reinvigorated. Their focus is always on increasing sales, thus increasing profit.
More than likely, we may agree on more issues that I would with SpotOn or JoshB, and definitely, TechStud. Nonethless, I have come to their defense, when those we do not agree with were attacked personally.
Indeed, there seems to be consufion. And that is where our own standards come into play.
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac
There seems to be confusion about what constitutes a personal attack.
An example of a personal attack would be if I called Josh an idiot or said that he is retarded with little meaning in his life for coming here simply to post vitriol about Apple on an Apple enthusiast web site.
If you read my other clarification post, responding to JoshB, mistaking my defense as support. I raised the issue of gullibility and bias. Were they personal attacks? I will let you decide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac
Questioning whether Josh is or isn't Spot On or Tech Stud is relevant given their posting pattern and the fact that several banned posters have come back under new aliases. I don't go over to Thurott's website and shit all over their community. Asking him to go somewhere where he'll be appreciated is just some friendly advice. He's free to take it or ignore it.
I pointed this out specifically because it is a classic case of defamation of character by association. This is used a lot in political campaigns and many heated social debates. This is quite effective because many who use it deliverately know that many people do not really do their own research, and their opinion about another person may be affect by how they view the other perosn they have been accused to be associated with.
It may or may not be true but we must not raise it, unless we have proof. However, even if we have proof, it is not germane to exchange of ideas. They must be criticized based on the argument they present.
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac
If they post meaningful information I'm all for them. But simply coming and posting FUD or outright inaccuracies, (do you need Spot On examples because I've got them), and then claiming anyone who calls them on it is violating the posting guidelines is 'poisoning the well' and having a negative impact on the community here. You may feel differently but often times I come here and even after having not visited for a couple of days there'll be forums that haven't had any new posts. I've not seen that before in the 4 years I've been here. It seems to me that many users have given up and quit coming here.
Indeed, it can be very frustrating. I confessed for example that I have writtern a very scathing criticism of some "misinformation" that SpotOn kept on repeating here. It took me hours to prepare it because I had to research some stuff I am not too clear about. In the end though, I decided not to post it here.
I have grappled with the same issues for much much longer because I am interested with creating sites where there should be exchane of ideas. Banning, placing people in our ignore list not talking to people, etc. are not necessarily the answer. I benefited for example with my exchanges with people whose views may be diametrically opposed to my own. Then, tefore are times when it may be most prudent just to keep quiet.
I proposed some measures that Apple Insider may take above. I am not sure they will follow it though much like other media, even the NY Times (and other popular internet sites), welcome controversy. It increases the hits and visits.
I know, I just do not know where to find the WYSIWYG tool to add the TM.
To confess: When Apple was in dire straigths in the 1990s, I really worried what I would use as my personal computer if they did go under at the time. So, I bought a second hand Mac computer because I know they last like forever. Except for the monitor, the 1996 computer itself was working when I visited my place in Louisiana in late 2007. My second generation 1998(?) iMac is still working. My G4 iBook (more than six years) is still my main computer since it is still working but I am tempted to buy the new netbook pro when it comes out. I am missing so much already.
I tend to buy the second generation version of Apple prodcuts, and is holding out for this reason with respect to the the iPad, but I might end up breaking my rule this time. I hopee not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I guess you missed the part of the report that pleaded: "Just ignore the MASSIVE GULF that exists between the two."
Your observation reminds me of Sigmoidal curves. However, as you stated I may obfuscate the issue again. Many here may not fully appreciate the impact of Sigmoidal curves and how it affects projections and the danger of comparing growth rates -- especially if two growing populations are not in the same stage in their respective sigmoidal curves.
Geeeez! OK kiddies, let's review our statistical analysis:
margin of error is calculated against potential for survey error, and survey population representation of the larger population. You can have a smaller sample profile as long as it is effectively representative of the larger population it extrapolates to. If your survey is flawed it increases the margin of error outside of the issue of representation. However, you cannot do a detailed statistical representation of the survey population outside of general data points due to increasing variance as you separate down the individual population. So you could not, for example use the detail "X% of users prefer the keyboard of the Blackberry to the keyboard of the Nokia N97 when you have only one respondent providing the data point. You can report, that of the users surveyed X% indicated this, but not call that out as indicative of the larger population.
