7.5M iPhones estimated sold in Q1 2010, users stay in Apple ecosystem
Apple is projected to have sold 7.5 million iPhones in the first three months of 2010, and a new study suggests those users won't be leaving anytime soon, with high retention rates due to the investments many users have made in App Store software.
Analyst Maynard Um with UBS issued a new note to investors Wednesday morning, in which he noted a recent Q-Series survey that found Apple leads the smartphone industry in both mindshare and retention rate. Among respondents, 56 percent said they believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer, and the implied retention rate among a sample of 310 users is 95 percent -- well beyond, Um noted, anything else seen ever in the industry.
"While we believe that this retention can change rapidly, anecdotally during our survey we even received emails from three respondents asking when the next iPhone will be available," the analyst wrote.
A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market. Compare that to those who own a BlackBerry, with 42 percent saying Research in Motion is the best.
In fact, 40 percent of surveyed customers who own Nokia handsets believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer there is. Just 27 percent of users chose their own brand. Nokia smartphone owners were more loyal, but still only 60 percent said Nokia was the best smartphone manufacturer.
Um has raised his iPhone unit estimates for the March 2010 quarter to 7.5 million, up from his original prediction of 7 million. He said checks indicate that there is better-than-expected demand for the iPhone both domestically and internationally.
The report also issued the first estimate from UBS on iPad sales. Um expects Apple to ship 2.1 million in its 2010 fiscal year, growing to 4.6 million in 2011. Apple revealed this week that the new device sold 300,000 in its first day of availability.
"Although we remain bullish on the long term evolution of the iPad into the central console for the home, over the near-/medium-term, until we see more compelling apps to drive mass market adoption, we prefer to be cautious on overall adoption," he said.
Um declined to predict launch day sales, a guess on which some other analysts missed the mark. But Um's "cautious" prediction on first-year iPad sales is still below the predictions of many on Wall Street.
The 12-month price target for AAPL stock from UBS remains unchanged at $280. The firm has also reiterated its recommendation of "buy."
Analyst Maynard Um with UBS issued a new note to investors Wednesday morning, in which he noted a recent Q-Series survey that found Apple leads the smartphone industry in both mindshare and retention rate. Among respondents, 56 percent said they believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer, and the implied retention rate among a sample of 310 users is 95 percent -- well beyond, Um noted, anything else seen ever in the industry.
"While we believe that this retention can change rapidly, anecdotally during our survey we even received emails from three respondents asking when the next iPhone will be available," the analyst wrote.
A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market. Compare that to those who own a BlackBerry, with 42 percent saying Research in Motion is the best.
In fact, 40 percent of surveyed customers who own Nokia handsets believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer there is. Just 27 percent of users chose their own brand. Nokia smartphone owners were more loyal, but still only 60 percent said Nokia was the best smartphone manufacturer.
Um has raised his iPhone unit estimates for the March 2010 quarter to 7.5 million, up from his original prediction of 7 million. He said checks indicate that there is better-than-expected demand for the iPhone both domestically and internationally.
The report also issued the first estimate from UBS on iPad sales. Um expects Apple to ship 2.1 million in its 2010 fiscal year, growing to 4.6 million in 2011. Apple revealed this week that the new device sold 300,000 in its first day of availability.
"Although we remain bullish on the long term evolution of the iPad into the central console for the home, over the near-/medium-term, until we see more compelling apps to drive mass market adoption, we prefer to be cautious on overall adoption," he said.
Um declined to predict launch day sales, a guess on which some other analysts missed the mark. But Um's "cautious" prediction on first-year iPad sales is still below the predictions of many on Wall Street.
The 12-month price target for AAPL stock from UBS remains unchanged at $280. The firm has also reiterated its recommendation of "buy."
Comments
A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market. Compare that to those who own a BlackBerry, with 42 percent saying Research in Motion is the best.
In fact, 40 percent of surveyed customers who own Nokia handsets believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer there is. Just 27 percent of users chose their own brand. Nokia smartphone owners were more loyal, but still only 60 percent said Nokia was the best smartphone manufacturer.
These numbers are very interesting. High customer satisfaction with the iPhone
A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market.
