Week two: Apple stores still finding it tough to keep iPad in stock
Consumers looking for one of Apple's more affordable iPad models may still have trouble finding one at the company's nation retail chain, where the device continues to sell out during its second full week of availability.
A survey of 15 Apple retail stores conducted this week by investment bank J.P. Morgan found that while 11 stores had the 64 model available for purchase, only 4 stores had stock of 16GB and only another 4 had the 32GB model.
"While the sample stores represent a small fraction of the 221 U.S.-based Apple stores, we believe the targeted stores offer a decent barometer given their geographic distribution and importance," said analyst Mark Moskowitz.
For example, stores that were completely selling out of all 3 iPad versions at the time of the analyst's field checks included Palo Alto, Greenwich, CT, and Miami Beach. In contrast, stores that were completely stocked with all 3 models included Chicago, San Francisco, and Kansas City.
Apple is believed to have sold over half a million iPads in less than 10 days. And while Moskowitz believes adoption of the soon-to-ship 3G-equipped models may be lighter than their WiFi counterparts given their higher price points and data plan requirements, he still thinks there could be upside to his iPad unit estimate of 4.8 million units over the first four quarters.
"While the initial excitement could ease, we are surprised by the continued strength in the early stages," he said. "In addition to the new category entry of the iPad, another positive element is that the product?s gross margins are accretive to the corporate model."
In opening up pre-orders for the iPad last month, Apple limited consumers to just two units even if the additional units were being shipped to different individuals across the country. Education customers, especially those ordering through their representatives, weren't hit with the same restriction, however.
But when April 2nd rolled around and regular Apple Store customers began receiving their shipping notifications, a number of those education pre-order customers were being informed that their orders were being placed on the back burner and wouldn't ship to much later in the month.
Instead, Apple chose to stock its retail locations and those of Best Buy, the latter of which sold out during the first weekend the device went on sale. Since then, Apple has slowly expanded distribution to online retailers like MacMall and MacConnection, but is requiring that those resellers only accept orders placed via phone.
For its part, the Apple online store continues to list lead times of 5-7 business days for all new WiFi iPad orders.
A survey of 15 Apple retail stores conducted this week by investment bank J.P. Morgan found that while 11 stores had the 64 model available for purchase, only 4 stores had stock of 16GB and only another 4 had the 32GB model.
"While the sample stores represent a small fraction of the 221 U.S.-based Apple stores, we believe the targeted stores offer a decent barometer given their geographic distribution and importance," said analyst Mark Moskowitz.
For example, stores that were completely selling out of all 3 iPad versions at the time of the analyst's field checks included Palo Alto, Greenwich, CT, and Miami Beach. In contrast, stores that were completely stocked with all 3 models included Chicago, San Francisco, and Kansas City.
Apple is believed to have sold over half a million iPads in less than 10 days. And while Moskowitz believes adoption of the soon-to-ship 3G-equipped models may be lighter than their WiFi counterparts given their higher price points and data plan requirements, he still thinks there could be upside to his iPad unit estimate of 4.8 million units over the first four quarters.
"While the initial excitement could ease, we are surprised by the continued strength in the early stages," he said. "In addition to the new category entry of the iPad, another positive element is that the product?s gross margins are accretive to the corporate model."
In opening up pre-orders for the iPad last month, Apple limited consumers to just two units even if the additional units were being shipped to different individuals across the country. Education customers, especially those ordering through their representatives, weren't hit with the same restriction, however.
But when April 2nd rolled around and regular Apple Store customers began receiving their shipping notifications, a number of those education pre-order customers were being informed that their orders were being placed on the back burner and wouldn't ship to much later in the month.
Instead, Apple chose to stock its retail locations and those of Best Buy, the latter of which sold out during the first weekend the device went on sale. Since then, Apple has slowly expanded distribution to online retailers like MacMall and MacConnection, but is requiring that those resellers only accept orders placed via phone.
For its part, the Apple online store continues to list lead times of 5-7 business days for all new WiFi iPad orders.
Comments
I think analysts will be surprised by how many people are waiting for the 3G model.
I agree!
2 cents for the day...
He who laughs last, laughs hardest!
Here's another waiting for the 3G. And I agree the number of us doing so exceeds that of those buying the WiFi model. I don't find it surprising the 64GB Wifi aren't selling as well. Those who can afford one can afford the $130 extra for 3G & GPS.
I agree and also have a 3G unit on order (64g).
Mentally prepared to let some money go.
Moskowitz believes adoption of the soon-to-ship 3G-equipped models may be lighter than their WiFi counterparts given their higher price points and data plan requirements, he still thinks there could be upside to his iPad unit estimate of 4.8 million units over the first four quarters.
I wonder what his estimate would be if he knew there was no requirement to pay for a data plan.
I think analysts will be surprised by how many people are waiting for the 3G model.
I would think the 3G model will outsell the wifi model. This thing is meant to be connected to the internet all of the time. In the few days I've had a wifi one, there have been at least a half dozen times i was somewhere not connected to the internet when I needed to be. We have a use for one or two that only need wifi, but for us, those will be the exception, not the rule.
Before we got this one, I thought the data plan would be something to turn on for trips, but have quickly seen that I would need it all of the time.
"I need my iPad fix...NOW."
Ed customers could order as many as they wanted to because Apple had no intention of shipping them for the April 3 release. We pre-ordered just like everyone else and yet inside sales reps are still claiming that orders will not be fulfilled until late April or early May.
I think analysts will be surprised by how many people are waiting for the 3G model.
I'm waiting for the 3G, not that I can get the iPad WiFi.
Lets make this simple...
Saturday 300k 1st day (includes pre-orders)
Sunday (Easter not really a 'retail day')
Monday + Tuesday + Wednesday = 150k (making 450k total)
150k / 3 = 50k per day
50k / 24 = 2083 per hour
2083 / 60 = ~35 per minute
Or apx. 1 iPad sold every 2 seconds since the release.
Question is, can that pace continue?
To reach 10m sold in 1 year they need to maintain sales of apx ~1141 per hour at present they are tracking almost twice that AND 3G models AS WELL AS INTERNATIONAL models haven't yet shipped. These numbers are very early in the game so anything is possible but... I'm thinking 10m might not be that big of a stretch.
Posted this in another thread but it's a better fit here... This was in response to last weeks article where Apple announced 450 iPads have sold as of ... Thursday AM west coast time I guess...
Lets make this simple...
Saturday 300k 1st day (includes pre-orders)
Sunday (Easter not really a 'retail day')
Monday + Tuesday + Wednesday = 150k (making 450k total)
150k / 3 = 50k per day
50k / 24 = 2083 per hour
2083 / 60 = ~35 per minute
Or apx. 1 iPad sold every 2 seconds since the release.
Question is, can that pace continue?
To reach 10m sold in 1 year they need to maintain sales of apx ~1141 per hour at present they are tracking almost twice that AND 3G models AS WELL AS INTERNATIONAL models haven't yet shipped. These numbers are very early in the game so anything is possible but... I'm thinking 10m might not be that big of a stretch.
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
Yep major FAIL on that thang. Apple sure blew it. Ain't no demand fer such a dumb dee-vise. Yep That thar HP Slate, n that thar COORIER, n That nice lil ol' WeePad made over thar in Ger-Many.
Yep. Apple.FAIL-FAIL-FAIL-FAIL!
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