But if they were that unsatisfied, then why aren't they jumping ship? While I agree it's not a light decision to make, it does become easy if you look at it from a cost perspective. Pay the ETF and then sell the current phone to help finance one you do like (and lose ~$175 - $350), or stick with the contract and be both unhappy and $2K+ poorer at the end of it.
I see three main reasons new users are picking Android:
1. Advertising through media or via a friend who has an Android device. A satisfied Android user will obviously tell their friends to consider an Android device. Helps even more if the new user gets to play with a non-store model device. A dissatisfied user will tell their friends to stay away. Since Android is growing, I'll let you arrive at the general conclusion here (hint: more users are satisfied).
2. Wanting to stay with the same carrier. Verizon has the biggest, most mature coverage. Spirit is the first to start rolling out 4G coverage and has the best priced packages. Or all their friends are on the same network and we get free in-network perks. AT&T isn't on the list because then you'd obviously want to get an iPhone.
3. They simply did one of those 30 day trials and found that they loved the device and their experience and kept it.
The carrier offers BOGOs or other incentives to drive adoption and move users from another carrier to their own. Why do you think RIMM saw such a nice jump in marketshare? They BOGO'd their handsets for the carriers for a quarter or two. Verizon, Sprint and TMobile all are competing not so much against ATT at the moment, but the iPhone, so any new face handset will get extra care and incentives to grow carrier customers, even if they take an initial "loss" on the handset itself.
The first generations of iPhone users were drawn mostly from existing ATT customers who were smartphone users, or marginally interested, and Apple customers. Once that population was saturated, the draw came from international expansion by Apple, and bleed off from other carriers once the reputation of the iPhone was established. Now you have those more hard-core carrier loyalists who have friends with iPhones who are immensely satisfied with them, making them decide between staying with their preferred carrier or get a smartphone that really works well.
What you see mostly in the increasing Android marketshare are continued bleed-off from marginalized handsets by those that want to stay with their current carrier. It has been reported that the whole smartphone marketshare is growing significantly, drawing more people into it from the dumbphone marketshare. This rising tide raises the entire smartphone marketshare, Android included.
Comments
just go. You're not going to like it here. I offer this advice in spirit of friendship and cooperation.
We talk about macs here and generally like apple stuff.
Try this place.
<plonk>
No I won't be apologizing.
My money is on the 18 page review of the iPad at Ars. Maybe I'll be wrong but I bet these few reports are not going to amount to a widespread problem.
What you, SO and your ilk don't understand is that AI is a tech site for Apple enthusiasts. The community doesn't have to tolerate trolls that come here to spill vitriol on all things Apple. Your right to free speech is not guaranteed here.
Hopefully the Mods will realize the profound negative impact that you and SO (are you one and the same?) are having here. Why they have tolerated you all so long is a mystery to me.
I have been a user of both Apple and MS-centric computers and other operating systems. I have used the Apple II, the first computer I bought was the Apple Classic and have bought Apple computers since.
I have been an enthusiast for the iPhone (which I have handled but do not own one yet) for a number of reasons. A main reason is that I do not want to pay the exhorbitant ATT fees, especially the data plan. I am a great enthusiast of the iPad, even more so than the iPhone.
I should point out also that I have been accused of being a fanboi myself by a poster in the NY Times because of my scathing criticism of a poster there. To confess, I actually wrote a very sarcastic response to one of Spot On's post a few days ago. But, after spending hours to write it, I decided not to post it.
Here, TechStud has been one of those whose posts I have countered and criticized. However, there is a fine line between a criticism and personal attack. As much as I dot not agree with the many posts of TechStud, I actually criticized (one of my earlier posts) another overenthusiastic poster here for his/her personal attack of TechStud. This for example:
"... that you and SO (are you one and the same?) ..."
may also be considered a personal attack.
There is a classc play by Henrik Ibsen called "An Enemy of the People" which is relevant to the issue of differing perspectives. Literary critics have a different take on the play itself. The take home lesson I learned from "An Enemy of the People" is this:
What is true may be popular.