"Best" is pretty loosey-goosey. I wonder what the actual questions and responses were.
Apple is projected to have sold 7.5 million iPhones in the first three months of 2010, and a new study suggests those users won't be leaving anytime soon, with high retention rates due to the investments many users have made in App Store software.
I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.
The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.
ok, my bad
I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.
The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.
Agreed! That is a consideration but it has to be way down on the list. It's the quality of the product that is the main reason for retention.
Once someone gets into the Apple ecosystem, whether it was as in previous years, an iPod or now with the iPhone-they're hooked! Mainly as you say because of the superior product and seemingly constant improvements provided.
Best
in short? NOKIA sucks bigtime!!!
I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.
The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.
I agree. It seems like there is this pervasive attitude among business types that the goal of any business is to lock in customers so that they have no choice but to keep buying your product no matter how cr@ppy it becomes. Therefore, they interpret all of Apple's vertical integration as an attempt at that kind of lock-in. But I really don't see it that way -- Apple's vertical integration is geared towards reducing their costs and making a better product, not at lock-in. I'm sure they don't mind if lock-in is a side effect, but I really don't think that's their primary goal.
I wonder what market share trash Microsoft fans will put out now with these numbers. I notice that's all they seem to think of when talking about Apple or Linux. Gets tiring after a while.
Market share is hardly trash. It is a factor taken into account by every developer when they decide on a new project.
That is why, for example, software and updates generally come out first for Windows, with late and lite versions for OS X.
That is why, for example, few people develop for the Amiga.
Without a big market share, an ecosystem is slow to develop. With a big market share, lots of third parties want to jump onto the bandwagon.
Why do you say that market share is trash?
Once someone gets into the Apple ecosystem, whether it was as in previous years, an iPod or now with the iPhone-they're hooked! Mainly as you say because of the superior product and seemingly constant improvements provided.
Given that most iPods and iPhones are owned by Windows users, I don't see how you could be correct here.
Despite the popularity of the iPhone, OS X has not gained much market share. How do you explain that?
I agree. It seems like there is this pervasive attitude among business types that the goal of any business is to lock in customers so that they have no choice but to keep buying your product no matter how cr@ppy it becomes. Therefore, they interpret all of Apple's vertical integration as an attempt at that kind of lock-in. But I really don't see it that way -- Apple's vertical integration is geared towards reducing their costs and making a better product, not at lock-in. I'm sure they don't mind if lock-in is a side effect, but I really don't think that's their primary goal.
i totally agree with you here, the lock in made by apple is only incidental, simply because they make better and quality product...
but the one who didi play blatanly on this is the NOKIA where they come up year in year out of a new edition of their phone with just a minor improvemetnt from previos variant and then market it as a new model example of which, is today they will release 1 mp camera phone the following year they will release a 2mp phone a slightly improved version of the last, they were so busy doin that and that resulted to their downfall, while they busy themselves churcning out crappy phone every year with minor improvement of the last, apple on the other hand revolutionized how a smartphone should be, and NOKIA woke up and realized that they were lefted behind alreary in smartphone technolgy.
shame on NOKIA !!! they were so greedy milking people that time passed them by.
In my friend's office, I convinced one out of twelve people to drop their Blackberry and switch to an iPhone one year ago.
One year later, seven out of the twelve have iPhones.
Amazing.
Um, these statistics sound like they were just made up.
Always remember folks...
85% of all statistics are made up!
Given that most iPods and iPhones are owned by Windows users, I don't see how you could be correct here.
Despite the popularity of the iPhone, OS X has not gained much market share. How do you explain that?
I think that's probably explained by the fact that the bulk of OS market share is controlled by corporate IT departments, and the way Apple deal with announcing their product pipeline (i.e. they don't!) is always going to make it less likely that companies will switch to OS X.
I can't remember where, but I seem to recall seeing that OS X's share of the home market (i.e. that which the consumers of the iPhone can influence) is gaining ground reasonably well, though I'm prepared to stand corrected by someone who can find numbers suggesting otherwise.
Always remember folks...
85% of all statistics are made up!
76% of people know that.