What is popular may not be true.
It may help us all if we read it. Let us not be so quick to burn the witches, like they used to do. Let us not be so quick to demonize all those who disagree with our own perspectices and those we hold dear.
If Apple Insider wnted to clean the forum threads, there are two simple things it can do:
Limit the number of posts per thread by each person
Limit the length of each post. [This post and quite a numbe of my posts would not be allowed.]
Discipline those who are prone to make personal attacks. [Assuming of course, the Moderators truly understanding the fine line that divides criticism/sarcasm from personal attack.]
Apple Insider may be hesitant to implement some of the above, for a number of reasons.
CGC
The Android line continuing to move upwards without a single dip (I could be wrong!) leads me to believe that users are satisfied with the Android experience and in turn, the apps they find in the Market. After all, the phone will only go so far without decent apps to back it up.[/QUOTE]
Here's an intersting graph:
Graph of the Week: Android market share UP, iPhone down
http://www.eurodroid.com/2010/03/gra...p-iphone-down/
Apparently enough to warrant press and Apple issuing a support document.
The low signal wifi issue could be a problem when one roams with the device, as Apple blames the router for the trouble.
http://www.itp.net/579897-apple-admi...-with-the-ipad
http://support.apple.com/kb/TS3304
The heat issue has to do a lot with the sun and warm climates.
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-31747_7-20001749-243.html
Anyway my point was that unless we see some new higher capacity batteries and cooler, more powerful processors, I suspect the iPad and iPhone have reached their technical limits in their present form factor. If they scale up in size, perhaps it will allow room for better cooling and more features.
Oh, and welcome to the forums BTW, a bit of a zoo unfortunately, even some long time posters can't seem to behave themselves.
Fortunately, batteries, processors, RAM, communications abilities, and screen technology all improve over time, making your entire point, I think, moot. For example, it seems pretty likely that next year's iPad will use a Cortex A9 or better processor core, increased RAM, and probably some improvement with the wireless communication. The screen may improve as well, or if not will certain get cheaper at the current specs allowing more money to be put into improving, shrinking, or making more efficient other components.
The current iPad is the beginning of an entire family of devices, not the end-all, be-all of what computing technology will ever deliver.
Here's an intersting graph:
Graph of the Week: Android market share UP, iPhone down
http://www.eurodroid.com/2010/03/gra...p-iphone-down/
Google is flooding the market with plenty of phone models on multiple carriers. What else is new. I'd actually be impressed when they move past the 15% range.
Of course, June is just around the corner, which means a new iPhone and more Apple marketing surrounding it. It'll be easy to guess what happens next. And we're not even talking about a move to more carriers here.
I certainly hope Google is prepared to fight an uphill battle after Apple gains even more share post-June.
The point raised "actual questions and responses" -- is very valid for statistics involving customer choices or any perspective (involving human beings). If you ever listen to so-called reporters today, many of them tend to ask leading questions -- because they themselves are human beings and/or more likely just not trained to avoid injecting bias during an interview.
Apart from the point raised, there is also the issue of "random statistical sampling", and this is not simply about the size of the sample taken.
I do not have the source with me, but I read from somewhere that people in certain states either predominantly prefer the iPhone while people in some other states prefer the Android.
Even in controlled studies in biomedicine, e.g., randomized and placebo control drug testing undertaken by the drug industry, usually also scrutinized by committees in every participating department of universities and hospitals, the final "result", i.e., conclusion of the analysis of the study can still be manipulated by the drug or biotechnology company to present the best scenario for the efficacy of the drug -- because it is the company that performs the overall statistical analysis.
Drugs and biomedical devices undergo at least three levels of independent and controlled studies that were then further evaluated initially by a reviewer at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then by a committee at the FDA, and finally another higher ranking committee also in the FDA. And yet, after so many years (and billions and billions of dollars earned), there are quite of few of these drugs that are recalled.
It is not the number per se, but how the subjects were chosen. Note also that the wikipedia article was discussing the ideal situation, the perfect Gaussian Curve. Ir would be interesting to see how the distribution of the responses were, I bet it is not the "perfect bell"
How was the study conducted? By phone (landline and/or cell phone), in person? How many were contacted, and how many responded? And how many of those that responded by phone, refused to participate.
Were the question the same for all respondents? Were the choices for answers the same? Or, were responses qualitative and the one who conducted the survey decided how to categorize the response?
CGC
N.B. Just a curiosity, what would be the SD or SEM? And what is the N value used?
Sorry for having to post your entire post, but you're obfuscating the issue. A VAST majority of what is out there assumes the Normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution.
Of course on can keep raising concerns about any statistical sample. But we are not discussing something that's of PhD-degree-granting level of importance here; it's just a garden-variety survey, millions of which are done al the time. Nothing of great public policy or scientific significance.
For the types of questions they seem to have asked and the types of answers allowed for, it would seem that their margin of error for this sample size is ± ~5.5% (for a 95% significance level).
Sorry for having to post your entire post, but you're obfuscating the issue. A VAST majority of what is out there assumes the Normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution.
Of course on can keep raising concerns about any statistical sample. But we are not discussing something that's of PhD-degree-granting level of importance here; it's just a garden-variety survey, millions of which are done al the time. Nothing of great public policy or scientific significance.
For the types of questions they seem to have asked and the types of answers allowed for, it would seem that their margin of error for this sample size is ± ~5.5% (for a 95% significance level).
Where did you find info on the types of questions asked and the types of responses which were allowed?
The Android line continuing to move upwards without a single dip (I could be wrong!) leads me to believe that users are satisfied with the Android experience and in turn, the apps they find in the Market. After all, the phone will only go so far without decent apps to back it up.
Your conclusion may or may not be correct, but the market share growth alone does not support it.
I have been a user of both Apple and MS-centric computers and other operating systems. I have used the Apple II, the first computer I bought was the Apple Classic and have bought Apple computers since.
I have been an enthusiast for the iPhone (which I have handled but do not own one yet) for a number of reasons. A main reason is that I do not want to pay the exhorbitant ATT fees, especially the data plan. I am a great enthusiast of the iPad, even more so than the iPhone.
I should point out also that I have been accused of being a fanboi myself by a poster in the NY Times because of my scathing criticism of a poster there. To confess, I actually wrote a very sarcastic response to one of Spot On's post a few days ago. But, after spending hours to write it, I decided not to post it.
Here, TechStud has been one of those whose posts I have countered and criticized. However, there is a fine line between a criticism and personal attack. As much as I dot not agree with the many posts of TechStud, I actually criticized (one of my earlier posts) another overenthusiastic poster here for his/her personal attack of TechStud. This for example:
"... that you and SO (are you one and the same?) ..."
may also be considered a personal attack.
There is a classc play by Henrik Ibsen called "An Enemy of the People" which is relevant to the issue of differing perspectives. Literary critics have a different take on the play itself. The take home lesson I learned from "An Enemy of the People" is this:
What is true may be popular.
What is popular may not be true.
It may help us all if we read it. Let us not be so quick to burn the witches, like they used to do. Let us not be so quick to demonize all those who disagree with our own perspectices and those we hold dear.
If Apple Insider wnted to clean the forum threads, there are two simple things it can do:
Limit the number of posts per thread by each person
Limit the length of each post. [This post and quite a numbe of my posts would not be allowed.]
Discipline those who are prone to make personal attacks. [Assuming of course, the Moderators truly understanding the fine line that divides criticism/sarcasm from personal attack.]
Apple Insider may be hesitant to implement some of the above, for a number of reasons.
CGC
There seems to be confusion about what constitutes a personal attack.
An example of a personal attack would be if I called Josh an idiot or said that he is retarded with little meaning in his life for coming here simply to post vitriol about Apple on an Apple enthusiast web site.
Questioning whether Josh is or isn't Spot On or Tech Stud is relevant given their posting pattern and the fact that several banned posters have come back under new aliases. I don't go over to Thurott's website and shit all over their community. Asking him to go somewhere where he'll be appreciated is just some friendly advice. He's free to take it or ignore it.
If they post meaningful information I'm all for them. But simply coming and posting FUD or outright inaccuracies, (do you need Spot On examples because I've got them), and then claiming anyone who calls them on it is violating the posting guidelines is 'poisoning the well' and having a negative impact on the community here. You may feel differently but often times I come here and even after having not visited for a couple of days there'll be forums that haven't had any new posts. I've not seen that before in the 4 years I've been here. It seems to me that many users have given up and quit coming here.
Thanks for the support, but the fact is that supporting posts are just as off-topic as the silly attacks.
And this post of mine is also off-topic.
ISTM that those who attack other posters generate the majority of responses here - both by the folks who pile on with them, and by the person attacked, trying to defend himself.
Josh.B.
I was not exactly supporting you, if you read "in between" lines. To clarify, I definitely do not support most of TechStud's opinions, and yet I posted a response a long time ago -- more because I di not agree with personal attacks. I just used the personal attack on you here to point out the difference.
Criticisms, even creative sarcastic criticism are OK by my book. The statement:
"Apple is doomed."
is a classic sarcastic and very effective rebuttal to all those with knee-jerk dislike for Apple products.
English is not my native tongue, so I might not have been successful in expressing more accurately what I had in mind. So please do not take my prior post as an endorsement of many of your views.
For example, others have already pointed out the error of SpotOn (and your agreement with him) about the overheating issue with the iPad. So, there is no need for me to point it out again. The mistake that you did is that you assumed that Spot On has extensive experience with the iPad. However, based from the questions he was asking in other posts, that may not the case. To take SpotOn as an authority on the iPad performance therefore was a mistake and misleading:
Originally Posted by SpotOn
Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) and iPhone (low battery life) that Apple has pushed the present hardware to it's technical limits with features..
and does not agree with what many who had more time to interact with the iPad experienced. Professional technology analysts/reviewers of major media (NY Times, Wall Street Journal, etc.), who were given the iPad before it was released, found no issue about the iPad overheadting. Even those who had croticism of the iPad indicated that the battery life of the Ipad was better than what Apple indicated. Among these professional reviewers, there was no report of overheating.
Considering that he was not an expert on the iPad (and based the above merely on anecdotal information, he then overreached and revealed his bias:
Originally Posted by SpotOn
We may get new and improved iPhones soon, but I feel it won't be a radical change in new features unless the size increases a bit to accept a larger battery.
Apple has pressed the petal to the metal and there isn't any more...
In this sense, many here were correct to criticize SpotOn.
Your mistake was that you accepted SpotOn as an authority about the iPad, and went on to make your own speculations about the potentional shortcomings of the iPad.
You stted something to the effect. "I did not know that", i.e., about the overheating. And, went on to speculate how it would further overheat during the summer.
Your speculation would have been valid. However, it was based from a false premise. The false premise came from accepting SpotOn's allegations, which were not true, at least about the overheating.
In effect, that single post (in response to SpotOn's post) was evealing of how you come up with your own ideas and conclusions when presented certain information (rumors, etc.). At best, it would indicate your own bias. Or worse, that you are gullible? Or both? Gullible in the sense that you extended the error of SpotOn's allegations with your own speculation.
Others here therefore had a reason to criticize you. But, I was just put off by the personal attack.
CGC
Another thread ruined by SpotOn/MacTripper and Josh.B./iGenius. When you reply to trolls the terrorists win.
Here's an intersting graph:
Graph of the Week: Android market share UP, iPhone down
http://www.eurodroid.com/2010/03/gra...p-iphone-down/
The statement:
"Apple is doomed."
is a classic sarcastic and very effective rebuttal......
No, no, no. Only true if:
Apple is doomed.?
Josh.B.
For example, others have already pointed out the error of SpotOn (and your agreement with him) about the overheating issue with the iPad. So, there is no need for me to point it out again. The mistake that you did is that you assumed that Spot On has extensive experience with the iPad.
That is incorrect. I made no such assumption. I read the article he linked to. I made no assumptions about his experience with the iPad. Indeed, I believe that anecdotal personal experience is an unlikely path to the facts of any matter.
However, based from the questions he was asking in other posts, that may not the case. To take SpotOn as an authority on the iPad performance therefore was a mistake and misleading:
Again: I did not take SpotOn as an authority. Belief in the statement os of an authority, due to their status as an authority, is not something I commonly do. Indeed, I used to wear a button in college that said "Question Authority". I no longer wear the button, but it is something I stress to my kids.
Among these professional reviewers, there was no report of overheating.
And yet, despite the fact that the reviewers did not report it, it was reported.
That is kinda the reason why I question authority. Authorities do not have any monopoly on facts or truth.
Your mistake was that you accepted SpotOn as an authority about the iPad,
Please stop posting untrue things about me. In fact, please stop posting ANYTHING about me.
Your speculation would have been valid. However, it was based from a false premise. The false premise came from accepting SpotOn's allegations, which were not true, at least about the overheating.
Please cut it out. I read an article that was linked to.
In effect, that single post (in response to SpotOn's post) was evealing of how you come up with your own ideas and conclusions when presented certain information (rumors, etc.). At best, it would indicate your own bias. Or worse, that you are gullible? Or both? Gullible in the sense that you extended the error of SpotOn's allegations with your own speculation.
At this point I would very much like to tell you what I think of you personally, but I would rather not violate forum rules.
Please leave me the hell alone.
Right?!
I wonder if they are also counting the iPhone OS on the iPod Touch, or just the iPhone.
The projection shows Android overtaking in mid 2011. I would expect it to be faster than that considering that Android is free, cheap and available to all HW vendors. What I don't expect is Apple giving a damn about the marketshare of the smartphone market they reinvigorated. Their focus is always on increasing sales, thus increasing profit.
No, I read that. Why do you think I missed it? And besides, it is pretty much common knowledge.
More than likely, we may agree on more issues that I would with SpotOn or JoshB, and definitely, TechStud. Nonethless, I have come to their defense, when those we do not agree with were attacked personally.
Indeed, there seems to be consufion. And that is where our own standards come into play.
There seems to be confusion about what constitutes a personal attack.
An example of a personal attack would be if I called Josh an idiot or said that he is retarded with little meaning in his life for coming here simply to post vitriol about Apple on an Apple enthusiast web site.
If you read my other clarification post, responding to JoshB, mistaking my defense as support. I raised the issue of gullibility and bias. Were they personal attacks? I will let you decide.
Questioning whether Josh is or isn't Spot On or Tech Stud is relevant given their posting pattern and the fact that several banned posters have come back under new aliases. I don't go over to Thurott's website and shit all over their community. Asking him to go somewhere where he'll be appreciated is just some friendly advice. He's free to take it or ignore it.
I pointed this out specifically because it is a classic case of defamation of character by association. This is used a lot in political campaigns and many heated social debates. This is quite effective because many who use it deliverately know that many people do not really do their own research, and their opinion about another person may be affect by how they view the other perosn they have been accused to be associated with.
It may or may not be true but we must not raise it, unless we have proof. However, even if we have proof, it is not germane to exchange of ideas. They must be criticized based on the argument they present.
If they post meaningful information I'm all for them. But simply coming and posting FUD or outright inaccuracies, (do you need Spot On examples because I've got them), and then claiming anyone who calls them on it is violating the posting guidelines is 'poisoning the well' and having a negative impact on the community here. You may feel differently but often times I come here and even after having not visited for a couple of days there'll be forums that haven't had any new posts. I've not seen that before in the 4 years I've been here. It seems to me that many users have given up and quit coming here.
Indeed, it can be very frustrating. I confessed for example that I have writtern a very scathing criticism of some "misinformation" that SpotOn kept on repeating here. It took me hours to prepare it because I had to research some stuff I am not too clear about. In the end though, I decided not to post it here.
I have grappled with the same issues for much much longer because I am interested with creating sites where there should be exchane of ideas. Banning, placing people in our ignore list not talking to people, etc. are not necessarily the answer. I benefited for example with my exchanges with people whose views may be diametrically opposed to my own. Then, tefore are times when it may be most prudent just to keep quiet.
I proposed some measures that Apple Insider may take above. I am not sure they will follow it though much like other media, even the NY Times (and other popular internet sites), welcome controversy. It increases the hits and visits.
CGC
No, no, no. Only true if:
Apple is doomed.™
anantksundaram,
I know, I just do not know where to find the WYSIWYG tool to add the TM.
To confess: When Apple was in dire straigths in the 1990s, I really worried what I would use as my personal computer if they did go under at the time. So, I bought a second hand Mac computer because I know they last like forever. Except for the monitor, the 1996 computer itself was working when I visited my place in Louisiana in late 2007. My second generation 1998(?) iMac is still working. My G4 iBook (more than six years) is still my main computer since it is still working but I am tempted to buy the new netbook pro when it comes out. I am missing so much already.
I tend to buy the second generation version of Apple prodcuts, and is holding out for this reason with respect to the the iPad, but I might end up breaking my rule this time. I hopee not.
Your observation reminds me of Sigmoidal curves. However, as you stated I may obfuscate the issue again. Many here may not fully appreciate the impact of Sigmoidal curves and how it affects projections and the danger of comparing growth rates -- especially if two growing populations are not in the same stage in their respective sigmoidal curves.
CGC
It would help to learn something about basic 'margin of error' calculations given sample size (it is not a command, just a wish).
310 is a decent number.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Geeeez! OK kiddies, let's review our statistical analysis:
margin of error is calculated against potential for survey error, and survey population representation of the larger population. You can have a smaller sample profile as long as it is effectively representative of the larger population it extrapolates to. If your survey is flawed it increases the margin of error outside of the issue of representation. However, you cannot do a detailed statistical representation of the survey population outside of general data points due to increasing variance as you separate down the individual population. So you could not, for example use the detail "X% of users prefer the keyboard of the Blackberry to the keyboard of the Nokia N97 when you have only one respondent providing the data point. You can report, that of the users surveyed X% indicated this, but not call that out as indicative of the larger population.
Clear? Good - quiz on Friday. Class dismissed.
But if they were that unsatisfied, then why aren't they jumping ship? While I agree it's not a light decision to make, it does become easy if you look at it from a cost perspective. Pay the ETF and then sell the current phone to help finance one you do like (and lose ~$175 - $350), or stick with the contract and be both unhappy and $2K+ poorer at the end of it.
I see three main reasons new users are picking Android:
1. Advertising through media or via a friend who has an Android device. A satisfied Android user will obviously tell their friends to consider an Android device. Helps even more if the new user gets to play with a non-store model device. A dissatisfied user will tell their friends to stay away. Since Android is growing, I'll let you arrive at the general conclusion here (hint: more users are satisfied).
2. Wanting to stay with the same carrier. Verizon has the biggest, most mature coverage. Spirit is the first to start rolling out 4G coverage and has the best priced packages. Or all their friends are on the same network and we get free in-network perks. AT&T isn't on the list because then you'd obviously want to get an iPhone.
3. They simply did one of those 30 day trials and found that they loved the device and their experience and kept it.
The carrier offers BOGOs or other incentives to drive adoption and move users from another carrier to their own. Why do you think RIMM saw such a nice jump in marketshare? They BOGO'd their handsets for the carriers for a quarter or two. Verizon, Sprint and TMobile all are competing not so much against ATT at the moment, but the iPhone, so any new face handset will get extra care and incentives to grow carrier customers, even if they take an initial "loss" on the handset itself.
The first generations of iPhone users were drawn mostly from existing ATT customers who were smartphone users, or marginally interested, and Apple customers. Once that population was saturated, the draw came from international expansion by Apple, and bleed off from other carriers once the reputation of the iPhone was established. Now you have those more hard-core carrier loyalists who have friends with iPhones who are immensely satisfied with them, making them decide between staying with their preferred carrier or get a smartphone that really works well.
What you see mostly in the increasing Android marketshare are continued bleed-off from marginalized handsets by those that want to stay with their current carrier. It has been reported that the whole smartphone marketshare is growing significantly, drawing more people into it from the dumbphone marketshare. This rising tide raises the entire smartphone marketshare, Android included.